Ideas on how to make this team a WS competitor going forward

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Criznit

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Though the odds of JRam ending his contract/playing days for Cleveland are astronomically low, I don't see a huge drop off in trade value if we wait to 2022 to trade him. However after that, it starts diminishing quickly.

I am not advocating trading JRam now, but if someone backs up the Brinks truck.. You have to at least consider it
 
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petes999

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Though the odds of JRam ending his contract/playing days for Cleveland are astronomically low, I don't see a huge drop off in trade value if we wait to 2022 to trade him. However after that, it start diminishing quickly.

I am not advocating trading JRam now, but if some backs up the Brinks truck.. You have to at least consider it

I would agree what we can get from JRam now may not be too far off what we can get next year but its mainly due to the depressed market for 3B due to supply and COVID limiting spending ... but not years remaining.

From a baseball sense, the trade value of a player is anticipated WAR per year X a factor (around 7 to 9) less what he is getting paid all multiplied by the number of years remaining on his contract.

From a choice standpoint, I would assume you want a player with 3 years left on his contract versus 2 years or 1 year left (assuming player is in prime and no anticipated injury issues). That is common sense. If you have a player like Ramirez who is worth $40 million (say 6 WAR x 7) but is paid around $10 million (on average), a buying team will get $30 million in surplus value for 3 years now. That is worth more than waiting till next year to get only $30 million for 2 years.

Right now, one concern with Benetendi (other than if his projections are falling rather than rising -- thus are you buying a dud or is it time to buy low) is he only has 2 years left. If he had 3-4 years left, I assume more teams would be more willing to buy in and pay more.. meeting Boston's asking price (ready OF and younger pitcher. 3 or 4 years is always better than 1 or 2 (other than when buying an older player with injury concerns).

I don't think we will trade Ramirez now. Yet, come trading deadline if COVID uncertainty is reduced and Ramirez is one of few prime players on the market, we may find a good sweet spot (especially if we prove to be middle of the road team - not quite enough hitting to make a real playoff run). I see the trade deadline period as not too far off from BOY trade value as the need for playoff power is more valuable than 1/2 season lost (from April to July) - plus you save paying 1/2 the salary (for last 2/3rs of year w playoffs inc.).

I also see players like Ramirez and others having more value now with financial uncertainty. If Ramirez hit FA market, he would get $30 million plus for at least a few years (easily). Yet, this could cause team luxury tax issues that would increase the total outlay to $40 million. Getting Ram for $10 million, would save tax money and could fit into more teams limited budget (without having to find extra funding to make a playoff chase realistic).

Lastly, let's agree trading Ramirez is not about saving money. It is about when to get the most value. You have to be open to listening to see when the time is right to get an offer too good to believe. If I can get 3 near top-100 prospects to fill 3 holes, damn sure I will do it rather than waiting as the price goes down (as # of years left goes down). As other say, unless Naylor, Bradley and others step up to put more strong sticks into line-up, Ramirez will not have enough around him to get good pitching to raise his value for next offseason like he did last year between Cesar, Lindor and Santana, Reyes. He will struggle trying to carry the team as he gets junk off-speed pitches.
 

Criznit

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I would agree what we can get from JRam now may not be too far off what we can get next year but its mainly due to the depressed market for 3B due to supply and COVID limiting spending ... but not years remaining.

From a baseball sense, the trade value of a player is anticipated WAR per year X a factor (around 7 to 9) less what he is getting paid all multiplied by the number of years remaining on his contract.

From a choice standpoint, I would assume you want a player with 3 years left on his contract versus 2 years or 1 year left (assuming player is in prime and no anticipated injury issues). That is common sense. If you have a player like Ramirez who is worth $40 million (say 6 WAR x 7) but is paid around $10 million (on average), a buying team will get $30 million in surplus value for 3 years now. That is worth more than waiting till next year to get only $30 million for 2 years.

Right now, one concern with Benetendi (other than if his projections are falling rather than rising -- thus are you buying a dud or is it time to buy low) is he only has 2 years left. If he had 3-4 years left, I assume more teams would be more willing to buy in and pay more.. meeting Boston's asking price (ready OF and younger pitcher. 3 or 4 years is always better than 1 or 2 (other than when buying an older player with injury concerns).

