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After a very brief (as in one game) “homestand” the Cavs head northeast to take on the 6-3 Raptors. Despite not having Pascal Siakam, still recovering from a June shoulder injury, the Raptors have won five in a row. Their losses in the first week were to Chicago (6-2), Dallas (5-3), and Washington 5-3).
The cbssports.com Power Rankings from yesterday have the Raptors 6th and the Cavs 15th. We've achieved mediocrity!
My initial impression is this game is a bad matchup for the Cavs. The Raptors are excellent defensively, ranking 3rd in opponents’ points per game. The Cavs rank 23rd in scoring so this is a bad matchup. I don’t expect the Cavs to score 100 points this game.
Also, the Raptors lead the NBA in steal percentage and it’s not close. The Cavs are 29th in opponent steal percentage, so it’s the best team at stealing the ball against the second worst at protecting it. Should be a lot of turnovers for the Cavs.
The Raptors also lead the league in offensive rebound percentage while the Cavs are 28th in defensive rebound percentage, so I expect the Raptors to feast on the offensive glass.
The Raptors are averaging over 14 offensive rebounds per game and are forcing 16 turnovers, so they tend to take significantly more shots than their opponents. I expect that to happen tonight.
Offensively the Raptors rank 21st in scoring despite all the offensive rebounds. They’re not particularly good at scoring, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage. They depend on taking more shots. This could be a fairly low scoring affair, especially if the Cavs can limit the turnovers.
The Raptors rank 24th in rate of 3-point shots and 19th in accuracy, so threes are not their thing. As a team they’re making only 32.8%. They’re not great at 2-point shots, either, making 43.1%. Their game plan is to play great defense and gets lots of steals and offensive rebounds to give them extra chances to score. Since the Cavs are near the bottom at protecting the ball and defensive rebounding, they are very vulnerable to what the Raptors excel at.
Defensively the Raptors are average in terms of effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage, and free throw rate. They play an aggressive, gambling defense and go for steals. They foul at a little higher rate than average.
These teams are a real contrast because the Cavs are normally a mix of bigs and smalls while the Raptors are pretty much all wings. With the 6’8” Siakam out the starting lineup consists of Achiuwa (6’8”), Anunoby (6’7”), Barnes (6’7”), Gary Trent Jr (6’5”), and Fred VanVleet (6’1”). The guys off the bench are 6’9”, 6’9”, 6’7”, and 6’7”. They’re all about the same size except for Vanvleet.
Will Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley be able to exploit their height advantage inside while being guarded by 6’7” and 6’8” guys? We will see.
Brilliant rookie Scotty Barnes is averaging 18.1 points and 8.9 rebounds. He missed the last two games with a jammed thumb and they won anyway. He is not on today’s ESPN injury report so I assume he’s good to go.
Fred VanVleet is averaging 39 minutes per game at point guard. He’s averaging 20.3 pts and 5.6 assists but shooting just 41% overall and 37% on 3’s. SF Og Anunoby is playing 37 minutes with a line of 18.8/5.2/7.2. Gary Trent Jr is averaging 15.1 ppg on 38.6%. Precious Achiuwa is mainly a rebounder, averaging 8.0 ppg on 34.5% shooting.
The Raptors lead the NBA in preventing points in the paint. Despite having no starters over 6’8” they defend the paint better than anyone. They only rank 28th in block percentage, however, so my guess is they pack the paint and get a lot of steals.
These guys are all in the 6’5” to 6’9” area and they play an aggressive, trapping defense that cuts off passing lanes. Garland, Sexton, and Rubio need to be very careful with the ball and not try to force a lot of passes into tiny windows against these rangy, athletic defenders. Lobs to Allen and Mobley may be the best approach to get over the shorter defenders. The Raptors are average at defending the 3-point shot, so the Cavs should take the 3-pointer when available and hope they get hot like the last game where they hit 50% thanks to Garland, Cedi, and Windler.
For the Cavs to have a chance at an upset they need to:
1. Find a way to minimize turnovers against the NBA leader in steals. Protect the ball and avoid risky passes and overpassing. When the Cavs guards attack the rim they need to avoid getting stripped or having passes to the corners being swiped. The Raptors are not big inside so either lob to Allen or Mobley or finish with a floater or layup.
