Makeup game versus White Sox | Sep. 15, 2022

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The White Sox come to the Prog for a makeup game at 1:10 p.m. The Guardians lead the season series 9-6 with four games to go and they lead the Sox by four games in the standings. The Guardians have won six straight and 8 of 9. The White Sox have won 10 of 14. Two very hot teams fighting for probably one playoff spot.

The Sox will go with Lance Lynn, the 35-year-old right-hander, who has allowed ten runs in his last seven starts. In his last two starts against the Guardians Lynn has pitched 11.1 innings and allowed one earned run. After missing a good chunk of the season to an injury he has got himself back to full power and is dominating hitters, especially in his last five starts where he allowed just three runs.

The Guardians will counter with Hunter Gaddis, who got pounded for 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings by Houston in his first big league appearance. This will be his second. Gaddis has a 4.15 ERA in Columbus and Akron this year.

On paper it looks like the Guardians are conceding this game. For reasons unknown they are pushing McKenzie back to start on six days rest against the Twins Friday.

But I thought they had no chance going with Pilkington and Morris against really good Angels' lefties and we saw how that turned out.

If the White Sox don't win this game it would be a backbreaking loss. I think they need this a lot more than we do.

 

[DCTribefan]

Chisox expect Guardians to crumble; match Lyon with Guardians AAA call up, per Chicago Sun-Times.

The Sox trail Cleveland by five in the loss column and with three games next week against them at home, they might have to win all four to win the division. The Guardians, who resisted the Sox’ recent surge with one of their own, have the advantage of closing the season with six games at home against the Royals and will likely have the tiebreaker over the Sox.



“They’ve been playing perfect until now,” shortstop Elvis Andrus said. “If we keep winning series, we know that sooner or later they’re going to crumble, the closer we get. Tomorrow’s going to be a really good game for us to go out there and [make] a statement.”

While Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie was pushed ahead to start Cleveland’s series opener against the Twins on Friday, the Sox moved Lucas Giolito to face the Tigers Friday to allow Lance Lynn to face the Guardians.

“Lance is one of our horses and has been pitching really well,” Cairo said. “I think that’s the best matchup for them.”

 

[petes999]

But it still astonishes me that ESPN gamecast has us as a 62% chance of winning tomorrow with Gaddis. 538 has us at 45% of winning game tomorrow and 85% of playoffs

White Sox 8-2 Guardians (Sep 15, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB game, final score 8-2, from September 15, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

This shows you how sometimes the probability of us winning the division of 82.3% per ESPN is based on garbage. The old garbage in-garbage out motto.

I agree a loss tomorrow by Sox would have been a back-breaker as we gained 2 unexpected magic number reductions by their loss to Rockies and our sweep of Angels. Tomorrow win would have been (could be) 5 points of the 20 we needed going into today by tomorrow afternoon. You would have been talking about us needing only 10 wins out of last 19 games and 5 White sox losses out of their last 18 for that magical 15 number.

EDIT -- But, people will say ... but the bullpen and usage. Going Gaddis vs Lynn is almost 75/25% loss chance in my mind (kind of giving game away). If I could have flipped it to 75/25 win for 3 points tomorrow, I would have given up a possible 1 point in 2nd Game DH on Saturday to Twins by telling Gaddis and McCarty to go out and throw till your arms fall off (even if you give up 30 runs) and then if needed finish the game with Clement/Shaw. In this scenario, you only needed the bullpen Sat for Pilk and Sun for Morris. Now you need pen Thurs for Gaddis, Sat for Pilk and Sun for Morris. Did we really relieve that much pressure from the pen?

It is just who you give up a game to Chicago or Twins? Who do you choose?

And, if Clase is your star of the pen (the one you want to work around and make a good plan). He was off today for rest. He would have been good tomorrow (if McK got you close) but you are going rest him now for 2nd day. But, you kind of wasted a potential day of use for him. The other 3 of Stephan, Kar and Hentges -- I worry less about as you can juggle the 3 to work 2 innings each day (2 go back-to-back and other gets day off rotation kind of).