I don't think we will trade Ramirez now. Yet, come trading deadline if COVID uncertainty is reduced and Ramirez is one of few prime players on the market, we may find a good sweet spot (especially if we prove to be middle of the road team - not quite enough hitting to make a real playoff run). I see the trade deadline period as not too far off from BOY trade value as the need for playoff power is more valuable than 1/2 season lost (from April to July) - plus you save paying 1/2 the salary (for last 2/3rs of year w playoffs inc.).

I also see players like Ramirez and others having more value now with financial uncertainty. If Ramirez hit FA market, he would get $30 million plus for at least a few years (easily). Yet, this could cause team luxury tax issues that would increase the total outlay to $40 million. Getting Ram for $10 million, would save tax money and could fit into more teams limited budget (without having to find extra funding to make a playoff chase realistic).

Lastly, let's agree trading Ramirez is not about saving money. It is about when to get the most value. You have to be open to listening to see when the time is right to get an offer too good to believe. If I can get 3 near top-100 prospects to fill 3 holes, damn sure I will do it rather than waiting as the price goes down (as # of years left goes down). As other say, unless Naylor, Bradley and others step up to put more strong sticks into line-up, Ramirez will not have enough around him to get good pitching to raise his value for next offseason like he did last year between Cesar, Lindor and Santana, Reyes. He will struggle trying to carry the team as he gets junk off-speed pitches.


Very good post. I guess my point is....His overall value will diminish the longer he is an Indian, but how steep is that drop off. You spelled it out perfectly. In a numbers game, that's a slightly lower prospect.. Or 2. That said what if Jose makes another legit run at the MVP? Or how dare I say, get injured...

The best guess "peak" is this years trade deadline and whether or not winning games is a non-factor. Trade him now or at the deadline, I don't see a ton of differences if any in the return packages. Holding off may give us a clearer picture at what we want to target/acquire, but as noted the longer we hold the lower the expectation.
 

CDAV45

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In the end, it isn't about how quickly Ramirez's value will decline, the pandemic, payroll, or anything else. The only relevant questions here are if this is the best time to trade Ramirez and will it significantly aid the "retooling/rebuilding" process?
 

Gson

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Very good post. I guess my point is....His overall value will diminish the longer he is an Indian, but how steep is that drop off. You spelled it out perfectly. In a numbers game, that's a slightly lower prospect.. Or 2. That said what if Jose makes another legit run at the MVP? Or how dare I say, get injured...

The best guess "peak" is this years trade deadline and whether or not winning games is a non-factor. Trade him now or at the deadline, I don't see a ton of differences if any in the return packages. Holding off may give us a clearer picture at what we want to target/acquire, but as noted the longer we hold the lower the expectation.
I also agree with the petes999 posting..

Where the divergence is.. is guessing when Ramirez's value will peak.. there's no guess needed.. Near MVP.. OPS over .990.. one control & two club options years on a very team friendly contract.. playing a position in much demand by teams closest to competing with the Dodgers (also a team in demand) for being the favorite to win the world series..

Now is the time.. like no other time can be.. or will be.. as we know in six months, at the trading deadline, there will be 2/3rds of a season of control gone.. there may be one of more team who's hope springing eternal has seen that hope wane to the point of inaction.. (they may be replaced with a newer team on the rise).. and, the performance as measured by statistics.. may be dramatically lower.. but cannot be anything but marginally higher..

Now is the time.. and there is ALWAYS the subject of cost savings as part of CLEFO's operating motives.. Nine million less is still nine million less..

It takes two to tango.. and there remains five that have a tango on their dance card.. they don't want to pay a penny more in money or prospect currency than they have to.. but they will.. there's always someone who will..

Thoughts?..
 

petes999

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I also agree with the petes999 posting..

Where the divergence is.. is guessing when Ramirez's value will peak.. there's no guess needed.. Near MVP.. OPS over .990.. one control & two club options years on a very team friendly contract.. playing a position in much demand by teams closest to competing with the Dodgers (also a team in demand) for being the favorite to win the world series..

Now is the time.. like no other time can be.. or will be.. as we know in six months, at the trading deadline, there will be 2/3rds of a season of control gone.. there may be one of more team who's hope springing eternal has seen that hope wane to the point of inaction.. (they may be replaced with a newer team on the rise).. and, the performance as measured by statistics.. may be dramatically lower.. but cannot be anything but marginally higher..

