Hot Garbage and Pyrite

[CATS44]

I understand that I am a minority of one on here...lol.

I dont want anymore prospects. We don't get a trophy for having the most prospects. We already have more prospects than we can ever use.

The Yankees and Dodgers and other big market clubs have money. It would be stupid if they didn't spend money to acquire big name, big contract MLB players. IMO its kinda stupid not to use our prospects to acquire good, young MLB players.

Our team is young and under control for at least three years for the most part. Under normal circumstances a well heeled team would spend money to augment this core lineup. We should do the same, using our prospects.

I really like what we have done over the last two years in acquiring young talent. But we still have a hot mess at first base and/or we need another quality OF.

Our projected fWAR at 1B is .9, the worst in the division.

In CF its .9. Only KC is worse.

In RF its .7. Point freaking SEVEN. Only Detroit is worse.

We have the grand total of two players in the first base and outfield mix that have a projected plus offensive WAR...Rosario and Naylor.

We have the wherewithal to make it better, and if we don't use it, we lose it anyway.

 

[CATS44]

I did some research on top prospects in 2016...five years ago. Since our present prospects generally rank 40th at the best, I looked at position players ranked 40 or higher.

Name...fWAR first three years after that ranking or first three years in MLB...total thru 2020.

Mondesi.....2.0...5.8.
Taylor..........0.1...3.8
Pompey......0.3...0.2
Alfaro..........3.2...4.2
Meadows....0.1...4.0
Renfroe.......2.4...3.8
Schwarber...3.5...9.6
DJ Peterson....never made it.
Hedges .......2.0....5.6
Frazier..........-0.4...2.0
Mazara.........1.2...1.9
Franco...........3.3...4.8
Almora..........2.8...2.1
Dahl...............3.7...2.9
Justin Oconnor....never made it.
Turner...........6.1...17.1
Plawecki......1.6....2.2
McGuire........0.4...0.9
Robertson....2.5...2.5
Judge..........13.2...18.7
Realmuto.....2.2.....19.0

That was the list 40 thru 70. Most of these prospects were MLB ready. A few had already had cups of coffee, which none of our prospects, outside of Gimenez has had.

Only six averaged at least 1 fWAR over there first three years of seeing MLB pitching. Only two were even average (1.9 fWAR per season.) Only Judge made an impact over his first three years.

Only three...Judge, Turner, and Realmuto have made a major impact over the last five years. Some may make an impact down the road.

But the large majority...at least 15 out of 21 will be a failure in terms of production by the time their control is over.

My focus is always three years, because beyond that is impossible to make even a WAG. Eighteen out if 21 didn't even provide average production thru the first three years they appeared in MLB or the first three years after their ranking.

And yet, these prospects in todays market would have been the highest valued assets in baseball. I'm certainly no whiz in investing, but I've done OK. As an analogy, trading prospects for actual productive MLB players is like spending 30 cents on the dollar.

I like that.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Chang, Jones, Clement, Arias, and Gimenez are already on the 40 man.

According to Roster Resource, all the others are Rule Five eligible this coming off season.

Unless we want to get backed into a corner and lose our leverage, some of these kids have to be traded fairly soon.

Most of these kids are not Tom, but real prospects. There are several top prospects lists on the Minor League thread. Pick whichever one you like best.

Although nobody would like to see it, it would be better to overpay in prospects for a major upgrade to our lineup...that is under control for years...than to just lose them to Rule Five.

Sometime soon we need to make a four for one trade.

A four for one trade? Well, there's another option which is to jettison about eight guys off the current roster by November. Start with Cesar Hernandez and Eddie Rosario, who are on one-year deals, although Hernandez has an option for next year. I would add Cam Hill, Adam Plutko, either Hedges or Beau Taylor (we don't need both with Naylor moving up), Chang, Jake Bauers, and Bradley Zimmer. That's eight spots to add prospects that need to be protected. There are probably others that will be expendable after this season.

The other question is how many of these guys would actually be selected given they have to be kept on the 25-man roster. Some of them are a couple of years away from playing major league ball, right?

