Future Roster - Trade Needs

[Wham with the Right Hand]

So your plan essentially says, dont do Santana's option, do Hands and resign Hernandez, then put Jones (a high prospect, but hasn't played above AA) to a position he doesnt know and expect to be able to compete with a Twins lineup that set records in 19, and likely have a legit chance in 21 to put up those standards again?

Thats the whole issue, we cannot just let go of one of the best hitters we have overall and expect us to compete in the division which likely will have two of the best offenses in baseball, In Chicago and Minnesota. If the FO and management had faith in Bauers and Bradley, they would be up with the main roster, especially Bauers.

Is Santana one of the best hitters in baseball? At .212/.716? Will he be one of the best at age 35 next year? I wouldn't be surprised if they decline his option and try to renegotiate a one-year deal at about $10 million. He likes it here and won't want to leave. Also, how will he perform on another team? He had his worst season in Philadelphia. Will other teams want to offer him the same $17 million the Phillies gave him?

And what is the long term answer at first base? Bobby Bradley? I don't think so. When we trade Clev and Lindor we need to get a first baseman.

 

[petes999]

In the perfect world, Santana will come alive the next 30 games and be worth $17 million. However, if $17 was a bargain a few years ago, Indians and others would have matched Phili offer rather than Phili trying to get out of the contract a year later. Now, he is older ... And, Indians are not the team where over paying people is what they do. Each year, they have been cutting salaries. COVID is going to make it even worse.

The person Santana was traded for EE has taken a big contract cut as well from $25 million to $10-12 million (12 this year and 10 next, if picked up). CJ Cron was also signed for something like $7 million.

I just think, you will find deals out there come Feb/March ... but those deals are usually 2nd basemen in recent years like Hernandez and Schoop as teams want that power more (Edwin has more than 30 since 2012 - Santana only did it twice -- and he still signed for $12 million this year $11 plus $1 buyout). I like Santana walks but you can find a replacement around 1/2 the cost for a minimum loss of production. And as WHAM said, Santana may want to renegotiate due to the uncertainty of this market.

But, Jones is an option at 1B (trust him more than Bradley or Bauers) or 3B (but then Ramirez needs to move to 2nd). Many 3B move to 1B as they age ... not that different other than scoop and stretch. Also, it is not like Jones isn't doing simulated games this year versus our AAA staff with Allen, Moss, Rodriquez, Gose, Wood, Hentges, Morgan, etc. with a lot of instruction from our staff sitting in the peanut gallary.

 

[NEOLeo]

Jones at 3B and Ramirez at 2B is the future plan. Hernandez was a stopgap to buy time until Jones is ready. This crazy season may delay Jones arrival but I still don’t see them doing anything long term at 2B. Doubt Hernandez would resign on another one year deal, especially if he keeps playing the way he has been.

Put me in the camp that thinks Santana will be back next year. However I agree that a 1B needs to be targeted in the Lindor/Clevinger trades. I would like to target a SS too (in addition to OF).

If they land both a 1B and a SS, you have one open IF spot for Jones/Freeman and you’re not counting on both of them developing. If Jones makes it, you play Ramirez at 2B. If Jones doesn’t pan out, you keep Ramirez at 3B and slide Freeman to 2B.

 

[sportscoach]

Is Santana one of the best hitters in baseball? At .212/.716? Will he be one of the best at age 35 next year? I wouldn't be surprised if they decline his option and try to renegotiate a one-year deal at about $10 million. He likes it here and won't want to leave. Also, how will he perform on another team? He had his worst season in Philadelphia. Will other teams want to offer him the same $17 million the Phillies gave him?

And what is the long term answer at first base? Bobby Bradley? I don't think so. When we trade Clev and Lindor we need to get a first baseman.

One of the best hitters we have, not in baseball, there is a difference, plus in 19, he was one of the best overall 1B I believe when it came to WAR. Also when did a 60 game set decide if a player is good or bad?

Santana has a career .447 SLG% and he is only at .323 right now. Career .267 BABIP and he is at .237. He has been stronger of late as well. The FO has always gone more towards track record than anything else and Santana is leading the lead in walks and i think anyone is the organization can say is one of the main pieces on this team. If Francona says we have to keep him the FO, will keep him. We will find money saving elsewhere. We cannot get rid of one of the main guys on the roster in a contention year and expect it to work out.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I also have a personally high value on Santana because I think a "moneyball" aspect (something that helps you win but isn't currently valued) is the ability to work a count and make pitchers labor. The more guys in your lineup who do that, the better everyone can look. It's a reason why I was so in on going for McCutcheon when he was a free agent.

