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Riding high on a four-game win streak the Cavs return home to face the 3-2 New York Knicks. It’s hard to say how good the Knicks are as they are 3-0 at home against losing teams and 0-2 on the road against 4-1 Memphis and 4-0 Milwaukee. The loss to Memphis was in OT and the loss to Milwaukee Friday night was by a 119-108 score. They played very competitively in their two losses.
cleaningtheglass.com's point differential rankings (which exclude garbage time) has the Cavs 1st and the Knicks 7th. From the limited action we’ve seen so far it appears the Knicks are better than expected.
Excerpts from John Hollinger’s season preview:
Last season: 35-47; 21st in offense, 25th in defense
Key additions: PG Jalen Brunson, C Isaiah Hartenstein, SG Svi Mykhailiuk
Key subtractions: PG Kemba Walker, C Nerlens Noel, SG Alec Burks, C Taj Gibson
Draft picks: SG Trevor Keels (42nd)
The Knicks don’t appear to have anywhere near the offensive talent level of the Eastern Conference’s elite. Meanwhile, the NBA’s third-ranked defense in 2020-21 looks more like a mirage built on Jedi 3-point defense than something they can realistically achieve again.
So my big-picture takeaway from the Knicks’ 2022 offseason is that they did nothing particularly objectionable and a couple of things that may turn out to be smart, and those moves nonetheless will likely have near-zero impact on the 2022-23 win total….
In the shorter term, however, I don’t love the micro of how the Knicks are built. Their best players are all left-handed paint attackers, and the one guy who is supposed to keep them honest (Evan Fournier) is starting to show his age. Brunson thrived in Dallas largely playing in four- and five-out lineups that allowed him to attack creases one-on-one with limited help; the Knicks rarely have four perimeter threats on the court…
In the meantime, basketball games will be played, and the Knicks have just enough on hand to win roughly half of them, which is better than they’ve done in 17 of the last 21 seasons but doesn’t answer the question of how they can lure their elusive superstar.
Prediction: 39-43, 10th in East
The stats don’t mean much after five games but FWIW, the Knicks are tied for 3rd in scoring at 119.8 points per game, an improvement of a whopping 13.3 points per game over last season. They are only only 13th in offensive efficiency but they lead the NBA in points in the paint, mostly because they are 5th in offensive rebound percentage. The Knicks are averaging 14.4 offensive boards per game, so they get a lot of second chance opportunities.
The Cavaliers are 4th in defensive rebound percentage at 80.4%, up from 76.4% last year, so they should be able to keep the Knicks from getting too many put-backs.
The Knicks approach is to get the ball into the paint, put it up, and crash the glass. As Hollinger pointed out, “their best players are all left-handed paint attackers”. The Cavaliers are average so far at defending the paint, statistically at least.
The Knicks are 5th in percent of points from 2’s and 21st in percent from 3’s, so they are definitely an old school, pound it inside team. Surprisingly they don’t get fouled much, ranking 27th in free throws per possession and 28th in percentage of points from the stripe.
They protect the ball (3rd lowest turnover rate), get a shot up, and crash the glass. The Cavs need to stay in front of their man like they did in the second half against the Celtics so their bigs don’t have to abandon their man to contest the shot, opening up an easy put-back.
Between Allen and Mobley the Knicks should have a tough time scoring from the paint as long as the Cavs take care of the defensive glass.
Defensively the Knicks rank 18th in points per game. They defend the 3-point shot very well, ranking third in opponents’ 3-point percentage at 29.9%. The Cavs lead the NBA in 3-point percentage so something has to give.
The Knicks foul a lot, ranking 23rd in opponents’ free throw attempts per play. They are conservative on defense, ranking third from last in turnovers. Surprisingly they are also third from worst in defensive rebound percentage. The don’t force turnovers, they foul a lot, and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. But they defend the 3 very well and that puts them 18th in scoring defense.
Their offensive star is PF Julius Randle who averages 19.0 ppg and 9.4 rebounds. Randle crashes the glass, averaging 2.6 offensive rebounds per game. But he’s only shooting 44.7% overall and 27.3% from deep.
At 6’8” Randle will be at a height disadvantage against Mobley and Allen, but IIRC he is a classic back to the basket player with a nice fallaway once he muscles his way to his spot.
PG Jalen Brunson, 6’1”, is off to a nice start at 18.6 points and 7.2 assists. He’s shooting 48.6%. Just looking at the numbers I would say Brunson is mainly responsible for the Knicks offensive surge since last year. He’s a huge upgrade over Kemba Walker, who shot just 40% and is out of the league.