 

[petes999]

Okay CATS, I'll play devils advocate even though I tend to agree with you that we have too many prospects and not enough WAR generating talent. I for one, thought the Clevenger and Bauer trade went too far on getting okay players and not enough Star type players (could only land ex-Top 100 prospects in Allen, Quantrill and Naylor). I and MadThinker were some of the first to warn about the upcoming Rule 5 crunch. So should we now trade prospects for people like Santander?

The main thing left out of your analysis ... is salary. In constructing a line-up, especially for smaller markets, the FanGraph or BaseballTradeValues is assuming that a 5 WAR vet is probably making $20+ million at least. Thus, in a trade, a team may only get 3 WAR estimated value from a trade due to difference in salary ($7-9 million per WAR is going rate, give or take). And, you are right, most prospects will have 0 WAR or negative (flame out rate is high) thus the 3 to 1 type trades. And, you are right that the first 2-3 year WAR can be astronomically low due to a player needing that first 500 at bats to settle in (and the constant call-ups to just fill in on the bench for a year or two).

However, the trade value to get Santander now is going to cost you as Baltimore has already paid their price of using him for his first 3+ years to break him in. Saw on BaseballTradeValue that a trade basically had Cantillo, Hankins and Rosario plus some more for him (your 4 to 1). For this year, I would agree with you that is a great trade (yet kind of mute with Rosario addition). However, for me, that is wasted prospect depth as we are going to be mediocre with or without Santander (FanGraph est 1.9 WAR - and 2 Wins won't get us a WC in 4-team format). Also, you could say Santander for Johnson, Espino and Rosario. But, I am growing on Rosario and I think it will cost you more that what BTV says.

The problem though occurs in 2022/23/24 when he, Reyes and Beiber --- then Plesac, Civale, Quant in 23 are arbitration eligible. In 2022, you lose Rosario 8 million but add $10+ million for Bieber, $5+ million for Reyes and Santander each along with increases in Hedges, Perez, Ramirez, Luplow, etc. (so maybe $75 mill range). Then in 2023, salaries grow if Quant and Plesac are as good as we think and if so they will be $7 million each with $15 for Bieber so $90 mill range (assuming a catcher salary comes off). And, in 2024, we are right back where we were last 2 years with $100+ million payroll.

You roster crunch issue is why I wanted more than the 6-1/4-1 type trades that we got for Clevinger and Bauer (to get more sure things to plug into our roster without the need to trade for arb eligible players). However, the trade market the way it is, those top prospects are probably overvalued as you said and reason teams are not trading those players, including Santander (without kings ransom). Note, Snell actually got 15% premium back based on current figures (on BTV) - even Lindor/Cookie had us a bit ahead even with salary issues. Even Josh Bell got more mediocre prospect talent than what BTV estimated. This is probably why Indians are not trading Ramirez. He is the one chip that supposedly can (should) give you 2 Top 100 talents and the supposed trade with the Braves of De La Cruz, Waters, Langeliers and Riley was supposedly offered up by the Indians (thus Braves didn't accept). This trade even for me looked lite. To get a top prospect or a pre-arb quality player (who will have low salaries) will cost you $$$ in prospect talent.

Thus, I would hold off trades for now. I agree with Wham, this 2021 Rule 5 will be okay ... we can dump a lot of ifffy type players and still add 8-9 players. Note, only a couple OF/IF prospects have been taken in the last few Rule 5s (mostly pitchers - with high velocity). This can be handled in 2021 without trades. Come Nov 2022, it maybe a different story but then we are buying low cost pre-arb players, as Bieber, Plesac, Reyes and Quant will be adding to our payroll via Arb-1 and Arb-2 status. Chris maybe seeing that payroll crunch coming in 2 years again and thus hesitant on Santander when he could buy Rosario this year for $8 mill and get similar production (Rosario is 1.6 War and Santander is 1.9 War per FG).

 

[CATS44]

Wham...

The problem with your list is two fold.

