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James Wiseman Scouting: Discuss

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I don't think he's the runaway #1 pick or anything, but he's being seriously underrated in here. As I've said previously, he wasn't the #1 ranked recruit by accident. Did anyone catch the 2019 Hoop Summit, where he took co-MVP with 6 blocks in 23 minutes? Obviously there's a shortage of data because he only played 3 college games, but I don't see anything in his profile that would make me doubt his shot blocking potential. This is in contrast to Ayton, who was a notoriously disinterested rim protector in high school and college.

Of course, I'll be the first to say that *outside* of the paint he really struggles (on both ends of the court). But in the paint, his combination of size, athleticism, and timing is pretty elite.
 
I don't think he's the runaway #1 pick or anything, but he's being seriously underrated in here. As I've said previously, he wasn't the #1 ranked recruit by accident. Did anyone catch the 2019 Hoop Summit, where he took co-MVP with 6 blocks in 23 minutes? Obviously there's a shortage of data because he only played 3 college games, but I don't see anything in his profile that would make me doubt his shot blocking potential. This is in contrast to Ayton, who was a notoriously disinterested rim protector in high school and college.

Of course, I'll be the first to say that *outside* of the paint he really struggles (on both ends of the court). But in the paint, his combination of size, athleticism, and timing is pretty elite.
his athletic ability is better than average center prospects for sure , and that is something to chalk on the Positive column but he isnt really very explosive, and he isn't really very strong for a 5 nor has there been evidence he has elite iq on reads anywhere including the paint and more often it's just him showing up late but still impacting outcomes and often getting blocks because of his ridiculous wingspan and reach.
I don't think he is underrated at all, if anything it's the opposite. This draft has very few polarizing options and definitely few if any that have elite potential based on body type like he has , but he has a long ways to go mentally before he is "playing basketball at a high level" besides catching lobs in transition
 
his athletic ability is better than average center prospects for sure , and that is something to chalk on the Positive column but he isnt really very explosive, and he isn't really very strong for a 5 nor has there been evidence he has elite iq on reads anywhere including the paint and more often it's just him showing up late but still impacting outcomes and often getting blocks because of his ridiculous wingspan and reach.
I don't think he is underrated at all, if anything it's the opposite. This draft has very few polarizing options and definitely few if any that have elite potential based on body type like he has , but he has a long ways to go mentally before he is "playing basketball at a high level" besides catching lobs in transition

Yeah, I basically agree with this. His fundamentals and IQ defensively are not elite, but his size and length give him enough margin for error that he's still a very good rebounder and shot blocker. If you see his fundamentals and IQ improving substantially, then he's arguably in play for the #1 pick in spite of shortcomings elsewhere in his game, because the raw potential is there for him to dominate the paint like few others. If not, he's more of a mid/late lottery guy.
 
I know I've questioned how valuable he can be, but I also think it's a pretty safe bet that he ends up one of the top 3 guys in this draft once their careers are over
 
^I think the odds are not in his favor being one of the top 3 in the draft but I do think even at his worst he will be top 15. However being a 7'er with length and raw bb skill doesn't deserve much praise and it's all about is the upside going to be relialized or isn't it. He is pretty raw so the odds are against great improvements once he gets paid esp if he is not the worker he would need to be to get those gains.
Right now I would bet on Okongwu who is far more NBA ready mentally despite lacking a 7'5" ws and definitely more mobile and explosve already showing he can defend most attacks inside the paint at the rim above it and on the perimeter with ease. Also can see plays materializing and impact outcomes even without actually blocking the ball.
So, because of it big O is far more likely to be the more productive player regardless of where he is used as a 4 or 5 offensively. He also has shown more reliable shooting capability on tape in HS and doesn't force it, I mean the footwork and touch with either hand around the basket is already high level stuff for a under 20 big.
 
