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Hurricane Dorian

KI4MVP

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I live in Florida - in the Jacksonville area, so am keeping a watch on Hurricane Dorian. It's currently projected to hit around west palm beach (well south of us) sometime Monday night as a category 4 and then turn north towards Jacksonville, weakening as it goes, but still be cat 2 when it gets here. THere's still a pretty large amount of uncertainty around that.
 
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King Stannis

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Stay safe!

Are you well provisioned?
 

CleveRocks

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Yeah don't screw around with a cat 2 even.. Water, non cold food that does not need to be cooked, full gas tanks..
 

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we stocked up on groceries yesterday and the car is full in case we need to leave. Stupid school district here hasn't canceled class for tuesday yet and the web site says they won't announce if it's closed until at least Sunday. It's a 3 day weekend, if they canceled it already, it'd be easier for people to just leave early and keep the roads from getting so congested.
 

KI4MVP

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Projected path keeps moving west, most likely path is now to stay off the coast of florida and hit in South Carolina. Some models have it missing the US all together. Hopefully it keeps moving that direction.
 

bob2the2nd

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Projected path keeps moving west, most likely path is now to stay off the coast of florida and hit in South Carolina. Some models have it missing the US all together. Hopefully it keeps moving that direction.
Was just about to post this.

But paralleling the US coast isn't ideal either.
 

KI4MVP

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Was just about to post this.

But paralleling the US coast isn't ideal either.
Yes, parallel to the coast is still bad if it's too close and lets it stay stronger as it keeps moving towards potential land fall. projections continue to move further away from the coast. When I started the thread, West palm beach was the projected landing spot, now it's barely in the cone.


None of the spaghetti models here have it hitting florida at all now, two of them have it missing the whole US. A day or so ago, they all had them to the east of Jacksonville, now they are all to the west. I think what's happening is it's moving slower than projected, which is allowing some system to push it further west.

 

KI4MVP

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180 MPH winds now, from the latest advisory

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...
 

KI4MVP

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two of the spaghetti model paths have it going straight over our house now (HWRF, HWFI), the rest all have it staying well clear of us

 

Nathan S

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Be safe man. Let us know when it passes you and you guys are ok.
 

Lee

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two of the spaghetti model paths have it going straight over our house now (HWRF, HWFI), the rest all have it staying well clear of us

Why is called spaghetti model?

And prepare for it, this storm is no fucking joke for sure.
 

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