 

[CDAV45]

Los is not the problem even if his overall offensive performance is below what we have come to expect. Remember he is a notoriously slow starter. In a normal year he takes off like a rocket after the AS break.

I don't disagree that a 1B prospect would be a good target, but many think that's where Jones will end up playing.

 

[sportscoach]

Nolan Jones has no experience at 1B and honestly his fielding at 3B has been kind of bad. His bat could possibly be ready, but his fielding is not ready at all. I dont trust him out there at 3B yet. I personally feel Jones will end up going the same route as Chisenhall or Gordon, that athletic 3B who gets put into the OF. Jones likely in my mind ends up in LF. Plus at the moment he is a platoon guy, he doesn't hit lefties well at all.

Now I believe personally, Hernandez will be out of our price range to resign even if we cut Domingo. So next season we will have to replace him internally/minor league free agent. It will end up being Chang, Clement, T Freeman and jones trying to replace him on the 25 man roster.

When it comes to long term, we have a lot of middle INF prospects, so i am not 100% worried about 1B since for most of the kids, that will be a position a lot of guys can transfer too. In a trade my worry is getting more catchers. We have horrible catching depth. We have to keep trading and acquiring guys from outside of the organization. To fill in catching spots. That scares me since I am a person that prioritizes catching.

 

[CDAV45]

With the rise of some of these young BP arms, I'd look to add a good back end arm via trade while putting Hand on the market. You might be able to get the Dodgers or Padres to give up something valuable for him.

I still say that Baltimore is a good trade partner and that they would be willing to deal Givens or Castro(preferably Givens). How about Logan Allen and Bobby Bradley for Mountcastle and Givens? We get our LFer and another BP arm. If they would prefer Hankins or Mejia over Allen then I would do that too.

Just ideas in my tiny, little mind that won't go away. I'm not even suggesting that they are "good" ideas.

 

[DCTribefan]

With the rise of some of these young BP arms, I'd look to add a good back end arm via trade while putting Hand on the market. You might be able to get the Dodgers or Padres to give up something valuable for him.

I still say that Baltimore is a good trade partner and that they would be willing to deal Givens or Castro(preferably Givens). How about Logan Allen and Bobby Bradley for Mountcastle and Givens? We get our LFer and another BP arm. If they would prefer Hankins or Mejia over Allen then I would do that too.

Just ideas in my tiny, little mind that won't go away. I'm not even suggesting that they are "good" ideas.

What is this fascination with Givens? Please explain.

 

[CDAV45]

What is this fascination with Givens? Please explain.

No fascination. He just a pretty good RP and I'm rapidly losing faith in Brad Hand. There's just something about 12.3 SO/9 and a .77 ERA in 11 appearances that I believe could be useful to this team.

 

[LL3]

Nolan Jones has no experience at 1B and honestly his fielding at 3B has been kind of bad. His bat could possibly be ready, but his fielding is not ready at all. I dont trust him out there at 3B yet. I personally feel Jones will end up going the same route as Chisenhall or Gordon, that athletic 3B who gets put into the OF. Jones likely in my mind ends up in LF. Plus at the moment he is a platoon guy, he doesn't hit lefties well at all.

Now I believe personally, Hernandez will be out of our price range to resign even if we cut Domingo. So next season we will have to replace him internally/minor league free agent. It will end up being Chang, Clement, T Freeman and jones trying to replace him on the 25 man roster.

When it comes to long term, we have a lot of middle INF prospects, so i am not 100% worried about 1B since for most of the kids, that will be a position a lot of guys can transfer too. In a trade my worry is getting more catchers. We have horrible catching depth. We have to keep trading and acquiring guys from outside of the organization. To fill in catching spots. That scares me since I am a person that prioritizes catching.

Coach -- where are you hearing Nolan Jones is "kind of bad" in the field? Looking at some recent prospect reviews (Law being the last), they all indicate he does adequate or better work at 3B, especially in light of his size. That said, I would agree that just dropping him into 1B right now would not be a great idea, even he eventually plays there or in a corner OF spot. down the road. I recently heard Antonetti remark that Jones was working primarily at 3b in Eastlake when askeed about him potentially playing a different position for the big club.

