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Winners of three straight and 6 of their last 8 the high-flying Cavaliers land in the Big Apple to take on the 6-3 Knicks. The Knicks started 5-1 before losing to Toronto and Indiana. On Friday they beat Milwaukee, but the Bucks were without Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, and Donte DiVincenzo. The Bucks are 4-5, the Pacers 3-7.
They had impressive wins over Chicago and Philly early, but they have not looked that impressive in their last four games.
Last year the Knicks led the NBA in scoring defense and were just OK offensively. So far this season it’s been the reverse. The Knicks rank 4th in scoring at 113.0 ppg. They’re average in points in the paint and below average on fast break points. They’re mainly a three-point team, ranking 5th in percentage of points on 3’s and 26th in percentage of points on 2’s.
Here are the three-point percentages of their main shooters:
Randle 35.3%
Barrett 40.0%
Fournier 39.1%
Walker 48.1%
Rose 45.5%
Burks 40.6%
Very impressive. As a team they’re 5th in 3-point percentage.
Job One for the Cavs’ defense will be to contest as many 3’s as possible. With the height the Cavs have inside and the Knicks not much of a 2-point team, the emphasis has to be on defending the 3 even if it results in some blow-bys.
The Knicks are excellent at ball protection, ranking 6th in turnovers per play, and they get fouled a lot, ranking 3rd in free throws per possession. The Cavs’ defense fouls less than any team in the league, so it will be interesting to see if the Knicks can draw some fouls.
The Cavs can’t expect to get many turnovers so they’ll have to contest the 3’s and get the first rebound. The Knicks are 10th in offensive rebound percentage and the Cavs will have to do better than the 19 offensive boards they gave up to Toronto.
Defensively the Knicks have regressed, ranking 18th in scoring after leading the NBA last year. They are great at defending the paint, ranking 3rd thanks to 7’0” Mitchell Robinson and 6’8”, 250-pound Julius Randle. The Knicks are 9th in block percentage. Where they fall down a bit is in steals (22nd), defensive rebounding (17th), free throws (17th), and opponents 3-point percentage (18th).
This might be a game where the Cavs will have to hit some 3’s. The Cavs are 4th in points in the paint per game; the Knicks are 3rd in defending the paint. Something has to give.
This could be another close, relatively low scoring game. The Knicks are 4th in scoring but over the last eight games the Cavs are allowing only 99 points per game. Offensively, the Cavs’ strength, which is scoring in the paint, is countered by the Knicks’ excellent interior defense.
This one could come down to 3-point shooting - the Cavs’ ability to contain the Knicks’ outstanding long range shooters and the Cavs’ ability to knock down some 3’s against a team that defends the rim extremely well. I don’t think Sexton, Garland, and Rubio will have a lot of success dribbling into the paint tonight unless they’re drawing in the defense for a kick out. However, if Garland can get by 31-year-old Kemba Walker it might set up some lobs to Mobley or Allen or kickouts to the corner.
Julius Randle is off to a great start with a line of 21.9 pts, 11.3 boards, and 5.7 assists. He’s shooting only 42.7% so he’s a high volume shooter. I expect the Cavs will put Mobley on him so that should be a great matchup to watch. Randle is good at backing down lighter opponents and drawing fouls.
R.J. Barrett is averaging 19.2 pts and 5.8 rebounds. He’s more efficient than Randle, shooting 47.4% and 40.0%. He's going to be a challenge for Dean Wade and whoever else guards him - probably Cedi. Okoro is still out.
Evan Fournier is averaging 15.3 points on 41.5% and 39.1%. At 6'6" he's a matchup problem for Sexton. I expect Rubio to guard him most of the time so Sexton and Garland can guard Walker and Quickley.
Kemba Walker, age 31, is at 12.7 points on 44.0% and 48.1%. Most of these guys are better shooting 3’s than 2’s.
Derrick Rose, age 33, comes off the bench for 12.7 points on 46.3% and 45.5%. Ellis Burks, 30, is hitting 40.6% from deep.
This is a veteran bunch with the exceptions of Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin. Quickley and Toppin are averaging 15 minutes per game and 5.7 and 7.0 points.
I’m expecting a low scoring slugfest similar to the 102-101 win over Toronto. I think the Cavs’ defense will hold the Knicks well under their season average of 113 points and I don’t think the Cavs shoot 3’s well enough to get much over 100 points, if any. The Knicks are giving up 109 points per game, so I see both teams scoring about 100.
For those who are interested in the Knicks, here is a piece of John Hollinger’s season preview:
…this team projects to be the anti-Knicks: a hard-nosed team with a lot of solid players and no superstars.
[A lot like the Cavs!]
On the downside, there are regression red flags all over the place here. The 2020-21 defensive numbers are almost certainly unsustainable, and Randle’s ability to maintain last year’s percentages from the perimeter seems questionable as well. Randle and Barrett also were first and second in the league in minutes; even if Thibodeau’s tendency to run his players into the ground doesn’t take some of their juice this season, sheer luck informs us that they’re unlikely to be available quite as much this time around.
And yet, the Knicks have a wind at their back in other respects. Walker should be a massive upgrade on the point-guard play from a year ago, and the Knicks (gasp) have actual young players who could improve this year, notably Barrett, Toppin and Quickley. Toppin, in particular, seemed to turn the corner late after struggling most of the year. Offensively, the addition of Fournier, while likely an overpay, unquestionably adds some offensive dynamism to an attack that easily bogged down into Randle iso-ball a year ago.
