I like Gson's description of the Pirates return for Musgrove as hot garbage. I also like the Old West term for pyrite as Fool's Gold....shiny objects with little value. Or the beads that Native Americans took for Manhattan.
Anyway, that is exactly what many baseball orgs now value...fool's gold in the form of super young prospects, who have long odds against them when it comes to eventually becoming a successful MLB player.
The studies I have seen tell much the same story...whether you start from the point of draft position or Top Prospect Rankings. Prospects, even the upper crust, are unlikely to work out.
A general study indicates that 70% of top 100 prospects fail at the MLB level, defined by averaging less than 1.5 WAR over a six year period in MLB. Pitchers fail at a higher rate, and obviously, top 10s work out better than those ranked in the 90s.
But my focus today is on draft picks. In an eleven year study...2000 thru 2010...draft picks aren't exactly gold mines.
The odds of a first rounder getting to the Bigs is between 66% and 75%. The odds of a second rounder is about 50%, and the odds drop precipitously from there. But none of this means they are successful.
When looking at just success rates, prospects drafted in the top 15 of the first round fail at a 66% rate. In the bottom 15 the failure rate is over 80%.
Failure rates rise exponentially after the first 30 picks. That puts a different light on supplemental picks.
Now, the point is that teams appear to be valuing 'lottery' picks that are neither first round picks or top 100s, which are the elite of a group of inside straights.
To be honest, many lottery picks are international signings, which I've seen no studies of.
Buying lottery tickets is generally a bad idea, unless, of course, you hit a big one. But a lot of foolish folks buy them by the bucket full, instead of investing in something far more intelligent, like a 401k.
The Padres are making a living by selling lottery tickets to GMs with visions of a young Frankie Lindor, disguised as Erik Gonzalez.
The Indians have made a living by investing in the mutual fund that nobody seems to be interested in, and are willing to part with....young MLB or MLB ready talent with pedigree, maybe not with a lot of production yet, but with better odds than the normal top draft pick or top 100 prospect, because they've already got there, which is a necessary step before becoming successful.
Anyway, that is exactly what many baseball orgs now value...fool's gold in the form of super young prospects, who have long odds against them when it comes to eventually becoming a successful MLB player.
The studies I have seen tell much the same story...whether you start from the point of draft position or Top Prospect Rankings. Prospects, even the upper crust, are unlikely to work out.
A general study indicates that 70% of top 100 prospects fail at the MLB level, defined by averaging less than 1.5 WAR over a six year period in MLB. Pitchers fail at a higher rate, and obviously, top 10s work out better than those ranked in the 90s.
But my focus today is on draft picks. In an eleven year study...2000 thru 2010...draft picks aren't exactly gold mines.
The odds of a first rounder getting to the Bigs is between 66% and 75%. The odds of a second rounder is about 50%, and the odds drop precipitously from there. But none of this means they are successful.
When looking at just success rates, prospects drafted in the top 15 of the first round fail at a 66% rate. In the bottom 15 the failure rate is over 80%.
Failure rates rise exponentially after the first 30 picks. That puts a different light on supplemental picks.
Now, the point is that teams appear to be valuing 'lottery' picks that are neither first round picks or top 100s, which are the elite of a group of inside straights.
To be honest, many lottery picks are international signings, which I've seen no studies of.
Buying lottery tickets is generally a bad idea, unless, of course, you hit a big one. But a lot of foolish folks buy them by the bucket full, instead of investing in something far more intelligent, like a 401k.
The Padres are making a living by selling lottery tickets to GMs with visions of a young Frankie Lindor, disguised as Erik Gonzalez.
The Indians have made a living by investing in the mutual fund that nobody seems to be interested in, and are willing to part with....young MLB or MLB ready talent with pedigree, maybe not with a lot of production yet, but with better odds than the normal top draft pick or top 100 prospect, because they've already got there, which is a necessary step before becoming successful.