Sorry for being long-winded ... but the future looks bright if we focus on 2-3 infield/outfield holes, a catcher, and maybe 1-2 pitchers in returns next week or next offseason versus one report that we will need 2 pitchers, 1 infield & 1 outfield for a Clevinger (and assume same for Lindor). And, most importantly, we need to focus on quality returns not quantity filler (not the 15-25 rank prospects that other fans want to give us). Let me explain.
I wanted to see where the Indians are heading and look forward a bit as next year (2021) will start to get interesting with Rule 5.
Our Rule 5 players –
Past due – Oviedo, O Gonzalez, Fermin, Juan Mota, F Perez, Siri, Angelo, Gose, Tom, Dowdy, Martinez (maybe we pick-up a reliever or two from this list like Gose or Mota/Siri/Perez)
2020 – Jones, Clement, Morgan, Nelson, M Gonzales, Burgos, Vargas, Benson
2021 – Valera, Bracho, Freeman, Rocchio, Sandlin, Scott, Broom, Palacios, Tena, Noel, Planez, Holmes, Rodriquez (OF), Lavastida, Diaz, Nova
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How things can play out for 2022 on our 40 man are (assuming Lindor/Clev trade in 2020/21) and Hand/Santana gone by then.
Starters (pick 10 out of 13) – Beiber (2025 FA), Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, Carrasco (23 option), Reserves in AAA- Clevenger Trade Candidate, Allen (if not out of options), Moss, Morgan, Hentges, Oviedo and/or Vargas/Burgos (Plutko gone)
Relievers (10 out of 12 plus other FA type non-roster adds we have every year) – Karinchak, Clase, Hill, Mejia, Whitgren (FA after 22), Maton, Gose, Cimber, Rodriquez with Nelson, Sandlin, Scott waiting in AAA (assume Leone and Wood are gone, maybe Cimber)
Infield (6 out of 7) – Bradley (1B/DH), Ramirez (22/23 Opt), Freeman (at 2nd or SS), Lindor trade Candidate at SS, Jones (3B or 1B), Clement and Chang
Outfield/DH (6) – Need 2 more with a Lindor/Clevinger Trades, plus we have Reyes (25 FA), then pick 3 of Naquin, Johnson, Mercado, Luplow and Benson to fill in rest of OF (assume Zimmer, Allen, D Santana are cut by then and DeShields gone after 2021).
Catcher – (2) Perez (21/22 option) and Lavastida/Diaz or someone else till Naylor
Newly added to 40 in 2021 but not ready to play in 2022 (6) – Valera, Brachio, Rocchio, Tena, possible Palacios, Planez, …
Plus, we will have Espino, Hankin, Torres, Burns, Naylor, Gaddis, Delgado, Sanquintin and G Rodriquez and others getting closer and not that many people leaving after 2022 until 2025 (Perez after 2022, Ramirez after 2023, Cookie after 2022/23, Whitgren after 2022, Naquin after 2022) . And, by then, we will have prospects that burn out or do not cut it like a Allen, Chang, Plutko, ... but solid draft classes and international signs to fill the slots.
Not much room for anyone else to add via trade filler and this assumes we just get 4 people back (in 40 man projection above) from Lindor/Clevenger and possibly a little from Santana/Hand (assuming SP, SS, 2 OF also could use intrim-catcher). This also assumes no FAs to fill holes while getting rid of another $50-60 million in salary reduction (for Lindor, Hand, Santana, Hernandez and Clevinger). This means roster spaces will be a premium going forward ... no more waiting on OFs to develop.
Flow of players --
This season-end year-end cuts (5 to 7) – Hernandez (FA), Leon (FA), Leone (cut?), Freeman (been done before), Bauers – so 5 for sure maybe Hand ($10 mill option w $1 mill buyout), Domingo Santana (dump option) or Zimmer/Allen
2021 key adds (5 to 8) – Clase (suspension), Gose, Jones, Clement, Morgan, Oviedo(?), Vargas(?), Burgos(?) –plus we need a backup catcher (or resign Leon).
We also have flexibility to make other cuts can be Luplow, Plutko, Zimmer, Cimber, etc (especially if we add better players in trades).
After 2021, key losses (4) – C Santana, DeShields, Plutko (no more room for mediocrity), Lindor (if not traded)
Need to add at least (6-10) – Valera, Rocchio, Bracho, Tena, Freeman, Planez, Sandlin(?), Scott(?), Broom(?), Diaz(?) …
Thus, why take filler type players when trading Lindor, Clevinger, Hand or Santana with 3 for 1 type trades. Unlike Gomes where we got Rodriquez and Johnson who had to be added to 40 man (within the year), the offers better be big impact or go home. And, even 5-1 Bauer trade, we got Reyes, Puig as immediate help but Allen and Moss as prospects … will those type players beat out our pitchers next year in Oviedo/Morgan/Vargas for roster spots (it maybe a little upgrade but is it worth it)? If we trade for filler, we will be losing decent prospects in a year or so. I rather these trades if they happen be 1-1 or 2-1 type trades (with big impact) than 3 or 4 to 1 (with middle of road prospects), unless the other prospects are not Rule 5 eligible for years to come.