 

[sportscoach]

Coach -- where are you hearing Nolan Jones is "kind of bad" in the field? Looking at some recent prospect reviews (Law being the last), they all indicate he does adequate or better work at 3B, especially in light of his size. That said, I would agree that just dropping him into 1B right now would not be a great idea, even he eventually plays there or in a corner OF spot. down the road. I recently heard Antonetti remark that Jones was working primarily at 3b in Eastlake when askeed about him potentially playing a different position for the big club.

Look at his numbers at 3B. He has the profile of a guy who plays 3B, but hasnt actually been able to put it on the field well. Scouting report by mlb.com, says he is working on becoming average at 3B with his improvement with his agility and whatnot. Compare his numbers to big league numbers, he would be one of the worst in the pros. He has improved but in my mind isn't trustworthy out there.

For 2019, in 987 innings, he had 21 errors, fielding percentage of .929. It was .902 in 908 innings the season before. Range factor of 2.52/2.38., while league average in the pros in 19 was a .958 fielding percentage and a 2.67/2.65 range factor. (Using info on baseball reference)

I am not finding his advanced fielding stats anywhere (not sure if @Derek Or someone else could know where to find them), but the basic stats don't support his 3B well.

Personally to me, Jones has very good potential with the bat, but before he can be an everyday big leaguer, he has to improve on hitting LH pitchers and find either a position that he is decent at fielding or improve his below average fielding grades.

 

[LL3]

Look at his numbers at 3B. He has the profile of a guy who plays 3B, but hasnt actually been able to put it on the field well. Scouting report by mlb.com, says he is working on becoming average at 3B with his improvement with his agility and whatnot. Compare his numbers to big league numbers, he would be one of the worst in the pros. He has improved but in my mind isn't trustworthy out there.

For 2019, in 987 innings, he had 21 errors, fielding percentage of .929. It was .902 in 908 innings the season before. Range factor of 2.52/2.38., while league average in the pros in 19 was a .958 fielding percentage and a 2.67/2.65 range factor. (Using info on baseball reference)

I am not finding his advanced fielding stats anywhere (not sure if @Derek Or someone else could know where to find them), but the basic stats don't support his 3B well.

Personally to me, Jones has very good potential with the bat, but before he can be an everyday big leaguer, he has to improve on hitting LH pitchers and find either a position that he is decent at fielding or improve his below average fielding grades.

I am not sure if defensive numbers in the minors have become far more reliable in recent years, but I would not bury him yet at third...the Indians have apparently not...nor have other scouts and analysts. I have not watched him on a regular basis, and even if I did, I'm no expert, but most suggest he'd be closer to average than bad. In any case, he does not seem to be training at another position at this point.

 

[LL3]

I am not sure if defensive numbers in the minors have become far more reliable in recent years, but I would not bury him yet at third...the Indians have apparently not...nor have other scouts and analysts. I have not watched him on a regular basis, and even if I did, I'm no expert, but most suggest he'd be closer to average than bad. In any case, he does not seem to be training at another position at this point.

Just more grist for the mill -- Law from Spring 2020 -- He’s (Jones) big for third base, but he’s more agile than you’d expect. I’ve seen him several times at the position, where his only weakness seemed to be a little bit of lost range to his left.

 

[sportscoach]

I am not sure if defensive numbers in the minors have become far more reliable in recent years, but I would not bury him yet at third...the Indians have apparently not...nor have other scouts and analysts. I have not watched him on a regular basis, and even if I did, I'm no expert, but most suggest he'd be closer to average than bad. In any case, he does not seem to be training at another position at this point.

He is most valuable at 3B and we don't have a ton of depth at the position either. We lack depth in the organization at 1B, 3B and C. Im not 100% worried about 1B and 3B since we have a ton of middle INF prospects that eventually will have to move positions. In theory we should be fine that way.

Either way Jones will get as much time as possible to prove he can play 3B. If he can be average at 3B and improve on hitting left-handers (his platoon splits arent great) then he is an everyday player. His floor is Lonnie Chisenhall with a much better batters eye, so in my mind, that says he will at least be a productive pro player.

Problem is without being able to see whats going on at the alternate camp, I have to project Jones the same player. He could have made his MLB debut this season. Now I am betting it will be next season when/if we have to replace Hernandez.