
The second part of a multi-part series, we take a deep dive into the financials surrounding upcoming free agent Caris LeVert -- what's his market look like, and what will the financial implications be? For the first part of the series, we broke down the Cavs financial future and what all the new CBA means. Take a look -- Cavs Financial Future: The Guide to Sustained Success.
Part one: Evaluating a new Caris LeVert contract
All it takes is the right coach, right situation.
The sentiment is more prevalent than ever as the NFL playoffs roll on, and so does the NFL coaching cycle. Teams are hiring based on the “right” fit with their franchise quarterback – either looking to resurrect previous glory or ensure their newly minted franchise savior is in good hands. We hear so much about Andy Reid being the perfect coach for Patrick Mahomes; or Josh Allen needing the right coaching to truly blossom; or Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury being a match made in heaven.
One doesn’t happen without the other but when they sync up it’s like poetry. Enter Ty Jerome and the Point Guard Whisperer.
Kenny Atkinson knows a thing or two about the position – he played collegiately at Richmond and parlayed that into a decade long career being a European nomad bouncing from Italy to France to Germany to Spain and to the Netherlands. He had tryouts with NBA teams but never did make it.
His path to the NBA was coaching, not playing. He first latched on to Mike D’Antoni’s staff in New York from 2008 to 2012 after spending a year with him in Houston in 2007. If 2011 and 2012 New York basketball doesn’t stir up any memories, we’re disappointed. On those staffs, Kenny played a key role in a thing called “Linsanity”.
From there, he transitioned to Atlanta from 2012 to 2016 to further his offensive philosophies under Mike Budenholzer. While there, Jeff Teague made his only All-Star game in 2014-2015 and called Kenny, “My guy!”
In 2016 he got his first head coaching gig with Brooklyn and proceeded to coach D’Angelo Russell to his only All-Star game in 2018 which is also the same year he took a little-known Spencer Dinwiddie and turned him loose.
From there, we know where Kenny’s path leads… to graduate degree in coaching in Golden State under Steve Kerr and then eventually to Cleveland. Ironically, it’s the same path as Ty Jerome. And this article is about him, isn’t it?
Jerome’s path had a somewhat similar, unconventional route to where he is today.
A four-star recruit of high school, about a 20-minute car ride between his hometown and Donovan Mitchell’s, Jerome committed to University of Virginia. Jerome started out as a backup to one-time Cleveland Cavalier London Perrantes. He went on to become a starting point guard his sophomore and junior year. From there, he parlayed a title winning junior year with Virginia into a draft declaration and eventual first round pick. But even that came with a winding journey – drafted by Philadelphia at 24, later traded to Boston and then traded to Phoenix on draft night.
Jerome’s first year in Phoenix started off on the wrong foot, or ankle, as he sprained his ankle at the beginning of the year that sidelined him indefinitely – sound familiar? His delayed started would limit him to just 31 games his rookie year and middling numbers (33.6%/28%/75% splits and a 7.9 PER).
His stint in Phoenix didn’t last too long as he was traded to Oklahoma City just a year after his NBA debut with Phoenix. In Oklahoma City, he would get a few chances, and perform better, but injuries (season ending groin surgery) and inconsistent efficiency (13.4 PER + 58.5% TS% his first year in OKC then 11.3 PER + 48.8% TS% in his second year) would make it difficult to stake a plot in OKC’s team rebuilding. The Thunder also had other guards in Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Theo Maledon and Tre Mann, and Jerome’s fit was in question given his rookie contract was coming to an end.
Most players have an introduction to the business side of the NBA at some point, and some do sooner rather than later. Jerome was introduced right away on draft night but getting traded after your rookie year in a deal for Chris Paul only to be traded two years later for a nothing burger to be waived is a real realization that it’s hard to make it in the NBA and opportunities are fleeting.
One can imagine there’s worry and panic that comes with starting over. In a matter of three years Jerome went from being a first-round pick, to traded (technically) four times to cut. That path is not dissimilar from Kenny. In a matter of five years, Kenny coached for four different teams, went from highly touted assistant to scapegoat of a failed super team, and had a head coaching gig going well only to end back up at the end of the bench.
Remember: Right coach, right situation.
Atkinson got to Golden State a year before Jerome did but spent the 2022-2023 with him where Jerome was working to rebuild his value. He signed with the Warriors in preseason and ended up on a two-way contract with the Golden State G-League affiliate.
