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I decided to look at some numbers to get an idea of where the Guardians were strong and weak offensively last year and also where they might improve. The numbers, which I got from Fangraphs and Statcast, were revealing if you’re into that sort of thing.
Overall the G's were 16th of 30 teams in runs. Since there’s a lot more inter-league play now I decided to use MLB rankings instead of just AL rankings. So the G’s were average at scoring runs.
As we know, the G’s scored their runs by getting on base (12th in OBP) and then running like hell (3rd in stolen bases and tied for 1st in speed). They helped things along by ranking 3rd in sacrifice bunts, 3rd in sacrifice flies, and 2nd in “clutch” hitting, defined loosely as hitting in high leverage situations. I’m sure it’s a reflection of the ability to get hits late in close games.
The Guardians put the bat on the ball like nobody else; they led the majors in fewest strikeouts and were also 1st in both zone contact and out-of-zone contact. Despite putting all those balls in play and having elite speed they were only 12th in on-base percentage and 13th in BABIP. There were two reasons; they didn’t walk much and they didn’t hit balls very hard.
Walks first. The G’s ranked 28th in walk percentage. I think there were two main reasons. One, they were 29th in home run percentage and 28th in isolated power, so pitchers just weren’t afraid of them. Two, they swung at a lot of bad pitches, which is a great way not to get walked.
The Guardians were absolutely awful, in my opinion, in their swing/no swing decisions. They ranked 25th in chase percentage; only five teams chased more bad pitches. The result was fewer walks, more batters behind in the count rather than ahead, and more weakly hit outs.
The Guardians were the best at making contact when they chased pitches out of the zone, contacting the ball nearly 65% of their swings. That’s good and bad. It’s good if there are two strikes and you foul it off, avoiding strike three. It’s bad if you hit a weak ball in play that gets you out.
I believe one reason the Guardians ranked so low in home runs, ISO, slugging percentage (21st), and hard hit percentage (last) was because they chased pitches out of the zone and popped them up or hit weak ground balls.
Chasing pitches out of the zone leads to easy outs, strikeouts, getting behind in the count, and fewer walks. The Guardians were sixth worst in this category last season. If there’s one thing they could do to improve the offense it’s better plate discipline.
But that’s only half of it. They also looked at too many good pitches. Their zone swing percentage ranked 26th - they took a lot of strikes. Their “meatball” swing percentage was 30th and last, meaning they took more pitches right down the middle than any other team. Their first pitch swing percentage ranked 29th - they were the second least aggressive team on first pitches. You could argue whether that’s good or bad, but I recall tons of at-bats where a Guardian looked at strike one and, now down in the count, chased a bad pitch for strike two. Sometimes the best pitch you’re going to get is the first one.
In addition to chasing fewer bad pitches I’d like to see the Guardians get more aggressive on pitches in the center of the zone. They’re taking more of them than any team, which leads to their extremely low rankings in home runs (29th), barrel percentage (30th), hard hit percentage (30th), and average exit velocity (tied for 29th). The Guardians were wimps at the plate last year and they didn’t walk much, either. They managed to be average offensively due to leading the majors in infield hits, stolen bases, overall speed on the bases, clutch hitting, and sacrifice flies.
Another problem was the lack of pull hitting. Balls that are pulled are more likely to be extra base hits due to higher bat speed. The G’s ranked 26th in pull percentage and 5th in both center and opposite field percentage. They could use more balance. I’m as big a fan of going oppo as anybody, but with the elimination of the shift it’s time to get back to pulling the ball more, even if it leads to more strikeouts.
Fangraphs ranked the Guardians with the 4th highest percentage of soft hit balls, the 3rd most medium hit balls, and the 29th most hard hit balls. That’s obviously not what we want, in fact, it’s the opposite. The way to reverse those numbers is more swings at meatballs and fewer swings at out of zone pitches.
I noticed in September Myles Straw was swinging earlier in the count and pulling the ball more. His numbers surged. More than any player Straw epitomized the 2022 Guardians; he took tons of good pitches, constantly falling behind in the count, then tried to punch the ball to right field in hopes of finding a hole. Pitchers knew he was taking and easily got ahead, then finished him off with a fly ball to right. But when he started attacking the first good pitch he saw the worm turned.
Josh Bell recently said hitters were giving up parts of the strike zone last year because if they swung at those pitches the result would be a ground ball into the shift. He said this year with no shift he will be attacking those pitches. If hitters are more inclined to pull the ball this year due to no more shifting we should see more hard hit balls and extra base hits.
The other thing the Guardians need to improve on is hitting fastballs. In terms of weighted runs above average they ranked 29th against fastballs last year, 21st against curves, 13th against sliders, 16th against cutters, and 3rd against changeups. I think they were taught to wait as long as possible on pitches which hurt them on fastballs, helped them on changeups, and resulted in all those weakly hit balls to the opposite field, which at best end up being singles (unless you’re Josh Naylor or Oscar Gonzalez).
Opposing pitchers knew all about that; Guardians hitters ranked 3rd in percentage of fastballs faced and 28th in percentage of changeups. The word got out - don’t throw the Guardians too many changeups, better to overpower them with fastballs. Attack the zone early, get strike one, and then make them chase.
My advice for the Guardians this year is to sit on fastballs early in the count and attack them. If you get behind in the count expect to be teased and don’t chase, even if it means taking an occasional called strike three. When you have the 6th most swings outside the zone and the 28th most walks, something is very wrong. When you let more “meatballs” go by than any other team and are last in hard hit percentage, something is very wrong.
