Kyler Murray Thread

[Lee]

Despite Mayfield exceeding my own expectations of him, I think that offense does give players an advantage in terms of how accurate or strong ones arm is.

Murray has a number of highlight throws this season where he drops it right in a bucket. But he generally throws with far less mechanics and lower body than Mayfield did at his worst.

They're really not much the same in terms of throwing motion or set up in the pocket.

For Murray to be successful, I think you need to find someone who is willing to throw out the traditional sets. Really go full on Air Raid principles and spread it out.

Murray isn't going to sit back there and pick NFL defenses apart. He's going to be timing, rhythm, just motioning you to death while opening up some killer running lanes the way Vick used to do.

You kind of nailed what I see. I see he has allot of tools, more than Lamar as far as accuracy. I am a bit worried about his height, but my biggest fears are a frail frame and lack of true pocket arm strength. I feel someone of the deep outs are just hard for him to throw and a frozen rope and could be much easier to pick with the pro corners.

He can play in space and you can design an offense today for that, but that means you trust that frame to not get hurt and you throw away about 25% of a typical modern offense to replace it with more mis directions.

But the accuracy and foot speed outside the pocket is exciting and I for sure will tune in on Sundays to watch him, I just wouldn't pick him in the first if it was my butt on the line as GM because it such an iffy new offense with too many variables to make me comfortable.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Brees completed 61% of his passes his 2nd year (the first as a starter), it happens.

You're equating completion % with accuracy. While there's certainly a correlation, completion % is affected by the quality of pass-catchers, OL, how well you know the offense, timing with receivers, etc.. Accuracy is more basic - how closely do you hit the spot at which you are aiming?

When I watch Jackson, I see a guy who consistently cannot hit the point at which he is aiming. Maybe there are some QB's who had that same issue out of college and became substantially more accurate in the pros, but I can't think of any offhand.

 

[Lee]

You're equating completion % with accuracy. While there's certainly a correlation, completion % is affected by the quality of pass-catchers, OL, how well you know the offense, timing with receivers, etc.. Accuracy is more basic - how closely do you hit the spot at which you are aiming?

When I watch Jackson, I see a guy who consistently cannot hit the point at which he is aiming. Maybe there are some QB's who had that same issue out of college and became substantially more accurate in the pros, but I can't think of any offhand.

I have always watched Brees career. He was very accurate at Purdue, but at the beginning, he had accuracy issues. As he learned to stay more in the pocket in the NFL and he was switched to more shot gun formations, his accuracy improved...not just his completion percentage.

Also I am sure he worked on his footwork. The number one thing about accuracy is making sure your feet are set and pointing the right way. I have no fucking idea how Baker is so good at setting his feet as a rookie. There was a drill I watched once of Brees where all he does is sit there and throw to various targets while setting and resetting his feet like 3 times. It is something that is worked on and something that for sure can be improved.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Am I crazy to think he's almost not draftable given his size? We've seen QBs be successful at 6'0 and 5'11 now but again that's the exception not the rule. There is a BIG difference between 6'0 and 5'9.

His weight, or lack thereof, is also a major issue.

Athletically, he's the closest player we've seen to Vick IMO......and he's a better and more accurate passer. He's just absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, running......or buying time to pass.

I don't know if he will be successful but I just don't prescribe to the theory that someone within a given height threshold can't play QB at the NFL level. Not when we are talking about a spread of an inch or two.

Does that mean I would take him? No.....but I just don't think there's much of a difference between Wilson at sub 5'11" and someone like Murray, even if he's 5'9", if they are capable passers. Height won't be the inhibiting factor IMO. Not with how you can use modern spread concepts to create more advantageous throwing lanes or route combinations.....or simply just move the pocket more often.

On athletic tools alone, he's a 1st rounder to me.....that may be late 1st but assuming he's 100% committed to football, surely he would go in the 20-40 range purely on his athletic testing IMO. Guess we'll see.

 

[Lee]

Athletically, he's the closest player we've seen to Vick IMO......and he's a better and more accurate passer. He's just absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, running......or buying time to pass.

I don't know if he will be successful but I just don't prescribe to the theory that someone within a given height threshold can't play QB at the NFL level. Not when we are talking about a spread of an inch or two.

Does that mean I would take him? No.....but I just don't think there's much of a difference between Wilson at sub 5'11" and someone like Murray, even if he's 5'9", if they are capable passers. Height won't be the inhibiting factor IMO. Not with how you can use modern spread concepts to create more advantageous throwing lanes or route combinations.....or simply just move the pocket more often.

On athletic tools alone, he's a 1st rounder to me.....that may be late 1st but assuming he's 100% committed to football, surely he would go in the 20-40 range purely on his athletic testing IMO. Guess we'll see.

Its just not an inch or two. He is 30lbs lighter and 4 inches shorter than Mayfield who is considered a small QB.