^I think the odds are not in his favor being one of the top 3 in the draft but I do think even at his worst he will be top 15. However being a 7'er with length and raw bb skill doesn't deserve much praise and it's all about is the upside going to be relialized or isn't it. He is pretty raw so the odds are against great improvements once he gets paid esp if he is not the worker he would need to be to get those gains.
Right now I would bet on Okongwu who is far more NBA ready mentally despite lacking a 7'5" ws and definitely more mobile and explosve already showing he can defend most attacks inside the paint at the rim above it and on the perimeter with ease. Also can see plays materializing and impact outcomes even without actually blocking the ball.
So, because of it big O is far more likely to be the more productive player regardless of where he is used as a 4 or 5 offensively. He also has shown more reliable shooting capability on tape in HS and doesn't force it, I mean the footwork and touch with either hand around the basket is already high level stuff for a under 20 big.
Top 15 isn’t really saying anything, so I guess you’re pretty low on him. There probably won't even be 8 guys in this class that stick as starters in this league.
 
Top 15 isn’t really saying anything, so I guess you’re pretty low on him. There probably won't even be 8 guys in this class that stick as starters in this league.
raw bigs are a huge gamble high lottery esp before high IQ bigs with modern NBA mobility , now if Okongwu is gone when the Cavs pick I would actually prefer they gamble on Wiseman provided they are able to get a private workout and private interview. As opposed to trying to get take aways from such ltd tape and generalized q/a yt posts.
Wiseman does have a good egg by the sounds of it so far, so that helps . However he has gotten by for way to long on length and height by HS coaches who didnt need him to do anything else.
The odds any big in this class reaches big O's IQ in the next couple seasons are slim aside from upper classman types who would be pushing 30 by the end of the rookie deal.
It's just like Okoro having ridiculous defensive skill and athleticism but lacking a reliable jumper as a wing kills his stock as a high lottery plug in.
 
When the college games were actually being played, I preferred Okoro and Okongwu because I could see their impact on the defensive side of the ball on a regular basis. I remain worried that Wiseman is not only just trying to maintain what he once was a year ago, but might have regressed without much competition. He is going to be a long-term project.

But now, without that recency bias lens I had in January and February, I have to think that all these prospects are in the same arrested development predicament as Wiseman. They are all working out in small groups without a lot of real competition.

I think I'm bumping Wiseman as my #1 overall match for the Cavs, through no other new information other than talking myself into it.
 
I won't be upset with Wiseman at all. It is worth the risk prob. Okongwu is more my kind of defender. Not a total freak, but high IQ. I'd prefer him, but it's probably even odds on who ends up the better player.
 
Fedor is saying Ball and others talking to the front office say ball, but Windt thinks Wiseman.


I sometimes have a hard time telling the difference between what someone tells Windy and what his prediction is.

Maybe it is #1 Ball
#2 Wiseman, I dunno.
 
A lot seems to hinge on whether Wiseman is a good shot blocker or an elite shot blocker. Whatever team drafts him is going to have to tailor its defensive gameplan to his skills, because like Ayton he's pretty slow and clumsy in space. That could go really well or really poorly depending on how good he is in the rim-protector role. I tend to think he's at least a little bit better than Ayton in that area, but I'm not sure how much better.

Relative to his size and position, Ayton was a pretty average (to a tick below) college shot blocker at 3.4 BLK per 100.

The median blocks number for bigs selected in the top 10 (in the possession era) was 4.1.

Elite guys were around 7 and above.

I'd imagine it is a relatively safe bet that Wiseman is a better NBA shot blocker than Ayton......the big question for Wiseman is, will he be as effectively offensively?

As a rookie......Ayton was top 20 in:

Offensive Rebounds
Offensive Rebound %
Field Goal Percentage
Effective Field Gold Percentage

And he shot 77% from the FT line. I can't imagine Wiseman will be anywhere near those numbers from a ranking perspective. With the drug suspension, it is hard to say if Ayton can continue that kind off offensive efficiency and rebounding but to me, he was pretty impressive for a 20 year old big man who is still maturing and filling out. If Wiseman is on par with Ayton, I think he's the runaway pick in a draft like this. A player would have to be pretty damn good to exceed his projected career impact, relative to what we have seen thus far out of Ayton.
 
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Relative to his size and position, Ayton was a pretty average (to a tick below) college shot blocker at 3.4 BLK per 100.

The median blocks number for bigs selected in the top 10 (in the possession era) was 4.1.

Elite guys were around 7 and above.

