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The Cavs return home after a 2-3 western road trip to take on the New Orleans Pelicans in an odd 3 p.m. start on MLK Day. These teams could not be more evenly matched. The Cavs are 27-17 while the Pelis are 26-17. Both teams have a point differential of +4.1. However, the Cavs are 18-4 at home and the Pelis are 9-12 on the road.
The injury situation favors the Cavs as Zion Williamson is out with a hammy. Zion leads the Pelis in scoring at 26 points per game on 61% from the field. However, the Pelis are 17-12 with Zion and 9-5 without him so their win percentage is better when he is not playing. Since his injury they are 3-3, with losses to Boston, Dallas, and Brooklyn and wins against Houston, Washington, and Detroit. IOW, they beat the losers and lost to the winners.
Brandon Ingram, with a line of 21/5/5, has been out since November 2 with a toe injury and has been ruled out for this game. Zion and Ingram combine for 47 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists per game so there’s no excuse for the Cavs losing at home.
They still have C.J. McCollum, who is averaging 21 points on 43.5% from the field and 40.3% from deep. Center Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 14.5 points and 9.7 rebounds. SG Trey Murphy III averages 12.6 points on 48% and 42%. SF Naji Marshall averages 10.4 points while former Cavalier Larry Nance Jr averages 7.8 points on 62% off the bench.
The Pelicans are a big team. Valanciunas is a hulk at 6’11”, 265. Murphy and Nance are 6’8”, Marshall and Herbert Jones are 6’7”, and Jaxson Hayes is 7’0”. McCollum is the runt at 6’3”. Jones is listed as questionable. He scored 26 points in a win over the Cavs last year - still his career high.
The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency even without Ingram for 28 games. They rank 3rd in frequency of shots at the rim and 4th in points in the paint. That may be down a bit with Zion out since he’s strictly an inside scorer.
The Pelicans don’t like the outside shot, ranking 27th in 3-point rate, so they are one of the most extreme teams in terms of attacking the rim and avoiding the 3-point shot. Allen and Mobley will be busy this afternoon defending the paint. Vala will obviously use his bulk to try and push Allen and Mobley around and power the ball to the rim. In their last game Isaiah Stewart was out for Detroit so they started Nerlens Noel (6'11", 155 pounds) at center and Vala had 33 points and 16 rebounds in a 6-point Pelicans win. Allen is going to take a beating inside - physically at least. With two of their top scorers out I expect the Pelicans to feed Vala.
The Pelicans get fouled a lot as they plough to the hole, ranking 3rd in free throw attempts. They're 8th in offensive rebounding. They are very physical on the offensive glass but with Zion out they won’t be as physical as usual, which is good for the Cavs since Allen and Mobley are not built to joust with monsters like Vala and Zion.
The Pelis rank 7th in 3-point shooting percentage despite ranking 27th in 3-point attempts. They only shoot them when they’re uncontested, apparently.
As a team the Pelis average 117 points per game. In the six games Zion has been out they’re still getting 117 while allowing 115.
Defensively the Pelis rank 6th in scoring efficiency. They excel at defending the 3-point shot, ranking 2nd in opponents’ 3-point percentage. All that length on the wing really helps when contesting 3’s.
But they rank 28th in 2-point percentage so I would recommend the Cavs take it to the hole. With Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert going up against guys who are 6’7” or 6’8” they should use their quickness advantage to beat them off the dribble. Vala is not a shot blocker (1 every 50 minutes) so the Cavs’ quickness should allow them to get to the paint for layups or lobs to the rim.
It could be an interesting cat-and-mouse game as the Pelican wings back off and invite the Cavs’ guards to shoot a 3 in hopes of stepping up and getting a block or forcing a miss. The Pelis only average 4.4 blocks per game so the Cavs should be able to get their shots off.
The Pelicans rank 3rd in steals per possession, which is understandable considering all that length. The Cavs need to be careful with their lobs and passes because these guys are long and quick.
The Pelicans rank 2nd in points scored after a missed shot, so defensive rebounding by the Cavs will be crucial. The Cavs must defend the paint and not allow uncontested 3’s. IOW, force them to shoot mid-range jumpers whenever possible; they rank 25th in mid-range accuracy. On offense the key is to avoid bad passes, only shoot 3’s when uncontested, and get consistent dribble penetration.
The Cavs also have to be aware of 36-year-old wing Garrett Temple, who is hitting 43% from deep off the bench. Just over a year ago he hit 5-of-6 against the Cavs in a 4-point Pelican win, including four 3's in the 4th quarter. He’s only played in 14 games this year but we could see him.