It is really going to be interesting because outliers like Brees, Mayfield and Wilson have been successful being an inch or two short, but this guy is Flutie sized and a full half foot shorter than prototypical.

Its like Allen Iverson vs Spud Webb. Iverson was short but still over 6', Spud was tiny. Spud competed at the pro level, but really no way he could have the sustained successful pro career of Iverson. (who ironically was the best QB in the country his Senior year in high school)

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I have always watched Brees career. He was very accurate at Purdue....

But Jackson was not very accurate at Louisville.

An accurate college QB may have a tough time initially in the pros because they have to get used to more pressure, and a faster game. But if/when they adjust to that, their natural, previously demonstrated accuracy should return.

But Jackson wasn't accurate even at a second-tier college program. So for him, it's not a question of returning to his accurate college form - it's acquiring (against much higher level of competition) a level of accuracy he's never had.

Sure, it's theoretically possible, but that's about it.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Its just not an inch or two. He is 30lbs lighter and 4 inches shorter than Mayfield who is considered a small QB.

It is really going to be interesting because outliers like Brees, Mayfield and Wilson have been successful being an inch or two short, but this guy is Flutie sized and a full half foot shorter than prototypical.

Its like Allen Iverson vs Spud Webb. Iverson was short but still over 6', Spud was tiny. Spud competed at the pro level, but really no way he could have the sustained successful pro career of Iverson. (who ironically was the best QB in the country his Senior year in high school)

Evolution moves thresholds down.

Wilson is 5'10" 5/8......Prior to him, who would have ever thought an All-Pro level QB could be that small?

As players get better, faster, more athletic, there will surely be someone who shaves another inch or two off that stereotype.

I don't know if that is Murray but not having an open mind on a prospect by prospect basis is what makes you lose out on someone who could shift that paradigm.

The NFL is more friendly than ever to QB's of all sizes.....and to me, Murray checks the three boxes you need in a mobile QB......the ability to accurately throw, enough of an arm to stretch the defense (or keep them honest to hold running lanes) and a knack for avoiding hits. I'd agree you don't go near anyone who lacks 1 of those 3 things, if he's smaller than you'd like......but if he can do those 3 things, paired with his athletic ability, those are the players you roll the dice on IMO.

I also don't think basketball analogies are good because Kyler doesn't play defense. Height, length and frame really matters in basketball because you are tasked with playing both disciplines.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Which happens...never.

It's not that receivers drop balls, or that he has poor anticipation or slow decision-making. It's just that the ball doesn't go where he's trying to throw it.

A lot of QBs improve on accuracy. It's just that you can only expect guys to improve so much. You can't expect a guy who completes 58% of his passes in college to ever be as accurate as a guy who completed 68%, but that doesn't mean he can't get into the low sixties.

 

[thedarkness2332]

Evolution moves thresholds down.

Wilson is 5'10" 5/8......Prior to him, who would have ever thought an All-Pro level QB could be that small?

As players get better, faster, more athletic, there will surely be someone who shaves another inch or two off that stereotype.

I don't know if that is Murray but not having an open mind on a prospect by prospect basis is what makes you lose out on someone who could shift that paradigm.

The NFL is more friendly than ever to QB's of all sizes.....and to me, Murray checks the three boxes you need in a mobile QB......the ability to accurately throw, enough of an arm to stretch the defense (or keep them honest to hold running lanes) and a knack for avoiding hits. I'd agree you don't go near anyone who lacks 1 of those 3 things, if he's smaller than you'd like......but if he can do those 3 things, paired with his athletic ability, those are the players you roll the dice on IMO.

I also don't think basketball analogies are good because Kyler doesn't play defense. Height, length and frame really matters in basketball because you are tasked with playing both disciplines.

I am much more concerned with Murray only being 180 lbs than I am with him being 5'9.

The guy is much smaller than Denzel Ward, and we're concerned about him with the few hits he's involved in per game.

Ward was also essentially injury-free in college.

 

[Lee]

Evolution moves thresholds down.

Wilson is 5'10" 5/8......Prior to him, who would have ever thought an All-Pro level QB could be that small?

As players get better, faster, more athletic, there will surely be someone who shaves another inch or two off that stereotype.

I don't know if that is Murray but not having an open mind on a prospect by prospect basis is what makes you lose out on someone who could shift that paradigm.

The NFL is more friendly than ever to QB's of all sizes.....and to me, Murray checks the three boxes you need in a mobile QB......the ability to accurately throw, enough of an arm to stretch the defense (or keep them honest to hold running lanes) and a knack for avoiding hits. I'd agree you don't go near anyone who lacks 1 of those 3 things, if he's smaller than you'd like......but if he can do those 3 things, paired with his athletic ability, those are the players you roll the dice on IMO.

I also don't think basketball analogies are good because Kyler doesn't play defense. Height, length and frame really matters in basketball because you are tasked with playing both disciplines.

