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The Cavs conclude their so far successful home stand with a rematch against the Lakers, who beat the Cavs 113-103 way back in October when the Cavs still had Rubio and Sexton and the Lakers had Anthony Davis.
The Lakers have fallen on hard times. They’re in 9th place and will need to survive the play-in to get to the playoffs. Best case scenario is they get the 1st place Suns in round 1 and will be quickly eliminated. The Lakers are 30-41 overall and 10-24 on the road. The Cavs are 23-12 at home. The Cavs have won 3 of 4. The Lakers have lost 13 of 17.
The Lakers will be playing their 3rd game in four nights and their 6th game in 9 days. This will be their fourth game of the road trip. They have got to be dog tired, especially since they have so many players over 30. They are allowing 124.1 points per game over their last 10 games. Defense is not their thing, especially with Anthony Davis out.
They could have injury issues, besides not having Anthony Davis and Kendrick Nunn. LeBron, Horton-Tucker, and Wayne Ellington are game time decisions. Obviously LeBron is the big name on that list but I assume he’ll play.
They lost to Washington Saturday 127-119. The Wizards average 108.5 points per game.
LeBron is carrying this team on his back. He’s averaging 38.5 minutes per game in March, a killer work load for a 37-year-old. He’s averaging 33.5 points in March. He’s actually picking up the pace down the stretch. He’s also averaging 8.2 rebounds and 6. 2 assists. He’s averaging more minutes than he has in five years. I don’t think 9th place and 38 minutes a game is what he had in mind.
LeBron moved into second place on the all-time scoring list Friday night. He’ll pass Kareem next year, hopefully with the Cavaliers. I can’t see him coming back for another year of killing himself for a play-in spot, not when he's hoping to extend his career so he can play with his son.
The Lakers starting lineup consists of LeBron, Russell Westbrook, and three guys. Westbrook is averaging 18.0 ppg at age 33 on 43.6% from the field and only 29.1% from deep. He appears to have lost a step.
Malik Monk is their 6’3” shooting guard. He’s a good shooter, hitting 46.6% and 39.5% on 3’s but he takes few shots, averaging only 12.9 ppg. Their “power forward” is Stanley Johnson, 6’6”’, 242 pounds. Johnson is in his 7th year and has a career average of 6.2 ppg. Their other shooting guard is Austin Reaves, a 6’5” undrafted rookie averaging 6.8 ppg.
So their starters on Saturday were 6’3”, 6’3”, 6’5”, 6’6”, and 6’8”. Three guards, LeBron, and a 6’6” power forward. No wonder the Wizards got 127 points. The Lakers are going to have trouble with the Cavs’ size. They have Dwight Howard on the bench, but he only averages 16 minutes and 4 points per game.
The Lakers rank only 19th in 3-point percentage as a team but they have some solid 3-point shooters. Monk is hitting 39.5%, Avery Bradley 38.5%, Carmelo Anthony 38.8% and Wayne Ellington 39.3%. Ellington is a game time decision. The Lakers hoist 3’s at a league average rate - they should probably shoot more with those percentages. Other than Monk their best 3-point shooters come off the bench.
The Lakers are a little above average in scoring but awful defensively, ranking 27th in opponents’ points per game. They’re also 27th in points allowed in the paint. They rank 6th in shot block percentage, but Anthony Davis gets 40% of their blocks, so when he’s out they’re probably below average at that, too.
The Lakers are not that bad at forcing misses, ranking 19th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, but they’re 25th in defensive rebounding percentage so they give up a lot of second shots which probably accounts for the low ranking in points allowed.
Why the Cavaliers will win:
They’re the better team, they’re 23-12 at home while the Lakers are 10-24 on the road, they’re playing well while the Lakers have lost 13 of 17, and the Lakers are playing their fourth road game in a row and their 6th game in 9 days. A number of their key players are over 30 including LeBron, Westbrook, Carmelo, Howard, Bradley, and Ellington. They have a small team with no true center outside of 36-year-old Dwight Howard who plays only one-third of the game. Only three teams are worse defensively.
Why the Lakers will win:
LeBron is still capable of taking over a game when he wants to, and this is the kind of game he will want to. Ten days ago he scored 50 points. Six days before that he scored 56 against Golden State - the team that leads the NBA in scoring defense. Without Jarrett Allen the Cavs have nobody with the strength and quickness to keep him from getting to wherever he wants to shoot from.
The Lakers have a group of sharpshooters who can come off the bench and nail 3’s. Carmelo scored 24 in October against the Cavs on 6-for-8 from deep. He along with Bradley, Monk, and Ellington are all in the 40% area on 3’s. If they get hot while LeBron is going off for 50 the Lakers could easily pull out the win.
This might be a team the Cavs simply have to outscore. The Lakers are a bad defensive team and without AD they’re worse. They’ve been hemorrhaging points lately. With only one starter over 6’6” the Cavs need to pound it inside and get a lot of second chance points against one of league’s worst defensive rebounding teams.
My defensive plan would be to let LeBron get his but don’t let the 3-point shooters get going. LeBron is such a great passer that doubling him will only result in somebody taking an uncontested 3. That didn't work against Embiid and it won't work against LeBron. And they have guys who can knock them down.
I would try to make LeBron work on defense. Whoever he's guarding should keep moving and not let him rest. Then when he gets the ball on the perimeter try to get two bodies in front of him and make him take a 3 or give up the ball.
They could also have LeBron's man camp out in the corner which means either Mobley or Markkanen or Love will be able to post up a 6'6" guy (unless Howard is in the game, which he usually isn't).
I liked the way Cedi was looking for every opportunity to attack the rim last game. He and Lauri were both pretty much spot up 3-point shooters early in the season but they are both attacking the rim a lot more recently - at least that's my impression. That's great because it gives their game more versatility.