SG RJ Barrett averages 18.2 points but is having some shooting issues, hitting just 37.8% overall and 14.3% from deep. He’s been a high volume, low efficiency scorer. But Barrett leads the Knicks’ starters in on/off as they are 13.8 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor versus off.
Evan Fournier (11.0 points) is the shooting guard and Mitch Robinson (8.0 points, 3.6 offensive rebounds) starts at center. However, Isaiah Hartenstein, the former Cav, comes off the bench to divide the center minutes equally with Robinson. Allen will have his hands full keeping Robinson off the offensive glass. I’m sure they’ve faced each other a lot from when Allen was in Brooklyn.
Obi Toppin, who the Cavs passed on in favor of Isaac Okoro (Toppin went 8th) is having a solid year off the bench, shooting 55.9% from the field and 53.3% on 3’s. He is getting 16 minutes a game. It would seem like he deserves more but he plays the same position as Randle. In fact, the Knicks are 17.1 points better when Toppin is on versus off.
Derrick Rose is still kicking at age 34. He comes off the bench to average 8.8 points in 13 minutes at 51.5% and 46.7% from deep. He can still fill it up if you let him.
Cam Reddish, 6’8”, is shooting 48.6% in 19 minutes a game and Emmanuel Quickly is scoring 9.0 points a game. Hartenstein averages 8.6 points and 7.8 rebounds in 25 minutes. It looks like he may have finally figured out how not to get called for a foul on every possession - he’s only getting called 3.0 times per 25 minutes.
The Knicks primary bench players are +17.1 (Toppin), +9.3 (Quickley), +5.3 (Rose), and +0.8 (Hartenstein). Reddish is -0.1. Their bench has been much better than their starters (Fournier -16.9, Randle -13.6, Brunson -4.2, Robinson -8.2). Barrett is the only starter with a positive on/off number. The Cavs can’t afford to get too confident if they get a lead and the Knicks go to their bench - that's been the strength of their team.
So those are the Knicks. They have some offensive talent, both starters and bench. So far they’re averaging just under 120 points per game so this will be a test for the Cavs’ defense, which ranks 2nd in opponents’ scoring in the NBA. The key is to force the Knicks to shoot contested shots and box out. Minimize their second chance points and they’re an average offensive team. Take away the paint and make them shoot 3’s - they rank 26th in 3-point accuracy.
Defensively they foul a lot and give up a lot of offensive rebounds, so I would pound it inside to our bigs or take it to the rim and get ourselves in the bonus early. Beat them off the dribble and make Robinson or Randle contest the shooter, leaving a man open to clean up the missed shot.
cleaningtheglass.com's point differential rankings (which exclude garbage time) has the Cavs 1st and the Knicks 7th. From the limited action we’ve seen so far it appears the Knicks are better than expected.
Excerpts from John Hollinger’s season preview:
Last season: 35-47; 21st in offense, 25th in defense
Key additions: PG Jalen Brunson, C Isaiah Hartenstein, SG Svi Mykhailiuk
Key subtractions: PG Kemba Walker, C Nerlens Noel, SG Alec Burks, C Taj Gibson
Draft picks: SG Trevor Keels (42nd)
The Knicks don’t appear to have anywhere near the offensive talent level of the Eastern Conference’s elite. Meanwhile, the NBA’s third-ranked defense in 2020-21 looks more like a mirage built on Jedi 3-point defense than something they can realistically achieve again.
So my big-picture takeaway from the Knicks’ 2022 offseason is that they did nothing particularly objectionable and a couple of things that may turn out to be smart, and those moves nonetheless will likely have near-zero impact on the 2022-23 win total….
In the shorter term, however, I don’t love the micro of how the Knicks are built. Their best players are all left-handed paint attackers, and the one guy who is supposed to keep them honest (Evan Fournier) is starting to show his age. Brunson thrived in Dallas largely playing in four- and five-out lineups that allowed him to attack creases one-on-one with limited help; the Knicks rarely have four perimeter threats on the court…
In the meantime, basketball games will be played, and the Knicks have just enough on hand to win roughly half of them, which is better than they’ve done in 17 of the last 21 seasons but doesn’t answer the question of how they can lure their elusive superstar.
Prediction: 39-43, 10th in East
The stats don’t mean much after five games but FWIW, the Knicks are tied for 3rd in scoring at 119.8 points per game, an improvement of a whopping 13.3 points per game over last season. They are only only 13th in offensive efficiency but they lead the NBA in points in the paint, mostly because they are 5th in offensive rebound percentage. The Knicks are averaging 14.4 offensive boards per game, so they get a lot of second chance opportunities.
The Cavaliers are 4th in defensive rebound percentage at 80.4%, up from 76.4% last year, so they should be able to keep the Knicks from getting too many put-backs.