 

[Criznit]

Chisox expect Guardians to crumble; match Lyon with Guardians AAA call up, per Chicago Sun-Times.

The Sox trail Cleveland by five in the loss column and with three games next week against them at home, they might have to win all four to win the division. The Guardians, who resisted the Sox’ recent surge with one of their own, have the advantage of closing the season with six games at home against the Royals and will likely have the tiebreaker over the Sox.



“They’ve been playing perfect until now,” shortstop Elvis Andrus said. “If we keep winning series, we know that sooner or later they’re going to crumble, the closer we get. Tomorrow’s going to be a really good game for us to go out there and [make] a statement.”

While Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie was pushed ahead to start Cleveland’s series opener against the Twins on Friday, the Sox moved Lucas Giolito to face the Tigers Friday to allow Lance Lynn to face the Guardians.

“Lance is one of our horses and has been pitching really well,” Cairo said. “I think that’s the best matchup for them.”

Trade deadline acquisition talking trash...

They're scared.

EDIT. I thought Andrus was a cheap trade, but he was signed as a MLB FA on Aug 18 after being released by the A's the day before. My bad.

 

[Lee]

So i did the math, by skipping tomorrow, it allows our 3 games series in Chicago next week to be Tristan, Bieber and Qunitrill, we would of missed one if we didnt skip, so it does make sense, setting up next weeks series.

I am done complaining, lol

 

[petes999]

So i did the math, by skipping tomorrow, it allows our 3 games series in Chicago next week to be Tristan, Bieber and Qunitrill, we would of missed one if we didnt skip, so it does make sense, setting up next weeks series.

I am done complaining, lol

They are throwing Quant on Monday and Civale on Tuesday per my rotation plan and what pluto also wrote about today.

Fri - McK Sat - Bieber/Pilk Sun - Morris Mon - Quant Tues - Civale Wed - Mck Thurs - Bieber (this is off 5 days rest model).

 

[Real Deal]

Elvis owns our ballpark but come on now lol

 

[eChameleon]

You just know if the Sox win tomorrow he's going to be mean mugging the camera with that "that's right motherfuckers" look on his face.

 

[Anglefan]

But it still astonishes me that ESPN gamecast has us as a 62% chance of winning tomorrow with Gaddis. 538 has us at 45% of winning game tomorrow and 85% of playoffs

White Sox 8-2 Guardians (Sep 15, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB game, final score 8-2, from September 15, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

This shows you how sometimes the probability of us winning the division of 82.3% per ESPN is based on garbage. The old garbage in-garbage out motto.

I agree a loss tomorrow by Sox would have been a back-breaker as we gained 2 unexpected magic number reductions by their loss to Rockies and our sweep of Angels. Tomorrow win would have been (could be) 5 points of the 20 we needed going into today by tomorrow afternoon. You would have been talking about us needing only 10 wins out of last 19 games and 5 White sox losses out of their last 18 for that magical 15 number.

EDIT -- But, people will say ... but the bullpen and usage. Going Gaddis vs Lynn is almost 75/25% loss chance in my mind (kind of giving game away). If I could have flipped it to 75/25 win for 3 points tomorrow, I would have given up a possible 1 point in 2nd Game DH on Saturday to Twins by telling Gaddis and McCarty to go out and throw till your arms fall off (even if you give up 30 runs) and then if needed finish the game with Clement/Shaw. In this scenario, you only needed the bullpen Sat for Pilk and Sun for Morris. Now you need pen Thurs for Gaddis, Sat for Pilk and Sun for Morris. Did we really relieve that much pressure from the pen?

It is just who you give up a game to Chicago or Twins? Who do you choose?

