Future Roster - Trade Needs

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petes999

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Sorry for being long-winded ... but the future looks bright if we focus on 2-3 infield/outfield holes, a catcher, and maybe 1-2 pitchers in returns next week or next offseason versus one report that we will need 2 pitchers, 1 infield & 1 outfield for a Clevinger (and assume same for Lindor). And, most importantly, we need to focus on quality returns not quantity filler (not the 15-25 rank prospects that other fans want to give us). Let me explain.

I wanted to see where the Indians are heading and look forward a bit as next year (2021) will start to get interesting with Rule 5.

Our Rule 5 players –

Past due – Oviedo, O Gonzalez, Fermin, Juan Mota, F Perez, Siri, Angelo, Gose, Tom, Dowdy, Martinez (maybe we pick-up a reliever or two from this list like Gose or Mota/Siri/Perez)

2020 – Jones, Clement, Morgan, Nelson, M Gonzales, Burgos, Vargas, Benson

2021 – Valera, Bracho, Freeman, Rocchio, Sandlin, Scott, Broom, Palacios, Tena, Noel, Planez, Holmes, Rodriquez (OF), Lavastida, Diaz, Nova

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How things can play out for 2022 on our 40 man are (assuming Lindor/Clev trade in 2020/21) and Hand/Santana gone by then.

Starters (pick 10 out of 13) – Beiber (2025 FA), Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, Carrasco (23 option), Reserves in AAA- Clevenger Trade Candidate, Allen (if not out of options), Moss, Morgan, Hentges, Oviedo and/or Vargas/Burgos (Plutko gone)

Relievers (10 out of 12 plus other FA type non-roster adds we have every year) – Karinchak, Clase, Hill, Mejia, Whitgren (FA after 22), Maton, Gose, Cimber, Rodriquez with Nelson, Sandlin, Scott waiting in AAA (assume Leone and Wood are gone, maybe Cimber)

Infield (6 out of 7) – Bradley (1B/DH), Ramirez (22/23 Opt), Freeman (at 2nd or SS), Lindor trade Candidate at SS, Jones (3B or 1B), Clement and Chang

Outfield/DH (6) – Need 2 more with a Lindor/Clevinger Trades, plus we have Reyes (25 FA), then pick 3 of Naquin, Johnson, Mercado, Luplow and Benson to fill in rest of OF (assume Zimmer, Allen, D Santana are cut by then and DeShields gone after 2021).

Catcher – (2) Perez (21/22 option) and Lavastida/Diaz or someone else till Naylor

Newly added to 40 in 2021 but not ready to play in 2022 (6) – Valera, Brachio, Rocchio, Tena, possible Palacios, Planez, …

Plus, we will have Espino, Hankin, Torres, Burns, Naylor, Gaddis, Delgado, Sanquintin and G Rodriquez and others getting closer and not that many people leaving after 2022 until 2025 (Perez after 2022, Ramirez after 2023, Cookie after 2022/23, Whitgren after 2022, Naquin after 2022) . And, by then, we will have prospects that burn out or do not cut it like a Allen, Chang, Plutko, ... but solid draft classes and international signs to fill the slots.

Not much room for anyone else to add via trade filler and this assumes we just get 4 people back (in 40 man projection above) from Lindor/Clevenger and possibly a little from Santana/Hand (assuming SP, SS, 2 OF also could use intrim-catcher). This also assumes no FAs to fill holes while getting rid of another $50-60 million in salary reduction (for Lindor, Hand, Santana, Hernandez and Clevinger). This means roster spaces will be a premium going forward ... no more waiting on OFs to develop.

Flow of players --
This season-end year-end cuts (5 to 7) – Hernandez (FA), Leon (FA), Leone (cut?), Freeman (been done before), Bauers – so 5 for sure maybe Hand ($10 mill option w $1 mill buyout), Domingo Santana (dump option) or Zimmer/Allen

2021 key adds (5 to 8) – Clase (suspension), Gose, Jones, Clement, Morgan, Oviedo(?), Vargas(?), Burgos(?) –plus we need a backup catcher (or resign Leon).

We also have flexibility to make other cuts can be Luplow, Plutko, Zimmer, Cimber, etc (especially if we add better players in trades).

