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As we hit the quarter pole, the Cavaliers, fresh off a nasty beatdown of the Dallas Mavericks, head to Miami, where they have had no success in recent years, to take on the 13-8 Heat. The Cavs have lost 11 of their last 12 to the Heat with the only win coming at home in overtime in February, 2020, in a game Jimmy Butler missed.
The Cavs lost their last four games to the Mavericks by an average of 24.5 points per game before turning it around Monday night. They lost their last four games in Miami by an average of 18.5 ppg, so maybe they can turn that around, too.
The Heat have been very good so far, beating Milwaukee (by 42), Brooklyn, Charlotte, Memphis, Chicago, and Utah twice. Those are all winning teams. The Heat split with Washington in two close games.
The Heat are 6-2 at home; 7-6 on the road. They had a day off yesterday after playing at home on Monday, losing to Denver with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Markieff Morris out with injuries.
Injuries are definitely the wild card in this game. Osman and Wade have been ruled out for the Cavs. Markieff Morris is out for the Heat while Butler, Adebayo, and Dedmon are questionable. The Heat might be sending a skeleton crew out there.
Adebayo has a sprained right thumb and will be a game-time decision. He’s right-handed so even if he plays it may affect his shooting. He had 24 points Monday so he must have hurt it in practice yesterday.
Butler (tailbone) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports. Butler missed Monday's matchup with the Nuggets due to the bruised tailbone, and his availability for Wednesday remains in question. Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Dewayne Dedmon (knee) are also questionable, though Tyler Herro (fatigue) is expected to play. - Rotowire
When healthy the Heat are about average offensively, ranking 13th in points per game and 21st in points in the paint. They’re average in 3-point rate and 3-point percentage. They’re very good at making 2-point shots and getting fouled, ranking 4th in free throws per possession. They are very strong on the offensive glass, ranking 5th in offensive rebound percentage. They take it to the hole and usually make the shot, get fouled, or get the offensive rebound.
A big key will be whether they can successfully attack the rim against Cleveland’s bigs. Rim protection and defensive rebounding will be critical for the Cavs.
Where the Heat really shine is on defense where they rank 3rd in opponent’s points per game. The Cavaliers are up to 2nd, so this game will feature two of the three best defenses in the NBA. Points will be hard to come by on both sides.
The Heat are the league’s worst shot blocking team by far at 2.8%. Nobody on their team averages even one-half a block per game. Surprisingly, the Cavs are the second worst at 4.3%. The Cavs will be able to get their shots up. However, the Heat are 2nd at preventing points in the paint despite the lack of shot blocking which is odd. Maybe they get a lot of strips in the paint. They are 8th in forcing turnovers so that’s probably the reason.
Opponents shoot more 3’s against the Heat than against any other team (41 per game). They obviously respect the Heat’s ability to defend the paint. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs attack the league’s second best interior defense. The Heat only rank 25th in opponents’ 2-point percentage so I don’t understand why teams don't shoot more 2's against them.
The Heat must be one of the smallest teams in the league. Their starting lineup is 6’9”, 6’7”, 6’5”, 6’5”, and 6’0”. That explains why they block so few shots, but they use their quickness and athleticism to force turnovers, ranking 8th in that category. The Cavs are second worst in the league at turnovers per possession, so a big key offensively will be to protect the ball and not give up a lot of transition points off turnovers. I'm looking at you, Darius.
The Cavs need to use their huge height advantage on the front line to pound it down low and take it to the hole or shoot jump hooks. The Heat will double the ball so the Cavs need to be ready to kick it out when the Heat floods the paint with defenders looking for the strip. Lobs to Allen and Mobley should be very effective against guys 6’7” and below.
The Heat have one seven-footer in 32-year-old Dewayne Dedmon, who averages 14 minutes per game. He is questionable with a bruised knee. If he is out tonight along with Adebayo then they will be playing this game without a center other than undrafted rookie Omer Yurtseven, 7'0", 264, averaging 3 minutes per game. However, the one game where Yurtseven got 23 minutes he had 14 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals. But he also committed five fouls. He's a member of the Turkish national team so Cedi will have a good scouting report on him.
If Adebayo and Dedmon are out their tallest player other than Yurtseven is 6’8” Udonis Haslem, who is 41 years old.
On defense the Cavs need to use their size advantage to force the Heat to fire from long range. Just don’t let Robinson or Herro get going. When they attack the rim it’s important not to get in foul trouble as the Heat excel at drawing shooting fouls. Jimmy Butler is averaging 8.6 free throws per game and you know the refs will give him all the calls against the Cavs.
Butler at age 32 is having another great year at 23.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 51.9% from the field but only 20.0% on 3’s, so the Cavs should stay in front of him and try to keep him out of the lane. Force him to shoot over you as much as possible. The outcome of this game could come down to whether this man plays or not. The Heat are 2-2 when he sits and 11-6 when he plays.
Tyler Herro is averaging 21.8 ppg on 45.4% and 39.8%. He scares me with his 3-point shooting as he can get very hot. He doesn’t usually start but is third in minutes per game.
Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds on 51.9%. He does not shoot 3’s but at 6’9” and super athletic he’s a load to defend. It will be interesting to see if they put Okoro on him or one of the bigs. He’s their starting center so if he’s out it will be huge. He had 24 points and 13 boards Monday.
P.J. Tucker, age 36, 6’5”, 245 pounds, has started every game and only attempts 5.2 field goals per game, averaging 6.9 points. He’s in for his defense and screen setting. He’s their version of Isaac Okoro, only stronger and much more experienced.
Duncan Robinson is averaging only 10.8 points on 36% from the field and 32.8% from deep. He’s a career 41.0% shooter on 3’s who is well below that this year. Must be the new ball. He always seems to shoot really well against the Cavs, however.
Kyle Lowry at age 35 is still starting at point guard and playing 34 minutes a game, tied for most with Butler. His scoring average has dropped from 19.4 to 12.5 in the last two seasons. He’s primarily a passer now with 7.7 assists per game - second highest of his career. He’s hitting 31% on 3’s so he’s another guy the Cavs need to slough off on and keep out of the paint even if it means letting him shoot from outside.
I wonder if the Heat will be able to get away with starting three guys aged 36, 35,and 32 the entire season and be fresh for the playoffs. Lowry and Butler are each averaging 34 minutes.
This should be an interesting matchup between an older, smaller, but very skilled team who is very tough at home against a younger and much bigger squad. One matchup to watch will be Kyle Lowry against Darius Garland at point guard (14 year age difference). If Garland can beat old man Lowry off the dribble and get into the paint both the lob and the floater will be available against their small front line. Maybe the layup, too, as these guys have no shot blockers.
On offense the Cavs should pound it inside and take advantage of the Heat’s lack of height and shot blocking. They need to avoid a lot of dribbling and interior passing as that opens the door for turnovers. Play it safe and lob it up to a big man. From the low post the Cavs bigs should back their man down for the jump hook. Even Love should be able to get that shot off.
The Cavs were 10-for-19 from deep against Dallas so it the 3-pointer is open they should take it and have their bigs crash the offensive glass.
Defensively the key is to keep Bam and Butler out of the paint if possible and contest their drives without fouling. At the same time they need to get defensive rebounds and prevent Herro and Robinson from getting hot from deep.
The Cavs are now second in the NBA in scoring defense. They need to be smart when the Heat starts rotating the ball around the perimeter. Stay in front of Herro and Robinson; let the rest of them shoot.
It’s time for the Cavs to break their losing streak in Miami like they did in Dallas on Monday. I don’t expect a 31-point lead in the 4th quarter, but it’s time to get a win in Miami. If they get a win with Bam and Butler on the floor I think the NBA will really take notice, especially after that smackdown of the Mavericks in Dallas.
The Cavs lost their last four games to the Mavericks by an average of 24.5 points per game before turning it around Monday night. They lost their last four games in Miami by an average of 18.5 ppg, so maybe they can turn that around, too.
The Heat have been very good so far, beating Milwaukee (by 42), Brooklyn, Charlotte, Memphis, Chicago, and Utah twice. Those are all winning teams. The Heat split with Washington in two close games.
The Heat are 6-2 at home; 7-6 on the road. They had a day off yesterday after playing at home on Monday, losing to Denver with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Markieff Morris out with injuries.
Injuries are definitely the wild card in this game. Osman and Wade have been ruled out for the Cavs. Markieff Morris is out for the Heat while Butler, Adebayo, and Dedmon are questionable. The Heat might be sending a skeleton crew out there.
Adebayo has a sprained right thumb and will be a game-time decision. He’s right-handed so even if he plays it may affect his shooting. He had 24 points Monday so he must have hurt it in practice yesterday.
Butler (tailbone) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports. Butler missed Monday's matchup with the Nuggets due to the bruised tailbone, and his availability for Wednesday remains in question. Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Dewayne Dedmon (knee) are also questionable, though Tyler Herro (fatigue) is expected to play. - Rotowire
When healthy the Heat are about average offensively, ranking 13th in points per game and 21st in points in the paint. They’re average in 3-point rate and 3-point percentage. They’re very good at making 2-point shots and getting fouled, ranking 4th in free throws per possession. They are very strong on the offensive glass, ranking 5th in offensive rebound percentage. They take it to the hole and usually make the shot, get fouled, or get the offensive rebound.
A big key will be whether they can successfully attack the rim against Cleveland’s bigs. Rim protection and defensive rebounding will be critical for the Cavs.
Where the Heat really shine is on defense where they rank 3rd in opponent’s points per game. The Cavaliers are up to 2nd, so this game will feature two of the three best defenses in the NBA. Points will be hard to come by on both sides.
The Heat are the league’s worst shot blocking team by far at 2.8%. Nobody on their team averages even one-half a block per game. Surprisingly, the Cavs are the second worst at 4.3%. The Cavs will be able to get their shots up. However, the Heat are 2nd at preventing points in the paint despite the lack of shot blocking which is odd. Maybe they get a lot of strips in the paint. They are 8th in forcing turnovers so that’s probably the reason.
