Future Turnover -- What 2023/24 will bring

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petes999

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Just trying to feel better when we are doing these 1 (Bauer) for 6 players , 1 for 2 (Kluber), 2 for 6 (Clevinger) and this 2 for 4 (Lindor) type trades. I am always more of a quality over quantity type guy. I just don't see a space for Gimenez or Rosario long-term .... and not hopeful on 2021 or 2022 seasons vs Twins and Sox. Thus, I was looking at how our deep depth of minor league talent may play out (I know too much speculation but what else are we to do until ST and start of Ramirez rumors) -- this is meant for prospect geeks like me

The first thing that anyone will notice is the amount of Rule 5 prospects we have over next 2 years (even w/o Ramirez trade). We will be losing more than Oviedo and Tom. But as others posters will say ... some will be traded. We just got to hope the team that other team has excess OF/C with multi year control are looking for middle infielders in AA/AAA for 2/3 for 1 trades. (I assume pitchers are always in demand). And, yes some middle infielders, are going to switch to OF and 3b (to fill holes), just hope they have a good enough bat to fill the position.

And, in reality, Ramirez trade should bring back 2 or 3 of our biggest needs (OF, C, 3B if Jones goes to OF) and I know I said I rather have quality over quantity ... but Ram is going to bring both (with 2-1/2 to 3 years left) versus Lindor 1 and Clevinger 2 -- where we settled on quantity (both near ready and prospects) over quality.

Dodgers -- BaseballTradevalue gets us (Top 4 ) -- Gray, Ruiz, Hoese and Busch (if we throw in a minor chip) -- no outfield ready prospects other than Peters (who is quantity over quality) -- so can add L. Rodriquez (to join 2024 OF w Valera) over Busch

Braves -- Trade value gets us at least Waters, Langeliers, Muller plus minor chip(s) like Franklin/Shuster

Now onto our prospects
Rule 5 – 2021 (and FanGraph Rank)

So we will at least add (7) -- Valera, Freeman, Bracho, Miller, Cantillo ... and I assume 2 of Palacios, Tena, Planez and Sandlin (depending on who breaks-out)

We will need to drop (unless one breaks out) those with limited options by then (0 opt) Bauers, Plutko, (1 opt) Bradley, Chang, Zimmer & other folder like Taylor. Out of this group Bradley has the best shot at making it (hopefully to push Naylor to OF and keep Jones at 3B in AAA until Ramirez is traded).

They may even trade Whitgren at this deadline as he is FA after 2022 and has value as 7th/8th inning guy that we will not pay for being our 7th inning guy in 2023 behind Kar and Clase (and starters out of options like Allen/Mejia/Hentges in the pen).

And, the following year, adds to the problem as there are few, if any FA left

Thus, if 4 or 5 make the roster, the other players at the bottom of our current roster are Hill, Stephan, Rosario, Humphries, Moss, Luplow, Clement (just don't see room for him), Nelson. As we will get a few prospects for Ramirez and possibly Wittgren, most of these guys are gone (I am pulling for Mejia/Stephan as part of our hard throwing pen -- just need the control to keep them).

The other big question, is what do we do with our starters as Bieber will only have 23/24 left before he is a FA and the rest Plesac, Civale, Quant, Allen have 23/24/25 left. Big turnover unless one or two can be extended soon.

40 man projection for 2023 Season

20 Pitchers -- (Starters) Bieber, Plesac, Quant, McK, Civale
(Top 5 Relief?) Kar, Clase, Hentges, Mejia, L. Allen (no opt for all 3 in 2022)
(Depth AAA starters) Cantillo, Torres, Hankins, Vargas, Morgan,
(No option) Moss so pen bound? (16 so far)

Plus Four of Maton, Miko, Morris, Curry, Gaddis, Sandlin, Nelson, Hill, Humphries, Stephan, Scott, Burgos (all will be Rule 5 by then) -- OR who we get in Ramirez trade

20 Fielders -- (3 catchers) Naylor, Lavastida, Diaz or other catcher (e.g., resign Perez/Hedges?),
Starters (8) + Super utililty (2) Reyes, Mercado, Johnson, Valera, Jones, Naylor, Arias, Freeman, Miller, Gimenez
(4 top prospects - Rule V protect) Bracho, Rocchio, Martinez, Rodriquez, (17 so far)
3 others out of Luplow, Bradley, Clement, Rosario, Palacios, Tena, Planez, Delgado, Noel, Kwan - Or who we get in Ramirez trade like OF prospect

Ohhh ... and by the way ... Dec 2023 Rule 5 is Espino, Burns, Allen, Wolf, Pestrano (Int FA) ... (so are cutting again as first FA is Nov 2024 in Reyes, Luplow and Bieber).

In sumary, 2 top people in this Lindor/Cookie trade are either projected utility players (Gimenez) by 2023 or cut in roster crunch (Rosario) ... great use of assets if we are not seriously contending in 2021 or 2022. How does that Toronto rumor (bigger upside) start looking now if we could have landed a stud at a needed position OF/C...
 

NorthCoastBias

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CATS44

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If our FO follows its SOP, we will begin trading 3/4 for 1 fairly soon.