After 2021, key losses (4) – C Santana, DeShields, Plutko (no more room for mediocrity), Lindor (if not traded)

Need to add at least (6-10) – Valera, Rocchio, Bracho, Tena, Freeman, Planez, Sandlin(?), Scott(?), Broom(?), Diaz(?) …

Thus, why take filler type players when trading Lindor, Clevinger, Hand or Santana with 3 for 1 type trades. Unlike Gomes where we got Rodriquez and Johnson who had to be added to 40 man (within the year), the offers better be big impact or go home. And, even 5-1 Bauer trade, we got Reyes, Puig as immediate help but Allen and Moss as prospects … will those type players beat out our pitchers next year in Oviedo/Morgan/Vargas for roster spots (it maybe a little upgrade but is it worth it)? If we trade for filler, we will be losing decent prospects in a year or so. I rather these trades if they happen be 1-1 or 2-1 type trades (with big impact) than 3 or 4 to 1 (with middle of road prospects), unless the other prospects are not Rule 5 eligible for years to come.
 
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biggie4

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I greatly appreciate the work you put into this Pete.
The most important things for me right now is 1. Who we get back for our trading pieces and 2. Which of our weak hitting young players right now will turn out to be somebody
 

CDAV45

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Great post Pete! You are correct in saying that filler prospects are no longer needed in the organization. In fact, there is good reason to offer a few up in trades if there is interest. I'm all for a Clevinger trade, and I like Atlanta the best for such a deal. I'd take Waters and any one of Anderson/Wilson/Muller, preferably Muller.

There's a darkhorse in these Clevinger talks IMO, and it's the Phillies. They could make a very good offer if they want a SP like Clevinger.
 

petes999

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Great post Pete! You are correct in saying that filler prospects are no longer needed in the organization. In fact, there is good reason to offer a few up in trades if there is interest. I'm all for a Clevinger trade, and I like Atlanta the best for such a deal. I'd take Waters and any one of Anderson/Wilson/Muller, preferably Muller.

There's a darkhorse in these Clevinger talks IMO, and it's the Phillies. They could make a very good offer if they want a SP like Clevinger.
I was looking at Atlanta too ... If Clevinger can get close to Sale type trade value (2 top 70 prospects plus 8th in system, but bit lower for 1/2 year service difference), Waters/Muller would work (As Pache and Anderson is probably a bit much -- but I like Pache being rightie and Waters hits better leftie) plus there maybe room to be able to land a Contreras as their 8th prospect (as they got Langeliers too).... as a gap between Perez/Naylor. I know that I am greedy ... but that solves 3 needs (OF, possible FOR starter and stop-gap C). Maybe we throw in a bit extra. Their pen is in need of work with Melancon, Greene, Matzek, Minter ... then Tomlin ... agghhh but Hand is probably too much and not right fit.

Will be interesting this next 6 days...
 

Gson

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I was looking at Atlanta too ... If Clevinger can get close to Sale type trade value (2 top 70 prospects plus 8th in system, but bit lower for 1/2 year service difference), Waters/Muller would work (As Pache and Anderson is probably a bit much -- but I like Pache being rightie and Waters hits better leftie) plus there maybe room to be able to land a Contreras as their 8th prospect (as they got Langeliers too).... as a gap between Perez/Naylor. I know that I am greedy ... but that solves 3 needs (OF, possible FOR starter and stop-gap C). Maybe we throw in a bit extra. Their pen is in need of work with Melancon, Greene, Matzek, Minter ... then Tomlin ... agghhh but Hand is probably too much and not right fit.

Will be interesting this next 6 days...
It looks like there are probably about 8 of the 30 teams that would be looking to make some kind of addition to their starting pitching staff, excluding the Indians who are always (and should be) looking for Starting Pitching upgrades... The teams looking for addition in the AL may be the Jays and the Yankees.. at least two other AL Teams will be looking to add..

