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Magic Number - 1 for Division ... Minni Eliminated ... Our Elimination of #2 seed is 2

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I'm just happy that I dont have to watch some combination of Morris-Gaddis-Pilkington start three games in a little over 24 hours and our pen get fried before we get to Chicago.
 
So with Sox being 74-71 and us being 77-66, what are the 2 scenarios?

Lose all 3 to Sox (who are 4GB - thus lose 3 only 1 GB but with Chic gettting tie breaker)

Cle - 77-69 w 3 losses + with 16 other games (say 8-8 split) = 85-77
Chi - 77-71 w 3 wins + say (7-7 split) = 84-78

Thus, Chi going 8-6 can tie us at 85 if we split 7-7 (Minni (4), Tex (3), Tampa (3) and KC(6)) and thus they get the division

A win against the Sox will be huge because at 86-76 going 1-2 vs Chi means they need to be 11-3 vs others to be 87-75 to beat us. (Difference in doable 8-6 for Sox and 11-3 is us having is that 3 game magic num for just 1 game).

Current Playoff Chance = 83.8% (almost back to where it was yesterday before the game) - And a win vs Chi yesterday would have all but sealed it (put us at around 93%+.

Note - Our chances of winning 1 of 3 in Chicago based on 50/50 odds are 87.5% and being on road is less. Note, how similar to 83.8% it is! Win and in. Lose and it is a slug fest between us and Chicago on who gets most wins w/ Chicago having tie-breaker advantage.

Edit -- 538 has us at 87% ... with Cease 59% over ????? being Civale, Lynn 53% over McK and Giolito 47% over Bieber -- Based on these odds, Cle winning at least one (not losing all 3) is 85%.

Now, the other question of why do we have a 85% chance of beating Chicago and wrapping up division but only 87% chance win or lose in Chicago ... do we only have a 2% chance if we lose all 3. NO. Sorry for those hung over and my using math/stats, but lets say we have really 93% chance if we beat Chicago of winning, the math is

85% (beating Chic) X 93% + 15% (being swept by Chicago) * Y (chance of winning division if swept) = 87% overall of winning division

In this made-up scenario (93% chance of winning div with 1 Chicago win), our chance of winning div with being swept is around 53% as being 1 game up (current 4 GB - 3 game sweep) means we need to equal or beat the # of overall Chicago wins in the other non-head2head games. But Chicago does have an advantage of tie breaker and Minni being a wounded tiger that may be licking its wounds/injuries with nothing to fight for.

This is why many were adamant to try to get the 1 game Vs Chicago over giving up a game or even 2 vs Minni. 1 game over Chicago puts us a near lock to win the division (93%+ less a total collapse vs KC and Texas) - a sweep in Chicago only leaves us around 53/47 odds.
@petes999 your math is wrong well G's record. it should be G's need to go 8-8 the rest of the way for Chicago to go 8-6 (if WSox sweep G's)
It matters as it's an additional win versus the 7-7. G's should be able to take 6 from KC/Tex (no problem) but means still need another 2 wins with 4 against twins and 3 against TB. If G's were to sweep today if really starts to put some pressure on the Sox
 
Essentially any wins against Chicago go a long way to clinching. Any unsuspecting losses by Chicago close their narrow window
 
Come on Straw, turn on one here and put it in the LF corner!!

EDIT. Close enough :)
 
This Sanchez guy is incredibly slow looking to the plate
 
14 hits in game 1. That never bodes well for game 2. Some guy named Frankelheimer will 1 hit us in his one and only ML appearance
 
@petes999 your math is wrong well G's record. it should be G's need to go 8-8 the rest of the way for Chicago to go 8-6 (if WSox sweep G's)
It matters as it's an additional win versus the 7-7. G's should be able to take 6 from KC/Tex (no problem) but means still need another 2 wins with 4 against twins and 3 against TB. If G's were to sweep today if really starts to put some pressure on the Sox

Sorry, I think we are saying same thing though. I just had too many #s as I was trying to do this at 3 am in the morning and got long winded. But as of this morning (77-66 us and 74-71 4 GB for Chi), was just wondering if we both went 500 vs non-head2head games and got swept by them (worst case scenario) that we still end up 1 game up 85-77 (8-8 + 0-3 on our 77-66 record) for us and 84-78 them (7-7 + 3-0). Thus, we are one game ahead and win division (as long as we get more wins then them in non-head2head (with DH and Monday for 16 games for us vs their 14).

If they went 8-6 vs our 8-8 (win just as many), then we tie but Chi has tie-breaker and wins the division.

Then I tried to show that with 1 win vs them that 8-6 needed to beat us become 11-3 (the 3 game swing) -- almost impossible for them vs Twins and Padres to beat us in the division.

Thanks for checking ... need to clean it all up after tonight as things need to be simplified.
 
I updated the front main post to show up to day #s and what other teams need if we go 500 ball (vs Non-Chi) and swept by Chicago ... Sorry for all the confusion today.
 
Just wait u til next weekend and the math will be a lot easier
 
jackie-chan-wtf.jpg
 
Cliff notes for math impared,

4 games up on Chicago,
If they sweep us, we need to win at least or more then them rest if way in other games

If we win 1, and go 500 record from us in other games, means they got to go at least 11-3 to beat us.

Sorry for trying to show how it works
I’m not really math impaired; but thank you. I was just joking around. Your post and typical posts are excellent. Should’ve made my intent more clear.
 
I’m not really math impaired; but thank you. I was just joking around. Your post and typical posts are excellent. Should’ve made my intent more clear.

I didn't take offense ... just was running out the door when I posted and tried to write a quick cliff note version as I said earlier knew I was too wordy at 4 am when I was thinking about it.
 
I didn't take offense ... just was running out the door when I posted and tried to write a quick cliff note version as I said earlier knew I was too wordy at 4 am when I was thinking about it.

I think my issue was I construed you response in a “talk down” tone.
 

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