They need a different approach, even if it means no longer being the team that strikes out the least.
Overall the G's were 16th of 30 teams in runs. Since there’s a lot more inter-league play now I decided to use MLB rankings instead of just AL rankings. So the G’s were average at scoring runs.
As we know, the G’s scored their runs by getting on base (12th in OBP) and then running like hell (3rd in stolen bases and tied for 1st in speed). They helped things along by ranking 3rd in sacrifice bunts, 3rd in sacrifice flies, and 2nd in “clutch” hitting, defined loosely as hitting in high leverage situations. I’m sure it’s a reflection of the ability to get hits late in close games.
The Guardians put the bat on the ball like nobody else; they led the majors in fewest strikeouts and were also 1st in both zone contact and out-of-zone contact. Despite putting all those balls in play and having elite speed they were only 12th in on-base percentage and 13th in BABIP. There were two reasons; they didn’t walk much and they didn’t hit balls very hard.
Walks first. The G’s ranked 28th in walk percentage. I think there were two main reasons. One, they were 29th in home run percentage and 28th in isolated power, so pitchers just weren’t afraid of them. Two, they swung at a lot of bad pitches, which is a great way not to get walked.
The Guardians were absolutely awful, in my opinion, in their swing/no swing decisions. They ranked 25th in chase percentage; only five teams chased more bad pitches. The result was fewer walks, more batters behind in the count rather than ahead, and more weakly hit outs.
The Guardians were the best at making contact when they chased pitches out of the zone, contacting the ball nearly 65% of their swings. That’s good and bad. It’s good if there are two strikes and you foul it off, avoiding strike three. It’s bad if you hit a weak ball in play that gets you out.
I believe one reason the Guardians ranked so low in home runs, ISO, slugging percentage (21st), and hard hit percentage (last) was because they chased pitches out of the zone and popped them up or hit weak ground balls.
Chasing pitches out of the zone leads to easy outs, strikeouts, getting behind in the count, and fewer walks. The Guardians were sixth worst in this category last season. If there’s one thing they could do to improve the offense it’s better plate discipline.
But that’s only half of it. They also looked at too many good pitches. Their zone swing percentage ranked 26th - they took a lot of strikes. Their “meatball” swing percentage was 30th and last, meaning they took more pitches right down the middle than any other team. Their first pitch swing percentage ranked 29th - they were the second least aggressive team on first pitches. You could argue whether that’s good or bad, but I recall tons of at-bats where a Guardian looked at strike one and, now down in the count, chased a bad pitch for strike two. Sometimes the best pitch you’re going to get is the first one.
In addition to chasing fewer bad pitches I’d like to see the Guardians get more aggressive on pitches in the center of the zone. They’re taking more of them than any team, which leads to their extremely low rankings in home runs (29th), barrel percentage (30th), hard hit percentage (30th), and average exit velocity (tied for 29th). The Guardians were wimps at the plate last year and they didn’t walk much, either. They managed to be average offensively due to leading the majors in infield hits, stolen bases, overall speed on the bases, clutch hitting, and sacrifice flies.
Another problem was the lack of pull hitting. Balls that are pulled are more likely to be extra base hits due to higher bat speed. The G’s ranked 26th in pull percentage and 5th in both center and opposite field percentage. They could use more balance. I’m as big a fan of going oppo as anybody, but with the elimination of the shift it’s time to get back to pulling the ball more, even if it leads to more strikeouts.
Fangraphs ranked the Guardians with the 4th highest percentage of soft hit balls, the 3rd most medium hit balls, and the 29th most hard hit balls. That’s obviously not what we want, in fact, it’s the opposite. The way to reverse those numbers is more swings at meatballs and fewer swings at out of zone pitches.
I noticed in September Myles Straw was swinging earlier in the count and pulling the ball more. His numbers surged. More than any player Straw epitomized the 2022 Guardians; he took tons of good pitches, constantly falling behind in the count, then tried to punch the ball to right field in hopes of finding a hole. Pitchers knew he was taking and easily got ahead, then finished him off with a fly ball to right. But when he started attacking the first good pitch he saw the worm turned.
Josh Bell recently said hitters were giving up parts of the strike zone last year because if they swung at those pitches the result would be a ground ball into the shift. He said this year with no shift he will be attacking those pitches. If hitters are more inclined to pull the ball this year due to no more shifting we should see more hard hit balls and extra base hits.
The other thing the Guardians need to improve on is hitting fastballs. In terms of weighted runs above average they ranked 29th against fastballs last year, 21st against curves, 13th against sliders, 16th against cutters, and 3rd against changeups. I think they were taught to wait as long as possible on pitches which hurt them on fastballs, helped them on changeups, and resulted in all those weakly hit balls to the opposite field, which at best end up being singles (unless you’re Josh Naylor or Oscar Gonzalez).
Opposing pitchers knew all about that; Guardians hitters ranked 3rd in percentage of fastballs faced and 28th in percentage of changeups. The word got out - don’t throw the Guardians too many changeups, better to overpower them with fastballs. Attack the zone early, get strike one, and then make them chase.
My advice for the Guardians this year is to sit on fastballs early in the count and attack them. If you get behind in the count expect to be teased and don’t chase, even if it means taking an occasional called strike three. When you have the 6th most swings outside the zone and the 28th most walks, something is very wrong. When you let more “meatballs” go by than any other team and are last in hard hit percentage, something is very wrong.
They need a different approach, even if it means no longer being the team that strikes out the least.