W/R to the Yankees.. Clarke Schmidt, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar represent a trio of guys who can come in and contribute right away.. Kevin Alcantara takes a back seat to vunderkindt Jasson Dominguez, but, both are highly skilled tool sheds... The Yankees would love to make Deivi Garcia and Michael Tauchman headliners.. pass on that

W/R to the Jays.. they have become relevant in shorter time than what might otherwise be a year preparing to compete in the 2021 season. The Jays have a couple to three or four guys that are what I'd call very interesting.. Tops on the list woulbe Lourdes Gurriel. The younger brother of Yuli Gurriel of the Astros.. this is a kid that has a howitzer for an arm and eagle's eyes at the dish. Along with Gurriel the younger, the Jays have a trio of more than a little bit interesting kids: Adam Kloffenstein.. just recently drafted, this horse was slate to begin the year in A ball..& has the physical tools to succeed. Jordan Groshans is another recent draftee that fits the Indians mold.. he's a MI that shows superb all around skills.. Last on the list is what I'll refer as the Tribe Returnee of the Year: Julian Merryweather. Trading this guy.. was and remains a mistake by the Indians.. All four (if the Indians add someone Ross Atkins/Shapiro want, desperately from our farm system) or three of the four would work for me..

The NL would be thee most desired destination for Sunshine and the Tribe..The Rockies are having what could only be described as a Jeckyl and Hyde year.. and are in dire need of a solid MOR/TOR SP. The St Louis Cardinals.. are in a similar boat.. and last & absolutely NOT least is the Atlanta Braves and their prospect capital.. Between the Rockies, Cards and the Braves.. any three of Zac Veen Brendan Rogers, Jon Gray, Dylan Carlson, Matt Liberatore, Drew Waters, Shea Langeliers and/or Kyle Muller make a LOT of sense for the tribe..

Thoughts?
 
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xmasbuck

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I note that there are reports that the Yankees may have garcia and schmidt make their ml debuts this weekend -- hmm
 

petes999

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W/R to the Yankees.. Clarke Schmidt, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar represent a trio of guys who can come in and contribute right away.. Kevin Alcantara takes a back seat to vunderkindt Jasson Dominguez, but, both are highly skilled tool sheds... The Yankees would love to make Deivi Garcia and Michael Tauchman headliners.. pass on that

Thoughts?
Sorry, I am a not for Andujar. Seen some of the Rumors of Lindor for Adujar and Torres and makes me want to puke a little. Andjuar was out most of last year with labrum tear. Yet, even year before, he had a monster July/August and then fell off in Sept/Oct and the few games last year and this year.... With playing little/no defense, where do we hide him with Reyes and Bradley? Also, Torres is an AS caliber 2nd but heard rumors about glove/concentration at SS. Plus, he fell of last Sept (.237 BA) and this year (.231 BA). Yes, Lindor hasn't performed great either but 5 hr vs 1 hr for Torres plus the gold glove.

And, I still believe if Sale got two top prospects (top 10 and top 70 plus 8th prospect in Boston system), that Clevinger should not be that far behind (2-1/2 years vs 3 years, RH vs lefty). So the starting price is Dominguez sorry (hear he is untouchable) ... even if they think he is MVP at some point, Clevinger is right there now. I would then gamble a bit on Garcia as 2nd piece (instead of Schmidt). Frazier can then be the 3rd piece ... he has lost a lot of luster ... and again has issues fielding (not really a CF like we thought he could be). So Outffield of Mercado-Johnson-Frazier with Luplow and Deshields filling in?

W/R to the Jays.. they have become relevant in shorter time than what might otherwise be a year preparing to compete in the 2021 season. The Jays have a couple to three or four guys that are what I'd call very interesting.. Tops on the list woulbe Lourdes Gurriel. The younger brother of Yuli Gurriel of the Astros.. this is a kid that has a howitzer for an arm and eagle's eyes at the dish. Along with Gurriel the younger, the Jays have a trio of more than a little bit interesting kids: Adam Kloffenstein.. just recently drafted, this horse was slate to begin the year in A ball..& has the physical tools to succeed. Jordan Groshans is another recent draftee that fits the Indians mold.. he's a MI that shows superb all around skills.. Last on the list is what I'll refer as the Tribe Returnee of the Year: Julian Merryweather. Trading this guy.. was and remains a mistake by the Indians.. All four (if the Indians add someone Ross Atkins/Shapiro want, desperately from our farm system) or three of the four would work for me..
I hated to lose Merryweather in Donaldson trade. However, he is just coming back after 2 years of injuries but throwing hard as a reliever. As I said before, I rather have 2-1 high impact trade than 3-1/4-1 as we will start having roster issues next year and Merryweather is an improvement over Cimber but compared to others like Whitgren/Clase/Kar/Gose (at 100mph), who would you take in the pen? Issue with Groshans is he is a year above Rochhio/Bracho but a year behind Freeman. It's bottleneck. Gurriel is immediate need and Kloffestein adds plenty of pitching depth ... but may not be best fit - overall.

