Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[weepinwillow]

Offense wins in the regular season, offense wins in the playoffs.

I know it's a nostalgic security blanket to think that the playoffs are about "Good Ol' NBA Basketball" where physical play rules and the value of hard-nosed, unskilled, defense-first guys goes up, but I'll have to break the bad news:

Playoff defense is more about team-wide adjustments from game to game. You can't shoot in the regular season... you're equally useless in the playoffs.

Scoring rules. Now and forever. Amen.

That's pre-James Harden rule thinking.
NBA has shifted ever so slightly where quality perimeter defenders are about to be the new 3 point shooters or rim protecting-mobile bigs.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Maybe this is just confirmation bias but I really feel like "improving on 3pt shooting" is the new norm, and those that are perpetual terrible 3pt shooters are the exception.

It is more of to what degree, not that zero improvement is a given.

Okoro lacks dribble creativity, so he will really rely on two things...

1. Straight line drives where he can use his power and athleticism
2. Ability to hit open shots

If he doesn't get 2, eventually 1 will become harder and harder.

We have a nice mix of personnel around him, that allows him to attack more often against rotating defenders.......but eventually, teams are going to closeout far slower on him........and over a longer period of time, he's going to need to hit open shots at a near league average rate.

The league average 3PT % is 36.7% this year and similar to things like QB play in the NFL, that bar doesn't get lower each year. It has remained steady for a long time and actually ticked upward slightly.

Okoro has defensive potential / skill that will continue to offset his offense but that is a big gap shooting wise. I don't think he needs to get to 37%, just relative to the value he delivers on defense but he probably needs to be a near average shooter at more average volume. Even doing that is a big improvement from where he currently is. It is so hard to increase volume and percentage in tandem. Impossible? No.....but man, it is difficult.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

This is just ridiculous when responding back about a guy shooting better, and I think you know that.

I stopped reading your post there.

If you think simply shooting better on his corner 3P attempts gets Okoro to where he needs to be in order to be a starting SG for a championship level team you’re sadly mistaken. In my post I detail exactly what facets of the game we need improvement from him in and how likely they are.

The point of the Pangos comparison is hyperbole using a player we can all agree fucking sucks and it’s meant to dismiss the continuous overly optimistic projections people have of our own players, especially guys like Okoro who haven’t shown anywhere near enough to warrant them. Where after a few games of hitting his open threes Okoro is all of a sudden an untradable core piece of this team’s future. Again it’s important to look at the large sample of data, talk about what’s realistic for Okoro, and then properly make decisions based on all of that. Obviously we can’t make those decisions ourselves but I actually trust that the front office isn’t as unrealistic when it comes to Okoro as this board is. I have no doubt they would have no issue throwing him in as part of a trade package with Sexton or a first if it meant acquiring an upgrade at the SG position.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

As long as you have the required athleticism, it's MUCH easier to improve as a defender than as a shooter/scorer in the NBA. Okoro has an uphill battle ahead of him.

I think the ability of truly great defenders to see the floor and play intelligent defense is very much akin to the ability of a great PG to see the floor on offense, and neither can really be taught.

 

[I'mWithDan]

If you think simply shooting better on his corner 3P attempts gets Okoro to where he needs to be in order to be a starting SG for a championship level team you’re sadly mistaken. In my post I detail exactly what facets of the game we need improvement from him in and how likely they are.

I'm more cold on Okoro's prospects but there are ways he gets there that are irrespective of his offense.

If he becomes truly a 1st team all defense type, he's likely a starting SG on a championship caliber team.

Like, if he enters that Thybulle range.......where you get tape of him shutting down Steph like guys to almost nothing, then yeah......his offense just doesn't generally matter all that much at all.

I also think getting a creator at the 3 changes Okoro's outlook, as we then can hide him far easier on offense, especially in the post-season.

There are a few different ways it can fall in to place, to me.....him vaulting forward defensively, his shooting improving or getting more dynamic at the 3. I think the last one is really tough.....but it is an avenue.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

It is more of to what degree, not that zero improvement is a given.

