Game Thread | Game #78 | Knicks @ Cavs | March 31, 2023

[Wham with the Right Hand]

After two days off and having played just two games in the last six days, the well-rested Cavaliers close out March with a home game against the New York Knicks in what should be a preview of their first round playoff series. The Cavs and Knicks are both pretty much locked into the 4th and 5th seeds. The Knicks are four games behind the Cavs with five to play and they are 2.5 games ahead of 6th place Brooklyn.

My guess is neither team will want to show the other too much since this is probably a meaningless game. The Knicks lead the season series 2-1 but the cumulative score is 305-305. The home team has won all three games.

The Knicks were a mediocre team through the first two-thirds of the season. After 57 games they were 30-27, then came a 9-game winning streak, and since then they are 5-6. They are 44-33 overall, but take away that win streak and they are 35-33.

The Knicks have lost their best player, PF Julius Randle, for at least two weeks with a sprained ankle. The Cavaliers with be without Isaac Okoro, so neither team will be at full strength. Jarret Allen is either doubtful or a game time decision depending on the source. I doubt he will play since the last thing the Cavs need is for him to aggravate a groin strain. Dean Wade is either probable or doubtful, depending on the source.

Offensively the Knicks are 13th in points per game. They are 10th in 3-point rate but 22nd in 3-point percentage. They play a lot of isolation ball, ranking 28th in assists per possession. They draw a lot of fouls (7th in made free throws per game) and get a lot of offensive rebounds (2nd in OR percentage). So even though their effective field goal percentage is only 21st they are 13th in scoring because of free throws and second chance points. They are very good at not coughing it up, ranking 5th fewest in turnovers. They don’t run much, ranking 24th in fast break points. They take their time, try to get a favorable matchup, go one-on-one, then crash the offensive glass.

Julius Randle leads the way with a line of 25/10/4. He’s shooting 46% from the field and 34% on 3’s, but in three games against the Cavs he’s hitting 41% on 3’s. His absence is huge since he is their leading scorer and rebounder and tied for the team lead in assists. Obi Toppin probably replaces Randle. He’s shooting 42% and 33% in 14 minutes per game.

PG Jalen Brunson is having a great season with 24 points and 6 assists per game on 49% and 41%. The Cavs have held him to 18 points and 5 assists on 42% and 30%, so Darius and company have done a great job on him defensively.

RJ Barrett averages 20 points and 5 rebounds but is only hitting 44% overall and 32% from deep. However, he’s making 50% of his 3’s against Cleveland (8-for-16). They need to contest his 3’s a little better.

The other starters, Quentin Grimes and Mitch Robinson, average 10 and 7 points, respectively. Grimes is shooting just 35% and 18% against the Cavs. Robinson has scored only 9 points in 54 minutes but has 18 rebounds.

Immanuel Quickley averages 14 points off the bench and Josh Hart, acquired at the deadline, has a line of 11/7/4 in 19 games and is shooting an impressive 61% overall and 56% on 3’s since joining the Knicks. With Randle out I expect Brunson, Hart, and Quickley to take more shots than usual so they should have a guard dominated offense tonight.

Defensively the Knicks rank 9th in opponents’ points per game, 1st in points in the paint, and 5th in effective field goal percentage. Probably because they are so good in the paint opponents shoot a lot of 3’s, 6th most to be exact. But the Knicks also defend the 3-pointer very well, ranking 8th in opponents’ 3-point percentage.

The Knicks play conservatively on defense, ranking 24th in block percentage, 27th in steal percentage, and 26th in opponents’ turnover percentage. They don’t gamble for blocks or steals but just try to contest shots. They’re 11th in defensive rebound percentage.

Donovan Mitchell has been punishing the Knicks, averaging 28.3 points and 8.3 assists in three games. Garland has really struggled, shooting just 31% against the Knicks in two games with just 4.5 assists in 37 minutes per game. Caris LeVert has been abysmal, averaging just 4.7 points on 21% shooting and 22% on 3’s. Cedi is shooting 31% against the Knicks this year and 20% on 3’s. This would be a good game for those three to get off the schnide because we will almost surely being playing the Knicks in the first round.

The Knicks travel very well with a 22-16 road record. The Cavs are 30-8 at home, second only to Milwaukee (30-7) in the East.

The last time these teams played the Knicks were 17-for-33 on 3’s (at MSG) and won by 2 points. Kevin Love was a -20 in 12 minutes and never played for the Cavs again. The Cavs’ bench scored 12 points that night.

I don’t know if either team is going to make a big effort to win this game. I assume the Knicks want to stay ahead of Brooklyn in order to play Cleveland in the first round instead of Philadelphia. Brooklyn has six games left; five at home and a road game against Detroit. They could win them all, including their final game against Philly in which the Sixers could rest their starters if the game doesn’t matter. So the Knicks might need to win a few more games to stay ahead of Brooklyn and that will be tougher with Randle out.

 

[The Oi]

Windhorst claiming Jalen Brunson said the Knicks will, “beat the brakes off the Cavs tonight.”

Thought that was pretty bold.

 

[CanadaEh]

I’m in town for the game; what’s the best spot to grab a few beers afterwards?

 

[The Oi]

I’m in town for the game; what’s the best spot to grab a few beers afterwards?

Molsen’s?

 

[PdL59]

Wham, Thanks for yet one more great game breakdown!

I believe this is game 78, since the two before was both #76.

 

[jjvors]

I’m in town for the game; what’s the best spot to grab a few beers afterwards?