Opponents shoot more 3’s against the Heat than against any other team (41 per game). They obviously respect the Heat’s ability to defend the paint. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs attack the league’s second best interior defense. The Heat only rank 25th in opponents’ 2-point percentage so I don’t understand why teams don't shoot more 2's against them.
The Heat must be one of the smallest teams in the league. Their starting lineup is 6’9”, 6’7”, 6’5”, 6’5”, and 6’0”. That explains why they block so few shots, but they use their quickness and athleticism to force turnovers, ranking 8th in that category. The Cavs are second worst in the league at turnovers per possession, so a big key offensively will be to protect the ball and not give up a lot of transition points off turnovers. I'm looking at you, Darius.
The Cavs need to use their huge height advantage on the front line to pound it down low and take it to the hole or shoot jump hooks. The Heat will double the ball so the Cavs need to be ready to kick it out when the Heat floods the paint with defenders looking for the strip. Lobs to Allen and Mobley should be very effective against guys 6’7” and below.
The Heat have one seven-footer in 32-year-old Dewayne Dedmon, who averages 14 minutes per game. He is questionable with a bruised knee. If he is out tonight along with Adebayo then they will be playing this game without a center other than undrafted rookie Omer Yurtseven, 7'0", 264, averaging 3 minutes per game. However, the one game where Yurtseven got 23 minutes he had 14 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals. But he also committed five fouls. He's a member of the Turkish national team so Cedi will have a good scouting report on him.
If Adebayo and Dedmon are out their tallest player other than Yurtseven is 6’8” Udonis Haslem, who is 41 years old.
On defense the Cavs need to use their size advantage to force the Heat to fire from long range. Just don’t let Robinson or Herro get going. When they attack the rim it’s important not to get in foul trouble as the Heat excel at drawing shooting fouls. Jimmy Butler is averaging 8.6 free throws per game and you know the refs will give him all the calls against the Cavs.
Butler at age 32 is having another great year at 23.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 51.9% from the field but only 20.0% on 3’s, so the Cavs should stay in front of him and try to keep him out of the lane. Force him to shoot over you as much as possible. The outcome of this game could come down to whether this man plays or not. The Heat are 2-2 when he sits and 11-6 when he plays.
Tyler Herro is averaging 21.8 ppg on 45.4% and 39.8%. He scares me with his 3-point shooting as he can get very hot. He doesn’t usually start but is third in minutes per game.
Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds on 51.9%. He does not shoot 3’s but at 6’9” and super athletic he’s a load to defend. It will be interesting to see if they put Okoro on him or one of the bigs. He’s their starting center so if he’s out it will be huge. He had 24 points and 13 boards Monday.
P.J. Tucker, age 36, 6’5”, 245 pounds, has started every game and only attempts 5.2 field goals per game, averaging 6.9 points. He’s in for his defense and screen setting. He’s their version of Isaac Okoro, only stronger and much more experienced.
Duncan Robinson is averaging only 10.8 points on 36% from the field and 32.8% from deep. He’s a career 41.0% shooter on 3’s who is well below that this year. Must be the new ball. He always seems to shoot really well against the Cavs, however.
Kyle Lowry at age 35 is still starting at point guard and playing 34 minutes a game, tied for most with Butler. His scoring average has dropped from 19.4 to 12.5 in the last two seasons. He’s primarily a passer now with 7.7 assists per game - second highest of his career. He’s hitting 31% on 3’s so he’s another guy the Cavs need to slough off on and keep out of the paint even if it means letting him shoot from outside.
I wonder if the Heat will be able to get away with starting three guys aged 36, 35,and 32 the entire season and be fresh for the playoffs. Lowry and Butler are each averaging 34 minutes.
This should be an interesting matchup between an older, smaller, but very skilled team who is very tough at home against a younger and much bigger squad. One matchup to watch will be Kyle Lowry against Darius Garland at point guard (14 year age difference). If Garland can beat old man Lowry off the dribble and get into the paint both the lob and the floater will be available against their small front line. Maybe the layup, too, as these guys have no shot blockers.
On offense the Cavs should pound it inside and take advantage of the Heat’s lack of height and shot blocking. They need to avoid a lot of dribbling and interior passing as that opens the door for turnovers. Play it safe and lob it up to a big man. From the low post the Cavs bigs should back their man down for the jump hook. Even Love should be able to get that shot off.
The Cavs were 10-for-19 from deep against Dallas so it the 3-pointer is open they should take it and have their bigs crash the offensive glass.
Defensively the key is to keep Bam and Butler out of the paint if possible and contest their drives without fouling. At the same time they need to get defensive rebounds and prevent Herro and Robinson from getting hot from deep.
The Cavs are now second in the NBA in scoring defense. They need to be smart when the Heat starts rotating the ball around the perimeter. Stay in front of Herro and Robinson; let the rest of them shoot.
It’s time for the Cavs to break their losing streak in Miami like they did in Dallas on Monday. I don’t expect a 31-point lead in the 4th quarter, but it’s time to get a win in Miami. If they get a win with Bam and Butler on the floor I think the NBA will really take notice, especially after that smackdown of the Mavericks in Dallas.