2. Everybody on the defensive glass when the shot goes up. No leaking out or spectating. Don’t let the Raptors get 20+ offensive boards. Get the long rebounds off missed 3’s.
3. Allen and Mobley need to dominate inside with dunks off lobs or post-up buckets against smaller defenders. When they get doubled or tripled, kick it out for an open 3.
4. Try to wear down VanVleet (who played 43 minutes the last game). They obviously don’t trust their backup point guard. Whoever FVV is guarding needs to keep moving so he can’t rest on defense (he scored 33 on Weds). Garland and Sexton should take turns running him off his feet. He needs to be very tired by the 4th quarter.
5. Hit a high percentage of 3-point shots.
Okoro is still out which is unfortunate because it would be great to have the option to put him on Anunoby or Trent. But against a top three defensive team the Cavs need offense so Cedi or Windler might be a better choice.
Here are a few blurbs from John Hollinger’s season preview:
The burden on Siakam and VanVleet (who showed similar strain en route to 53.4 true shooting) will only increase this season with the lower-usage Trent Jr. replacing [Norman] Powell and [Kyle] Lowry gone. Even with a better bench than a year ago, Toronto is in danger of having a bottom-10 offense.
…the Raptors don’t need elite offense to make this roster work. With big, rangy forwards like Anunoby, Barnes and Siakam, they project as a pretty hellacious defensive team even without much help from the center spot. Anunoby, in fact, seems likely to play at the five in some lineups, and Nick Nurse loves to press and trap with this group….
Losing Lowry, the scrapping, beating heart of his organization for so long, will leave a dent, but most of the other comparisons to a year ago are more positive. The core players are unlikely to miss so many games this time around, most notably, and the second unit should be more solid as well. Plus, whatever you think of the centers, they can’t be worse than last year’s group.
It’s harder to define what the impact might have been from playing all year out of a hotel in Tampa, but one suspects coming back home can only be positive for the Raptors as well. They no longer have the pieces to challenge the East’s elite, but between Nurse’s schemes and some menacing defensive talent, they should challenge for a playoff spot.
The cbssports.com Power Rankings from yesterday have the Raptors 6th and the Cavs 15th. We've achieved mediocrity!
My initial impression is this game is a bad matchup for the Cavs. The Raptors are excellent defensively, ranking 3rd in opponents’ points per game. The Cavs rank 23rd in scoring so this is a bad matchup. I don’t expect the Cavs to score 100 points this game.
Also, the Raptors lead the NBA in steal percentage and it’s not close. The Cavs are 29th in opponent steal percentage, so it’s the best team at stealing the ball against the second worst at protecting it. Should be a lot of turnovers for the Cavs.
The Raptors also lead the league in offensive rebound percentage while the Cavs are 28th in defensive rebound percentage, so I expect the Raptors to feast on the offensive glass.
The Raptors are averaging over 14 offensive rebounds per game and are forcing 16 turnovers, so they tend to take significantly more shots than their opponents. I expect that to happen tonight.
Offensively the Raptors rank 21st in scoring despite all the offensive rebounds. They’re not particularly good at scoring, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage. They depend on taking more shots. This could be a fairly low scoring affair, especially if the Cavs can limit the turnovers.
The Raptors rank 24th in rate of 3-point shots and 19th in accuracy, so threes are not their thing. As a team they’re making only 32.8%. They’re not great at 2-point shots, either, making 43.1%. Their game plan is to play great defense and gets lots of steals and offensive rebounds to give them extra chances to score. Since the Cavs are near the bottom at protecting the ball and defensive rebounding, they are very vulnerable to what the Raptors excel at.
Defensively the Raptors are average in terms of effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage, and free throw rate. They play an aggressive, gambling defense and go for steals. They foul at a little higher rate than average.