Size it all up, and the Knicks are likely to end up in roughly the same place. They aren’t going to threaten the East’s upper crust, but with the backcourt upgrades and the young-ish roster, enough of what happened last year should carry over to comfortably return them to the playoffs.
They had impressive wins over Chicago and Philly early, but they have not looked that impressive in their last four games.
Last year the Knicks led the NBA in scoring defense and were just OK offensively. So far this season it’s been the reverse. The Knicks rank 4th in scoring at 113.0 ppg. They’re average in points in the paint and below average on fast break points. They’re mainly a three-point team, ranking 5th in percentage of points on 3’s and 26th in percentage of points on 2’s.
Here are the three-point percentages of their main shooters:
Randle 35.3%
Barrett 40.0%
Fournier 39.1%
Walker 48.1%
Rose 45.5%
Burks 40.6%
Very impressive. As a team they’re 5th in 3-point percentage.
Job One for the Cavs’ defense will be to contest as many 3’s as possible. With the height the Cavs have inside and the Knicks not much of a 2-point team, the emphasis has to be on defending the 3 even if it results in some blow-bys.
The Knicks are excellent at ball protection, ranking 6th in turnovers per play, and they get fouled a lot, ranking 3rd in free throws per possession. The Cavs’ defense fouls less than any team in the league, so it will be interesting to see if the Knicks can draw some fouls.
The Cavs can’t expect to get many turnovers so they’ll have to contest the 3’s and get the first rebound. The Knicks are 10th in offensive rebound percentage and the Cavs will have to do better than the 19 offensive boards they gave up to Toronto.
Defensively the Knicks have regressed, ranking 18th in scoring after leading the NBA last year. They are great at defending the paint, ranking 3rd thanks to 7’0” Mitchell Robinson and 6’8”, 250-pound Julius Randle. The Knicks are 9th in block percentage. Where they fall down a bit is in steals (22nd), defensive rebounding (17th), free throws (17th), and opponents 3-point percentage (18th).
This might be a game where the Cavs will have to hit some 3’s. The Cavs are 4th in points in the paint per game; the Knicks are 3rd in defending the paint. Something has to give.
This could be another close, relatively low scoring game. The Knicks are 4th in scoring but over the last eight games the Cavs are allowing only 99 points per game. Offensively, the Cavs’ strength, which is scoring in the paint, is countered by the Knicks’ excellent interior defense.
This one could come down to 3-point shooting - the Cavs’ ability to contain the Knicks’ outstanding long range shooters and the Cavs’ ability to knock down some 3’s against a team that defends the rim extremely well. I don’t think Sexton, Garland, and Rubio will have a lot of success dribbling into the paint tonight unless they’re drawing in the defense for a kick out. However, if Garland can get by 31-year-old Kemba Walker it might set up some lobs to Mobley or Allen or kickouts to the corner.
Julius Randle is off to a great start with a line of 21.9 pts, 11.3 boards, and 5.7 assists. He’s shooting only 42.7% so he’s a high volume shooter. I expect the Cavs will put Mobley on him so that should be a great matchup to watch. Randle is good at backing down lighter opponents and drawing fouls.
R.J. Barrett is averaging 19.2 pts and 5.8 rebounds. He’s more efficient than Randle, shooting 47.4% and 40.0%. He's going to be a challenge for Dean Wade and whoever else guards him - probably Cedi. Okoro is still out.
Evan Fournier is averaging 15.3 points on 41.5% and 39.1%. At 6'6" he's a matchup problem for Sexton. I expect Rubio to guard him most of the time so Sexton and Garland can guard Walker and Quickley.
Kemba Walker, age 31, is at 12.7 points on 44.0% and 48.1%. Most of these guys are better shooting 3’s than 2’s.
Derrick Rose, age 33, comes off the bench for 12.7 points on 46.3% and 45.5%. Ellis Burks, 30, is hitting 40.6% from deep.
This is a veteran bunch with the exceptions of Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin. Quickley and Toppin are averaging 15 minutes per game and 5.7 and 7.0 points.
I’m expecting a low scoring slugfest similar to the 102-101 win over Toronto. I think the Cavs’ defense will hold the Knicks well under their season average of 113 points and I don’t think the Cavs shoot 3’s well enough to get much over 100 points, if any. The Knicks are giving up 109 points per game, so I see both teams scoring about 100.
For those who are interested in the Knicks, here is a piece of John Hollinger’s season preview:
…this team projects to be the anti-Knicks: a hard-nosed team with a lot of solid players and no superstars.
[A lot like the Cavs!]
On the downside, there are regression red flags all over the place here. The 2020-21 defensive numbers are almost certainly unsustainable, and Randle’s ability to maintain last year’s percentages from the perimeter seems questionable as well. Randle and Barrett also were first and second in the league in minutes; even if Thibodeau’s tendency to run his players into the ground doesn’t take some of their juice this season, sheer luck informs us that they’re unlikely to be available quite as much this time around.
And yet, the Knicks have a wind at their back in other respects. Walker should be a massive upgrade on the point-guard play from a year ago, and the Knicks (gasp) have actual young players who could improve this year, notably Barrett, Toppin and Quickley. Toppin, in particular, seemed to turn the corner late after struggling most of the year. Offensively, the addition of Fournier, while likely an overpay, unquestionably adds some offensive dynamism to an attack that easily bogged down into Randle iso-ball a year ago.
Size it all up, and the Knicks are likely to end up in roughly the same place. They aren’t going to threaten the East’s upper crust, but with the backcourt upgrades and the young-ish roster, enough of what happened last year should carry over to comfortably return them to the playoffs.
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