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After losing to the Heat the Cavs catch a late flight to Chicago for a back-to-back against the 40-26 Bulls. Last night’s game was an 8 p.m. start so the Cavs probably got in to Chicago about 3 a.m. The Bulls have had two days off so this looks like a schedule loss even if the Bulls weren’t the better team. They are 24-10 at home.
However, it’s not clear the Bulls are the better team at the moment. They lost five straight games before beating Detroit three nights ago. But it should be pointed out that four of those losses were against good teams; Philly, Milwaukee, Memphis, and Miami.
The Bulls played Atlanta twice the last seven games, winning by four points and losing by six. So I’m thinking they’re about equal to Atlanta, which is 34-32. The Bulls' problem is they’re missing Lonzo Ball who has been out for two months. Since Ball went down the Bulls are 13-13 after starting 27-13. So right now everything points to them being a .500 team, although much better at home.
Compounding the problem is Zach LaVine is questionable for tonight. LaVine is averaging 24.6 ppg on 48.2% so if he can’t go that puts a big hole in their offense.
The Bulls have a very good offense, ranking 9th at 112.5 points per game. But if both Ball and Lavine are out they are probably not a 112-point team.
The Bulls are last in the NBA in 3-point rate and 28th in percentage of points from 3’s. Despite shooting fewer 3’s than any team they rank 2nd in 3-point percentage. I guess they don’t shoot a 3 unless they’re wide open.
They are below average in points in the paint (18th) so that means they score a lot on mid-range shots (paging Mr. DeRozan) and free throws (10th in free throws per play). They’re 4th in effective field goal percentage. The reason they’re only 9th in scoring is they don’t get offensive rebounds (28th).
The Bulls are 18th in scoring defense, 24th in points in the paint allowed, and 21st in effective field goal percentage. You can make shots on them. They’re 22nd in steals and 23rd in block percentage. The main reason they don’t rank worse than 18th in scoring is they are excellent defensive rebounders, ranking 5th. You rarely get a second shot.
Other than Vucevic at 6’10”, their entire team is 6’4” to 6’6”, at least the guys available tonight. Vucevic has a Kevin Love vertical so they don’t have shot blockers. The Cavs should get the ball to Mobley and Markkanen in the low post or drive to the rim. The Bulls rank 28th in opponents’ 3-point percentage so they apparently give up lots of open 3’s. The offense should try to get to the rim every time and if not, kick it out for an open 3.
On January 19 in Chicago the Bulls spanked the Cavs 117-104 without LaVine. DeRo had 30, Vucevic 24, Dosunmu 18 (he averages 8.4), and White 16. Other than 13 points from Love the Cavs only got 11 from their bench. The Cavs had their normal starting lineup.
Tonight looks to be a similar situation except the Cavs will not have Allen and they’re be playing the second night of a back-to-back with travel while the Bulls had two days off. The Cavs only got 27 from their bench last night in 80 minutes before garbage time. They need more from Love, Cedi, Stevens, and Rondo.
My plan would be to guard DeRo one-on-one with Okoro and Stevens and let him get his 35 points while shutting down everybody else. However, DeRo has been playing more minutes lately with Ball out. In his last six games he’s averaged 39 minutes and is shooting only 40.9% from the field. At 32 he may be feeling the effects of averaging 36 minutes for 62 games. Keeping switching fresh bodies on him and make him work hard to get to his spots.
On offense the Cavs should exploit the Bulls’ lack of shot blockers and get the ball to the low post with Mobley, Markkanen, and Love. With nobody over 6’6” except the vertically challenged Vucevic, the Cavs should be able to get high percentage shots and draw fouls at the rim.
I can see the Cavs making a game of it similar to last night but with Allen out plus the late night travel it’s tough to see them getting a win even if LaVine can’t go. This will probably be another 117-104 game like four weeks ago in the same venue.
However, it’s not clear the Bulls are the better team at the moment. They lost five straight games before beating Detroit three nights ago. But it should be pointed out that four of those losses were against good teams; Philly, Milwaukee, Memphis, and Miami.
The Bulls played Atlanta twice the last seven games, winning by four points and losing by six. So I’m thinking they’re about equal to Atlanta, which is 34-32. The Bulls' problem is they’re missing Lonzo Ball who has been out for two months. Since Ball went down the Bulls are 13-13 after starting 27-13. So right now everything points to them being a .500 team, although much better at home.
Compounding the problem is Zach LaVine is questionable for tonight. LaVine is averaging 24.6 ppg on 48.2% so if he can’t go that puts a big hole in their offense.
The Bulls have a very good offense, ranking 9th at 112.5 points per game. But if both Ball and Lavine are out they are probably not a 112-point team.
The Bulls are last in the NBA in 3-point rate and 28th in percentage of points from 3’s. Despite shooting fewer 3’s than any team they rank 2nd in 3-point percentage. I guess they don’t shoot a 3 unless they’re wide open.
They are below average in points in the paint (18th) so that means they score a lot on mid-range shots (paging Mr. DeRozan) and free throws (10th in free throws per play). They’re 4th in effective field goal percentage. The reason they’re only 9th in scoring is they don’t get offensive rebounds (28th).
The Bulls are 18th in scoring defense, 24th in points in the paint allowed, and 21st in effective field goal percentage. You can make shots on them. They’re 22nd in steals and 23rd in block percentage. The main reason they don’t rank worse than 18th in scoring is they are excellent defensive rebounders, ranking 5th. You rarely get a second shot.
Other than Vucevic at 6’10”, their entire team is 6’4” to 6’6”, at least the guys available tonight. Vucevic has a Kevin Love vertical so they don’t have shot blockers. The Cavs should get the ball to Mobley and Markkanen in the low post or drive to the rim. The Bulls rank 28th in opponents’ 3-point percentage so they apparently give up lots of open 3’s. The offense should try to get to the rim every time and if not, kick it out for an open 3.
On January 19 in Chicago the Bulls spanked the Cavs 117-104 without LaVine. DeRo had 30, Vucevic 24, Dosunmu 18 (he averages 8.4), and White 16. Other than 13 points from Love the Cavs only got 11 from their bench. The Cavs had their normal starting lineup.
Tonight looks to be a similar situation except the Cavs will not have Allen and they’re be playing the second night of a back-to-back with travel while the Bulls had two days off. The Cavs only got 27 from their bench last night in 80 minutes before garbage time. They need more from Love, Cedi, Stevens, and Rondo.
My plan would be to guard DeRo one-on-one with Okoro and Stevens and let him get his 35 points while shutting down everybody else. However, DeRo has been playing more minutes lately with Ball out. In his last six games he’s averaged 39 minutes and is shooting only 40.9% from the field. At 32 he may be feeling the effects of averaging 36 minutes for 62 games. Keeping switching fresh bodies on him and make him work hard to get to his spots.
On offense the Cavs should exploit the Bulls’ lack of shot blockers and get the ball to the low post with Mobley, Markkanen, and Love. With nobody over 6’6” except the vertically challenged Vucevic, the Cavs should be able to get high percentage shots and draw fouls at the rim.
I can see the Cavs making a game of it similar to last night but with Allen out plus the late night travel it’s tough to see them getting a win even if LaVine can’t go. This will probably be another 117-104 game like four weeks ago in the same venue.
