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Game Thread | Game #36 | Cavs @ Pacers | Dec. 29, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The well-rested Cavs hit the road to take on the Indiana Pacers at 7 p.m. The Cavs are coming off a six-game home stand and have played just one game in the last five days. They have had two days off after getting schooled by the Nets.

The Pacers are 18-17 overall and 10-7 at home. They got off to a good start but are 6-9 in their last 15 games. They last played two nights ago, beating the Hawks at home 129-114.

These teams played in Cleveland on Dec. 16 with the Cavs winning 118-112. The Pacers scored 94 points in the first three quarters but the Cavs came back to dominate the 4th quarter 35-18 and pull out a win. Donovan Mitchell scored 41, Garland had 20 points and 10 assists, LeVert was a +17 off the bench, and the defense came through late.

The Cavs shot 45% on 3’s in that game and were 28-for-32 from the line. Indy scored 62 points in the paint (they average 46), and they outscored the Cavs on fast breaks 20-9. Overall they shot 52.5%. It was not the Cavs’ finest moment defensively.

The Cavs need to be better defensively tonight. They can’t count on Mitchell for 41 points every night. He was 8-for-15 from deep that game.

The Pacers are an average team overall but they’re tough to beat at home. They rank 10th in scoring at home (117 points per game). They get a lot of steals (rating 8th) and turn them into fast breaks (1st in fast break points per game).

They prefer to shoot from deep, ranking 4th in 3-point rate and 4th in percentage of points from 3’s. They’re all about forcing turnovers and scoring off the break and from deep. They rank 27th in percentage of points from 2-point shots, which is why it was odd to see them get so many points in the paint against the Cavs.

Offensively they commit a lot of turnovers (23rd) and don’t get to the foul line that much (21st). The key is to force turnovers and run them off the 3-point line or contest the shot.

In their last three games Cavs’ opponents are an astonishing 50-for-97 (51.5%) on 3’s. That needs to change.

Defensively they are below average, ranking 19th in scoring defense. They’re not bad at forcing missed shots (12th in eFG%), but they’re awful at defensive rebounding, ranking 29th. The Pacers are a small team and give up a lot of offensive boards and second chance points. However, in the first game the Cavs only got six offensive rebounds. They should do better.

The Pacers rank 2nd in block percentage. C Myles Turner averages two blocks per game. They have three starters between 6’3” and 6’5” so when Turner goes for the block and doesn’t get it there are opportunities for offensive rebounds, especially when 6’9” Jalen Smith is out. He averages 21 minutes.

The Pacers get a lot of steals and force a lot of turnovers (9th most) with their aggressive style, but it also results in a lot of fouls; they rank 26th in opponents’ free throw attempts per play. The Cavs made 28 free throws the first game. The key for the Cavs is to avoid turnovers while getting the Pacers in foul trouble and cashing in at the line again.

The Pacers rank 8th in assists and have five players averaging in double figures. They move the ball around and play unselfishly. PG Tyrese Haliburton leads the league in assists at 10.2 per game and chips in 20.5 points. Sharpshooter Buddy Hield averages 17.7 points on 42% from deep. Myles Turner averages 16 points and 8 rebounds and hits 40% on 3’s. In fact, he’s shooting 44% from deep in December so they can’t leave him along on pick-and-pops.

Aaron Nesmith (6’5”) and Andrew Nembhard (6’3”) average 9 and 8 points. Benedict Mathurin (6’5”), the 6th pick in this year’s draft, averages 17 points off the bench, but he is shooting 38% and 22% in December.

One potential wild card is that the Pacers’ best player, PG Tyrese Haliburton, is listed as a game time decision with knee soreness. If he can’t play it would be huge.

The Cavaliers are 6-9 on the road and this is an area where they need to improve. They are very well-rested and taking on an average team that hasn’t played that well recently, going 6-8 in December. This would be a nice win to start the road trip if they can pull it off. They need to protect the paint better than last time they played Indy, however.

They also need to defend the 3-point shot much better than they’ve done recently. The Pacers are 11th in 3-point percentage so the Cavs need to contest their 3’s while not allowing 62 points in the paint this time to a team that averages 46.
 
ESPN lists the Cavs as 5.5 point favorites. Do they know something we don't?
 
ESPN lists the Cavs as 5.5 point favorites. Do they know something we don't?
That seems about right. I expect Mitchell to get out of his shooting slump and Mobley and Allen to feast inside, as well as Garland to continue his sparkling play. I expect a high-scoring game with the Cavs having one good defensive quarter again. 121-116, Cavs. 60% chance of victory.
 
Indiana is 10-7 at home, while the Cavs are 6-9 on the road. The Pacers should be favored. I give the Cavs a 46.392% chance of winning tonight, no more, no less.
 
If Lopez and Ward are out and I. Mobley isn't on the bench, we won't have a lot of depth up front against the Pacers.

 
If Lopez and Ward are out and I. Mobley isn't on the bench, we won't have a lot of depth up front against the Pacers.


Love and Evan can both play center too. After Turner who is 6'11, the Pacers dont have a ton of size, their starting pf is 6'6, backup center 6'9. There only other guy over 6'9 is a 6'11 Goga who has played in 17 games and averages a bit less than 10 minutes a game.

This is one team we could even get away playing Lamar and Cedi a bit at pf if needed, especially Lamar. Obviously i wish Wade was healthy, but the biggest difference maker will be if Haliburton plays.
 
If Cedi is out we need Lamar and Okoro to step up. First game against Indy Cedi had 14 points in 21 minutes off the bench. Stevens and Okoro combined for 2 points and 3 rebounds in 32 minutes. They were a -11 and -5, respectively.

LeVert came off the bench to replace Stevens and was a +17 in 26 minutes. The lineup worked a lot better with LeVert than with Lamar or Isaac, maybe because Levert played for Indy last year and was motivated to show up the team that traded him for a guy with a blown ACL. The Pacers have a small lineup so we can get away with playing three guards at a time.
 
Our 3rd best spacer tonight is Caris. This is gonna be rough
 
Cavs Keys to the Game

A VISIT TO INDY

After wrapping up their six-game home stand with a pair of losses, the Wine & Gold look to recapture their mojo when they hit the road to close out the calendar year – traveling to Indy for a Thursday night showdown with the Pacers.
The Cavaliers dropped consecutive games for the first time since mid-November when they fell on Monday, two nights after falling to the Raptors. In Monday’s loss to Brooklyn, both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving netted 32 points and the Nets got big efforts from their second unit, staving off a massive 46-point outburst by Darius Garland. Cleveland trailed by 19 points early in the fourth quarter before getting to within four, but Durant and T.J. Warren iced the win from the stripe in the closing moments.
The Pacers (18-17) come into tonight’s contest – the second game of the four-game homestand – having won three of four, including a double-digit win over the Hawks on Tuesday. Indy shot 51 percent from the floor, held Trae Young to 5-for-15 shooting and got strong showings from Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield.
The Cavs have won five straight in the series – four of those by single-digits – including a 118-116 victory two weeks ago to tip off the recent six-game home stand. The Wine & Gold travel back to Indianapolis in early February before welcoming the Pacers back to Cleveland in the season’s penultimate home game in April.

More here:
 
3 of Indiana's starting lineup shoots 40%+ from three. The other two shoot 35%+ from three... lol

Ooooh boy.
 

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