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The Cavaliers, winners of five in a row and seven of nine with the only losses coming to Memphis and Golden State, conclude a one-game home stand and are back on the road to take on the first place Bulls. The Bulls are 27-15 and very tough at home with a 15-6 record. However, they have lost their last four games due to tough opponents (Brooklyn, Golden State, Boston (away), and Memphis) and PG Lonzo Ball missing the last two games.
Zach LaVine injured his knee Monday and will be out as the Cavaliers' amazing run of injury luck continues. On Monday the Cavs beat Brooklyn in a close one after Kevin Durant injured his knee in the previous game.
This will be the second of four games between these teams. In the first game on Dec. 8 the Cavs won 115-92 in Cleveland with DeMar DeRozan out. All five Cavs starters were between +16 and +28 and the Cavs were 13-for-28 from deep in one of their best games of the year.
The Bulls will be missing three starters from that 23-point loss to the Cavs; LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Derrick Jones, Jr. Those three combined for 53 points, 10 rebounds, and 16 assists that night. However, they will get DeRozan and Coby White back. The Cavs will have the same team except Goodwin replaces Rubio.
The Bulls are 8th in scoring and shoot even better at home, averaging 113.0 ppg. They’re kind of an odd team offensively. They are second-to-last in 3-point attempts but lead the league in 3-point accuracy. It’s like they won’t shoot a 3 unless they’re wide open. They’re 19th in points on 3’s and 24th in points in the paint which leads me to believe they score more from mid-range than anybody. Which is exactly what DeRozan excels at.
Zach LaVine has a line of 24.9/5.0/4.8 on 48.6% from the field and 41.2% on 3’s, so they will be missing an All-Star caliber offensive player, in addition to their starting point guard, Lonzo Ball, who is out with knee soreness.
Ball is averaging 13.0 pts, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists and is shooting 42.3% on 3’s so his loss is significant. Backup SG Alex Caruso is a game time decision. Javonte Green and Derrick Jones, Jr, who have combined for 26 starts at small forward, are out. So the Bulls are down two stars in LaVine and Ball, their normal starter at SF (Green), his backup (Jones), and possibly Caruso, who averages 28 minutes per game as their 6th man. This is a pretty depleted team and I can see why they have lost four in a row, including a 2-point loss to the 23-22 Celtics four days ago.
The backup point guard is Coby White, who averages 12.5 ppg on 46.2% and 39.5%. Backup SG Ayo Dosunmu replaced LaVine early against Memphis and had 21 points and 10 rebounds. I would not count the Bulls out just because White and Dosunmu are replacing Ball and LaVine, especially at home. With Green and Jones out former Cav Alfonzo McKinnie started Monday but only had 2 points.
If the starting lineup is the same as Monday it will be Vucevic at center, White at point guard, DeRo at shooting guard, and McKinnie and Dosunmu at the forwards.
Defensively the Bulls are average, ranking 17th in points per game. They are 23rd in points allowed in the paint, so the Cavs should have success inside, particularly since the Bulls don’t have any height outside of center. Vucevic is 6’10” and so is his backup Tony Bradley, but the other Bulls are all in the 6’4” to 6’7” range; DeRo, White, Caruso, Dosunmu, Brown, McKinnie. As usual the Cavs will have a big height advantage at the two forward positions.
The Bulls are 25th in defending 3’s so the Cavs could do well offensively both beyond the arc and in the paint.
The Bulls have played the 20th or 22nd hardest schedule (depending on the source) and have the 6th most difficult schedule remaining. If LaVine is going to be out for a while they could find themselves slipping in the standings. The top six teams in the EC are all within 2.5 games of each other.
According to cleaningtheglass.com, the Bulls have 3.1 more wins than their point differential would justify. They rank 11th in point differential at +2.2 which should result in 23.9 wins. The Bulls have 27 wins so they have exceeded that figure by 3.1 wins. IOW, they have more wins than their level of play justifies, more than any team in the NBA. According to cleaningtheglass.com they should be a 24-18 team. It appears the Bulls have been winning a lot of close games. This suggests they are not quite as good as their record.
The Cavs, OTOH, rank 24th with a win differential of -2.0. Their record should be 29-16 rather than 27-18 based on their point differential of +4.6 points per game. This suggests the Cavs have been playing better than their record suggests but have had problems winning the close ones. The Cavs are 8-5 in games decided by five points or less.
I think the main reason the Cavs’ point differential is better than most teams is because they never get blown out. Their losses are hotly contested. Their biggest loss was by 17 points and only 7 of their 18 losses have been by double figures. But they have had some big wins; 45 points over Toronto’s G-League team, 35 over Houston, 29 over a depleted Milwaukee team, 22 over Chicago, and 26 over a depleted Miami team.
