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Magic Number - 1 for Division ... Minni Eliminated ... Our Elimination of #2 seed is 2

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Remember, now that we have the 1 win vs Twins, the rest is gravy as these projections was based on us going 2-7 vs both Chi and Twins -- Sox need to be 11-6 (2-1 going into Det) and 1-3 vs us. But, need 3 more wins this weeked (if we don't win in Chic next week) to get back on track as 1- don't beat Chi, 1 Tie breaker and 1 - us giving Sox a loss.
 
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So with Sox being 74-71 and us being 77-66, what are the 2 scenarios?

Lose all 3 to Sox (who are 4GB - thus lose 3 only 1 GB but with Chic gettting tie breaker)

Cle - 77-69 w 3 losses + with 16 other games (say 8-8 split) = 85-77
Chi - 77-71 w 3 wins + say (7-7 split) = 84-78

Thus, Chi going 8-6 can tie us at 85 if we split 7-7 (Minni (4), Tex (3), Tampa (3) and KC(6)) and thus they get the division

A win against the Sox will be huge because at 86-76 going 1-2 vs Chi means they need to be 11-3 vs others to be 87-75 to beat us. (Difference in doable 8-6 for Sox and 11-3 is us having is that 3 game magic num for just 1 game).

Current Playoff Chance = 83.8% (almost back to where it was yesterday before the game) - And a win vs Chi yesterday would have all but sealed it (put us at around 93%+.

Note - Our chances of winning 1 of 3 in Chicago based on 50/50 odds are 87.5% and being on road is less. Note, how similar to 83.8% it is! Win and in. Lose and it is a slug fest between us and Chicago on who gets most wins w/ Chicago having tie-breaker advantage.

Edit -- 538 has us at 87% ... with Cease 59% over ????? being Civale, Lynn 53% over McK and Giolito 47% over Bieber -- Based on these odds, Cle winning at least one (not losing all 3) is 85%.

Now, the other question of why do we have a 85% chance of beating Chicago and wrapping up division but only 87% chance win or lose in Chicago ... do we only have a 2% chance if we lose all 3. NO. Sorry for those hung over and my using math/stats, but lets say we have really 93% chance if we beat Chicago of winning, the math is

85% (beating Chic) X 93% + 15% (being swept by Chicago) * Y (chance of winning division if swept) = 87% overall of winning division

In this made-up scenario (93% chance of winning div with 1 Chicago win), our chance of winning div with being swept is around 53% as being 1 game up (current 4 GB - 3 game sweep) means we need to equal or beat the # of overall Chicago wins in the other non-head2head games. But Chicago does have an advantage of tie breaker and Minni being a wounded tiger that may be licking its wounds/injuries with nothing to fight for.

This is why many were adamant to try to get the 1 game Vs Chicago over giving up a game or even 2 vs Minni. 1 game over Chicago puts us a near lock to win the division (93%+ less a total collapse vs KC and Texas) - a sweep in Chicago only leaves us around 53/47 odds.
 
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So with Sox being 74-71 and us being 77-66, what are the 2 scenarios?

Lose all 3 to Sox (who are 4GB - thus lose 3 only 1 GB but with Chic gettting tie breaker)

Cle - 77-69 w 3 losses + with 16 other games (say 8-8 split) = 85-77
Chi - 77-71 w 3 wins + say (7-7 split) = 84-78

Thus, Chi going 8-6 can tie us at 85 if we split 7-7 (Minni (4), Tex (3), Tampa (3) and KC(6)) and thus they get the division

A win against the Sox will be huge because at 86-76 going 1-2 vs Chi means they need to be 11-3 vs others to be 87-75 to beat us. (Difference in doable 8-6 for Sox and 11-3 is us having is that 3 game magic num for just 1 game).

Current Playoff Chance = 83.8% (almost back to where it was yesterday before the game) - And a win vs Chi yesterday would have all but sealed it (put us at around 93%+.

Note - Our chances of winning 1 of 3 in Chicago based on 50/50 odds are 87.5% and being on road is less. Note, how similar to 83.8% it is! Win and in. Lose and it is a slug fest between us and Chicago on who gets most wins w/ Chicago having tie-breaker advantage.

Edit -- 538 has us at 87% ... with Cease 59% over ????? being Civale, Lynn 53% over McK and Giolito 47% over Bieber -- Based on these odds, Cle winning at least one (not losing all 3) is 85%.

Now, the other question of why do we have a 85% chance of beating Chicago and wrapping up division but only 87% chance win or lose in Chicago ... do we only have a 2% chance if we lose all 3. NO. Sorry for those hung over and my using math/stats, but lets say we have really 93% chance if we beat Chicago of winning, the math is

85% (beating Chic) X 93% + 15% (being swept by Chicago) * Y (chance of winning division if swept) = 87% overall of winning division

In this made-up scenario (93% chance of winning div with 1 Chicago win), our chance of winning div with being swept is around 53% as being 1 game up (current 4 GB - 3 game sweep) means we need to equal or beat the # of overall Chicago wins in the other non-head2head games. But Chicago does have an advantage of tie breaker and Minni being a wounded tiger that may be licking its wounds/injuries with nothing to fight for.

This is why many were adamant to try to get the 1 game Vs Chicago over giving up a game or even 2 vs Minni. 1 game over Chicago puts us a near lock to win the division (93%+ less a total collapse vs KC and Texas) - a sweep in Chicago only leaves us around 53/47 odds.

drooling-slobber.gif
 
Cliff notes for math impared,

4 games up on Chicago,
If they sweep us, we need to win at least or more then them rest if way in other games

If we win 1, and go 500 record from us in other games, means they got to go at least 11-3 to beat us.

Sorry for trying to show how it works
Don't apologize for the math. It's good work and it's appreciated
 

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