Bottom line this is a game between a team that is 18-4 at home against a team that is 9-12 on the road and will be missing two of their three star players who combine for 47 points a game. No excuse for the Cavs not to win this one, although the Pelicans are a very good team even without Ingram and Zion and they have had two days off, so it will be a very competitive game, in my opinion.
The injury situation favors the Cavs as Zion Williamson is out with a hammy. Zion leads the Pelis in scoring at 26 points per game on 61% from the field. However, the Pelis are 17-12 with Zion and 9-5 without him so their win percentage is better when he is not playing. Since his injury they are 3-3, with losses to Boston, Dallas, and Brooklyn and wins against Houston, Washington, and Detroit. IOW, they beat the losers and lost to the winners.
Brandon Ingram, with a line of 21/5/5, has been out since November 2 with a toe injury and has been ruled out for this game. Zion and Ingram combine for 47 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists per game so there’s no excuse for the Cavs losing at home.
They still have C.J. McCollum, who is averaging 21 points on 43.5% from the field and 40.3% from deep. Center Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 14.5 points and 9.7 rebounds. SG Trey Murphy III averages 12.6 points on 48% and 42%. SF Naji Marshall averages 10.4 points while former Cavalier Larry Nance Jr averages 7.8 points on 62% off the bench.
The Pelicans are a big team. Valanciunas is a hulk at 6’11”, 265. Murphy and Nance are 6’8”, Marshall and Herbert Jones are 6’7”, and Jaxson Hayes is 7’0”. McCollum is the runt at 6’3”. Jones is listed as questionable. He scored 26 points in a win over the Cavs last year - still his career high.
The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency even without Ingram for 28 games. They rank 3rd in frequency of shots at the rim and 4th in points in the paint. That may be down a bit with Zion out since he’s strictly an inside scorer.
The Pelicans don’t like the outside shot, ranking 27th in 3-point rate, so they are one of the most extreme teams in terms of attacking the rim and avoiding the 3-point shot. Allen and Mobley will be busy this afternoon defending the paint. Vala will obviously use his bulk to try and push Allen and Mobley around and power the ball to the rim. In their last game Isaiah Stewart was out for Detroit so they started Nerlens Noel (6'11", 155 pounds) at center and Vala had 33 points and 16 rebounds in a 6-point Pelicans win. Allen is going to take a beating inside - physically at least. With two of their top scorers out I expect the Pelicans to feed Vala.
The Pelicans get fouled a lot as they plough to the hole, ranking 3rd in free throw attempts. They're 8th in offensive rebounding. They are very physical on the offensive glass but with Zion out they won’t be as physical as usual, which is good for the Cavs since Allen and Mobley are not built to joust with monsters like Vala and Zion.
The Pelis rank 7th in 3-point shooting percentage despite ranking 27th in 3-point attempts. They only shoot them when they’re uncontested, apparently.
As a team the Pelis average 117 points per game. In the six games Zion has been out they’re still getting 117 while allowing 115.
Defensively the Pelis rank 6th in scoring efficiency. They excel at defending the 3-point shot, ranking 2nd in opponents’ 3-point percentage. All that length on the wing really helps when contesting 3’s.
But they rank 28th in 2-point percentage so I would recommend the Cavs take it to the hole. With Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert going up against guys who are 6’7” or 6’8” they should use their quickness advantage to beat them off the dribble. Vala is not a shot blocker (1 every 50 minutes) so the Cavs’ quickness should allow them to get to the paint for layups or lobs to the rim.
It could be an interesting cat-and-mouse game as the Pelican wings back off and invite the Cavs’ guards to shoot a 3 in hopes of stepping up and getting a block or forcing a miss. The Pelis only average 4.4 blocks per game so the Cavs should be able to get their shots off.
The Pelicans rank 3rd in steals per possession, which is understandable considering all that length. The Cavs need to be careful with their lobs and passes because these guys are long and quick.
The Pelicans rank 2nd in points scored after a missed shot, so defensive rebounding by the Cavs will be crucial. The Cavs must defend the paint and not allow uncontested 3’s. IOW, force them to shoot mid-range jumpers whenever possible; they rank 25th in mid-range accuracy. On offense the key is to avoid bad passes, only shoot 3’s when uncontested, and get consistent dribble penetration.
The Cavs also have to be aware of 36-year-old wing Garrett Temple, who is hitting 43% from deep off the bench. Just over a year ago he hit 5-of-6 against the Cavs in a 4-point Pelican win, including four 3's in the 4th quarter. He’s only played in 14 games this year but we could see him.
Bottom line this is a game between a team that is 18-4 at home against a team that is 9-12 on the road and will be missing two of their three star players who combine for 47 points a game. No excuse for the Cavs not to win this one, although the Pelicans are a very good team even without Ingram and Zion and they have had two days off, so it will be a very competitive game, in my opinion.