Jerome wasn’t part of the initial rotation but due to some injuries Steve Kerr gave him a shot and he took hold of it. Included in that was a season-best 22 point, 8 assist, 1 steal, 41 minute win in Cleveland with a shorthanded Warrior team. Jerome would finish the season with 48.8%/38.9%/92.7% splits on a 12.8 PER with a .124 win shares per 48 minutes (Sam Merrill is at .125 WS/48 this year for reference).
In Golden State, under the guidance of the point guard whisperer himself, Jerome would rebuild his value and reignite the intrigue of his college profile in being a tall, efficient, good shooting, slick passing guard with moxy. He did enough to capture the attention of Cavs President of Basketball Operations Koby Altman who also had a friendship with Jerome extending back before their time in Cleveland.
But of course, the two steps forward, one step back part of Jerome’s career would extend to Cleveland upon signing a 2-year, $5M deal in the offseason. Just two games into his Cavalier career, he would suffer an ankle injury that would sideline him for the rest of the year.
About that coach, and situation…
Fortuitously enough, Atkinson would end up reuniting with Jerome in Cleveland in a contract year after the Cavs made their well-known coaching change. If there was ever a coach and ever a situation for Jerome to rebuild his career, it was with Kenny.
Point guard whisperer may be a bit light these days considering the resurrection of Darius Garland and ascension of Jerome. Maybe Point guard savant? Point guard rain man?
It might be a bit hyperbolic to say Jerome’s season this year came out of nowhere but it kind of did. It’s not only his winding journey to this point but it’s the level of production with combined with being on three teams and playing under 3,000 career minutes before coming to the Cavs.
This type of current production matched with the lack of a resume made it hard to find proper historical comparisons when trying to align a fair salary evaluation.
To put into context the type of season Jerome is having, these are the names associated with seasons of > 24% AST%, > 20% USG, > 2% STL%, > 40% 3P%, > 18 PER and > .2 WS/48: Steph Curry (five times), John Stockton, Chauncey Billups, Kevin Johnson, Manu Ginobli, Chris Paul (twice), Kyle Lowry, Jameer Nelson and Mike Conley.
Those players are stars, superstars, Hall-of-Famers and starters, not a career journeyman coming off the bench and producing the way he is on a $2.5M contract.
Jerome’s efficiency has added to an already valuable skillset – size and defense. His 63.3% true shooting percentage (a metric that factors in three-point, two-point and free-throw shooting into one) is a career high. He’s a hair short of the 50/40/90 club at 50.3%/42.3%/88.4% which is something every point guard aspires to do (especially since Jerome’s childhood idol Steve Nash popularized it).
Jerome’s efficiency extends to not only being efficient in how he uses his possessions but using more possessions than ever before and keeping his turnover rate down. Jerome’s usage percentage (how many possessions does a player use on the floor, or aka how well can he create with the ball) is 22.4% (career high) while keeping his turnover rate of 12.3% in line with his 11.5% career average. At times you’ll see players mistakes rise as they use more possessions, but Jerome has managed to keep his mistake rate at the same level while significantly increasing how much he has the ball in his hands.
In an offense where the emphasis is on drive and kicks, and playing off each other, Jerome’s secondary playmaking has been a welcomed addition. The Cavs are top 4 in drives per game, passes out of drives and frequency of plays with a pick-and-roll ball handler. So when Jerome is 94th percentile in pick-and-roll creation rate and 87th percentile in points per shot in pick-and-roll ball handler possessions within the Bball Index database over the last decade, you can see how the two have worked in harmony.
The part of Jerome’s game some people may not have saw coming was his ability to cause chaos defensively. He’s got size for a point guard (6’4.25 without shoes) but shorter arms (6’4” wingspan – ideally height is not greater than arm length) and moves well but not exceptionally laterally. But despite that, his active hands and instincts have led to an incredibly impactful, and opportunistic defender. His 3.2% steal percentage is a career high and a team high. To put it into perspective: While he doesn’t have the minutes to qualify, his steal percentage would be tied for third best in the league with Kris Dunn, and just a percentage point behind Dejounte Murray.
Causing chaos is more than just steals as CraftedNBA lists him as a 98th percentile in deflections, and Jerome is first on the Cavs in deflections per 48 minutes at 6. This has also translated to an overall more impactful defender to the extent of being in the 84th percentile of defensive estimated plus-minus and 92nd percentile of Bball-Index’s defensive playmaker rating.
In putting it all together you have a guy shooting like Darius Garland, passing like Mike Conley, creating like Bradley Beal and defending like Kris Dunn all within just 40 games and likely playing the most games in a single season of his NBA career. Value that.
