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The 13-8 Cavs close out November by returning home to face the 12-9 Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers started 5-7 but have since gone 7-2 with wins over Milwaukee, Utah, Brooklyn, and Atlanta twice. They're playing some great ball lately.
Both teams are missing key elements. Allen and Love remain out for the Cavs while Stevens is questionable. Tyrese Maxey and James Harden are out for Philly. Between Maxey and Harden the Sixers are missing 45 points, 10 rebounds, and 14 assists per game. And this is a team that ranks 24th in scoring.
The Sixers still have a lot of talent even without Maxey and Harden. Two nights ago they beat 11-10 Atlanta by 3 points at home with the same lineup they will present tonight.
Joel Embiid leads the way, of course, with a line of 32/10/5 on 52% from the floor. He’s only hitting 26.5% from deep but he’ll probably make 50% tonight. With Allen out he should have a huge game. He’s averaging 36.3 ppg in November.
Last year Embiid scored 22, 35, 40, and 44 points against the Cavs. In the 22-point game he was 0-for-4 from deep; in the other three games he was 8-for-14. In the two games Jarrett Allen was out Embiid scored 35 and 40. Since the Sixers second and third leading scorers are out tonight Embiid will be taking even more shots. With Allen out I’m expecting 50 from Embiid unless the Cavs immediately double him as soon as he gets the ball.
PF Tobias Harris averages 17 points on 48% overall and 37% on 3's. De’Anthony Melton, a 6’2” shooting guard filling in for Harden, averages 11 points on 41% overall and 36% on 3’s.
The other starters will be P.J. Tucker, who is in for defense and rebounding (3.1 points per game), and Shake Milton, a 6’5” shooting guard who is really stepping up, averaging 17.2 points in his last 10 games on 56% and 47% shooting. He’s also chipping in 5 assists and 5 rebounds.
Matisse Thybulle, a former starter and defensive stopper (rich man’s Isaac Okoro) comes off the bench for defense, but he averages 11.4 points on 54% and 43%. Georges Niang, a 6’7” forward, is shooting 48% and 45% in 20 minutes a game. He's hitting 56% of his corner 3's so the Cavs can't leave him alone in the corner to double Joel.
In their last game Embiid, Harris, and Milton combined for 75 of the Sixers 105 points.
The Sixers are only 24th in scoring and 29th in points in the paint, despite having Embiid. They are mainly an outside shooting team, ranking 9th in percentage of points from 3’s. They rank 7th in 3-point accuracy at 37.5%. They have six players available tonight shooting over 36% on 3’s. Double Embiid in the post at your own peril.
You’d think they would rank a lot higher than 24th in scoring, but their scoring is limited by a couple of factors; they play very slow (28th in field goal attempts per game), and they get few offensive rebounds (25th). They take their time in the half-court offense, get the ball to Embiid, and he takes his time either getting to his spot or waiting for the double-team and kicking it out.
Both these teams play very deliberately, so this should be a low scoring, half-court affair. Harden also likes to do a lot of dribbling before either driving or shooting a step-back 3, but he’s out.
Embiid averages 12 of the team’s 23 free throw attempts per game. He’s hitting 84% from the line. Fouling him is not a good idea, especially being short-handed up front with Allen and Love out.
The Cavs’ best approach may be to just let Embiid get his points and make sure the rest of them don’t get rolling from deep. Better a 2-pointer than a 3. Alternate Mobley and Lopez on him and hope he gets tired in the 4th quarter and misses some shots down the stretch with the score close.
The Sixers lead the NBA in scoring defense and opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re 9th in points allowed in the paint. They like to gamble, ranking 2nd in steals per play. The Cavs will need to take care of the ball. Between the slow pace, lots of steals, and excellent defensive rebounding the Sixers allow the third fewest field goal attempts. You have to protect the ball and make your first shot.
The best strategy when the Cavs have the ball might be to attack the rim. Make Embiid work on defense - with the Sixers missing 45 points per game he’s going to want to save his energy for offense. The Sixers average less than five blocked shots per game and they're foul rate is a little higher than average. I would have Garland and Mitchell try to dribble penetrate and finish with a lob, layup, or floater. Careful about kicking it to the corner - the Sixers get a ton of steals.
The Sixers are not a tall bunch. Other than Embiid there is nobody in their rotation over 6’7”. Getting into the paint could be effective.
The Cavs need to hit a lot more 3’s than they have the last couple of games when they went 15-for-56, or 27%. I know that Philly is the best team in the NBA at defending the 3, but you can’t beat anybody at 27%. OK, they beat Detroit, who were missing four starters, while shooting 28% from deep, but they won't beat the Sixers chucking up bricks.
The Cavs are at home and had a day off. Philly is missing two key starters. Last year the Cavs were 0-4 against Philly, all in the second half of the season, losing by 4, 4, 6, and 10. These teams played four tough, close games last year but the Sixers always had the best player on the floor at the end and that was the difference. We’ll see if the Cavs can turn it around tonight.