The Knicks approach is to get the ball into the paint, put it up, and crash the glass. As Hollinger pointed out, “their best players are all left-handed paint attackers”. The Cavaliers are average so far at defending the paint, statistically at least.
The Knicks are 5th in percent of points from 2’s and 21st in percent from 3’s, so they are definitely an old school, pound it inside team. Surprisingly they don’t get fouled much, ranking 27th in free throws per possession and 28th in percentage of points from the stripe.
They protect the ball (3rd lowest turnover rate), get a shot up, and crash the glass. The Cavs need to stay in front of their man like they did in the second half against the Celtics so their bigs don’t have to abandon their man to contest the shot, opening up an easy put-back.
Between Allen and Mobley the Knicks should have a tough time scoring from the paint as long as the Cavs take care of the defensive glass.
Defensively the Knicks rank 18th in points per game. They defend the 3-point shot very well, ranking third in opponents’ 3-point percentage at 29.9%. The Cavs lead the NBA in 3-point percentage so something has to give.
The Knicks foul a lot, ranking 23rd in opponents’ free throw attempts per play. They are conservative on defense, ranking third from last in turnovers. Surprisingly they are also third from worst in defensive rebound percentage. The don’t force turnovers, they foul a lot, and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. But they defend the 3 very well and that puts them 18th in scoring defense.
Their offensive star is PF Julius Randle who averages 19.0 ppg and 9.4 rebounds. Randle crashes the glass, averaging 2.6 offensive rebounds per game. But he’s only shooting 44.7% overall and 27.3% from deep.
At 6’8” Randle will be at a height disadvantage against Mobley and Allen, but IIRC he is a classic back to the basket player with a nice fallaway once he muscles his way to his spot.
PG Jalen Brunson, 6’1”, is off to a nice start at 18.6 points and 7.2 assists. He’s shooting 48.6%. Just looking at the numbers I would say Brunson is mainly responsible for the Knicks offensive surge since last year. He’s a huge upgrade over Kemba Walker, who shot just 40% and is out of the league.
SG RJ Barrett averages 18.2 points but is having some shooting issues, hitting just 37.8% overall and 14.3% from deep. He’s been a high volume, low efficiency scorer. But Barrett leads the Knicks’ starters in on/off as they are 13.8 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor versus off.
Evan Fournier (11.0 points) is the shooting guard and Mitch Robinson (8.0 points, 3.6 offensive rebounds) starts at center. However, Isaiah Hartenstein, the former Cav, comes off the bench to divide the center minutes equally with Robinson. Allen will have his hands full keeping Robinson off the offensive glass. I’m sure they’ve faced each other a lot from when Allen was in Brooklyn.
Obi Toppin, who the Cavs passed on in favor of Isaac Okoro (Toppin went 8th) is having a solid year off the bench, shooting 55.9% from the field and 53.3% on 3’s. He is getting 16 minutes a game. It would seem like he deserves more but he plays the same position as Randle. In fact, the Knicks are 17.1 points better when Toppin is on versus off.
Derrick Rose is still kicking at age 34. He comes off the bench to average 8.8 points in 13 minutes at 51.5% and 46.7% from deep. He can still fill it up if you let him.
Cam Reddish, 6’8”, is shooting 48.6% in 19 minutes a game and Emmanuel Quickly is scoring 9.0 points a game. Hartenstein averages 8.6 points and 7.8 rebounds in 25 minutes. It looks like he may have finally figured out how not to get called for a foul on every possession - he’s only getting called 3.0 times per 25 minutes.
The Knicks primary bench players are +17.1 (Toppin), +9.3 (Quickley), +5.3 (Rose), and +0.8 (Hartenstein). Reddish is -0.1. Their bench has been much better than their starters (Fournier -16.9, Randle -13.6, Brunson -4.2, Robinson -8.2). Barrett is the only starter with a positive on/off number. The Cavs can’t afford to get too confident if they get a lead and the Knicks go to their bench - that's been the strength of their team.
So those are the Knicks. They have some offensive talent, both starters and bench. So far they’re averaging just under 120 points per game so this will be a test for the Cavs’ defense, which ranks 2nd in opponents’ scoring in the NBA. The key is to force the Knicks to shoot contested shots and box out. Minimize their second chance points and they’re an average offensive team. Take away the paint and make them shoot 3’s - they rank 26th in 3-point accuracy.
Defensively they foul a lot and give up a lot of offensive rebounds, so I would pound it inside to our bigs or take it to the rim and get ourselves in the bonus early. Beat them off the dribble and make Robinson or Randle contest the shooter, leaving a man open to clean up the missed shot.
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