This year we've done a 2 for 4, last year a 1 for 2 and a 2 for 6. In 2018 it was a 1 for 6. But we also traded 2 for 1 to get Mercado and 3 for 2 to get Luplow and the departed Moroff. The end net result is 11 for 18.

Trade wise, we stood pat in 2017, but in 2016 we traded 4 for 1 in the Miller deal, and would have traded 4 for 1 in a deal for Lucroy.

In terms of future, (within three years, which is all I worry about) the Miller trade didn't hurt us. The Lucroy trade would have been cost us Hand later.

Our system could withstand two such trades now, esp if the return was cost controlled for multiple years.
 

Gson

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another pair of factors..

1. Reduction in MiLB franchises.. the natural consolidation of talent with fewer spots is going to skew the number of guys who will be ready (more ready by playing against higher quality MiLB'ers?) to play at the ML level..

2. Two more drafts.. with the one in 2021 set to be significantly deeper as many "would be" fringe draftees sat out the draft due to uncertainty.. The 2021 draft is going to be a very deep, very talented draft.. Look for the Indians to turn what they can with their current logjam of MIF'ers into Competitive Balance Lottery picks..

There are other factors that will come to bear on the 2023/24 rosters...
 

sportscoach

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If our FO follows its SOP, we will begin trading 3/4 for 1 fairly soon.

This year we've done a 2 for 4, last year a 1 for 2 and a 2 for 6. In 2018 it was a 1 for 6. But we also traded 2 for 1 to get Mercado and 3 for 2 to get Luplow and the departed Moroff. The end net result is 11 for 18.

Trade wise, we stood pat in 2017, but in 2016 we traded 4 for 1 in the Miller deal, and would have traded 4 for 1 in a deal for Lucroy.

In terms of future, (within three years, which is all I worry about) the Miller trade didn't hurt us. The Lucroy trade would have been cost us Hand later.

Our system could withstand two such trades now, esp if the return was cost controlled for multiple years.

I agree, I think sometime between now and the middle of 22, we will make a Miller and Lucroy type of deal in a sense. Eddie is a short term player for us more than likely (trade candidate if out of the running), Amed is in arbitration and Cesar is a 2 year deal with an option for the second year. We will look to replace these guys probably.

The biggest question in my mind is will the athletes at A ball become legit mlb hitters. We havent hit on mlb hitters since Lindor and JRam in all honesty hence why a bad 2020 hitting wise. Small markets rely upon making smart trades and developing young players. Name a young hitter since JRam and Lindor came to the big leagues that we developed that became a solid MLB hitter?

Position wise the only players we have who were originally signed/drafted by the Indians on the 40 man roster are Perez, Zimmer, Chang, Clement, Jones, JRam and Bradley. 4 are barely on this roster at the moment (Zimmer, Chang, Clement, Bradley).

Looking at pitching, 4 of our projected rotation are drafted/signed from within and we have 8 more on the roster including arguably our best RP in Karinchak from within.

We havent hit on high profile hitters even though I know we have been signing them. 12 draft, Naquin and Wendle (traded), 13 draft, Frazier (traded for Miller), 14 draft, Zimmer, Bradley, Allen, Papi, all haven't done anything in the bigs. 15 draft, Mathias, Kreiger, Tom, (Marabell late). Only Mathias has any big league experience. 16 draft, now we did kill this one honestly, but batting wise, Benson, Jones (just got added to 40 man), Ice, Capel (traded for Mercado).

We badly need the crew of Freeman, Jones, Miller etc to produce since we have been lacking bats coming up and doing just that.
 

CATS44

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Thats why they are worth more in trade than in baseball value.

But from another angle, we have changed the way we target young position players in the draft and with international free agents.

The recent draftees/signees typically fit the same mold. No more going for power bats. They all come with the superior ability to make contact.

In other words we are stockpiling kids that look more like Brantley, Lindor, and Jose than look like Frazier and Zimmer.

Its hard to concieve of now, but the knock on all three was that they had no power.
 
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The recent draftees/signees typically fit the same mold. No more going for power bats. They all come with the superior ability to make contact.

In other words we are stockpiling kids that look more like Brantley, Lindor, and Jose than look like Frazier and Zimmer.
Good observation.

If the Twins and/or White Sox take off and are running away with the division while the Tribe is battling the Royals and/or Tigers for 3rd place in July, are Eddie and Hosey traded at the deadline? Especially if Nolan Jones is killing it in AAA.

Can you imagine the haul that would bring? And more salary relief.
 
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We will need to drop (unless one breaks out) those with limited options by then (0 opt) Bauers, Plutko, (1 opt) Bradley, Chang, Zimmer & other folder like Taylor...[the following year] if 4 or 5 make the roster, the other players at the bottom of our current roster are Hill, Stephan, Rosario, Humphries, Moss, Luplow, Clement (just don't see room for him), Nelson.

I don't see us getting jammed up in Rule 5 for the next couple of years. I'm optimistic about Moss but otherwise those guys are "fodder" like you tried to say. However, trading Hosey and Rosario would definitely bring back enough keepers to force some hard choices.

Recently I've seen the Indians farm system ranked 2nd and 7th overall. Trading Eddie and Jose would push it right up to the top three if it's not there already. That will inevitably bring about some tough decisions about who to expose to Rule 5, but that's a better problem than having nobody you're worried about exposing.
 
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