The question teams will have to decide is if they value him based on production or pedigree. Pedigree means comparing him to other players who have had similar career paths and overall low minute profiles. Production means comparing him more to other players who have produced similar in a year leading up free agency.
With pedigree comes a safer bet – guys more in line with Jerome’s career path got paid at a lower market rate because teams don’t have as much data to feel comfortable extending themselves too far out over their feet. With production comes a risker bet – guys are more in line with Jerome’s season production got paid at a higher market rate because of the elite level production but the other test cases have years of historical to lower the fluke probability – Jerome doesn’t have that.
Through it all, there is one player who is a near identical fit at the intersection of pedigree and production: Cam Payne.
Payne had a rather fortuitous journey himself. He made a name for himself at Murray State before Ja Morant took it up a notch years later. He was a first-round pick but was plagued by injury in Oklahoma City and was traded a year and a half after being a lottery pick. From there, he bounced between Chicago and its G-League team never really finding his footing. That led to 10-day contracts with the Cavs, playing in China, and going back to the G-League. But then, he found his footing with the Phoenix Suns where it was right coach, right situation with Monty Williams. Payne signed a two-year deal and took off in his second year with the Suns. He finished with a 48.4%/44%/89.3% shooting line while having an assist rate of 28%, usage rate of 19.8%, turnover rate of 12.5%, steal rate of 1.6%, wine shares per 48 of .158 and PER of 17.4. All comparable to Jerome this year.
The Suns were able to afford to keep Payne after an NBA Finals run (is this foretelling?) on a three-year deal. Will the Cavs be able to afford the same?
There’s been concern if the Cavs can afford to pay Jerome because they only carry his early bird rights. Bob Schmidt over at Fear the ‘Fro had a fantastic, concise, clear breakdown earlier in the year when Jerome mania first broke out. Here’s how it breaks down.
Full bird rights allow a team to go above the salary cap to keep a player at any rate. Early bird rights allow a team to go above the salary cap to keep a player at a certain rate. The Cavs have full bird rights on Caris LeVert because he has been with the team for three years without leaving in free agency. The Cavs have early bird rights with Jerome because he has played with the Cavs for two years without leaving in free agency.
Early bird rights allow teams to pay either 175% of his previous salary (which would be $4.375M AAV) OR 104.5 percent of the average league salary (which is estimated to be $11.475M AAV) – whichever is greater.
So, while this provides the Cavs flexibility to retain Jerome at a high rate they could face an Isaiah Hartenstein type situation this offseason. The Knicks had early bird rights on Hartenstein, so they could only retain him at a certain rate (104.5% of previous league average salary). The Thunder knew this, had cap space, and swooped in far above anything the Knicks could offer.
Currently, the only free agency exception higher than the max the Cavs could pay next year ($11.4M) is the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (NTMLE) at $14.1M. Otherwise, teams would have to have cap space. Two teams have the straight away cap space to sign him: the Nets and Wizards. Two teams could have cap space but may just have the NTMLE: the Hornets and Jazz. And 10 teams could have the NTMLE: Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies, Thunder, Blazers, Spurs and Raptors.
Without breaking down team by team the biggest threats are undoubtedly the Nets and Wizards. Both teams have more than enough cap space to sign Jerome, and then some, and have a need for a point guard.
The Pistons and Spurs all could be sleeper teams offering him slightly more money than the Cavs and more playing time while maintaining a level of competitiveness.
Meanwhile, the Blazers and Bulls could offer a similar amount of money and more playing time but not the same level of competitiveness.
The free agent point guard market does not figure to be a particularly strong one. There will could be high end potential free agents in Fred VanVleet and Kyrie Irving followed by the enigma that is D’Angelo Russell and host of either chronically injured (Lonzo Ball, Malcolm Brogdon, Gary Payton III, Ben Simmons, Dante Exum), old (Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, Patty Mills) or just average (Jevon Carter, Davion Mitchell, Aaron Holliday, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Payne, and Delon Wright) players. Jerome might fall into the category of young, productive and somewhat intriguing along with Monte Morris, Tre Jones and Tyus Jones – all of whom will be competing for the same deals.
But, in short: Yes, teams do have money to out pay the Cavs and yes, there is likely to be a market for his services.
So, what does the market say Jerome is worth?
In evaluating the market, as mentioned before, we broke it into two groups: Pedigree and Production. Factoring in players with similar pedigree before hitting free agency and then factoring in players with more similar production before hitting free agency.