I wanted to see where the Indians are heading and look forward a bit as next year (2021) will start to get interesting with Rule 5.
Our Rule 5 players –
Past due – Oviedo, O Gonzalez, Fermin, Juan Mota, F Perez, Siri, Angelo, Gose, Tom, Dowdy, Martinez (maybe we pick-up a reliever or two from this list like Gose or Mota/Siri/Perez)
2020 – Jones, Clement, Morgan, Nelson, M Gonzales, Burgos, Vargas, Benson
2021 – Valera, Bracho, Freeman, Rocchio, Sandlin, Scott, Broom, Palacios, Tena, Noel, Planez, Holmes, Rodriquez (OF), Lavastida, Diaz, Nova
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How things can play out for 2022 on our 40 man are (assuming Lindor/Clev trade in 2020/21) and Hand/Santana gone by then.
Starters (pick 10 out of 13) – Beiber (2025 FA), Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, Carrasco (23 option), Reserves in AAA- Clevenger Trade Candidate, Allen (if not out of options), Moss, Morgan, Hentges, Oviedo and/or Vargas/Burgos (Plutko gone)
Relievers (10 out of 12 plus other FA type non-roster adds we have every year) – Karinchak, Clase, Hill, Mejia, Whitgren (FA after 22), Maton, Gose, Cimber, Rodriquez with Nelson, Sandlin, Scott waiting in AAA (assume Leone and Wood are gone, maybe Cimber)
Infield (6 out of 7) – Bradley (1B/DH), Ramirez (22/23 Opt), Freeman (at 2nd or SS), Lindor trade Candidate at SS, Jones (3B or 1B), Clement and Chang
Outfield/DH (6) – Need 2 more with a Lindor/Clevinger Trades, plus we have Reyes (25 FA), then pick 3 of Naquin, Johnson, Mercado, Luplow and Benson to fill in rest of OF (assume Zimmer, Allen, D Santana are cut by then and DeShields gone after 2021).
Catcher – (2) Perez (21/22 option) and Lavastida/Diaz or someone else till Naylor
Newly added to 40 in 2021 but not ready to play in 2022 (6) – Valera, Brachio, Rocchio, Tena, possible Palacios, Planez, …
Plus, we will have Espino, Hankin, Torres, Burns, Naylor, Gaddis, Delgado, Sanquintin and G Rodriquez and others getting closer and not that many people leaving after 2022 until 2025 (Perez after 2022, Ramirez after 2023, Cookie after 2022/23, Whitgren after 2022, Naquin after 2022) . And, by then, we will have prospects that burn out or do not cut it like a Allen, Chang, Plutko, ... but solid draft classes and international signs to fill the slots.
Not much room for anyone else to add via trade filler and this assumes we just get 4 people back (in 40 man projection above) from Lindor/Clevenger and possibly a little from Santana/Hand (assuming SP, SS, 2 OF also could use intrim-catcher). This also assumes no FAs to fill holes while getting rid of another $50-60 million in salary reduction (for Lindor, Hand, Santana, Hernandez and Clevinger). This means roster spaces will be a premium going forward ... no more waiting on OFs to develop.
Flow of players --
This season-end year-end cuts (5 to 7) – Hernandez (FA), Leon (FA), Leone (cut?), Freeman (been done before), Bauers – so 5 for sure maybe Hand ($10 mill option w $1 mill buyout), Domingo Santana (dump option) or Zimmer/Allen
2021 key adds (5 to 8) – Clase (suspension), Gose, Jones, Clement, Morgan, Oviedo(?), Vargas(?), Burgos(?) –plus we need a backup catcher (or resign Leon).
We also have flexibility to make other cuts can be Luplow, Plutko, Zimmer, Cimber, etc (especially if we add better players in trades).
After 2021, key losses (4) – C Santana, DeShields, Plutko (no more room for mediocrity), Lindor (if not traded)
Need to add at least (6-10) – Valera, Rocchio, Bracho, Tena, Freeman, Planez, Sandlin(?), Scott(?), Broom(?), Diaz(?) …
Thus, why take filler type players when trading Lindor, Clevinger, Hand or Santana with 3 for 1 type trades. Unlike Gomes where we got Rodriquez and Johnson who had to be added to 40 man (within the year), the offers better be big impact or go home. And, even 5-1 Bauer trade, we got Reyes, Puig as immediate help but Allen and Moss as prospects … will those type players beat out our pitchers next year in Oviedo/Morgan/Vargas for roster spots (it maybe a little upgrade but is it worth it)? If we trade for filler, we will be losing decent prospects in a year or so. I rather these trades if they happen be 1-1 or 2-1 type trades (with big impact) than 3 or 4 to 1 (with middle of road prospects), unless the other prospects are not Rule 5 eligible for years to come.
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