Great Lakes Brewing Company I love their beer.

 

[jmuxl]

I’m in town for the game; what’s the best spot to grab a few beers afterwards?

If you're willing to catch an Uber, come over to Ohio City. Great Lakes, Nano Brew, and Market Garden are all quality.

If you're sticking around downtown, Masthead or Southern Tier for a quality beer. Johnny's little bar or Map room for a dive spot.

 

[Dr No]

This game matters far more to them than to us. I’m not going to be upset if we lose. JBB would be better to send the signal to the Knicks that “we know we have this wrapped up and we will see you at our place in a few weeks” than to play our starters 40 minutes again. Neto, Green, Wade and Lopez need to get into double digit minutes for 2 reasons - 1. There is no need to grind our starters down at this point. 2. The future is unpredictable and we may need one of these guys because of injury or situation. Let them play some meaningful minutes down the stretch so they can be as ready as possible.

 

[Omar The Horse]

This game matters far more to them than to us. I’m not going to be upset if we lose. JBB would be better to send the signal to the Knicks that “we know we have this wrapped up and we will see you at our place in a few weeks” than to play our starters 40 minutes again. Neto, Green, Wade and Lopez need to get into double digit minutes for 2 reasons - 1. There is no need to grind our starters down at this point. 2. The future is unpredictable and we may need one of these guys because of injury or situation. Let them play some meaningful minutes down the stretch so they can be as ready as possible.

JBB is a one way street brother. The core getting that

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Good column on the Knicks at cleveland.com:

5 Knicks stats that could determine a potential playoff series against the Cavs

The Knicks are in town Friday, and they could be back in May. New York and Cleveland make for an interesting statistical matchup.

www.cleveland.com

Quickley might be the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year. And New York’s best (statistical) bench lineup doesn’t even include him. None of Hart, Miles McBride, Obi Toppin or Isaiah Hartenstein typically start for Tom Thibodeau, but they’ve outscored opponents by 39.4 points per 100 possessions when they’ve played with R.J. Barrett on the second unit (104 possessions played).

That’s a small sample size, but the playoffs are decided by such samples, and all five New York lineups that boast a net rating of +10 or better include two bench players. In other words, the Knicks’ bench is good and reliable.

With Randle out we will see more minutes from their bench players tonight, especially Toppin. Our bench is short-handed with two bench players starting, so guys like Cedi and Rubio and Wade (if he plays) need to step up.

But the Knicks kill teams with their second unit. Cleveland’s have struggled at times.

I'll be interested to see if things go to hell when the bench players get on the floor tonight. I'm sure either Mitchell or Garland will be on the floor at all times and it will be up to them to create good shots for whoever is on the floor.

 

[Pierre Pan]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

“We know it’s a big one, especially for seeding purposes,” Darius Garland said. “We’ll come out aggressive, have that mentality that we always have, knowing that it is a big game for us. We know what we have to do to turn it up. We know what to do going into the game. Just have to lock in mentally and be ready to fight physically.”

I'm somewhat surprised the Cavs consider this game "a big one" because both teams are given a 93-94% chance to hang onto their current seeds so this game almost surely will have no impact on playoff seeding. Also, with Randle and Allen/Okoro out these teams will be significantly different when they meet in the playoffs.

I thought this would be like one of those NFL games where two teams meet in the last week of the regular season knowing they will face each other in the playoffs the following week. Mainly they just want to avoid injuries and keep everything vanilla.

Maybe both teams think they can get a psychological advantage with a win.

“We’re locked in. Definitely something we are all aware of,” Stevens said when asked about New York’s place in the standings. “Locked in on this matchup and we are preparing ourselves like this is the playoffs. We are excited about it.”

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Windhorst claiming Jalen Brunson said the Knicks will, “beat the brakes off the Cavs tonight.”

Thought that was pretty bold.

Both Brunson and Garland are talking like this is a big game.

Garland has played like crap in his two games against the Knicks this year. So have LeVert and Osman. Win or lose I want to see those three break out of it and play well.

Mobley against Mitch Robinson will be a good matchup.

 

[Dr No]

“We know it’s a big one, especially for seeding purposes,” Darius Garland said. “We’ll come out aggressive, have that mentality that we always have, knowing that it is a big game for us. We know what we have to do to turn it up. We know what to do going into the game. Just have to lock in mentally and be ready to fight physically.”

I'm somewhat surprised the Cavs consider this game "a big one" because both teams are given a 93-94% chance to hang onto their current seeds so this game almost surely will have no impact on playoff seeding. Also, with Randle and Allen/Okoro out these teams will be significantly different when they meet in the playoffs.

I thought this would be like one of those NFL games where two teams meet in the last week of the regular season knowing they will face each other in the playoffs the following week. Mainly they just want to avoid injuries and keep everything vanilla.

Maybe both teams think they can get a psychological advantage with a win.

“We’re locked in. Definitely something we are all aware of,” Stevens said when asked about New York’s place in the standings. “Locked in on this matchup and we are preparing ourselves like this is the playoffs. We are excited about it.”

I'll believe this is our attitude when I see it (These guys are pros and know the situation.) But, if it is, why? Your analysis of this of this seems right on to me. It makes no sense to throw everything into a battle when the real battle is clearly a few weeks away.

 

[The Oi]

Charles Oakley claiming on Rome’s show today that he hopes someone on the Cavs gets injured, and that if they don’t he’d be “happy to see to it that it happens.”

Jesus.