We used a myriad of defining play characteristics to filter point guards who were most like Jerome’s skillset, impact level and age. The minutes were a total of all minutes player prior to hitting free agency while the stats were stats compiled in their contract year. There is how old they would be in the first year of their new deal.
For reference, here is Jerome:
Age | Minutes | PER | WS/48 | 3P% | AST% | USG% | STL% | ||||
Ty Jerome | 28 | 2748 | 20.7 | 0.208 | 41.20% | 26.30% | 22.40% | 3.30% |
And here are the pedigree comparisons:
Avg Over Deal | Career Total Prior to FA | Season Prior To FA | |||||||||
Player | Cap % | AAV | Deal Length | Age | Minutes | PER | WS/48 | 3P% | AST% | USG% | STL% |
Raul Neto | 2.04% | 2.2M | 2 | 26 | 2343 | 11.9 | 0.086 | 40.40% | 23% | 18.30% | 1.30% |
Cam Payne | 5.13% | 6.33M | 3 | 27 | 3716 | 17.4 | 0.158 | 44% | 28.10% | 19.80% | 1.60% |
Monte Morris | 7.58% | 9.25M | 3 | 26 | 4827 | 14 | 0.115 | 39.50% | 17.10% | 16.50% | 1.40% |
Delon Wright | 8.17% | 9.35M | 3 | 27 | 3807 | 15.5 | 0.121 | 29.80% | 21.60% | 18.10% | 2.50% |
Devonte Graham | 9.25% | 11.82M | 3 | 26 | 4546 | 14.6 | 0.099 | 37.50% | 26.30% | 21.40% | 1.40% |
Matthew Dellavedova | 9.53% | 9.6M | 4 | 26 | 4518 | 11.3 | 0.098 | 41% | 26.20% | 15.90% | 1.20% |
6.95% | 8.1M | 3 | 26 | 3959.5 | 14.1 | 0.113 | 39% | 23.72% | 18.33% | 1.57% |
Funny enough, you’ll see three former Cavaliers on the list: Neto, Payne and Dellavedova. These are all players with less than five thousand career minutes prior to hitting free agency but had a somewhat similar statistical profile to Jerome. As you can see, Jerome’s metrics far surpass many of these players and there is no exact match. Which gets back to the point it’s hard to find someone who has been this good without any prior data of being this good.
And here are the production comparisons:
Avg Over Deal | Career Total Prior to FA | Season Prior To FA | |||||||||
Player | Cap % | AAV | Deal Length | Age | Minutes (prior to) | PER | WS/48 | 3P% | AST% | USG% | STL% |
Ramon Sessions | 6.35% | $6M | 2 | 30 | 14,556 | 15.9 | 0.109 | 32.40% | 22% | 21.80% | 1.30% |
TJ McConnell | 6.56% | $9.25M | 4 | 29 | 10,037 | 16.9 | 0.128 | 31.30% | 34.3%% | 15.30% | 3.40% |
Derrick Rose | 6.87% | $7.5M | 2 | 31 | 18,104 | 19.5 | 0.102 | 37% | 26.40% | 27.30% | 1.10% |
DJ Augustin | 7.19% | $7.25M | 4 | 29 | 13852 | 13.9 | 0.106 | 40.50% | 25.30% | 18% | 1.60% |
Tyus Jones | 11.21% | $14.5M | 2 | 26 | 8377 | 16.5 | 0.158 | 39% | 28.20% | 16.60% | 2% |
Patty Mills | 11.49% | $12M | 4 | 29 | 7482 | 15.2 | 0.139 | 41.40% | 24.30% | 19.50% | 1.90% |
| 8.28% | $9.41M | 3 | 29 | 12068 | 16.3 | 0.124 | 36.93% | 25.24% | 19.75% | 1.88% |
The level of role player is elevated a bit here: there is a mixture of undrafted guys, first round picks and former franchise players. But all share the common characteristics of Jerome’s production while doing so with a strong prior history of playing in the NBA.
To take it one step further, here are production comparisons on the very high-end knowing Jerome is not this level of player but has produced like this level of player (halfway through the season):
Avg Over Deal | Career Total Prior to FA | Season Prior To FA | |||||||||
Goran Dragic | 18.11% | $17M | 5 | 29 | 13,045 | 17.4 | 0.123 | 34.70% | 22.80% | 21.80% | 1.5 |
Jeff Teague | 18.41% | $19M | 3 | 29 | 16,175 | 19.2 | 0.146 | 35.70% | 36.40% | 22.10% | 1.9 |
18.26% | $18M | 4 | 29 | 14,610 | 18.3 | 0.135 | 35.20% | 29.60% | 21.95% | 1.70% |
The dynamic of how Jerome negotiations will go is predictable: The Cavs will side more on the pedigree, arguing you can pay him for how he’s played this year, but you must factor in the lack of prior production. While the agent will side more on the side of production, arguing what Jerome has done deserves to be recognized monetarily. And truthfully, neither are necessarily wrong.