Size is more than height, plus he has an adequate arm, but not true arm strength like Mayfield or even Brees in his prime.

I would be willing to draft him in the 2nd, I just wouldn't be the GM to take him in the first.

At some point size matters, we cant start having 5'3 tall Qb's and expect them to succeed even if they have Mugsy Bogues level of athletic ability.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Size is more than height, plus he has an adequate arm, but not true arm strength like Mayfield or even Brees in his prime.

I would be willing to draft him in the 2nd, I just wouldn't be the GM to take him in the first.

At some point size matters, we cant start having 5'3 tall Qb's and expect them to succeed even if they have Mugsy Bogues level of athletic ability.

Who is suggesting you should draft a 5’3” QB? Lots of exaggerating going on in here to frame arguments.

My point was there is no difference between he and Wilson if we are talking 5’10” vs 5’9”, for evaluation purposes. Scouts just don’t view things through the prizm many of you do. His height is not a positive but it’s also not disqualifying.

I also don’t think it matters he weighs 180 or close to it. He’s really good at protecting himself and sliding away from contact. Would it be nice if he weighed more? Sure but he’s not a beanpole. He’s well put together given his weight / height distribution.

I don’t love Murray but many of you are really underselling his mix of passing potential and athleticism.

 

[Lee]

Who is suggesting you should draft a 5’3” QB? Lots of exaggerating going on in here to frame arguments.

My point was there is no difference between he and Wilson if we are talking 5’10” vs 5’9”, for evaluation purposes. Scouts just don’t view things through the prizm many of you do. His height is not a positive but it’s also not disqualifying.

I also don’t think it matters he weighs 180 or close to it. He’s really good at protecting himself and sliding away from contact. Would it be nice if he weighed more? Sure but he’s not a beanpole. He’s well put together given his weight / height distribution.

I don’t love Murray but many of you are really underselling his mix of passing potential and athleticism.

My point is eventually there will be too short.

Russell Wilson measured at 5'11 and 205lbs, Kyler is being talked about maybe 5'9 and 185lbs.

I am not saying its everything, but 20lbs and 2 inches will matter. almost 4 inches and 30lbs from Baker. It will be interesting to see his measurables at the combine.

 

[howler1313]

I forgot where I heard this, maybe Kevin Clark from the Ringer, but he was talking in a pod about how someone predicted that in this spread era where short passes to playmakers into space are emphasized, baseball shortstop types will become the new prototype instead of tall, statuesque passers. Guys who can break the pocket and make plays on the run, deliver the ball accurately and quickly from multiple platforms/throwing angles, etc. You're seeing it a bit with Mahomes and Mayfield.

Now does this apply to Murray and is he approaching being too small where nothing else matters? No clue, but I thought it was an interesting point.

 

[I'mWithDan]

My point is eventually there will be too short.

Russell Wilson measured at 5'11 and 205lbs, Kyler is being talked about maybe 5'9 and 185lbs.

I am not saying its everything, but 20lbs and 2 inches will matter. almost 4 inches and 30lbs from Baker. It will be interesting to see his measurables at the combine.

We don't know what Kyler for sure weighs or measures at. Wilson's official measurement was also 5'10 5/8". So he wasn't officially 5'11". I'm not here to quibble over 3/8 of an inch but he is shorter than 5'11", which everyone keeps saying. You also don't notice much of a difference if you look at pictures of he and Baker next to each other and no one will ever convince me that an inch or two of eye level matters at all.......to me, it's a cop out to generalize prospects that way....."Oh, that guy was just too short". It is oversimplifying the evaluation process that is far more complicated than a single physical measurement.....especially considering the success of guys like Wilson, Brees, Baker, etc. who have succeeded at a below average height.

Certainly there are varying degrees of short but if people subscribe to the theory that Murray can't see over his lineman and that is why you shouldn't draft him, there is literally zero chance Wilson can either (if that is your stance).......and he has succeeded anyway. Every short person will not succeed but Wilson has removed the stereotype that nobody can succeed.

Now scouts need to decide if someone in the same ballpark can succeed with a lesser but adequate arm but as a far more dynamic runner. Again, I don't love Murray but people are too polarized about him already. We haven't even seen what he is measured at, how his arm looks in throwing drills (and measured velocity), how he tests athletically, etc. He has tape that most will like and people should reserve final judgement on him until the combine / pro day, when he is stacked up physically. At this point, most are just guessing what his exact physical profile is.


Edit: I just saw this


So if that is true, he's less than an inch shorter than Wilson. Whatever that is worth to people.

 

[Phills14]

So if that is true, he's less than an inch shorter than Wilson.

Russell Wilson measured 5'10 5/8th at the combine, 204lbs and a 31" arm.
Murray from what we know is 5'9 7/8th 180 lbs. Arm length tbd