These teams are a real contrast because the Cavs are normally a mix of bigs and smalls while the Raptors are pretty much all wings. With the 6’8” Siakam out the starting lineup consists of Achiuwa (6’8”), Anunoby (6’7”), Barnes (6’7”), Gary Trent Jr (6’5”), and Fred VanVleet (6’1”). The guys off the bench are 6’9”, 6’9”, 6’7”, and 6’7”. They’re all about the same size except for Vanvleet.
Will Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley be able to exploit their height advantage inside while being guarded by 6’7” and 6’8” guys? We will see.
Brilliant rookie Scotty Barnes is averaging 18.1 points and 8.9 rebounds. He missed the last two games with a jammed thumb and they won anyway. He is not on today’s ESPN injury report so I assume he’s good to go.
Fred VanVleet is averaging 39 minutes per game at point guard. He’s averaging 20.3 pts and 5.6 assists but shooting just 41% overall and 37% on 3’s. SF Og Anunoby is playing 37 minutes with a line of 18.8/5.2/7.2. Gary Trent Jr is averaging 15.1 ppg on 38.6%. Precious Achiuwa is mainly a rebounder, averaging 8.0 ppg on 34.5% shooting.
The Raptors lead the NBA in preventing points in the paint. Despite having no starters over 6’8” they defend the paint better than anyone. They only rank 28th in block percentage, however, so my guess is they pack the paint and get a lot of steals.
These guys are all in the 6’5” to 6’9” area and they play an aggressive, trapping defense that cuts off passing lanes. Garland, Sexton, and Rubio need to be very careful with the ball and not try to force a lot of passes into tiny windows against these rangy, athletic defenders. Lobs to Allen and Mobley may be the best approach to get over the shorter defenders. The Raptors are average at defending the 3-point shot, so the Cavs should take the 3-pointer when available and hope they get hot like the last game where they hit 50% thanks to Garland, Cedi, and Windler.
For the Cavs to have a chance at an upset they need to:
1. Find a way to minimize turnovers against the NBA leader in steals. Protect the ball and avoid risky passes and overpassing. When the Cavs guards attack the rim they need to avoid getting stripped or having passes to the corners being swiped. The Raptors are not big inside so either lob to Allen or Mobley or finish with a floater or layup.
2. Everybody on the defensive glass when the shot goes up. No leaking out or spectating. Don’t let the Raptors get 20+ offensive boards. Get the long rebounds off missed 3’s.
3. Allen and Mobley need to dominate inside with dunks off lobs or post-up buckets against smaller defenders. When they get doubled or tripled, kick it out for an open 3.
4. Try to wear down VanVleet (who played 43 minutes the last game). They obviously don’t trust their backup point guard. Whoever FVV is guarding needs to keep moving so he can’t rest on defense (he scored 33 on Weds). Garland and Sexton should take turns running him off his feet. He needs to be very tired by the 4th quarter.
5. Hit a high percentage of 3-point shots.
Okoro is still out which is unfortunate because it would be great to have the option to put him on Anunoby or Trent. But against a top three defensive team the Cavs need offense so Cedi or Windler might be a better choice.
Here are a few blurbs from John Hollinger’s season preview:
The burden on Siakam and VanVleet (who showed similar strain en route to 53.4 true shooting) will only increase this season with the lower-usage Trent Jr. replacing [Norman] Powell and [Kyle] Lowry gone. Even with a better bench than a year ago, Toronto is in danger of having a bottom-10 offense.
…the Raptors don’t need elite offense to make this roster work. With big, rangy forwards like Anunoby, Barnes and Siakam, they project as a pretty hellacious defensive team even without much help from the center spot. Anunoby, in fact, seems likely to play at the five in some lineups, and Nick Nurse loves to press and trap with this group….
Losing Lowry, the scrapping, beating heart of his organization for so long, will leave a dent, but most of the other comparisons to a year ago are more positive. The core players are unlikely to miss so many games this time around, most notably, and the second unit should be more solid as well. Plus, whatever you think of the centers, they can’t be worse than last year’s group.
It’s harder to define what the impact might have been from playing all year out of a hotel in Tampa, but one suspects coming back home can only be positive for the Raptors as well. They no longer have the pieces to challenge the East’s elite, but between Nurse’s schemes and some menacing defensive talent, they should challenge for a playoff spot.
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