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The downward spiraling Cavs move on to Portland after an embarrassing beatdown in Denver and questions about their willingness to compete. The Trailblazers are 14-10 and will be playing on the second night of a home back-to-back after beating Philly last night. The Sixers came in 18-7 and in first place in the East so that was a very nice win for Denver.
Their second highest scorer, CJ McCollum, is out. He’s averaging 26.7/3.9/5.0 so that should be a big deal but they haven’t missed him much. They are 8-5 with him and 6-5 without. However, they still have Damian Lillard and his 29.4 points and 7.1 assists per game.
The Blazers are averaging 115.7 ppg with McCallum and 113.5 ppg without him so they’ve mostly made up the missing 26.7 ppg and 5.0 assists.
Their starting center, Nurkic, is also out. He’s averaging 9.8 points and 7.7 rebounds in 12 starts. Enes Kanter takes his place. Their main man off the bench is 36-year-old Carmelo Anthony, shooting only 38% from the field and 36.8% on 3’s. However, he scored 24 points in 25 minutes last night shooting 9-for-15.
The Blazers are similar to the Nuggets in that offense is where they hang their hat. They rank 7th in scoring and 25th in scoring defense. Offensively they are dead last in points in the paint despite being 7th in scoring. Obviously they like jump shots. They lead the league in 3-point attempts per game and rank 10th in 3-point percentage, so you have to emphasize defending the perimeter. They rank well below average in free throws per offensive play; another indication they don’t like to attack the rim much.
You wouldn’t think they would be the 7th best offense considering they’re last in points in the paint, 28th in 2-point percentage, and a little below average in offensive rebounding. However, they are 2nd lowest in turnovers per possession and 3rd in assists per possession. They protect the ball, pass unselfishly, and hit their 3-point shots. Last night they were 17-for-38 on 3-point attempts.
Against this offense it’s all about contesting 3’s. Shooting guard Gary Trent Jr is hitting 43.0% of his 3’s, so he can’t be left alone. The Cavs’ wing defenders can’t be sagging off to harass a ball handler and leave their man spotting up for a 3.
Defensively the Blazers are 25th at 115.3 ppg. They are below average in allowing fast break points and 3-pointers. They foul more than average. However, they are 2nd in steals per defensive play so you have to be careful since they’re a gambling defense. The local rag put it this way:
The Portland defense doesn’t do anything particularly well, ranking no better than 12th in any of the four factors, with the most important of those being opponent effective field goal percentage, where it ranks 28th.
In their win over Orlando Tuesday Lillard (36) and Anthony (23) combined for 59 of the team’s 106 points; over 50%. At 36 I don’t know how much Anthony will play or how effective he’ll be after playing the Sixers last night, but since he only played 25 minutes I expect he’ll be ready.
From the Portland media’s column on Carmelo becoming the NBA’s 12th leading scorer of all time this week:
Anthony, 36, has been criticized for his lack of defense – he’s never been a great defender – and for his inconsistent shooting this season. He is shooting a career-low 38% from the field. His effective field-goal percentage of 44.1% and true shooting percentage of 49.6% are also career lows despite him shooting 36.8% on threes. That’s better than his career percentage of 35%.
The Blazers have been running isolation plays for him that haven’t always been pretty. Shooting low-percentage mid-range, fadeaway, two-point shots over a defender flies in the face of analytics and basic math, especially when the team is seventh in the NBA in three-point percentage (38.1) and even Anthony is shooting well from three.
As Carmelo goes, so go the Blazers:
In the team’s last eight games, Anthony put forth miserable scoring outputs of 6, 4, 6 and 2 points. The Blazers went 1-3 in those games. In the other four outings, Anthony produced 22, 21, 22 and 23 points. The Blazers went 3-1 in those games.
Make that 4-1 after he scored 24 in last night’s win over the best team in the East.
With Anthony on the second night of a back-to-back I’m hoping for one of those 6-point games. This looks like another winnable game on paper but the Blazers’ volume and accuracy of 3-point shooting will give the Cavs a lot of trouble. If the Cavs come out sleepwalking again they could quickly find themselves in too big a hole to dig out of.
