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The Cavaliers, with two days off to enjoy some home cooking, take on the 7-3 Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 2-2 on the road. Their last two games have been wins, beating Memphis by 28 points and Milwaukee by 7, both at home. Like the Cavs they were off Monday and Tuesday. By the way, the thread title is not a mistake. We are really playing a home game.
Also like the Cavs, the Wizards are short-handed. They have three big men out; Rui Hachimura, 6’8”, who averaged 31 minutes last year, Davis Bertans, 6’10”, and Thomas Bryant, also 6’10”. Bryant is their starting center and Bertans backs up Hachimura at power forward.
It seems the Cavs may be catching them at a good time with their starting center and top two power forwards out. At center they are starting Daniel Gafford, 6’9”, 234, but Montrezl Harrell comes of the bench for 30 minutes a game. Harrell, 6’7”, 240, is averaging 17.7 ppg and 9.1 rebounds on 63.6% from the field. This guy is a load - very physical and aggressive, kind of a Zion-Lite.
Bradley Beal is their biggest weapon, averaging 24.2 ppg on 42.6% shooting. Inexplicably he’s only hitting 25.4% from deep against a career average of 37.5%. Must be the new ball. He plays 36 minutes per game and takes 22 shots.
Their point guard is Spencer Dinwiddie, averaging 15.9 ppg on 42%. SF Kyle Kuzma is averaging 14.1 ppg on 41.9%. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 9.3 ppg and is shooting 40.4% on 3’s. The Wizards start the three guards, Kuzma, and Gafford.
The Wizards rank 7th in the NBA in scoring at 110.3 ppg. They are 2nd in points in the paint and 29th in fast break points. The numbers reveal them to be a team that walks it up, gets into their offense, and attacks the rim. They rank 24th in 3-point rate, 22nd in 3-point percentage, and 27th in percentage of points from 3’s. This is not a team that runs the floor or jacks up 3’s. They get into the paint, score from inside, and draw fouls, ranking 4th in free throws per play.
This team seems like a favorable matchup for the Cavs, who are very good at defending the rim with Allen and Mobley. The Cavs foul less than any team in the league so we’ll see if the Wizards can draw fouls inside.
The Wizards are not a good 3-point team so I expect they will challenge the Cavs in the paint. Should be an interesting battle; strength against strength.
The Wizards rank 27th in offensive rebound rate, so that should help the Cavs, who have had problems on the defensive glass. Harrell is a beast, though, and he’ll be pushing his way to the rim and looking for put-backs. He leads their team by far in free throw attempts per game and is an 82% shooter from the stripe. He had a game against the Cavs a couple of years ago where he had 19 points and 9 rebounds in 21 minutes. Another game against the Cavs he scored 20 points in 20 minutes. He’s had a lot of success against the Cavs and they need to be ready for his intensity and physicality. Allen against Harrell should be fun to watch.
The Wizards rank 12th in scoring defense. They excel in defending the 3-point shot, ranking 1st at 29.2%. However, they rank 27th in opponents’ points in the paint.
The Cavs should forget about the 3 and pound it inside on these guys. They also rank 27th in percentage of points allowed on free throws. You can score in the paint and draw fouls.
The Wizards block shots well, ranking 6th, but are only 28th in steals per defensive play. They don’t gamble much. Their main emphasis is contesting the 3-point shot, making you beat them with 2’s.
The game plan for the Cavs must be to take it inside. With Bryant, Bertans, and Hachimura out the Wizards don’t have a lot of size on the front line. Kuzma and Gafford are 6’9”, but that’s it.
I wouldn’t shoot any 3’s unless they’re wide open. The Wizards have tall guards; Beal is 6’4”, KCP is 6’5”, and Dinwiddie is 6’6”. Their small forwards, Kuzma and Avdija, are 6’9”. They have the height on the perimeter to switch and contest 3’s all day. Where they are vulnerable is in the paint. The Cavs should kick it inside to Allen and Mobley for mismatches in the paint and only kick it back out if the bigs get doubled and there’s a 3-point shooter undefended.
With all that height on the perimeter I expect Garland to be unable to get off many 3’s. He should go for penetration and lobs.
On defense the Cavs should focus on defending the paint and let them shoot 3’s if necessary. The Wizards are shooting only 27.7% on 3’s this year on the road. Take them out of their game and force them to do what they are not good at.
Isaac Okoro will be ready to return for the Cavs and I can see them putting him on Beal. Garland may be a target for the Wizards’ offense since he will be guarding someone much taller. KCP is hitting over 40% of his 3’s so that could be a problem when Garland gets switched off on him.
Here’s a good analysis of the Wizards’ defense from bulletsforever.com:
The Wizards are doing a lot right defensively. They’re allowing the fewest at-rim field goal attempts AND three-point range. Teams that limit at-rim attempts typically allow a high number of threes. Washington is limiting attempts from both areas.
Preventing shots in the areas NBA teams prefer means Wizards opponents are taking two-point jumpers and other low-efficiency shots. Washington is forcing the most attempts from 3-10 feet. This is ideal — the 3-10 foot range is typically among the least efficient in the NBA. Over the first few games, opponents were shooting a high percentage on these attempts, but the conversion rate has dropped over the 3-4 games.
Washington is forcing opponents to take loads of midrange jumpers — from 10 feet out to the three-point line. For Wizards opponents so far this season, 48.3% of their field goal attempts have been two point attempts from outside the restricted area. Second in this category: the Utah Jazz at 43.1%.
It’s good that Washington is limiting at-rim attempts because they’re not particularly effective at lowering opponent shooting percentages in that area. At 68.2%, the Wizards have been a little worse than average (67.2%) in defending at-rim attempts. Their ability to prevent these attempts, while also chasing opponents off the three-point line is a good foundation of a strong defense.