First, you are suggesting eliminating Hernandez and E Rosario, two of our best four regulars, and replacing them with unproven rookies. We could have done that this year.

Second, the 40 man would then have a glut of very young MIFs that are simply two young to add anything to the active roster. It would be impossible to put together a competitive roster if half the position half of the 40 man was filled with MIFs, mostly too young to play.

I'd like somebody to put together a contending 40 man for next year that includes...

Jones
Clement
Gimenez
Rosario
Freeman
Arias
Miller
Rocchio
Bracho
Valera
Palacio
JRam
Naylor
Reyes
Johnson
Mercado
Bradley
Bauers
Roberto
Hedges
Luplow

Right off the bat, one of those have to go. Another one will have to go when the inevitable injury to a catcher happens, and we need to add a backup.

At least four of them will not be close to MLB ready. Nine of them are duplicates for two MIF positions, three if you count util.

At best our OF would consist of Mercado, Naylor/Bauers, Luplow, Johnson, Jones. We would be expecting that two of Naylor/Bauers/Bradley become impact players, or the OF looks even worse.

That is nowhere close to a contending roster, unless you expect three or four very young players to become instant producers.

Every FA we might bring in would mean losing another youngster.

Its easy to get rid of Zimmer, Chang, ERosario, Hernandez by natural progression. Its not that hard to discard Bauers and maybe Bradley. But we start cutting to the quick after that. If you dont think much of Clement or Palacio, that's okay. But the point is by the time we get past Bauers and Bradley, we are talking about value....and we will have to rid ourselves of a lot more than Clement and Palacio. Why not trade them before we have our backs to the wall and lose any leverage?

Pete...

I have no interest in Santander, but some do.

But lets look at this from another direction. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight...

What of our prospects would you being willing to give up for Carlos Santana after his third year of MLB?

Carlos had shown that he couldn't pitch and looked really bad at first. He had put up a total 1.9 fWAR, but had provided zero WAR over 600 PAs in the third year.

How about Jose? He put up 1.7 fWAR in his first three years, and looked like a decent util that was a liability at SS. (I thought he should get a look in center)

How about Brantley? After three part time years in MLB he had put up 0.2 fWAR, but had settled in as a regular. In 214 games he had hit 10 HR, and been less than average in CF. Though many will say they were on board with Brantley, the over whelming concensus was that he was a weak hitting, slow running, corner outfielder that wasn't very good defensively. I've probably had more discussions about young Brantley than on any other player.

Personally, I would trade the farm to get those three youngsters now. Fortunately, our FO saw their value or other orgs did not.

I should add that all three had plus plus intangibles.

This is why I am thrilled with the acquisitions we have made over the last few years...and that includes A Rosario. All of them... Bauers, Luplow, Reyes, Naylor, Gimenez, Rosario, Hedges, Allen, and Quantrill won't work out. But if just three of them turn into some type of Santana-Brantley-JRam, we've really got something.

And I want more of them...and I'm willing to pay for them in prospects.

 

[daddywags]

Wham...

The problem with your list is two fold.

First, you are suggesting eliminating Hernandez and E Rosario, two of our best four regulars, and replacing them with unproven rookies. We could have done that this year.

Second, the 40 man would then have a glut of very young MIFs that are simply two young to add anything to the active roster. It would be impossible to put together a competitive roster if half the position half of the 40 man was filled with MIFs, mostly too young to play.

I'd like somebody to put together a contending 40 man for next year that includes...

Jones
Clement
Gimenez
Rosario
Freeman
Arias
Miller
Rocchio
Bracho
Valera
Palacio
JRam
Naylor
Reyes
Johnson
Mercado
Bradley
Bauers
Roberto
Hedges
Luplow

Right off the bat, one of those have to go. Another one will have to go when the inevitable injury to a catcher happens, and we need to add a backup.

At least four of them will not be close to MLB ready. Nine of them are duplicates for two MIF positions, three if you count util.