From these historical comparisons we can pull projected contractual values knowing the closest comparison (Payne), the pedigree comparison and the production comparison. Given all three situations averaged three year contracts, we’ll factor that in and this is what you get:
Probable - 3 years, $26.2M / $8.75M AAV | |||
Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Cap % | |
Year 1 | $7,933,391 | $154,647,000 | 5.13% |
Year 2 | $8,726,745 | $170,112,000 | 5.13% |
Year 3 | $9,599,409 | $187,123,000 | 5.13% |
Pedigree - 3 years, $35.5M / $11.85M AAV | |||
Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Cap % | |
Year 1 | $10,747,966 | $154,647,000 | 6.95% |
Year 2 | $11,822,784 | $170,112,000 | 6.95% |
Year 3 | $13,005,048 | $187,123,000 | 6.95% |
Production - 3 years, $42.3M / $14.1M AAV | |||
Salary by year | Salary cap by year | Cap % | |
Year 1 | $12,804,771 | $154,647,000 | 8.28% |
Year 2 | $14,085,273 | $170,112,000 | 8.28% |
Year 3 | $15,493,784 | $187,123,000 | 8.28% |
Now remember back to what the Cavs can offer Jerome: 175% of his previous salary ($4.375M AAV) OR 104.5 percent of the average league salary (approximately $11.475M AAV).
If a team wishes to base his value on comparative production for the season he had, Jerome could field full NTMLE offers, and it be completely justified. If he did, there is nothing the Cavs could do.
But, it gets back to the first point of the article: Right coach, right situation.
Jerome is currently on his fourth team and fifth coach in six years – how much more change does he want to endure? And how much risk (or difference in money) is it worth going out into a new environment and leaving a known, productive fit?
The Cavs certainly hold an inside edge with Jerome. They have a coach who believes in him and has produced with him. They have a close childhood friend in Donovan Mitchell who has known him since he was a kid (and is now locked up long-term). They have a President of Basketball Operations who had tried to acquire him several times before and has a personal relationship with him. That’s not even factoring in the core and competitiveness that Cleveland provides.
The fear of Jerome leaving may have subsided some after he cooled off from his original torrid start but it’s still a real fear. Jerome is a productive player, at the right age and hitting the market when there will be teams that can pay more than the Cavs. But the Cavs do have the influences to remind him the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
The x-factor in this all is what do the Cavs want to pay with respect to their future cap position?
Even though LeVert, Jerome and Sam Merrill will be free agents this offseason, the Cavs will most likely be a second apron team next year. They are at $192M in committed salaries for 10 players. That puts them $3M below the first apron and $15M below the second apron. Given they need to sign at least four more players to hit the 14-player roster size threshold, the second apron is unavoidable. This is why the likelihood of the Cavs keeping their players is strong because they won’t have the financial power in free agency to replace them and will likely retain their salaries to keep them on the roster or use them in a trade later.
As we got into the Caris LeVert free agent profile: There can only be so many double digit AAV players on a team. If the Cavs retain LeVert, it will be seven. If the Cavs retain Jerome on a double digit AAV deal, it would be eight. The teams with the highest salary cap allocations next year will have the following double digit AAV players: 6, 6, 4, 8, 6. Expand that to the top-10 teams: 7, 5, 7, 6. As you can see, retaining eight double-digit AAV players is rare because it’s hard to balance a highly paid core along with a suitable bench while supporting that many highly paid players.
If you’re interested in what that would look like with respect to the Cavs future books, we’ll present two scenarios: the probable (Cam Payne deal) and the production (the higher end salary projection).
In either scenario the same story is told: the Cavs will be a second apron team.
While there may be more willingness to go into the second apron knowing it is somewhat unavoidable there is also to be consideration for how far they go into the second apron knowing they will be taxed at a higher rate the further they go.
Every dollar the Cavs spend moving forward will be scrutinized because it comes more consequences not only financially but flexibility. We dove into what that all means earlier but it’s important to note in Jerome and in really any future acquisition: The discussion is just as much about the player as it is about the finances.
Luckily for the Cavs, Jerome has made it a conversation worth having.