Grading the Indians | 2019

[Derek]

Hand eye coordination. Mental.

Juiced ball probably played a part, too. If he hits 24 HR instead of 34, his numbers fall right in line with his final year in Cleveland.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Juiced ball probably played a part, too. If he hits 24 HR instead of 34, his numbers fall right in line with his final year in Cleveland.

But his average was abysmal. So I don't buy it.

 

[Derek]

But his average was abysmal. So I don't buy it.

Abysmal is a stretch. Not that average matters, but it was above the mean.

But, if you take 10 of his HR and turn them into long fly outs, he’s hitting .263 now which is about what he was doing prior to signing with Philly.

 

[Kevalier]

Great stuff as always @Stark. The only thing I took umbrage with was the line about Jose “rebounding a bit” before he broke his hand, as that may be the understatement of the century. Jose was absolutely en fuego in July and August with an OPS over 1.000 in both months. The fact that he ended up with a 3.3 WAR season and a 104 wRC+ after such an abysmal first few months is a testament to how incredible he was beginning in late June.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I still feel like Frankie should bat 2nd or 3rd. I always feel like his at bat is wasted batting leadoff. He just doesnt seem like your prototypical leadoff guy. Be nice if we could get some sort of speedy, contact guy and drop him down

That would mean fewer at-bats for Frankie and more at-bats for whoever you put in the leadoff spot. I could see putting Santana and his .400 OBP in the leadoff spot and have Frankie hit 2nd. He hit .366 with a runner on first, possibly because the first baseman holding the runner on creates a hole on the right side. Sabermetrics says your best hitter should bat second; Trout hits 2nd for the Angels. It would ensure that our two best hitters got the most plate appearances and our best OBP guy leads off the first inning when we have the best chance to get to the opposing pitcher. Ramirez could hit third and Reyes fourth.

 

[Derek]

That would mean fewer at-bats for Frankie and more at-bats for whoever you put in the leadoff spot. I could see putting Santana and his .400 OBP in the leadoff spot and have Frankie hit 2nd. He hit .366 with a runner on first, possibly because the first baseman holding the runner on creates a hole on the right side. Sabermetrics says your best hitter should bat second; Trout hits 2nd for the Angels. It would ensure that our two best hitters got the most plate appearances and our best OBP guy leads off the first inning when we have the best chance to get to the opposing pitcher. Ramirez could hit third and Reyes fourth.

Despite his slow start, I still view Jose as our best hitter. That’s why I’d like Jose 2nd and Lindor 3rd.

The key will be finding a guy who can be at least an above average lead-off hitter. It’d be great if Mercado could step up.

Again though, I urge you not to read into single season splits like “average with a runner on 1st”. It’s just way too small of a sample size to accurately draw any conclusions.

As far as the lineup goes:
1. Mercado (assuming improvements)
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Santana
5. Reyes

That’s a tough as hell 1-5

There is some gray area in lineup construction. Yes, you want a high OBP% guy there, but there’s a tipping point when it comes to slugging. Having guys like Lindor or Santana up there is wasting some of their XBH.

So, typically, you want:
1. Best OBP% guy without too much power
2. Best all-around hitter
3. Second best all-around hitter (maybe, there’s some debate as to whether this guy should hit 4th)

 

[Otsego Mar]

Abysmal is a stretch. Not that average matters, but it was above the mean.

But, if you take 10 of his HR and turn them into long fly outs, he’s hitting .263 now which is about what he was doing prior to signing with Philly.

BA always matters. That's ludicrous.

Get a hit? Higher average.

Saying it doesn't matter, quite frankly, is ridiculous.

 

[Derek]

BA always matters. That's ludicrous.
Get a hit? Higher average.
Saying it doesn't matter, quite frankly, is ridiculous.

It doesn't correlate to offensive success as much as some other stats, which is what I'm saying. It matters some, I guess, just not as much as OBP% or SLG%.

Edited to add:
From 2011-2015

Team Stat	Correlation to R/G
BA%	0.749
OBP%	0.833
SLG%	0.903
OPS	0.936

 

[MadThinker88]

Obviously it will matter who fills out the rest of the lineup, but I struggle with the idea of JRam/ Lindor/ Santana hitting back-to-back-to-back (in any order).
While it doesn't matter to these 3 guys if the pitcher is right-handed or left-handed (each is effective vs both sides), depending on who else is in the lineup & in what order, the lineup might be in a vulnerable spot to combat relief pitchers that are much better vs 1 side of the plate or the other.

Splitting up these 3 main cogs is not a method to weaken them. Its to strengthen the entire order...

 

[Derek]

Obviously it will matter who fills out the rest of the lineup, but I struggle with the idea of JRam/ Lindor/ Santana hitting back-to-back-to-back (in any order).
While it doesn't matter to these 3 guys if the pitcher is right-handed or left-handed (each is effective vs both sides), depending on who else is in the lineup & in what order, the lineup might be in a vulnerable spot to combat relief pitchers that are much better vs 1 side of the plate or the other.

Splitting up these 3 main cogs is not a method to weaken them. Its to strengthen the entire order...

Not that I think it matters a whole bunch. I mean, we’re all just nit-picking. However, I’d rather have my offense come in bunches than spread my guys out.

 

[MadThinker88]

Not that I think it matters a whole bunch. I mean, we’re all just nit-picking. However, I’d rather have my offense come in bunches than spread my guys out.

Wasn't part of the issue with the 2019 offense (especially early in the year ) it seemed only 2 or 3 guys "were on" the rest was a stretch of waste land that took up 2 innings of at bats to get thru (as specialists could come in and go for multiple batters & neutralize the bats)???

 

[Derek]

Wasn't part of the issue with the 2019 offense (especially early in the year ) it seemed only 2 or 3 guys "were on" the rest was a stretch of waste land that took up 2 innings of at bats to get thru (as specialists could come in and go for multiple batters & neutralize the bats)???

I think the real issue was that we only had two guys that could hit at an above-average rate early in the season, and one of them missed a month. Specialists could neutralize us for multiple hitters because they weren't good hitters.

Two guys that were huge for us most of the year were Naquin and Perez, both of whom spent the entire season at the bottom of the line-up. I don't think the issue was that our bats were too bunched up. If anything, it might have been the opposite.

Plus, I'm hopeful that our other guys won't be as bad this year. I feel confident that Perez will at least continue to be average offensively (for a catcher), and that whatever platoon Luplow is involved in will also be average, if not better, at the plate. That's already 7 deep.