The second part of a multi-part series, we take a deep dive into the financials surrounding upcoming free agent Sam Merrill -- what's his market look like, and what will the financial implications be?
For the first part of the series, we broke down the aprons and what all the new CBA means. Take a look -- RCF's Cavs Guide To The Offseason
Part one: Evaluating a new Ty Jerome contract
There's also older contract evaluations -- one of which was close to the contract, and one is to be determined.
Evaluating an Isaac Okoro contract extension
Evaluating a new Caris LeVert contract
If there was a poster for the Cavs developmental program, Sam Merrill is on it.
Having a breakout year at age 27 as a fourth-year NBA’er is not the most common path but every player has their own developmental pace. For Merrill, it was better late than never.
Merrill could always shoot but just always needed a chance. At Utah State, he was a four year player and finished 2nd in school history in points, 2nd in three-pointers made, 2nd in three-pointers attempted, 2nd in minutes played, 4th in games played, 4th in games started and 9th in 3P% (42%). Not too shabby.
His shot interested teams, but his age, athleticism and size deterred them. He went off the board with the very last pick in the 2020 Draft.
Shortly after being drafted by the Pelicans, he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Jrue Holiday trade. Don’t feel too bad for Merrill though – he has a 2021 NBA Finals ring to commiserate with. So it worked out well in the short-term.
Fast forward two years later, Merrill went from being the last pick in the NBA Draft to the first pick in the G-League Draft to the Cleveland Charge.
At that point, Merrill was on his fifth team in three years. Young players can bounce around before they find the right place and right opportunity, and Cleveland proved to be just that.
It only took 22 G-League games for Merrill to get the call-up to Cleveland and after a 10-day contract, he was signed to an end-of-year, multi-year deal Koby Altman special. In a move that has become a staple of Altman’s tenure, it’s produced many success stories like Dean Wade, Craig Porter Jr and Lamar Stevens.
While Merrill only averaged 8 and 7.2 points per game over the last two season, he’s made lasting impressions on two different coaching staffs who ended up playing him over other highly drafted options.
With JB Bickerstaff, Merrill’s shot made him hard to keep on the bench. He shot 40% on 5.8 3PA in 17.5 minutes per game over 61 games. In the 2023-2024 season, he broke a franchise record for most bench three-pointers in a season with 143.
With Kenny Atkinson, Merrill took a step back offensively but was a trusted rotational player because of his defense. His defensive on/off was 80th percentile defensively showing the integral role he played in team defense despite being a subpar athlete with less than stellar measurables. While Merrill ranked just 55th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, he was 93rd in ball screen navigation, 100th percentile in off-ball chase defense and 94th percentile in help effectiveness rating. Get him on the ball, and he could hold up. Get him off the ball and he was attentive and active.
Merrill’s shot is and has always been the reason he’ll get paid. He took a step back this year going from 40.2% 3P to 37.2% on 2.4 less 3PA per 36 minutes than but playable high volume, highly accurate shooters are always in demand.
His corner 3’s accuracy went from 89th percentile to 58th percentile and his non-corner 3s went from 78th percentile to 59th percentile but that didn’t stop teams from having to worry about Merril. His off-ball gravity, or the attention an offensive player commands from the defense while off the ball, was still 81st percentile. His quick release, range and willingness to let it fly kept defenses honest. Even if he wasn’t hitting shots, teams still had to worry about him and that was valuable for offensive space to operate.
Merrill may get branded as just a shooter, but his offensive game showed a bit more this year that enables. His AST% was down from a career high 14.1% the year prior but he’s always been a player willing to keep the ball moving when he doesn’t have a look. And even dating back to college, he’s always been an extremely low turnover player – a career 6.4% TOV rate.
Interestingly enough, while his perimeter shooting took a dip, and accounted or 86.8% of his shot attempts, he saw a huge spike on his effectiveness inside the arc. His 2P% jumped from 38.5% to 62.5% as did his rim effectiveness going from 47% to 72% (83rd percentile!). Now only having 56 2PA can lead to significant variance spikes but the noticeable different inside the arc will only serve him well moving forward if he can keep it up.
It usually goes both ways but it’s equally as true: A shot will get you a chance, but defense will keep giving you those chances.
Merrill has and will always be a significant offensive threat but the jump his defense took this year was significant.
Somehow a 6’5, average athletic guard played a significant number of minutes at the SF spot and held up well. The team was 83rd percentile defensively in his SF minutes and even going back to 2023-2024 they were 76th percentile in Merrill’s SF minutes. Playing good enough defense with that shot provided more opportunities to fit him into different lineups without being exposed.
This is the first year he posted a positive defensive box-plus minus (DBPM) and is also what makes his profile so unique. For all of the player profile comparisons for his contractual comparisons, none of them posted a positive DBPM in their contract year. It’s why it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Merrill get a bigger deal then some expect. For as good of a shooter as he is, he actually was just as effective defensively this year. His Crafted Offensive Plus Minus was 77th percentile and his Crafted Defense Plus Minus was 67th percentile – pretty balanced!
Merrill isn’t going to be a disruptive defender – his career steal rate is below 1.5%, his block rate is a minuscule 0.6% and his defensive rebounding is sub-10%. But what he lacks in disruptiveness he makes up in dependability. Players and coaches alike like players they know will do their job and count on them to be in the right spots at the right times.
They also like guys who are willing to put their bodies on the line – Merrill finished 20th in total charges this year, right after a guy named LeBron James.
Another fun stat: His total deflections was on-par with Jalen Johnson, Peyton Watson and Ryan Dunn in a similar number of minutes and more than Miles Bridges, Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins in less minutes.
