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Game Thread | Game #70 | Cavs @ Hornets | March 12, 2023 | 5:00 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After splitting a pair in South Beach the Cavs move up the coast to Charlotte for a pair of games on Sunday and Tuesday. Then they fly home for a big game Wednesday against Philly on a back-to-back. Tough schedule.

Charlotte is 22-47 overall and 11-21 at home. They will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but no travel. This game is at 5 p.m.

The Hornets lost to Utah at home last night 119-111 despite Clarkson and Sexton being out and Markkanen going 3-for-22 from the field. The Cavs probably watched the game and got some ideas on how to attack the Hornets.

Jarrett Allen will miss this game with an eye injury and Darius Garland is questionable. With two key starters likely to be out and a bench that ranks 29th in scoring, points could be hard to come by for the Cavs.

The Cavs beat the Hornets in Cleveland nearly three months ago in double overtime by a score of 132-122. The Hornets scored 35 points off 20 Cavalier turnovers and outscored the Cavs 19-2 on fast breaks. The Cavs’ sloppy ball-handling gave the Hornets a chance, but the Cavs finally broke them to win the second overtime by a 12-2 score. Garland had 8 turnovers that game and Mitchell had 6.

The guards for both teams were lights out in that game as Garland scored 41, Mitchell 34, Oubre 34, and Rozier 28. Power forward PJ Washington also had 28 for Charlotte.

The Hornets rank 26th in scoring and 30th in offensive efficiency. In six games in March they are averaging just 103.2 points and under 44% from the field. Kelly Oubre Jr and Terry Rozier combine to average 46 of their 112 points per game. Washington averages 15 and Gordon Hayward 14.

Since the last time these teams played center Mason Plumlee was traded and replaced in the starting lineup by either rookie Mark Williams or Nick Richards, who both average 8 points and 6 rebounds.

The Hornets are awful 3-point shooters, hitting just 32.8% as a team. Washington is their best 3-point shooter at 35%.

They are missing their leading scorer and assister, LaMelo Ball, who averaged 23.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 8.4 assists in 36 games. They had won five straight when he fractured his ankle on Feb. 27. Since then they are 2-5.

The Hornets are 8th in steals per possession and 6th in fast break points, so they depend on getting steals and transition buckets like they did against the Cavs in November. This time around Mitchell and Garland (or LeVert and Rubio) need to protect the ball better. They can’t give up 35 points off turnovers and expect to win on the road.

The Hornets rank 5th in field goal attempts per game (they play fast) but 26th in scoring because they are very bad shooters, especially from deep. The Hornets are 7th in points in the paint so they depend on getting to the rim to score, along with scoring on fast breaks. With Allen out they should have more success. The Hornets scored 105 points in regulation in the first game, in which Ball did not play.

With no Jarrett Allen I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dean Wade get more minutes tonight in order to try and keep the Hornets from getting to the rim.

The key for the Cavs defensively is to defend the paint. On the perimeter they need to focus their defense on Oubre and Rozier, who combined for 62 points the last game these teams played. Oubre is averaging 25 points in March at 45% and 42% so he has been hot lately. He was 6-for-12 last night from deep. Gordon Hayward is shooting 39% on 3’s in March.

The biggest risk for the Cavs is if some combination of Rozier, Oubre, and Hayward get hot from outside. We saw that two nights ago in Miami with Herro and Strus. But as a team the Hornets are making just 33% from deep and 34% in March.

Defensively the Hornets are below average (24th in scoring, 21st in efficiency) but they’re not terrible in any category. They gamble a lot for steals, ranking 8th. They probably understand that they’re poor shooters and need to generate easy buckets with their defense, so they have to take risks.

cleaningtheglass.com has the Hornets ranked 27th in point differential; 30th on offense and 20th on defense. But in the last two weeks they are 29th on offense and 3rd on defense at 109 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs are 1st at 107.2 the last two weeks, so both these teams have been very good defensively. This may be misleading as the Hornets have played Detroit twice, Brooklyn, and Orlando in the last two weeks. Last night they got burned for 119 points by a Utah team missing two of their three leading scorers.