At best our OF would consist of Mercado, Naylor/Bauers, Luplow, Johnson, Jones. We would be expecting that two of Naylor/Bauers/Bradley become impact players, or the OF looks even worse.

That is nowhere close to a contending roster, unless you expect three or four very young players to become instant producers.

Every FA we might bring in would mean losing another youngster.

Its easy to get rid of Zimmer, Chang, ERosario, Hernandez by natural progression. Its not that hard to discard Bauers and maybe Bradley. But we start cutting to the quick after that. If you dont think much of Clement or Palacio, that's okay. But the point is by the time we get past Bauers and Bradley, we are talking about value....and we will have to rid ourselves of a lot more than Clement and Palacio. Why not trade them before we have our backs to the wall and lose any leverage?

Pete...

I have no interest in Santander, but some do.

But lets look at this from another direction. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight...

What of our prospects would you being willing to give up for Carlos Santana after his third year of MLB?

Carlos had shown that he couldn't pitch and looked really bad at first. He had put up a total 1.9 fWAR, but had provided zero WAR over 600 PAs in the third year.

How about Jose? He put up 1.7 fWAR in his first three years, and looked like a decent util that was a liability at SS. (I thought he should get a look in center)

How about Brantley? After three part time years in MLB he had put up 0.2 fWAR, but had settled in as a regular. In 214 games he had hit 10 HR, and been less than average in CF. Though many will say they were on board with Brantley, the over whelming concensus was that he was a weak hitting, slow running, corner outfielder that wasn't very good defensively. I've probably had more discussions about young Brantley than on any other player.

Personally, I would trade the farm to get those three youngsters now. Fortunately, our FO saw their value or other orgs did not.

I should add that all three had plus plus intangibles.

This is why I am thrilled with the acquisitions we have made over the last few years...and that includes A Rosario. All of them... Bauers, Luplow, Reyes, Naylor, Gimenez, Rosario, Hedges, Allen, and Quantrill won't work out. But if just three of them turn into some type of Santana-Brantley-JRam, we've really got something.

And I want more of them...and I'm willing to pay for them in prospects.

This highlights the harm caused by missing an entire season of minor league baseball. By November 2021 we should have a much better idea about which of these younger guys are worth rostering. We'd have a better idea right now but for Covid. As for the list, I can say, for me, Clement, Bauers, and one or both of Hedges/Perez could be gone today and I wouldn't be bothered. Johnson, Bradley and Mercado are 50-50 at best IMO. In short, it will work itself out.

 

[CATS44]

This highlights the harm caused by missing an entire season of minor league baseball. By November 2021 we should have a much better idea about which of these younger guys are worth rostering. We'd have a better idea right now but for Covid. As for the list, I can say, for me, Clement, Bauers, and one or both of Hedges/Perez could be gone today and I wouldn't be bothered. Johnson, Bradley and Mercado are 50-50 at best IMO. In short, it will work itself out.

I agree with this.

But roster wise, we need to have two catchers on the 40 man, and another will have to be added when one of them gets hurt.

 

[petes999]

CATS -- I think that we have 2 issues that are getting glossed over

1) Are the Indians for playoff purposes -- no hope, hope if they do 8 teams again, fighting for a 1-2 team WC slot or going for WS crown by winning our division.

2) Are teams willing to trade away a 3-year Jose, Santana or Bieber type.

For myself, we are a potential 5-team WC contender (if we buy at deadline and assuming playoff format changes). Right now, there is no indication that players' union will agree to expand the playoffs. So, we are a mid-level team (8th seed or so in 15-team AL) with little hope to jump all the way up to a 4/5th seed ( WC playin slot). To be a 1 or 2 seed WC playin team that will take an 8 WAR increase to compete with Twins, WS and BJs -- from 32.3 to 40-42 range per FanGraph, let alone have a chance at WS against the likes of Dodgers/Padres/Yankees/Twins/BJs. For me, the best chance at this was to keep Lindor and Cookie and hoped they had career high type WAR (and trade Freeman/Valera for OF/1B). Our payroll dictated something else.