Now is the time.. and there is ALWAYS the subject of cost savings as part of CLEFO's operating motives.. Nine million less is still nine million less..

It takes two to tango.. and there remains five that have a tango on their dance card.. they don't want to pay a penny more in money or prospect currency than they have to.. but they will.. there's always someone who will..

Thoughts?..

I would agree to most. Yet, if a trade is in February or in July, I think also has to do with

1) Cleveland missing a year of data if the package centers around AA/AAA talent -- feel a need to see them as they saw Rosario and Giminez last year.

2) A few teams maybe hoping for a prospect to jump up from A+ or AA and fill that role (only to be dashed by realism of ST) -- like us hoping Jones, Miller and Freeman can fill a few holes in 2021.

3) Cleveland management not wanting to admit to being in a rebuild.

It is sexy to think that with Bieber and Ramirez that we can ride the combined 6.6 WAR last year between the two into a divisional playoff chase. And, I would agree, Ramirez hitting his way to league leading 3.4 WAR per FanGraph will be hard to even top marginally.

Yet, the Indians have to be realistic in that losing 7.1 WAR in Hernandez, Lindor, Santana, Hand, Perez and Cookie (only to replace .8 WAR immediately with Giminez) can't be made up with Naylor, Miller, Jones, Bradley, Chang, Clase and even Quantrill (for Cookie spot). There are only two other batters with a positive WAR Reyes and Luplow. Right now, FanGraph has us 15th in projected WAR -- right in the middle of mediocrity. We have a projected 32 WAR vs Sox 40. Yes, anything can happen (and that will hook management and fans to try for a few months). Yet, statistically, there is a better chance of the Royals overtaking us (26 WAR) than us overtaking either the Sox or Twins (at 38.8 right now with more significant FAs to sign).

I agree that Ramirez stats will more than likely be lower this year. Yet, they will be more cautious on the return for Jose than Lindor (make sure they get it right). And, other GMs usually salivate at the opportunity of getting an MVP slugger at a semi-premium position (3B) knowing that a pathetic line-up will cause a player's stats to dip a bit. So, it could happen in February but I don't see a big drop-off in return in they wait to mid-July.
 

Gson

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I would agree to most. Yet, if a trade is in February or in July, I think also has to do with

1) Cleveland missing a year of data if the package centers around AA/AAA talent -- feel a need to see them as they saw Rosario and Giminez last year.

2) A few teams maybe hoping for a prospect to jump up from A+ or AA and fill that role (only to be dashed by realism of ST) -- like us hoping Jones, Miller and Freeman can fill a few holes in 2021.

3) Cleveland management not wanting to admit to being in a rebuild.

It is sexy to think that with Bieber and Ramirez that we can ride the combined 6.6 WAR last year between the two into a divisional playoff chase. And, I would agree, Ramirez hitting his way to league leading 3.4 WAR per FanGraph will be hard to even top marginally.

Yet, the Indians have to be realistic in that losing 7.1 WAR in Hernandez, Lindor, Santana, Hand, Perez and Cookie (only to replace .8 WAR immediately with Giminez) can't be made up with Naylor, Miller, Jones, Bradley, Chang, Clase and even Quantrill (for Cookie spot). There are only two other batters with a positive WAR Reyes and Luplow. Right now, FanGraph has us 15th in projected WAR -- right in the middle of mediocrity. We have a projected 32 WAR vs Sox 40. Yes, anything can happen (and that will hook management and fans to try for a few months). Yet, statistically, there is a better chance of the Royals overtaking us (26 WAR) than us overtaking either the Sox or Twins (at 38.8 right now with more significant FAs to sign).

I agree that Ramirez stats will more than likely be lower this year. Yet, they will be more cautious on the return for Jose than Lindor (make sure they get it right). And, other GMs usually salivate at the opportunity of getting an MVP slugger at a semi-premium position (3B) knowing that a pathetic line-up will cause a player's stats to dip a bit. So, it could happen in February but I don't see a big drop-off in return in they wait to mid-July.
Agree with this..

except for the Royals stuff.. naaaahhh !
 

petes999

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Agree with this..

except for the Royals stuff.. naaaahhh !