And, if Clase is your star of the pen (the one you want to work around and make a good plan). He was off today for rest. He would have been good tomorrow (if McK got you close) but you are going rest him now for 2nd day. But, you kind of wasted a potential day of use for him. The other 3 of Stephan, Kar and Hentges -- I worry less about as you can juggle the 3 to work 2 innings each day (2 go back-to-back and other gets day off rotation kind of).

The idea that either of these teams is 75/25 to beat the other regardless of who starts is asinine. The two teams have winning percentages of .539 and .510. They are -155 to win tomorrow, which is 61% implied probability. Tristan starting puts the odds closer to even money. It’s not a big enough difference to take the risk of being only three games up and now facing the prospect of three consecutive starts by rookies and having to juggle the bullpen. Things can start to slip away real quick.

 

[thestatman]

So i did the math, by skipping tomorrow, it allows our 3 games series in Chicago next week to be Tristan, Bieber and Qunitrill, we would of missed one if we didnt skip, so it does make sense, setting up next weeks series.

I am done complaining, lol

Actually no. Unless you want Bieber and Tristan to pitch on 3 days rest. The plan is Q, then Civale then Tristen. Bieber will not pitch in Chicago.

 

[thestatman]

Was planning on going to just my second game tomorrow but have changed my mind. Not going down there to watch a minor league pitcher with mediocre triple A numbers. No reason not to give the red hot and consistant Tanner Bibee a shot. Roster spots could have been easily juggled.

 

[thestatman]

The idea that either of these teams is 75/25 to beat the other regardless of who starts is asinine. The two teams have winning percentages of .539 and .510. They are -155 to win tomorrow, which is 61% implied probability. Tristan starting puts the odds closer to even money. It’s not a big enough difference to take the risk of being only three games up and now facing the prospect of three consecutive starts by rookies and having to juggle the bullpen. Things can start to slip away real quick.

LOL no. McKenzie would not be even money. McKenzie would be Cleveland minus 150 or so. Cleveland is the better team. at home with a better starting pitcher and a better bullpen.

 

[Anglefan]

LOL no. McKenzie would not be even money. McKenzie would be Cleveland minus 150 or so. Cleveland is the better team. at home with a better starting pitcher and a better bullpen.

It wouldn’t be -150, but as I just said, even in that scenario you’re a 60% favorite. Meaning you win 3 in 5 times. It’s a big bet to make for something that has such a potential downside in the days following for not that huge of an increase in upside.

We have a .539 win percentage, they have a .510. Their starting pitcher is incredibly hot and has pitched very well against us. There’s no scenario where we’re a 60% favorite in this game against Lynn no matter who is on the mound.

This is clearly a very carefully thought out decision by our front office. In order to be so vehemently against it, you have to believe that you know better than they do. What reason do you have to believe that?

 

[petes999]

News flash -- 92.3 FAN is dead air this morning and radio pundits (including Glenn Beck) are out of jobs as every armchair quarterback and backseat driver realized the error of their ways. No more sense questioning Tito/Chris/Berry and Watson/Brisset decisions. Women rejoice as the last remaining men (who didn't know better), finally learned that they are wrong and the wife is always right and went to get the balls cut off. I am still hiding from the padded wagon from earlier today (see Angels game day thread)... but had to stop at home to get an ice pack as you know what is just a little sore. But, at least I am 2 pounds lighter, able to outrun the guys in white jackets better, after I got my no longer needed body parts removed that were hanging too low anyways in my old age.

(Hope no one is taking offense ... just thought a little sarcasm and humor in these 2 game threads would get at a laugh or two on what may be a long afternoon)

 

[CATS44]

The one thing that had to be avoided was three rookie starters in 28 hours...which very well could have meant either...

1) Virtually ceding three games, or...

2) Blowing the entire pen out of the water.

With a five game lead in the loss column and one win away vs both teams from holding both tie breakers, I'm comfortable with the decisions made.

When you have the lead in the fourth quarter, grab your ass and hold on - Paul Brown.

That's the mode we are in right now.