That means we need to trade for 2 Ramirez types (with super low salaries) to replace our 1 WAR -- OF and 1B and with something similar to his 3 years remaining on his contract (your 3 year players with reasonable cost controls) -- that means trading for each 4-5 WAR player requires giving up a Plesac and McK (which guts your pitching) or trading Freeman, Valera, Rocchio and Arias again for each (kind of what we want from the Braves for Ramirez). It takes a lot of ML talent which we don't have as we don't have much 50+ FV talent (like a Waters, Pache or others) to match the value that a team would want back.

If you do not trade the whole upper farm system, you are stuck signing a Rosario or trading for a Santander which doesn't move the needle much (just enough at deadline to jump a team or two, if you are lucky).

And are teams willing to trade these types of players? Only a few teams who are looking to tank to rebuild. And, then they only usually have 1 or 2 such players max which the other 20 teams are also looking to trade for (thus increasing the bidding). Look at the history of trades, how many teams trade this valuable asset (3-year player who has broken through)? This year Snell and Musgrove (who was really only a 3 WAR player with 2 years left). And, Snell wasn't in our payroll restrictions anyways. It's getting lucky at best.

I like your idea in theory but it takes a whole lot and historically it usually doesn't happen. Our best bet is have our younger talent develop more this year and see if a few jump up into that coveted 50+ FV range where we can actually trade them for something. Otherwise, you are trading away assets for marginal talent that will just keep us on the outside of the playoffs, looking in. Unfortunately, that means wasting another year of Ramirez and Bieber and getting little in return (playoff wise) -- which is why I wanted to trade Ramirez for a real OF/3B prospect -- hoping Jones and return are ready to compete in mid-to late 2022 (where hopefully playoffs are expanded and once in and talent breaks in during 2022 ... we have a shot).

 

[petes999]

One last point, I think we are holding off all trades till we see if there are 2 WC playin, 4 WC (7 team) proposed but rejected or 5 WC from last year. Ramirez/Bieber gets us 8th seed, we need to buy at deadline for 7 team proposal where your trade idea CATS works but doubt we even have a shot at 5 team current design without selling the farm.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm fine with starting the season with Rosario in left, Mercado/Johnson in center, and Luplow in right. Time to find out once and for all if Luplow can be an everyday player. Josh Naylor goes to first base.

If we're still contending in July while having a problem in the outfield then I can see putting together a package of prospects for a decent bat.

Next year we either re-sign Rosario or bring in Nolan Jones for left field. Another option would be if either Bobby Bradley or Jake Bauers comes back from the dead in which case Naylor can be moved to left.

This year will be more about setting up for the future than trying to get to the World Series or even make the playoffs and get blown out in three games like last year. What did that accomplish?

In general, however, we are overloaded with middle infielders and if a trade presents itself where we can let a couple go for a Jesus Aguilar or somebody like that then I'm all for it. I just don't think those guys have much value. What teams want are starting pitchers and guys who hit the long ball.

I think this year is the last chance for guys like Zimmer, Bauers, Chang, and Bradley, who have teased us for some time but never broken through. I won't be surprised if they all go the way of Naquin and DeShields after this season.

 

[CDAV45]

Tito specifically said that Naylor will not be playing 1B and will be fighting for an OF spot. It will either be Bauers or Bradley at 1B. If Naylor can win an OF corner spot over Johnson then there is no reason to even have Luplow on the roster.

So here we are again with a plethora of OF options and none of them outside of Rosario are proven.

Instead of trading for Aguilar they could sign CJ Cron to a cheap 1 or 2 yr deal with incentives. I'd about bet he could be signed for less than the $4M that Aguilar is making.

I'd like to see a hitter like Santander brought in for RF, but if that is done then they might as well trade Naylor, Johnson, and Luplow. They're gonna see if a couple of these guys can figure it out. If they do then great, but if they don't it will be too bad because this team is very close to being a contender and a hitter like Santander could be the difference.