Merrill went from a guy who teams may have tried to hide to someone who Kenny trusted to be used a stopper. By nature of being a guard, they’re prone to guard more on-ball player archetypes but Merrill’s 2nd and 3rd most guarded archetypes were shot creators and primary ball-handlers. His most guarded matchup in the playoffs this year was Tyler Herro and Tyrese Haliburton was 5th – far from someone you put on a shooter to hide in the quarter, Merrill was involved in the action early and often.
So where does this leave Merrill with the Cavs?
It depends.
The Cavs are facing a significant tax bill, and every dollar will count more the higher they climb into the tax. They won’t keep everybody and must figure out how they want to allocate the finite dollars under the 2nd Apron.
The good news is the Cavs do have Merrill’s full bird rights meaning they can go over the cap to re-sign him and are not restricted to what they can pay him like they are Ty Jerome. They can also offer a maximum of 8% raises which is more than other teams can offer.
The question with any player entering free agency is how replaceable are they?
Merrill’s shot skill is elite, and his defense makes him a very playable player. But… he will be 29 next season, the Cavs drafted Jaylon Tyson in the 1st round last year, still have Isaac Okoro on the roster (for now) and have two legit starting options at SF next year (De’Andre Hunter and Max Strus). There must be some give and take and given Merrill’s a free agent at this point it likely will be an opportunity for another team to take him.
Trying to find contractual comparisons for Merrill was easy but hard at the same time. Shooting is always a valued skill so there’s always shooting specialists cycling in and out the league but trying to find specialists who shoot as many 3s at such a high rate while also being fairly impactful overall and a plus on the defensive end is harder than it looks.
Oddly enough, the closest contractual comparison for Merrill over the last 10+ free agent periods provided to be Svi Mykhailiuk. (He has a non-guaranteed contract and could find himself on the free agent market – a cheaper Merrill replacement, maybe?)
Mykhailiuk received a 4 year, $15M (2.49% of 1st year cap) deal last offseason that was disguised as a 1 year, $3.5M deal with options after year 1, and year 3. Merrill likely gets more security than Svi did, but the total value wouldn’t be a surprise at all.
The other closest comparable will not inspire confidence for Merrill’s agent: Langston Galloway and Bryn Forbes. Galloway had a quick pop and never did much outside a good year or two, but Forbes had earned Greg Popovich’s trust before ushering himself out of the league with off-court conduct.
But Forbes is the type of measurable deficient player with an elite skill that will always earn him a spot. Merrill was able to do some things better than Forbes, but his shot is close. Forbes earned a one-year, $4.5M which once again is close to the AVV of Mykhailiuk’s deal.
The rest of the class provided some similar profiles, but it was hard finding such a high volume, efficient three-pointer shooter with a positive defensive profile. However, that groups average AAV was 5% of the salary cap which projects to be in the $8M-$9M range next year.
There were a few players that popped for large deals – Seth Curry and E’Twaun Moore (once upon a time). There were also quite a few one-year, prove it deals as teams typically don’t invest heavily into one trick ponies.
The one outlier is every short, white, shooter’s Michael Jordan – and that is JJ Redick. Just like Wes Welker did for slot receivers in the NFL, so did JJ Redick did for small, white shooters in the NBA. Redick offered far more in the way of shot creation and passing than Merrill did and it shows in his contract (11% of the salary cap of his first-year deal at the same age as Merrill). It’s unlikely Merrill reaches that threshold, but John Hollinger did just come out with his annual contractual value rating for Merrill at $10M.
But, enough with the banter… Let’s dive into the numbers.
The Comp
The Closest Comps
The Best of the Rest
The GOAT
So where does that leave Merrill’s projected figures?The Closest Comps
The Best of the Rest
The GOAT
In both cases, a two-year deal was average for where the players landed although you'll see that's a result of good amount of players on either extreme -- one year deals and four-year deals. Either way, given Merrill's shot track record, age and skillset, a short-term deal does make sense even though Merrill is likely looking at this as his best chance to cash in.
We used the average first year salary cap percentage of the closest comps group, with an annual raise of 8%, to get to a 2-year, $8.5M deal on that end. On the other end if his contract were to be the average of the best of the rest group, with 8% raises, it would look like a 2 year, $17.6M deal due to the average of that group being 5% of the cap in their first year deals.
The overall consensus put Merrill in the two-year contract range with an AAV of $5.3M. With Chris Fedor reporting the Cavs expect Merrill to receive interest in the $4M-$6M range, it makes sense.
Using the average length of Merrill’s comparables and the average first year salary cap percentage of their deal with a maximum of 8% raises (the most the Cavs can offer), here’s where it gets you.
The Closest Comps
The Best of the Rest
The Best of the Rest
Will Merrill see that type of money?
Spotrac has Merrill as their 18th best SG in the class. In last year’s class, Evan Fournier was 18th and ended up in Europe. Josh Okogie was 17th and earned a 2 year, $16M deal (largely inflated to be traded) while Justin Holiday was 19th and earned a 1-year, veteran minimum.
John Hollinger has Merrill as his 9th best SG in the class. In his rankings last year, Josh Okogie was 9th (see above for contract). Talen Horton-Tucker was 8th and received a 1-year, veteran minimum deal. Gary Harrison was 10th best and received a 2-year, $15M deal (with a team option in year 2).
It’s far from scientific but it shows the wide range that Merrill sits within.
Merrill is one of the Cavs success stories. Altman talked about their ability to develop at end of season press conference, and explained the other side of success stories.
Koby Altman said:
The Miami Heat have done it just as good as anyone else has – develop players to get them paid elsewhere. The Cavs were that elsewhere with Max Strus a few offseason ago, and now the Cavs might be on the other side of that elsewhere for Sam Merrill this offseason.
Last edited: