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The Cavs return home after a one-point loss to Memphis to take on the Golden State Warriors, who will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, having lost to the Celtics in Boston last night in overtime. The W’s will be playing the 5th and final game of their road trip and this will be their 5th game in eight days. They should be pretty tired. The Cavs had yesterday off, so this looks like a scheduled loss for the W’s.
The Warriors were without Iguodala, Kuminga, Wiseman, and JaMychal Green last night and I expect they will be out tonight as well, so their bench is significantly depleted. All their starters are healthy, but Klay Thompson has not played on two consecutive nights this season so he may sit this one out. That would be a break for the Cavs since Thompson has hit 46.5% of his 3’s over the last seven games.
The W’s are 22-23 overall. They have the most extreme home/road differential in the league, going 17-5 at home and 5-18 on the road. In fact, only one team (Houston) has a worse road record than the Warriors, although they gave Boston all they could handle last night.
So this game involves a 19-4 team at home against a 5-18 team on the road, and playing on the second night of a back-to-back at that, not to mention having to play an overtime period. No excuse for the Cavs not to win this one.
The Warriors have an excellent starting lineup. Draymond Green is a +15.3 for the season, Steph Curry is +13.1, Klay Thompson is +10.0, Andrew Wiggins is +8.6, and Kevon Looney is +1.6. But their entire bench is negative except Donte DiVincenzo at +1.1.
These teams played out west on Nov. 11 with Golden State winning 106-101. The Cavs had them down but the W’s made a late run, outscoring the Cavs 19-6 over the final 4.5 minutes as the Cavs wilted down the stretch.
Curry had 13 points during that run and 40 for the game. Garland was coming off his eye injury and was 5-for-19. Cedi and Love were useless (3-for-14 in 43 minutes). Mitchell had a big game (29/10/9) and Mobley had 20 points and 13 rebounds, including 8 on the offensive glass.
The Warriors are a small team; Curry is 6’2”, Poole 6’4”, Thompson, Green, and Lamb 6’6”, Wiggins 6’7”, and Looney 6’9”. Allen and Mobley will have huge height advantages in the paint. Looney averages under 24 minutes a game, meaning the Warriors play half the game with nobody over 6’7” on the floor.
With Wiseman and JaMychal Green out the Warriors only have two available players over 6’7”; Looney at 6’9” and rookie Patrick Baldwin Jr, also 6’9”. Baldwin was the 28th pick in this year’s draft and has only played in 14 games.
The W’s rank 16th in offensive efficiency. They are an extreme outside shooting team, ranking last in shot attempts at the rim and first in 3-point attempts. They lead the NBA in percentage of points on 3’s (nearly 42%) and are 28th in points in the paint. They are also last in free throw attempts per possession. They are great shooters (5th in effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage), but they don’t get to the foul line much and commit a lot of turnovers (2nd most in the league) which limits their scoring.
They love to pass the ball (2nd in assists per possession) but all that passing results in turnovers as well as open shots. The Warriors should have tired legs at the end of a road trip and on the second night of a back-to-back, which will affect their 3-point shooting. The Cavs need to make sure they keep switching on the perimeter and contest the 3-point shots without fouling.
The Warriors are 1-5 this year on the second night of back-to-backs on the road. Curry and Poole each played 43 minutes last night; the rest of the starters played 36-40. If Thompson gets rested the W’s may have just seven rotation players - they used eight last night.
Defensively the Warriors are not bad, ranking 11th in efficiency despite their lack of height. They even defend the paint pretty well, ranking 14th. They’re a little above average across the board except they don’t block shots (27th in block percentage), get steals (25th), and they hack a lot (28th in opponents’ free throws per possession).
In the first game the W’s committed 27 fouls, including three technicals and one flagrant. The Cavs lost that game because they only hit 8 of 30 attempts on 3’s while the W’s knocked down 15 of 36; a 21-point difference.
On offense the Cavs need to attack the rim or get the ball inside to Allen and Mobley, who will have huge height advantages. Force the W’s to foul, or at least collapse the defense freeing up open shooters at the 3-point line for the inside-outside game.