I like Atlanta near ready talent a lot ... a combo of top rated OF/Pitch and Contreras filler at catcher would be nice and help immediately -- probably the best fit for our needs out there.

St Louis also fills an immediate need with Carlson and Liberatore (close enough) maybe they can throw in a guy named Torres .... Yet, being 18th and 61st best prospects, it may be torwards "rich" side for Clevinger, but might as well try as there should be a bidding war for good pitching -- more demand this year despite COVID as more teams are in the race and a good starter can win 2 games out of 7.

Rockies are not as great as a fit as Rodgers would be viewed as Lindor replacement holder (Ramirez to 2nd and Jones 3rd) and Veen (like Dominquez) is years away (so you still need immediate surplus OF help that NY has in Frazier). Yet, it will work if you have Lindor trade also in work for pitching and OF.

Lots of moving pieces....
 
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Derek

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@petes999 I don't think looking at Sale's return will give you an accurate look at what we could get for Clev.

Sale, at the time, had a lot more value than Clev does now. I think Clev has a lot of value, but Sale was that fucking guy at the time he was dealt.
 
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Found this in the ESPN trade rumors column:

Atlanta likely on lookout for rotation help: The Braves have the 26th-best rotation ERA in baseball but also a 91% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. The rotation doesn't look good to the eye, either, with Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels injured, Felix Hernandez opted-out, and four pitchers optioned due to ineffectiveness: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson.

The other three current members of the rotation behind ace Max Fried are two journeyman swingman types in Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin and a hot-and-cold young arm in Touki Toussaint. The 35-year-old Tomlin was very good out of the bullpen in eight appearances this year, but has been iffy in his two starts including giving up three homers to the Phillies over three innings.

No rotation is deep enough to lose seven projected contributors, but the Braves are deep enough in young talent that my 49th-ranked prospect in baseball entering the year, RHP Ian Anderson, is at the Alternate Site and is rumored to be an option soon. Since Anderson isn't on the 40-man roster, the Braves seem hesitant to bring him up until it's clear he's the best option.

Indians RHP Mike Clevinger is the best arm expected to be available for trade, but with only one set-in-stone name in their rotation, the Braves will need more than one answer to their rotation question. -- Kiley McDaniel


Seems like a Clevinger to the Braves for prospects deal might make some sense. A) They're going to have to trade him eventually and the sooner they do the bigger the return. B) It's always good to trade with a team that is desparate. If the team is in the National League - even better. C) The Indians aren't going to the World Series this year even with Clevinger. They don't have the bats. They're 28th in scoring. They're 2-5 against the Twins and 0-2 against the Cubs. But they would still have a rotation of Bieber, Carrasco, Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie.
 

Criznit

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It looks like the trade market or outfielders is surprisingly thin this year. Nothing great in the rental market, so it will likely be a go big or go home type trade or hold steady.
 

avs2000

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Found this in the ESPN trade rumors column:

Atlanta likely on lookout for rotation help: The Braves have the 26th-best rotation ERA in baseball but also a 91% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. The rotation doesn't look good to the eye, either, with Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels injured, Felix Hernandez opted-out, and four pitchers optioned due to ineffectiveness: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson.

The other three current members of the rotation behind ace Max Fried are two journeyman swingman types in Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin and a hot-and-cold young arm in Touki Toussaint. The 35-year-old Tomlin was very good out of the bullpen in eight appearances this year, but has been iffy in his two starts including giving up three homers to the Phillies over three innings.

No rotation is deep enough to lose seven projected contributors, but the Braves are deep enough in young talent that my 49th-ranked prospect in baseball entering the year, RHP Ian Anderson, is at the Alternate Site and is rumored to be an option soon. Since Anderson isn't on the 40-man roster, the Braves seem hesitant to bring him up until it's clear he's the best option.