Also like the Cavs, the Wizards are short-handed. They have three big men out; Rui Hachimura, 6’8”, who averaged 31 minutes last year, Davis Bertans, 6’10”, and Thomas Bryant, also 6’10”. Bryant is their starting center and Bertans backs up Hachimura at power forward.
It seems the Cavs may be catching them at a good time with their starting center and top two power forwards out. At center they are starting Daniel Gafford, 6’9”, 234, but Montrezl Harrell comes of the bench for 30 minutes a game. Harrell, 6’7”, 240, is averaging 17.7 ppg and 9.1 rebounds on 63.6% from the field. This guy is a load - very physical and aggressive, kind of a Zion-Lite.
Bradley Beal is their biggest weapon, averaging 24.2 ppg on 42.6% shooting. Inexplicably he’s only hitting 25.4% from deep against a career average of 37.5%. Must be the new ball. He plays 36 minutes per game and takes 22 shots.
Their point guard is Spencer Dinwiddie, averaging 15.9 ppg on 42%. SF Kyle Kuzma is averaging 14.1 ppg on 41.9%. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 9.3 ppg and is shooting 40.4% on 3’s. The Wizards start the three guards, Kuzma, and Gafford.
The Wizards rank 7th in the NBA in scoring at 110.3 ppg. They are 2nd in points in the paint and 29th in fast break points. The numbers reveal them to be a team that walks it up, gets into their offense, and attacks the rim. They rank 24th in 3-point rate, 22nd in 3-point percentage, and 27th in percentage of points from 3’s. This is not a team that runs the floor or jacks up 3’s. They get into the paint, score from inside, and draw fouls, ranking 4th in free throws per play.
This team seems like a favorable matchup for the Cavs, who are very good at defending the rim with Allen and Mobley. The Cavs foul less than any team in the league so we’ll see if the Wizards can draw fouls inside.
The Wizards are not a good 3-point team so I expect they will challenge the Cavs in the paint. Should be an interesting battle; strength against strength.
The Wizards rank 27th in offensive rebound rate, so that should help the Cavs, who have had problems on the defensive glass. Harrell is a beast, though, and he’ll be pushing his way to the rim and looking for put-backs. He leads their team by far in free throw attempts per game and is an 82% shooter from the stripe. He had a game against the Cavs a couple of years ago where he had 19 points and 9 rebounds in 21 minutes. Another game against the Cavs he scored 20 points in 20 minutes. He’s had a lot of success against the Cavs and they need to be ready for his intensity and physicality. Allen against Harrell should be fun to watch.
The Wizards rank 12th in scoring defense. They excel in defending the 3-point shot, ranking 1st at 29.2%. However, they rank 27th in opponents’ points in the paint.
The Cavs should forget about the 3 and pound it inside on these guys. They also rank 27th in percentage of points allowed on free throws. You can score in the paint and draw fouls.
The Wizards block shots well, ranking 6th, but are only 28th in steals per defensive play. They don’t gamble much. Their main emphasis is contesting the 3-point shot, making you beat them with 2’s.
The game plan for the Cavs must be to take it inside. With Bryant, Bertans, and Hachimura out the Wizards don’t have a lot of size on the front line. Kuzma and Gafford are 6’9”, but that’s it.
I wouldn’t shoot any 3’s unless they’re wide open. The Wizards have tall guards; Beal is 6’4”, KCP is 6’5”, and Dinwiddie is 6’6”. Their small forwards, Kuzma and Avdija, are 6’9”. They have the height on the perimeter to switch and contest 3’s all day. Where they are vulnerable is in the paint. The Cavs should kick it inside to Allen and Mobley for mismatches in the paint and only kick it back out if the bigs get doubled and there’s a 3-point shooter undefended.
With all that height on the perimeter I expect Garland to be unable to get off many 3’s. He should go for penetration and lobs.
On defense the Cavs should focus on defending the paint and let them shoot 3’s if necessary. The Wizards are shooting only 27.7% on 3’s this year on the road. Take them out of their game and force them to do what they are not good at.
Isaac Okoro will be ready to return for the Cavs and I can see them putting him on Beal. Garland may be a target for the Wizards’ offense since he will be guarding someone much taller. KCP is hitting over 40% of his 3’s so that could be a problem when Garland gets switched off on him.
Here’s a good analysis of the Wizards’ defense from bulletsforever.com:
The Wizards are doing a lot right defensively. They’re allowing the fewest at-rim field goal attempts AND three-point range. Teams that limit at-rim attempts typically allow a high number of threes. Washington is limiting attempts from both areas.
Preventing shots in the areas NBA teams prefer means Wizards opponents are taking two-point jumpers and other low-efficiency shots. Washington is forcing the most attempts from 3-10 feet. This is ideal — the 3-10 foot range is typically among the least efficient in the NBA. Over the first few games, opponents were shooting a high percentage on these attempts, but the conversion rate has dropped over the 3-4 games.
Washington is forcing opponents to take loads of midrange jumpers — from 10 feet out to the three-point line. For Wizards opponents so far this season, 48.3% of their field goal attempts have been two point attempts from outside the restricted area. Second in this category: the Utah Jazz at 43.1%.
It’s good that Washington is limiting at-rim attempts because they’re not particularly effective at lowering opponent shooting percentages in that area. At 68.2%, the Wizards have been a little worse than average (67.2%) in defending at-rim attempts. Their ability to prevent these attempts, while also chasing opponents off the three-point line is a good foundation of a strong defense.