I'd imagine it is a relatively safe bet that Wiseman is a better NBA shot blocker than Ayton......the big question for Wiseman is, will he be as effectively offensively?

As a rookie......Ayton was top 20 in:

Offensive Rebounds
Offensive Rebound %
Field Goal Percentage
Effective Field Gold Percentage

And he shot 77% from the FT line. I can't imagine Wiseman will be anywhere near those numbers from a ranking perspective. With the drug suspension, it is hard to say if Ayton can continue that kind off offensive efficiency and rebounding but to me, he was pretty impressive for a 20 year old big man who is still maturing and filling out. If Wiseman is on par with Ayton, I think he's the runaway pick in a draft like this. A player would have to be pretty damn good to exceed his career impact, relative to what we have seen thus far out of Ayton.

Ayton seems sort of under the radar as a young prospect to me. Rightly, Doncic and Trae have gotten a lot of attention, but he has been putting up very good numbers.

Is it you or Nathan S who says if you are center and you aren't good defensively, you are a waste unless you are an otherworldly offensive talent? I think we know Wiseman is prob not otherworldly offensively. So, the question becomes can he anchor a defense? It's possible, but as far as I know he doesn't have the IQ for that.

I personally think he will be a pretty good shot blocker, but his defense in other areas is suspect. It's definitely one reason I prefer Okongwu. I know he will be good guarding the pick and roll. I personally prefer other kinds of defense to shot blocking. Drummond had good block numbers with us, but was not nearly active enough as a defender. I don't want a guy like that, I want someone who can discourage penetration and cut off the ball handler.
 
^I think the odds are not in his favor being one of the top 3 in the draft but I do think even at his worst he will be top 15.

As @Derek said, typically only 6-8 players in a given draft turn in to useful players.

2010 draft for example......the 13, 14, 15 players relative to VORP were Landry Fields, Lance Stevenson and Grevis Vasquez, who generally have been replacement level players their whole careers. (I did 2010 because of the length of time since the draft)

Generally speaking, if you don't think a player can be a top 5 VORP player in a given draft, you should not select them in the lottery. Sometimes you have no choice, relative to the board but that is the reality. The higher you draft, the more certain you should be that the player will be a top 5 player from that draft.
 
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Fedor is saying Ball and others talking to the front office say ball, but Windt thinks Wiseman.


I sometimes have a hard time telling the difference between what someone tells Windy and what his prediction is.

Maybe it is #1 Ball
#2 Wiseman, I dunno.
I dont really like Fedor personality wise but he seems pretty spot on with his inside info generally. Windy is a lot more hit/miss
 
Ayton seems sort of under the radar as a young prospect to me. Rightly, Doncic and Trae have gotten a lot of attention, but he has been putting up very good numbers.

Is it you or Nathan S who says if you are center and you aren't good defensively, you are a waste unless you are an otherworldly offensive talent? I think we know Wiseman is prob not otherworldly offensively. So, the question becomes can he anchor a defense? It's possible, but as far as I know he doesn't have the IQ for that.

I personally think he will be a pretty good shot blocker, but his defense in other areas is suspect. It's definitely one reason I prefer Okongwu. I know he will be good guarding the pick and roll. I personally prefer other kinds of defense to shot blocking. Drummond had good block numbers with us, but was not nearly active enough as a defender. I don't want a guy like that, I want someone who can discourage penetration and cut off the ball handler.
I agree with your point about big men who can't play defense can't get on the court no matter their offensive skill level. Jahlil Okafor is a good example of this. Okafor was a really excellent low post offensive player at Duke. He still is a very skilled offensive player in the league but he's barely gotten minutes because he's not really a shot blocker and teams abuse him on the pick and roll. He just can't do it on the perimeter defensively so he never could gain much playing time after the league figured it out. I'm not saying Wiseman is Okafor btw just reiterating @Cavatt 's post.

If Wiseman is the pick, it would make sense the Cavs run a wide open, fast paced offense to best suit his skills. With Sexton that shouldn't be all that difficult. On offense for the first few years, Wiseman would be best to be that rim runner, explosive athlete going to the basket type center. He'll also be useful as an offensive rebounder immediately. If he can develop a reliable mid range jumper by year 2 or 3, you'll be able to do a lot more with him.
 

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