Indians RHP Mike Clevinger is the best arm expected to be available for trade, but with only one set-in-stone name in their rotation, the Braves will need more than one answer to their rotation question. -- Kiley McDaniel


Seems like a Clevinger to the Braves for prospects deal might make some sense. A) They're going to have to trade him eventually and the sooner they do the bigger the return. B) It's always good to trade with a team that is desparate. If the team is in the National League - even better. C) The Indians aren't going to the World Series this year even with Clevinger. They don't have the bats. They're 28th in scoring. They're 2-5 against the Twins and 0-2 against the Cubs. But they would still have a rotation of Bieber, Carrasco, Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie.
For Clevinger we need a power hitting outfielder for this year as centerpiece of deal
For lindor in the off season we need a quaity 1b as centerpiece. Not resigning santana dont trust bradley
 

Derek

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For Clevinger we need a power hitting outfielder for this year as centerpiece of deal
For lindor in the off season we need a quaity 1b as centerpiece. Not resigning santana dont trust bradley
Santana will still be here next year
 

petes999

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Santana will still be here next year
At $17.5 option, with 1/2 mill buyout. .. batting .212 3 HR ... not all to certain.


[
@petes999 I don't think looking at Sale's return will give you an accurate look at what we could get for Clev.

Sale, at the time, had a lot more value than Clev does now. I think Clev has a lot of value, but Sale was that fucking guy at the time he was dealt.
Then what is the comp? NYY fans think Gray is fair comparison. But Gray wasn’t Gray till Reds (all hype).

Others,
Greinke — But, owed $32 mill per year for 2-1/2 years. Got Houston 3,4,5 prospects ... some just out of top 100 for a 36 year old.
Archer - Meadows and Glasnow ... he had few good years but had 2.5 years of 4 ERA before trade. Meadows and Glasnow were both top 100 talent who slipped in their transition.
Gray from Oakland — Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian who were 4th, 8th and 12th prospects.But, remember after 3 good years in Oak, he had 5.69 ERA and 3,43 ERA before trade ...
So all up and down guys. Not looking for top 10 guy like Machado ... thought More like top 20-40 guy then somewhere towards bottom of top 100. Would you give up Jones and say Freeman for Clevinger? Two unproven guys for a top-10 pitcher (sorry if Beiber/Kluber took cy young votes from him)? Most prospects, even top 100 guys need time to pan out if they ever do. There is lack of good pitching, so Clev is one of those guys behind Beiber, Bauer, Cole, and few others.... He just gets overlooked in Cleveland but #1 on most other teams.[/QUOTE]
 

Derek

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At $17.5 option, with 1/2 mill buyout. .. batting .212 3 HR ... not all to certain.


Then what is the comp? NYY fans think Gray is fair comparison. But Gray wasn’t Gray till Reds (all hype).

Others,
Greinke — But, owed $32 mill per year for 2-1/2 years. Got Houston 3,4,5 prospects ... some just out of top 100 for a 36 year old.
Archer - Meadows and Glasnow ... he had few good years but had 2.5 years of 4 ERA before trade. Meadows and Glasnow were both top 100 talent who slipped in their transition.
Gray from Oakland — Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian who were 4th, 8th and 12th prospects.But, remember after 3 good years in Oak, he had 5.69 ERA and 3,43 ERA before trade ...
So all up and down guys. Not looking for top 10 guy like Machado ... thought More like top 20-40 guy then somewhere towards bottom of top 100. Would you give up Jones and say Freeman for Clevinger? Two unproven guys for a top-10 pitcher (sorry if Beiber/Kluber took cy young votes from him)? Most prospects, even top 100 guys need time to pan out if they ever do. There is lack of good pitching, so Clev is one of those guys behind Beiber, Bauer, Cole, and few others.... He just gets overlooked in Cleveland but #1 on most other teams.
Outside of a shitty 2016, Gray's track record in Oakland is similar enough to Clevinger's success in Cleveland to make that a more apt comp, in my opinion. A perfect comp likely doesn't exist. I'm just saying Sale was THAT GUY when he was traded and rightfully netted Chicago a primetime collection of talent.

I also think it's a near-lock that Santana's option is picked up. Not a chance our FO is looking at a 30 game sample when making million $ decisions.
 

LL3

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It is very likely the Santana option is picked up, my only hesitation to call it a certainty is what the virus situation is looking like in 2 or 3 months, and what the financial hit of this season/level of optimism about next season might be. There is probably more uncertainty moving forward than most are willing to admit...and not just for the Tribe.
 

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