Caris LeVert is having a very good month and is coming off a great game against Memphis. I can see him and Garland getting into the paint for layups, floaters, lobs to the bigs, or kickouts for open 3’s. Mobley had 20 points and 8 offensive boards last time and he is coming off a great game as well.
Defensively it’s all about contesting the 3’s and making Curry run around and work hard for his shots. He’ll be on the second game of a back-to-back so try and wear him down so his 3’s aren’t dropping as much. Make him work on defense, too. Don’t let him rest and save his energy for offense. Garland and LeVert should take turns going at him on defense almost every possession.
Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable and even if he can play it makes sense to give him another day since they play Milwaukee tomorrow. The Cavs should be able to handle Golden State and their 5-18 road record even without Donovan.
The Warriors are looking at the sunset of their dynasty. Curry is 34, Draymond Green and Thompson are 32. Iggy is 38. They really needed James Wiseman, the #2 overall pick now in his third season, to emerge as a star and give them the big man they so desperately need, but he has played only 58 games out of 209, not counting playoffs. He’s their Dylan Windler, although he cost them a much higher pick.
Jonathan Kuminga, the 7th overall pick two years ago, is averaging 7.5 points in 19 minutes and is a turnover machine. Moses Moody, the #14 pick in 2021, is averaging 5.2 points in 15 minutes. A shooting guard, he is stuck behind Thompson, Poole, and Ty Jerome.
The Warriors are in 7th place in the West, but there are seven teams with records between 24-22 and 22-24. Portland is 21-24. The Lakers at 20-25 could get into that mix once Anthony Davis returns in early February.
That’s 8-9 teams who are pretty much in a dead heat for positions 5-12. At least two of them will miss the play-in. The Warriors, if they make the playoffs, will not have home court advantage in the first round and I can’t see them surviving the first round without it, since they have the second worst road record in the league.
I know this sounds crazy but they should trade Curry while he’s still great, and Thompson as well, and try to get multiple first round picks to rebuild with. However, Curry will make between $52-59 million over each of the next three years so I can’t see a trade happening. He’ll be 35 in a few weeks. Thompson has had multiple injuries and is not the quite the player he was in his prime. He’ll make $43 million next year.
The Warriors were without Iguodala, Kuminga, Wiseman, and JaMychal Green last night and I expect they will be out tonight as well, so their bench is significantly depleted. All their starters are healthy, but Klay Thompson has not played on two consecutive nights this season so he may sit this one out. That would be a break for the Cavs since Thompson has hit 46.5% of his 3’s over the last seven games.
The W’s are 22-23 overall. They have the most extreme home/road differential in the league, going 17-5 at home and 5-18 on the road. In fact, only one team (Houston) has a worse road record than the Warriors, although they gave Boston all they could handle last night.
So this game involves a 19-4 team at home against a 5-18 team on the road, and playing on the second night of a back-to-back at that, not to mention having to play an overtime period. No excuse for the Cavs not to win this one.
The Warriors have an excellent starting lineup. Draymond Green is a +15.3 for the season, Steph Curry is +13.1, Klay Thompson is +10.0, Andrew Wiggins is +8.6, and Kevon Looney is +1.6. But their entire bench is negative except Donte DiVincenzo at +1.1.
These teams played out west on Nov. 11 with Golden State winning 106-101. The Cavs had them down but the W’s made a late run, outscoring the Cavs 19-6 over the final 4.5 minutes as the Cavs wilted down the stretch.
Curry had 13 points during that run and 40 for the game. Garland was coming off his eye injury and was 5-for-19. Cedi and Love were useless (3-for-14 in 43 minutes). Mitchell had a big game (29/10/9) and Mobley had 20 points and 13 rebounds, including 8 on the offensive glass.
The Warriors are a small team; Curry is 6’2”, Poole 6’4”, Thompson, Green, and Lamb 6’6”, Wiggins 6’7”, and Looney 6’9”. Allen and Mobley will have huge height advantages in the paint. Looney averages under 24 minutes a game, meaning the Warriors play half the game with nobody over 6’7” on the floor.