Okoro lacks dribble creativity, so he will really rely on two things...

1. Straight line drives where he can use his power and athleticism
2. Ability to hit open shots

If he doesn't get 2, eventually 1 will become harder and harder.

We have a nice mix of personnel around him, that allows him to attack more often against rotating defenders.......but eventually, teams are going to closeout far slower on him........and over a longer period of time, he's going to need to hit open shots at a near league average rate.

The league average 3PT % is 36.7% this year and similar to things like QB play in the NFL, that bar doesn't get lower each year. It has remained steady for a long time and actually ticked upward slightly.

Okoro has defensive potential / skill that will continue to offset his offense but that is a big gap shooting wise. I don't think he needs to get to 37%, just relative to the value he delivers on defense but he probably needs to be a near average shooter at more average volume. Even doing that is a big improvement from where he currently is. It is so hard to increase volume and percentage in tandem. Impossible? No.....but man, it is difficult.

And like I said in my post on the prior page, all 3 point attempts are not created equal. If Okoro shoots 37% on mostly open corner 3 attempts yes that would be very helpful and it would be great improvement from him. But how valuable is that offensive player? When your SG has no versatility in the location and creation of his threes and he’s not doing his damage on a lot of contested looks, he’s still a very limited shooter regardless of the conversion rate. And that limits both that player’s impact and your team’s offense. At that point he would still need to become an an absolutely elite all-league defender imo, which would require better rebounding and superior team defense than he’s shown so far (more switchability, better rotations and help efforts, racking up more steals, etc). And given his limitations in terms of height and processing instincts I don’t know how much better he can get on that end than he is right now in all honesty.

Since you mentioned Thybulle, Matisse averages 2.7 steals per 36 for his career. Okoro is at just 1.0. He also has a 6’11 wingspan which allows him to do better on switches and be more of a deterrent on rotations around the hoop. He’s just in a different world as a defender than Okoro is, and again when you’re limited both by size and processing instincts like Isaac is, where do we expect that improvement to come from to vault him from where he is now to one of the most impactful defenders in the game regardless of position, which allows him to overcome his offensive deficiencies and still be valuable as a starter to a contending team?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If you think simply shooting better on his corner 3P attempts gets Okoro to where he needs to be in order to be a starting SG for a championship level team you’re sadly mistaken.

If J.R. Smith and Danny Green can be starting SG's on a championship team, I don't see any reason why Okoro with a corner 3 couldn't be.

We're neither expecting nor asking him to be a "Big 3" kind of player. We're asking him to be one of the other two complementary pieces that Big 3's need to win a championship.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

If J.R. Smith and Danny Green can be starting SG's on a championship team, I don't see any reason why Okoro with a corner 3 couldn't be.

Danny Green is legitimately one of the best help defenders at the guard position in the modern era and he’s in a different world than Isaac as a shooter and someone who the defense will always have to be aware of and sticking to. JR pre-2017 was an underrated defender for the Cavs but more importantly he was a lightning offensive option who was always moving on offense hunting for catch and shoot looks. He shot 43% from 3 on 7+ attempts per game in the 2016 playoffs. He was a guy who could quickly light up your team for 6-7 threes on all contested looks and defenses were terrified of him going off, so he really manipulated the defense.

Okoro with a corner three still isn’t approaching that kind of value.

 

[chuck0609]

Danny Green is legitimately one of the best help defenders at the guard position in the modern era and he’s in a different world than Isaac as a shooter and someone who the defense will always have to be aware of and sticking to. JR pre-2017 was an underrated defender for the Cavs but more importantly he was a lightning offensive option who was always moving on offense hunting for catch and shoot looks. He shot 43% from 3 on 7+ attempts per game in the 2016 playoffs. He was a guy who could quickly light up your team for 6-7 threes on all contested looks and defenses were terrified of him going off, so he really manipulated the defense.

Okoro with a corner three still isn’t approaching that kind of value.