Both teams are missing key elements. Allen and Love remain out for the Cavs while Stevens is questionable. Tyrese Maxey and James Harden are out for Philly. Between Maxey and Harden the Sixers are missing 45 points, 10 rebounds, and 14 assists per game. And this is a team that ranks 24th in scoring.
The Sixers still have a lot of talent even without Maxey and Harden. Two nights ago they beat 11-10 Atlanta by 3 points at home with the same lineup they will present tonight.
Joel Embiid leads the way, of course, with a line of 32/10/5 on 52% from the floor. He’s only hitting 26.5% from deep but he’ll probably make 50% tonight. With Allen out he should have a huge game. He’s averaging 36.3 ppg in November.
Last year Embiid scored 22, 35, 40, and 44 points against the Cavs. In the 22-point game he was 0-for-4 from deep; in the other three games he was 8-for-14. In the two games Jarrett Allen was out Embiid scored 35 and 40. Since the Sixers second and third leading scorers are out tonight Embiid will be taking even more shots. With Allen out I’m expecting 50 from Embiid unless the Cavs immediately double him as soon as he gets the ball.
PF Tobias Harris averages 17 points on 48% overall and 37% on 3's. De’Anthony Melton, a 6’2” shooting guard filling in for Harden, averages 11 points on 41% overall and 36% on 3’s.
The other starters will be P.J. Tucker, who is in for defense and rebounding (3.1 points per game), and Shake Milton, a 6’5” shooting guard who is really stepping up, averaging 17.2 points in his last 10 games on 56% and 47% shooting. He’s also chipping in 5 assists and 5 rebounds.
Matisse Thybulle, a former starter and defensive stopper (rich man’s Isaac Okoro) comes off the bench for defense, but he averages 11.4 points on 54% and 43%. Georges Niang, a 6’7” forward, is shooting 48% and 45% in 20 minutes a game. He's hitting 56% of his corner 3's so the Cavs can't leave him alone in the corner to double Joel.
In their last game Embiid, Harris, and Milton combined for 75 of the Sixers 105 points.
The Sixers are only 24th in scoring and 29th in points in the paint, despite having Embiid. They are mainly an outside shooting team, ranking 9th in percentage of points from 3’s. They rank 7th in 3-point accuracy at 37.5%. They have six players available tonight shooting over 36% on 3’s. Double Embiid in the post at your own peril.
You’d think they would rank a lot higher than 24th in scoring, but their scoring is limited by a couple of factors; they play very slow (28th in field goal attempts per game), and they get few offensive rebounds (25th). They take their time in the half-court offense, get the ball to Embiid, and he takes his time either getting to his spot or waiting for the double-team and kicking it out.
Both these teams play very deliberately, so this should be a low scoring, half-court affair. Harden also likes to do a lot of dribbling before either driving or shooting a step-back 3, but he’s out.
Embiid averages 12 of the team’s 23 free throw attempts per game. He’s hitting 84% from the line. Fouling him is not a good idea, especially being short-handed up front with Allen and Love out.
The Cavs’ best approach may be to just let Embiid get his points and make sure the rest of them don’t get rolling from deep. Better a 2-pointer than a 3. Alternate Mobley and Lopez on him and hope he gets tired in the 4th quarter and misses some shots down the stretch with the score close.
The Sixers lead the NBA in scoring defense and opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re 9th in points allowed in the paint. They like to gamble, ranking 2nd in steals per play. The Cavs will need to take care of the ball. Between the slow pace, lots of steals, and excellent defensive rebounding the Sixers allow the third fewest field goal attempts. You have to protect the ball and make your first shot.
The best strategy when the Cavs have the ball might be to attack the rim. Make Embiid work on defense - with the Sixers missing 45 points per game he’s going to want to save his energy for offense. The Sixers average less than five blocked shots per game and they're foul rate is a little higher than average. I would have Garland and Mitchell try to dribble penetrate and finish with a lob, layup, or floater. Careful about kicking it to the corner - the Sixers get a ton of steals.
The Sixers are not a tall bunch. Other than Embiid there is nobody in their rotation over 6’7”. Getting into the paint could be effective.
The Cavs need to hit a lot more 3’s than they have the last couple of games when they went 15-for-56, or 27%. I know that Philly is the best team in the NBA at defending the 3, but you can’t beat anybody at 27%. OK, they beat Detroit, who were missing four starters, while shooting 28% from deep, but they won't beat the Sixers chucking up bricks.
The Cavs are at home and had a day off. Philly is missing two key starters. Last year the Cavs were 0-4 against Philly, all in the second half of the season, losing by 4, 4, 6, and 10. These teams played four tough, close games last year but the Sixers always had the best player on the floor at the end and that was the difference. We’ll see if the Cavs can turn it around tonight.
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