With Wiseman and JaMychal Green out the Warriors only have two available players over 6’7”; Looney at 6’9” and rookie Patrick Baldwin Jr, also 6’9”. Baldwin was the 28th pick in this year’s draft and has only played in 14 games.
The W’s rank 16th in offensive efficiency. They are an extreme outside shooting team, ranking last in shot attempts at the rim and first in 3-point attempts. They lead the NBA in percentage of points on 3’s (nearly 42%) and are 28th in points in the paint. They are also last in free throw attempts per possession. They are great shooters (5th in effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage), but they don’t get to the foul line much and commit a lot of turnovers (2nd most in the league) which limits their scoring.
They love to pass the ball (2nd in assists per possession) but all that passing results in turnovers as well as open shots. The Warriors should have tired legs at the end of a road trip and on the second night of a back-to-back, which will affect their 3-point shooting. The Cavs need to make sure they keep switching on the perimeter and contest the 3-point shots without fouling.
The Warriors are 1-5 this year on the second night of back-to-backs on the road. Curry and Poole each played 43 minutes last night; the rest of the starters played 36-40. If Thompson gets rested the W’s may have just seven rotation players - they used eight last night.
Defensively the Warriors are not bad, ranking 11th in efficiency despite their lack of height. They even defend the paint pretty well, ranking 14th. They’re a little above average across the board except they don’t block shots (27th in block percentage), get steals (25th), and they hack a lot (28th in opponents’ free throws per possession).
In the first game the W’s committed 27 fouls, including three technicals and one flagrant. The Cavs lost that game because they only hit 8 of 30 attempts on 3’s while the W’s knocked down 15 of 36; a 21-point difference.
On offense the Cavs need to attack the rim or get the ball inside to Allen and Mobley, who will have huge height advantages. Force the W’s to foul, or at least collapse the defense freeing up open shooters at the 3-point line for the inside-outside game.
Caris LeVert is having a very good month and is coming off a great game against Memphis. I can see him and Garland getting into the paint for layups, floaters, lobs to the bigs, or kickouts for open 3’s. Mobley had 20 points and 8 offensive boards last time and he is coming off a great game as well.
Defensively it’s all about contesting the 3’s and making Curry run around and work hard for his shots. He’ll be on the second game of a back-to-back so try and wear him down so his 3’s aren’t dropping as much. Make him work on defense, too. Don’t let him rest and save his energy for offense. Garland and LeVert should take turns going at him on defense almost every possession.
Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable and even if he can play it makes sense to give him another day since they play Milwaukee tomorrow. The Cavs should be able to handle Golden State and their 5-18 road record even without Donovan.
The Warriors are looking at the sunset of their dynasty. Curry is 34, Draymond Green and Thompson are 32. Iggy is 38. They really needed James Wiseman, the #2 overall pick now in his third season, to emerge as a star and give them the big man they so desperately need, but he has played only 58 games out of 209, not counting playoffs. He’s their Dylan Windler, although he cost them a much higher pick.
Jonathan Kuminga, the 7th overall pick two years ago, is averaging 7.5 points in 19 minutes and is a turnover machine. Moses Moody, the #14 pick in 2021, is averaging 5.2 points in 15 minutes. A shooting guard, he is stuck behind Thompson, Poole, and Ty Jerome.
The Warriors are in 7th place in the West, but there are seven teams with records between 24-22 and 22-24. Portland is 21-24. The Lakers at 20-25 could get into that mix once Anthony Davis returns in early February.
That’s 8-9 teams who are pretty much in a dead heat for positions 5-12. At least two of them will miss the play-in. The Warriors, if they make the playoffs, will not have home court advantage in the first round and I can’t see them surviving the first round without it, since they have the second worst road record in the league.
I know this sounds crazy but they should trade Curry while he’s still great, and Thompson as well, and try to get multiple first round picks to rebuild with. However, Curry will make between $52-59 million over each of the next three years so I can’t see a trade happening. He’ll be 35 in a few weeks. Thompson has had multiple injuries and is not the quite the player he was in his prime. He’ll make $43 million next year.
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