The Lakers have fallen on hard times. They’re in 9th place and will need to survive the play-in to get to the playoffs. Best case scenario is they get the 1st place Suns in round 1 and will be quickly eliminated. The Lakers are 30-41 overall and 10-24 on the road. The Cavs are 23-12 at home. The Cavs have won 3 of 4. The Lakers have lost 13 of 17.
The Lakers will be playing their 3rd game in four nights and their 6th game in 9 days. This will be their fourth game of the road trip. They have got to be dog tired, especially since they have so many players over 30. They are allowing 124.1 points per game over their last 10 games. Defense is not their thing, especially with Anthony Davis out.
They could have injury issues, besides not having Anthony Davis and Kendrick Nunn. LeBron, Horton-Tucker, and Wayne Ellington are game time decisions. Obviously LeBron is the big name on that list but I assume he’ll play.
They lost to Washington Saturday 127-119. The Wizards average 108.5 points per game.
LeBron is carrying this team on his back. He’s averaging 38.5 minutes per game in March, a killer work load for a 37-year-old. He’s averaging 33.5 points in March. He’s actually picking up the pace down the stretch. He’s also averaging 8.2 rebounds and 6. 2 assists. He’s averaging more minutes than he has in five years. I don’t think 9th place and 38 minutes a game is what he had in mind.
LeBron moved into second place on the all-time scoring list Friday night. He’ll pass Kareem next year, hopefully with the Cavaliers. I can’t see him coming back for another year of killing himself for a play-in spot, not when he's hoping to extend his career so he can play with his son.
The Lakers starting lineup consists of LeBron, Russell Westbrook, and three guys. Westbrook is averaging 18.0 ppg at age 33 on 43.6% from the field and only 29.1% from deep. He appears to have lost a step.
Malik Monk is their 6’3” shooting guard. He’s a good shooter, hitting 46.6% and 39.5% on 3’s but he takes few shots, averaging only 12.9 ppg. Their “power forward” is Stanley Johnson, 6’6”’, 242 pounds. Johnson is in his 7th year and has a career average of 6.2 ppg. Their other shooting guard is Austin Reaves, a 6’5” undrafted rookie averaging 6.8 ppg.
So their starters on Saturday were 6’3”, 6’3”, 6’5”, 6’6”, and 6’8”. Three guards, LeBron, and a 6’6” power forward. No wonder the Wizards got 127 points. The Lakers are going to have trouble with the Cavs’ size. They have Dwight Howard on the bench, but he only averages 16 minutes and 4 points per game.
The Lakers rank only 19th in 3-point percentage as a team but they have some solid 3-point shooters. Monk is hitting 39.5%, Avery Bradley 38.5%, Carmelo Anthony 38.8% and Wayne Ellington 39.3%. Ellington is a game time decision. The Lakers hoist 3’s at a league average rate - they should probably shoot more with those percentages. Other than Monk their best 3-point shooters come off the bench.
The Lakers are a little above average in scoring but awful defensively, ranking 27th in opponents’ points per game. They’re also 27th in points allowed in the paint. They rank 6th in shot block percentage, but Anthony Davis gets 40% of their blocks, so when he’s out they’re probably below average at that, too.
The Lakers are not that bad at forcing misses, ranking 19th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, but they’re 25th in defensive rebounding percentage so they give up a lot of second shots which probably accounts for the low ranking in points allowed.
Why the Cavaliers will win:
They’re the better team, they’re 23-12 at home while the Lakers are 10-24 on the road, they’re playing well while the Lakers have lost 13 of 17, and the Lakers are playing their fourth road game in a row and their 6th game in 9 days. A number of their key players are over 30 including LeBron, Westbrook, Carmelo, Howard, Bradley, and Ellington. They have a small team with no true center outside of 36-year-old Dwight Howard who plays only one-third of the game. Only three teams are worse defensively.
Why the Lakers will win:
LeBron is still capable of taking over a game when he wants to, and this is the kind of game he will want to. Ten days ago he scored 50 points. Six days before that he scored 56 against Golden State - the team that leads the NBA in scoring defense. Without Jarrett Allen the Cavs have nobody with the strength and quickness to keep him from getting to wherever he wants to shoot from.
The Lakers have a group of sharpshooters who can come off the bench and nail 3’s. Carmelo scored 24 in October against the Cavs on 6-for-8 from deep. He along with Bradley, Monk, and Ellington are all in the 40% area on 3’s. If they get hot while LeBron is going off for 50 the Lakers could easily pull out the win.
This might be a team the Cavs simply have to outscore. The Lakers are a bad defensive team and without AD they’re worse. They’ve been hemorrhaging points lately. With only one starter over 6’6” the Cavs need to pound it inside and get a lot of second chance points against one of league’s worst defensive rebounding teams.
My defensive plan would be to let LeBron get his but don’t let the 3-point shooters get going. LeBron is such a great passer that doubling him will only result in somebody taking an uncontested 3. That didn't work against Embiid and it won't work against LeBron. And they have guys who can knock them down.
I would try to make LeBron work on defense. Whoever he's guarding should keep moving and not let him rest. Then when he gets the ball on the perimeter try to get two bodies in front of him and make him take a 3 or give up the ball.
They could also have LeBron's man camp out in the corner which means either Mobley or Markkanen or Love will be able to post up a 6'6" guy (unless Howard is in the game, which he usually isn't).
I liked the way Cedi was looking for every opportunity to attack the rim last game. He and Lauri were both pretty much spot up 3-point shooters early in the season but they are both attacking the rim a lot more recently - at least that's my impression. That's great because it gives their game more versatility.