At 20 years old we have no idea what he will develop into. We already know he’s a plus defender who’s can get to the hoop, run the court and hit an occasional 3. That’s a damn good start.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Danny Green is one of the best help defenders at the guard position in the modern era and he’s in a different world than Isaac as a shooter and someone who the defense will always have to be aware of and sticking to. JR pre-2017 was an underrated defender for the Cavs but more importantly he was a lightning offensive option who was always moving on offense hunting for catch and shoot looks. He shot 43% from 3 on 7+ attempts per game in the 2016 playoffs. He was a guy who could quickly light up your team for 6-7 threes on all contested looks and defenses were terrified of him going off, so he really manipulated the defense.

Okoro with a corner three still isn’t approaching that kind of value.

I think Okoro already is as good or better a defender than either of those guys. Okoro already -- this season, and even without the reliable corner 3 we were discussing -- has a higher true shooting percentage than did JR in the championship season. Also a higher TS% than Danny Green had in the Laker's championship season.

And he's only 21.

 

[Alec]

friend.. think the obsession with a ball handling play making 2/3 stems from recognition that the opposing teams best hope against the cavs is to clamp irons on DG.. Warriors did it and flat killed us..

It's an admitted weakness of the team, albeit one most teams don't have the personnel to execute..

Of course. Which is why Okoro has to get these skills, or the Cavs need some combination of Mobley becoming an offensive hub and a competent SF (in the future, though not terribly far away).

This issue is somewhat mitigated if you have sexton and Rubio, but then you’re running into the problem of having two midgets on the court. 3 if you add Okoro at the same time.

Either Okoro makes strides or major personnel changes are likely.

 

[avs2000]

I think Okoro already is as good or better a defender than either of those guys. Okoro already -- this season, and even without the reliable corner 3 we were discussing -- has a higher true shooting percentage than did JR in the championship season. Also a higher TS% than Danny Green had in the Laker's championship season.

And he's only 21.

agreed. Thing that intrigues me about Okoro is his age, defense...that does not go into slumps. If his offense continues to evolve it is the realm of possibility we have a "big 4" Possibility I am suggesting, not a certainty. If he is already at his ceiling he is still a good rotational piece. I just do not think this is his ceiling

 

[Lee]

Darius looking at Ice while thinking "This motherfucker has bailed my ass out on defense so many times and we both know this, but I can't say that shit publically"

The best part is at the very end they are talking about Okoro's dunk and he said he thought better of doing a reverse dunk and Garland says "he doesnt have that much bounce anyways" and Okoro just dropped his head as Garland laughed. I love seeing them enjoying playing together....very easy to root for.

 

[Lee]

As long as you have the required athleticism, it's MUCH easier to improve as a defender than as a shooter/scorer in the NBA. Okoro has an uphill battle ahead of him.

This is why teams don't draft guys with no offense in the Top 10 if they can avoid it. Okoro would've been a nice pick in the 15-20 range, but Top 5? Madness.

So many lottery players fail, that its hard to predict. You also need role players, your whole team cant score 20 points, heck not all of your starters can score 15 points.

In a weak draft, there were many players after him in the lottery that werent good picks. The obvious miss was Haliburton, but every draft has misses.

We need role players, guys who start but score 12 points are ok with that. Guys who come in and defend there ass off and dont put up big points unless its there for him. I dont think Okoro is a future all star personally, but i think he is a future all defensive team multiple times and I think he can be a perfect fit for this team in a role. He is shooting at around league average for sg on efficiency stats at .55 TS on the season, he is 20, will get better, but no he will never be Klay.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

agreed. Thing that intrigues me about Okoro is his age, defense...that does not go into slumps. If his offense continues to evolve it is the realm of possibility we have a "big 4" Possibility I am suggesting, not a certainty. If he is already at his ceiling he is still a good rotational piece. I just do not think this is his ceiling

I just think there is a tendency of people to not just dream about, but expect to have studs at all 5 starting positions, so they overestimate what it takes for someone to be a starter on a championship team. You wouldn't want to have two guys like Okoro at the 2 and the 3, but there is absolutely no reason having Okoro at the 2 and a more offensive-oriented 3 wouldn't work just fine with our Big 3.