Their second highest scorer, CJ McCollum, is out. He’s averaging 26.7/3.9/5.0 so that should be a big deal but they haven’t missed him much. They are 8-5 with him and 6-5 without. However, they still have Damian Lillard and his 29.4 points and 7.1 assists per game.
The Blazers are averaging 115.7 ppg with McCallum and 113.5 ppg without him so they’ve mostly made up the missing 26.7 ppg and 5.0 assists.
Their starting center, Nurkic, is also out. He’s averaging 9.8 points and 7.7 rebounds in 12 starts. Enes Kanter takes his place. Their main man off the bench is 36-year-old Carmelo Anthony, shooting only 38% from the field and 36.8% on 3’s. However, he scored 24 points in 25 minutes last night shooting 9-for-15.
The Blazers are similar to the Nuggets in that offense is where they hang their hat. They rank 7th in scoring and 25th in scoring defense. Offensively they are dead last in points in the paint despite being 7th in scoring. Obviously they like jump shots. They lead the league in 3-point attempts per game and rank 10th in 3-point percentage, so you have to emphasize defending the perimeter. They rank well below average in free throws per offensive play; another indication they don’t like to attack the rim much.
You wouldn’t think they would be the 7th best offense considering they’re last in points in the paint, 28th in 2-point percentage, and a little below average in offensive rebounding. However, they are 2nd lowest in turnovers per possession and 3rd in assists per possession. They protect the ball, pass unselfishly, and hit their 3-point shots. Last night they were 17-for-38 on 3-point attempts.
Against this offense it’s all about contesting 3’s. Shooting guard Gary Trent Jr is hitting 43.0% of his 3’s, so he can’t be left alone. The Cavs’ wing defenders can’t be sagging off to harass a ball handler and leave their man spotting up for a 3.
Defensively the Blazers are 25th at 115.3 ppg. They are below average in allowing fast break points and 3-pointers. They foul more than average. However, they are 2nd in steals per defensive play so you have to be careful since they’re a gambling defense. The local rag put it this way:
The Portland defense doesn’t do anything particularly well, ranking no better than 12th in any of the four factors, with the most important of those being opponent effective field goal percentage, where it ranks 28th.
In their win over Orlando Tuesday Lillard (36) and Anthony (23) combined for 59 of the team’s 106 points; over 50%. At 36 I don’t know how much Anthony will play or how effective he’ll be after playing the Sixers last night, but since he only played 25 minutes I expect he’ll be ready.
From the Portland media’s column on Carmelo becoming the NBA’s 12th leading scorer of all time this week:
Anthony, 36, has been criticized for his lack of defense – he’s never been a great defender – and for his inconsistent shooting this season. He is shooting a career-low 38% from the field. His effective field-goal percentage of 44.1% and true shooting percentage of 49.6% are also career lows despite him shooting 36.8% on threes. That’s better than his career percentage of 35%.
The Blazers have been running isolation plays for him that haven’t always been pretty. Shooting low-percentage mid-range, fadeaway, two-point shots over a defender flies in the face of analytics and basic math, especially when the team is seventh in the NBA in three-point percentage (38.1) and even Anthony is shooting well from three.
As Carmelo goes, so go the Blazers:
In the team’s last eight games, Anthony put forth miserable scoring outputs of 6, 4, 6 and 2 points. The Blazers went 1-3 in those games. In the other four outings, Anthony produced 22, 21, 22 and 23 points. The Blazers went 3-1 in those games.
Make that 4-1 after he scored 24 in last night’s win over the best team in the East.
With Anthony on the second night of a back-to-back I’m hoping for one of those 6-point games. This looks like another winnable game on paper but the Blazers’ volume and accuracy of 3-point shooting will give the Cavs a lot of trouble. If the Cavs come out sleepwalking again they could quickly find themselves in too big a hole to dig out of.
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