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Game Thread | Game #46 | Cavs @ Grizzlies | Jan. 18, 2023

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After one home game the Cavs head south to Memphis to engage the 30-13 Grizzlies. On paper this game does not look promising. The Grizzlies are 19-3 at home and have won 10 games in a row. They have no significant injuries.

Zach Harper of The Athletic has the Grizzlies ranked 3rd at the mid-point of the season. The Cavs are 8th. Here are his comments on the Grizzlies:

The Grizzlies have turned it on in the second quarter of the season, winning 15 of their 19 games. Their defense has been the massive difference during this stretch to throw them into the mix for the top record in the West. Since we last checked in with the first-quarter marks, the Grizzlies’ defense has been not just the best in the league. The difference between the Grizzlies’ defense and second-place defense during this stretch is the same between second place and 19th. The Grizzlies are back to their bread and butter.

For the season the Grizzlies rank 1st in defensive efficiency, 4th in opponents’ points in the paint, 1st in effective field goal percentage, and 2nd in block percentage. They are a bear to score against (pun intended). No team is harder to score on, especially from inside. They’re pretty good from outside as well, ranking 8th in opponents’ 3-point percentage.

With Donovan Mitchell listed as doubtful due to a groin injury, it’s hard to see the Cavs scoring 100 points against the league’s best defense.

The Grizzlies are big, with 6’11” Steven Adams at center and 6’11” Jaren Jackson, Jr at power forward. The small forward is 6’7” Dillon Brooks while the guards are 6’5” Desmond Bane and 6’3” Ja Morant. Coming off the bench is 6’11” Santi Aldama and 6’8” Brandon Clarke. These guys are long and physical, making it difficult to get clean looks. They also rank 7th in steals per possession, so they’re just a great defensive team across the board.

Offensively they are above average, ranking 11th in offensive efficiency. They lead the NBA in points in the paint (59 per game) and they’re 2nd in offensive rebound percentage. They much prefer to take it to the rim, ranking 8th in frequency of shots at the rim and 28th in 3-point frequency. They are only 28th in accuracy at the rim, so they miss a lot of layups and close-in shots, but they rebound so many misses that they still score more than most teams.

It’s interesting that they rank 2nd in offensive rebound percentage but second last in points per second chance opportunity. I haven’t seen them play but the stats indicate a team that attacks the rim, misses some shots but gets the rebound and the putback on the second or third try.

For the Cavs it’s all going to come down to forcing misses in the paint and getting the rebound and preventing second and third shots.

The Grizzlies rank 2nd in fast break points, partly due to getting a lot of steals, so the Cavs need to protect the ball, avoid bad passes against a tall team, and get back on defense after a steal, a blocked shot, or a missed shot. Jaren Jackson Jr averages an amazing 3.3 blocked shots in 26 minutes, putting him in the top 1% of bigs. The Cavs need to be very aware of where he is when they take it into the paint.

The Cavs are 9-12 on the road where they average just 109 points per game against 114 at home. With Mitchell out, Wade still out, and Love struggling with his 3-point shot I don’t expect them to really be competitive against this team, which has lost just one home game in the last two months and is on a 10-game roll.

Love and Cedi have really struggled offensively the last few games so this would be a good time to give them minutes and let them put up some shots and try to get back in the groove. Rubio needs minutes to get back into the flow so limiting Garland’s minutes in favor of Rubio makes sense. LeVert will get a lot of minutes with Mitchell out and the Cavs could bring Neto in to guard Morant and see if he can disrupt their offensive star.

There are some interesting individual matchups to watch with Allen vs. Adams at center and Mobley vs. Jackson at power forward.
 
Hoping to see Okoro remain consistent, Rubio to get some minutes, and Love to figure things out. Don’t need to win this one, but can’t regress.
 
I think the Grizzlies will be in the Finals this year, and will be a team the Cavs face in future Finals series (just not this year). That said, even without Mitchell (who probably should rest the hammy) I hope the Cavs bring their A game and make this a competitive game. Garland/LeVert/Okoro/Mobley/Allen, with Rubio/Osman/Stevens/Love/Neto off the bench should be able to compete with any team in the league.
 
The Grizzlies are a bear at home. Not super optimistic about this one!
 
We’ll probably have to bear through this one tomorrow morning…

 
Missing Mitchell, I see us only having a 30% chance to win. We'll have to shoot great from the outside, with a 30-40 point game from Garland, great defense, great bench scoring, and a great game from LeVert. Our defense will put a dent in their interior scoring, but theirs will also dent ours. We'll need turnovers. I'd play Cedi a lot if he's hitting. The midrange 2 will be open all night. If Mobley is hitting his jumper, let him take 20 shots.

I will not predict a loss. I'm too positive for that. If we win, it'll be like 105-102.
 
If i were a betting man i'd be putting my money on Jarrett for poster of the night award . . .
 
We will all bear witness to Ja this evening.
 
I'm more interested in the bigs match-ups.

Jaren Jackson is physical, athletic, a shot blocker, as long as Mobley, and more coordinated than Mobley on offense.

Steven Adams is an immovable object and physical, the kind of big that JA struggles with.

I'd go with a Garland, Okoro, LeVert, Mobley, and JA lineup tonight. Okoro is a good match-up for Bane defensively. LeVert is also the same size as Brooks at SF. If JB starts with an Okoro/Stevens pairing, this game is over before it starts.
 
I'm more interested in the bigs match-ups.

Jaren Jackson is physical, athletic, a shot blocker, as long as Mobley, and more coordinated than Mobley on offense.

Steven Adams is an immovable object and physical, the kind of big that JA struggles with.

I'd go with a Garland, Okoro, LeVert, Mobley, and JA lineup tonight. Okoro is a good match-up for Bane defensively. LeVert is also the same size as Brooks at SF. If JB starts with an Okoro/Stevens pairing, this game is over before it starts.
With Ice hitting his outside shots like he has for the past few weeks, what is exactly the reason to avoid having him and Stevens on the court at the same time?
 
With Ice hitting his outside shots like he has for the past few weeks, what is exactly the reason to avoid having him and Stevens on the court at the same time?
Oh come on. He is taking 2 3's a game. LeVert is needed to take pressure of off thumbs(not exactly a piller of health).
 
I have a basket of nerf balls ready to toss at my television each time
the refs give Morant all the star calls and then some.
 
What are the bets?Ja by + 25?
 

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