In terms of shot frequency, the Hornets rank 4th in shot attempts at the rim, 19th in mid-range, and 22nd on 3’s. They’re all about getting to the rim. In terms of accuracy the Hornets are below average at the rim, ranking 22nd. They’re last in accuracy at the mid-range and 3-point shots after you strip out garbage time.

The Cavs just need to minimize turnovers on offense (especially steals), defend the paint on defense, and force Oubre and Rozier to take contested shots or give up the ball. The Cavs are the better team but without Allen and possibly Garland and playing on the road this will be a challenging game.

This is a solid opportunity to get two more wins and maintain their lead over the Knicks for 4th place. The Knicks are at the Lakers today and at the Blazers Tuesday after losing to the Clippers last night, so the Cavs have a chance to seal the deal for home court advantage in the first round with a couple of wins combined with Knicks losses.
 
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Fun fact; the Cavs are 32-26 when Garland plays and 10-1 when he doesn't so if he is out tonight it may not kill their chances.

Since Feb. 1 they are 10-4 when he plays, losing at Philly, at Boston, at Atlanta, and home against Denver.
 
We have a decent cushion over the Knicks for the four spot but with the way we’ve been playing it’s kind of critical we nail these “easy” games against cellar dwellers. We better take both of these games.
 
The Nets have actually moved ahead of the Knicks by percentage points in 5th place. The extent of Brunson's injury will be critical for New York just as Allen's injury will be critical for the Cavs.
 
Barring something very strange happening down the stretch, the Cavs look like a lock for the 4 seed.
 
Barring something very strange happening down the stretch, the Cavs look like a lock for the 4 seed.
Still too early to count those chickens but over the next three days if the Knicks lose to the Lakers and Portland on the road while the Cavs beat the Hornets twice the Knicks will be five games behind the Cavs with 11 to play and they will be out of the 4th place running.

The Cavs have two games in Brooklyn nine and eleven days from now. Hopefully Allen will be OK and playing by then. The Nets play the first place Nuggets twice and the second place Kings once before the Cavs come to town.
 
Here is part of my comment after the Cavs beat the Hornets in double OT way back in Game #15:

Cavs were outscored 35-10 on turnovers. Disgraceful.

They also gave up 17 offensive rebounds. It's a miracle they won.

Another unbelievable choke job as they led by 10 points with 1:45 left. Somehow they let Charlotte score 14 points in 1:44. Are you freaking kidding me? The Hornets got a layup and then went 4-for-4 from deep.

Other than those four 3's at the end of the 4th quarter they were 10-for-42 from deep.

We see this from time to time; the Cavs get a nice lead and the opponent, short on time, has no choice but to start jacking up 3's. They get hot and the Cavs start missing shots and committing turnovers. We saw that Friday against Miami.

In those situations the Cavs need to be more aware that the opponent's 3-point shooters like Herro and Strus are going to start shooting 3's, especially in transition and early in the shot clock, and to force them off the 3-point line or at least contest those shots effectively.
 
And what if they do disappoint you? What pray tell will you do about it?
 
Let’s just take care of business start to finish. Is that possible?
 
Okay, this is like a 'no win' prediction: if the Cavs win, so what? They're expected to win. If they lose then the forum will scream for a couple of days.

I'm more aggravated about Garland being out than Allen. I didn't even know he got injured in Miami. I always take 'questionable' to mean the player will play. I don't know how bad Allen's eye is. It doesn't seem as bad as Garland's was. A 'contusion' is a bruise. My question is, is the eyeball bruised or the socket?

I don't have a big problem with resting Allen in this game, but we need Garland to play. Mitchell can kill them all by himself, but Garland is key to unlock our bigs. Donovan, I love him, but I hold my breath every time he passes to our bigs. It's like a 50-50 chance of a turnover.

Assuming Garland plays, I give us a 60% chance of winning. 119-103. Without Garland, 52% chance, 110-107.

Retroactive edit to last game against Miami: If I'd known Garland was out, I would have reduced our chances of winning from 50% to 45%.
 
Your numbers are WAY off, jjvors. 63.7% chance with Garland, 50.15% without.
 

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