 

[Gson]

Tito specifically said that Naylor will not be playing 1B and will be fighting for an OF spot. It will either be Bauers or Bradley at 1B. If Naylor can win an OF corner spot over Johnson then there is no reason to even have Luplow on the roster.

So here we are again with a plethora of OF options and none of them outside of Rosario are proven.

Instead of trading for Aguilar they could sign CJ Cron to a cheap 1 or 2 yr deal with incentives. I'd about bet he could be signed for less than the $4M that Aguilar is making.

I'd like to see a hitter like Santander brought in for RF, but if that is done then they might as well trade Naylor, Johnson, and Luplow. They're gonna see if a couple of these guys can figure it out. If they do then great, but if they don't it will be too bad because this team is very close to being a contender and a hitter like Santander could be the difference.

I like the idea of Santander...

or Benintendi..

or Haniger..

or.. several other guys who are on teams that are in serious rebuild mode and need "prospects" to help with their rebuild.. Cincinnati might be in the same spot w/r to making guys available who would otherwise be used to compete..

We'll see in the next 8 days and a wake up..

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Tito specifically said that Naylor will not be playing 1B and will be fighting for an OF spot. It will either be Bauers or Bradley at 1B.

When did he say Naylor will not be playing 1B? I googled it and can't find any quotes to that effect.

Bauers and Bradley can't hit enough to play first base. As historically bad as our outfield was last year Bauers didn't get a single at-bat even though he was within easy driving distance and working out daily.

They're gonna see if a couple of these guys can figure it out.

I agree, but I think those guys will be Mercado, Luplow, and Johnson. Bauers and Bradley will get another shot at AAA if they have a season. I could be wrong but I think our outfield of the next couple of years will be Rosario, Mercado, Luplow, Johnson, and Nolan Jones with Naylor at first base.

Jones is awful against lefties so a Luplow/Jones platoon makes sense in right. That leaves Mercado and Johnson competing or platooning in center and Rosario in left.

 

[Gson]

When did he say Naylor will not be playing 1B? I googled it and can't find any quotes to that effect.

Bauers and Bradley can't hit enough to play first base. As historically bad as our outfield was last year Bauers didn't get a single at-bat even though he was within easy driving distance and working out daily.

They're gonna see if a couple of these guys can figure it out.

I agree, but I think those guys will be Mercado, Luplow, and Johnson. Bauers and Bradley will get another shot at AAA if they have a season. I could be wrong but I think our outfield of the next couple of years will be Rosario, Mercado, Luplow, Johnson, and Nolan Jones with Naylor at first base.

Jones is awful against lefties so a Luplow/Jones platoon makes sense in right. That leaves Mercado and Johnson competing or platooning in center and Rosario in left.

I could be wrong about this.. but by exclusion.. that is, not mentioning Naylor as a 1B candidate..and emphasizing Bauers and Bradley as in a fight for that spot.. it could be inferred?..

maybe?..

 

[CDAV45]

When did he say Naylor will not be playing 1B? I googled it and can't find any quotes to that effect.

Bauers and Bradley can't hit enough to play first base. As historically bad as our outfield was last year Bauers didn't get a single at-bat even though he was within easy driving distance and working out daily.

They're gonna see if a couple of these guys can figure it out.

I agree, but I think those guys will be Mercado, Luplow, and Johnson. Bauers and Bradley will get another shot at AAA if they have a season. I could be wrong but I think our outfield of the next couple of years will be Rosario, Mercado, Luplow, Johnson, and Nolan Jones with Naylor at first base.

Jones is awful against lefties so a Luplow/Jones platoon makes sense in right. That leaves Mercado and Johnson competing or platooning in center and Rosario in left.

Just watched him say it in a recent Tribe Report podcast with Jensen and Al. They basically asked if Naylor was considered for 1B and he said that he would be in the OF mix and that 1B was going to be Bauers or Bradley.

What makes you think that Naylor will hit enough to play 1B?

It was a 60 game season last year and Bauers spent the entire time there. I don't recall who said it, but one of Tito, CA, or MC mentioned that they were pleased with Bauers adjustments and that he looked good.