So I’m not totally buying into the idea that the Cavs are better than their record and the Bulls worse. I think teams that play great defense every night never lose by a lot and that helps their point differential.
Zach LaVine injured his knee Monday and will be out as the Cavaliers' amazing run of injury luck continues. On Monday the Cavs beat Brooklyn in a close one after Kevin Durant injured his knee in the previous game.
This will be the second of four games between these teams. In the first game on Dec. 8 the Cavs won 115-92 in Cleveland with DeMar DeRozan out. All five Cavs starters were between +16 and +28 and the Cavs were 13-for-28 from deep in one of their best games of the year.
The Bulls will be missing three starters from that 23-point loss to the Cavs; LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Derrick Jones, Jr. Those three combined for 53 points, 10 rebounds, and 16 assists that night. However, they will get DeRozan and Coby White back. The Cavs will have the same team except Goodwin replaces Rubio.
The Bulls are 8th in scoring and shoot even better at home, averaging 113.0 ppg. They’re kind of an odd team offensively. They are second-to-last in 3-point attempts but lead the league in 3-point accuracy. It’s like they won’t shoot a 3 unless they’re wide open. They’re 19th in points on 3’s and 24th in points in the paint which leads me to believe they score more from mid-range than anybody. Which is exactly what DeRozan excels at.
Zach LaVine has a line of 24.9/5.0/4.8 on 48.6% from the field and 41.2% on 3’s, so they will be missing an All-Star caliber offensive player, in addition to their starting point guard, Lonzo Ball, who is out with knee soreness.
Ball is averaging 13.0 pts, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists and is shooting 42.3% on 3’s so his loss is significant. Backup SG Alex Caruso is a game time decision. Javonte Green and Derrick Jones, Jr, who have combined for 26 starts at small forward, are out. So the Bulls are down two stars in LaVine and Ball, their normal starter at SF (Green), his backup (Jones), and possibly Caruso, who averages 28 minutes per game as their 6th man. This is a pretty depleted team and I can see why they have lost four in a row, including a 2-point loss to the 23-22 Celtics four days ago.
The backup point guard is Coby White, who averages 12.5 ppg on 46.2% and 39.5%. Backup SG Ayo Dosunmu replaced LaVine early against Memphis and had 21 points and 10 rebounds. I would not count the Bulls out just because White and Dosunmu are replacing Ball and LaVine, especially at home. With Green and Jones out former Cav Alfonzo McKinnie started Monday but only had 2 points.
If the starting lineup is the same as Monday it will be Vucevic at center, White at point guard, DeRo at shooting guard, and McKinnie and Dosunmu at the forwards.
Defensively the Bulls are average, ranking 17th in points per game. They are 23rd in points allowed in the paint, so the Cavs should have success inside, particularly since the Bulls don’t have any height outside of center. Vucevic is 6’10” and so is his backup Tony Bradley, but the other Bulls are all in the 6’4” to 6’7” range; DeRo, White, Caruso, Dosunmu, Brown, McKinnie. As usual the Cavs will have a big height advantage at the two forward positions.
The Bulls are 25th in defending 3’s so the Cavs could do well offensively both beyond the arc and in the paint.
The Bulls have played the 20th or 22nd hardest schedule (depending on the source) and have the 6th most difficult schedule remaining. If LaVine is going to be out for a while they could find themselves slipping in the standings. The top six teams in the EC are all within 2.5 games of each other.
According to cleaningtheglass.com, the Bulls have 3.1 more wins than their point differential would justify. They rank 11th in point differential at +2.2 which should result in 23.9 wins. The Bulls have 27 wins so they have exceeded that figure by 3.1 wins. IOW, they have more wins than their level of play justifies, more than any team in the NBA. According to cleaningtheglass.com they should be a 24-18 team. It appears the Bulls have been winning a lot of close games. This suggests they are not quite as good as their record.
The Cavs, OTOH, rank 24th with a win differential of -2.0. Their record should be 29-16 rather than 27-18 based on their point differential of +4.6 points per game. This suggests the Cavs have been playing better than their record suggests but have had problems winning the close ones. The Cavs are 8-5 in games decided by five points or less.
I think the main reason the Cavs’ point differential is better than most teams is because they never get blown out. Their losses are hotly contested. Their biggest loss was by 17 points and only 7 of their 18 losses have been by double figures. But they have had some big wins; 45 points over Toronto’s G-League team, 35 over Houston, 29 over a depleted Milwaukee team, 22 over Chicago, and 26 over a depleted Miami team.
So I’m not totally buying into the idea that the Cavs are better than their record and the Bulls worse. I think teams that play great defense every night never lose by a lot and that helps their point differential.