I would agree that we are a solid 3rd place team ... yet the point was FanGraphs thinks we are closer to them than overtaking the Twins or the Sox. And, to the point, we are one injury to Bieber or one trade of Jose of possibly being overtaken. Even if Reyes hits a little better this year or Chang/Bauers become serviceable, it ain't going to move the needle.
 

CDAV45

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We're 19 pages deep on this thread and I'm more fuckin' befuddled then when it started. I have no idea how this shit is going to work itself out, but it always does one way or the other. I just hope they don't waste too much time on guys that don't have it. I also hope that they don't allow mediocre/less than stellar players to keep them from acquiring significant talent.
 

sportscoach

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We're 19 pages deep on this thread and I'm more fuckin' befuddled then when it started. I have no idea how this shit is going to work itself out, but it always does one way or the other. I just hope they don't waste too much time on guys that don't have it. I also hope that they don't allow mediocre/less than stellar players to keep them from acquiring significant talent.

All I know is that the Indians will sign someone before spring starts at a major league deal, and we will sign a whole bunch of minor league invites of veterans (we could even see Mike Freemanm, DeShields and Naquin back on one)

I also have a hunch, we will see some type of trade in season (for like a Guirrel type, a proven MLB guy with years of control) and our position players that start the season, wont be looking the same at the end of the season.
 

Benway

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Well, I haven't seen one idea that makes us a World Series contender so far.
This puts us squarely on a level with the franchise itself.
 

Alabuckeye

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probably because there isn't one trade or one position where we can say "You fill that and we are a contender for the WS"....
 

petes999

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It’s probably why Indians didn’t make another move at last year’s trade deadline either. They didn’t find anything at the right price supposedly. They wanted to make one last run at playoffs when we had Lindor/Ramirez combo but didn’t want to spend capital on anything more than that. Adding another OF along with Naylor would have made sense. Yet, they weren’t going to break the bank for a 2-3 year plug when they knew DeShields and Nanquín were already on chopping block (needed to be upgraded). If they didn’t do it in August, with a full lineup to push us to contender side of playoffs, why do it now with lineup less Lindor, Santana and Cesar?
 

CDAV45

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Hell, we don't even know what to trade for at this point. Will Naylor hit? Will Johnson realize any of his potential? What f'n position can Jones actually play? Can Bradley not swing and miss so much? Mercado is a toss up. Gimenez is 22. Rosario hasn't lived up to his hype so far. Can Luplow hit RHP? Who knows what Zimmer will do. We're going to watch them find the answers to these questions, at least initially. This is literally the definition of throwing a bunch of shit against the wall to see what sticks.

Unfortunately, this team could probably become a contender, but that would require giving up on many currently on the roster. That isn't this organizations MO.
 

petes999

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We know what they should trade for... A middle of the order, outfield bat like Waters. If the player is CF, the better. Then you have options at each position...

1B - Bradley, Naylor, Bauers, Reyes, Jones
3B - Ramirez (for now), Chang, Miller, Jones
2B - Rosario, FA (Cesar supposedly), Miller, Freeman
SS - Gimenez (when ready), Chang, Arias (2 years)
LF - Naylor, Jones, Rosario,
CF - Trade candidate, Mercado,
RF - Johnson, Luplow, Mercado

Yes, it is throwing things against the wall but it is a puzzle that needs a month of ST to sort out (not a big deal). The big question is how close is Gimenez, Miller, Jones and Freeman. If 1 or 2 are ready for start of season and other 1/2 season behind, we would be in good shape with 2 starters from a Ramirez trade (CF,3B) or just CF trade w prospects. If none of the prospects are ready (there is a hole at SS especially), the season is toast as we will be playing catch up and not enough fire power to catch up.

Let's be honest, at the time of Lindor trade, the FO knew if Gimenez was their Day 1 starter or AAA guy. The rest of the time from here to April (FO moves) will reflect that (buy a CF or not) as Rosario is not the SS that people thought he would be and Chang ... is below average WAR utility guy.

At first, I thought Gimenez would be ready for start of season, that 1/3 of season was part of getting him up to speed. But, just looked at the stats. He last 35 at bats ... 5 hits. He did hit all 3 HRs in Sept. Yet, average just increased from .240 in August to .265 in Sept. A bit positive but AAA maybe possible for a month, we will see.
 
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