Mike Pence is Coronavirus czar, clearly not a Modello guy, and other politics discussion related to the virus

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Is Trump Taking Corona Seriously?

  • Yes!

    Votes: 17 20.5%
  • Nah, bro.

    Votes: 34 41.0%
  • Bah! Such Hand-Wringing Over Something No Worse Than the Flu!

    Votes: 5 6.0%
  • We Need to do a Lot More. Just in Case.

    Votes: 21 25.3%
  • Only the Blood of Virgins Will Shield Us From This Pestilence!

    Votes: 6 7.2%

  • Total voters
    83

JDailey23

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The 0-17 is clearly just not being tested too. I would be surprised if the cases weren't more evenly distributed through out the age demographics if we had wide spread testing. Even if the older demographics are sheltering in place and limiting their exposure, they would also be less likely to give blood or get randomly tested if they were asymptomatic or had a very mild symptoms that they thought was a cold or the flu.
No way. They are testing, but the under 40 crowd just aren’t showing any real signs. This is affecting most people the same way as the flu and people who may show signs, just do what they always do. Lay around, take some meds, some vitamins and let it run it’s course. This entire thing has been way over dramatized.
Yes, it’s real.
Yes, it has killed a lot of people
But let’s not act like it’s Polio or the Spanish Flu.
The models were embarrassingly wrong, but I also think they were counting on it. The entire country was flipped upside down. Was a major power play and it will have ended up doing what no one else was able to do.
 

ACisKING

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No way. They are testing, but the under 40 crowd just aren’t showing any real signs. This is affecting most people the same way as the flu and people who may show signs, just do what they always do. Lay around, take some meds, some vitamins and let it run it’s course. This entire thing has been way over dramatized.
Yes, it’s real.
Yes, it has killed a lot of people
But let’s not act like it’s Polio or the Spanish Flu.
The models were embarrassingly wrong, but I also think they were counting on it. The entire country was flipped upside down. Was a major power play and it will have ended up doing what no one else was able to do.
A major power play by who exactly? It was doctors and scientists from Trump’s own administration that were at the forefront of emphasizing the need to shut down. And what about the rest of the world - all of which has also shut down? Were they in on this grand conspiracy too?

And how is it overblown? Remember when Trump himself said two months ago that he would have done an incredible job by keeping the number of American deaths to under 100,000 by the end of the year? Well America is on pace to pass 100,000 deaths by the end of this week. And that’s with a shutdown greatly limiting exposure. What would the numbers have been without a shutdown?
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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So, it appears that a ton of states are under-reporting COVID deaths, based on pneumonia deaths that are orders of magnitude higher than yearly statistical averages.

If this is oversight, or explained away because they can't waste COVID tests on a dead person when they can be better used testing living people, then fine. But if this is politically motivated, or intentionally done to deceive the public, these people need to be held accountable.

According to the CDC, Florida has had 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from Pneumonia. If you average the number of Pneumonia deaths that occurred during a peak three-month period (from Jan through March) from 2013 to 2018, you get 1,210. That just doesn't line up.

Here are current death totals: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Here are the historical ones: https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

The article that inspired me: https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...navirus-could-be-even-more-deadly/5245237002/

Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal:
* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)
 
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-Akronite-

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The models were embarrassingly wrong
Models are not prediction machines, they are projections that can be used to help us establish policy. There are also lots of different models using differing methodology, so there's usually gonna be some that are well off the mark. And yet, every single model was more accurate than Donald Trump, who claimed COVID would disappear like magic, bragged that it was well contained, and told us that our 15 or so cases would soon be zero at the start of this.

But sure, this botched COVID response that let more than 100,000 people die already while our economy imploded was actually a clever power play by... our nation's health officials? The Democrats? The virus itself?
 

Zeus69

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A major power play by who exactly? It was doctors and scientists from Trump’s own administration that were at the forefront of emphasizing the need to shut down. And what about the rest of the world - all of which has also shut down? Were they in on this grand conspiracy too?

And how is it overblown? Remember when Trump himself said two months ago that he would have done an incredible job by keeping the number of American deaths to under 100,000 by the end of the year? Well America is on pace to pass 100,000 deaths by the end of this week. And that’s with a shutdown greatly limiting exposure. What would the numbers have been without a shutdown?
I admire you for going down that rabbit hole, AC...
 

Man Called X

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Models are not prediction machines, they are projections that can be used to help us establish policy. There are also lots of different models using differing methodology, so there's usually gonna be some that are well off the mark. And yet, every single model was more accurate than Donald Trump, who claimed COVID would disappear like magic, bragged that it was well contained, and told us that our 15 or so cases would soon be zero at the start of this.

But sure, this botched COVID response that let more than 100,000 people die already while our economy imploded was actually a clever power play by... our nation's health officials? The Democrats? The virus itself?
Belongs in the batshit thread, but the correct answer is the new world order duh.
 

Bob_The_Cat

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Most models were created using "life as normal" as the control. They weren't predicting two million deaths when utilizing quarantines, social distancing, and other methods have been taken.
 

inliner311

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Ohio cases holding steady with the numbers DeWine released today. Great news, hopefully people can keep using caution and limit exposure to others
I've been keeping an eye more on current hospitalizations than case numbers. Testing in Ohio isn't open to everyone and they are doing alot of targeted testing of nursing homes or possible outbreaks. There is also alot of testing and retesting of health care workers by the hospitals. The case count seems to stay consistent but the positive rate per day varies greatly.

Current hospitalizations were going down last week and got down to the low 800's but it's up to 937 today. Also even though Dewine had said they would be up to 26000 tests per day by the end of the month, we are around 8k a day for the last couple weeks.

I think the best data is looking up both worldometers and Covidtracking.com
 

The Wizard of Moz

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Models are not prediction machines, they are projections that can be used to help us establish policy. There are also lots of different models using differing methodology, so there's usually gonna be some that are well off the mark. And yet, every single model was more accurate than Donald Trump, who claimed COVID would disappear like magic, bragged that it was well contained, and told us that our 15 or so cases would soon be zero at the start of this.

But sure, this botched COVID response that let more than 100,000 people die already while our economy imploded was actually a clever power play by... our nation's health officials? The Democrats? The virus itself?
Actually audibly laughed out loud at the power play by the virus itself
 

Sebastian

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Actually audibly laughed out loud at the power play by the virus itself
The Flu never did this! The Flu is merely passive aggressive.

Damn! Everyone really is out for Trump.
 

Bob_The_Cat

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So, it appears that a ton of states are under-reporting COVID deaths, based on pneumonia deaths that are orders of magnitude higher than yearly statistical averages.

If this is oversight, or explained away because they can't waste COVID tests on a dead person when they can be better used testing living people, then fine. But if this is politically motivated, or intentionally done to deceive the public, these people need to be held accountable.

According to the CDC, Florida has had 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from Pneumonia. If you average the number of Pneumonia deaths that occurred during a peak three-month period (from Jan through March) from 2013 to 2018, you get 1,210. That just doesn't line up.

Here are current death totals: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Here are the historical ones: https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

The article that inspired me: https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...navirus-could-be-even-more-deadly/5245237002/
Correct. Something definitely doesn’t add as the TOTAL number of pneumonia deaths in 2019 in the US was 47,000, and according to these numbers it’s more than double in only 3.5 months, AND there’s an additional 75,000 deaths from a new respiratory virus.

Even if you removed the full 47,000 (2019’s number) from the 98,000 reported this year, there are just magically an additional 51,000 new pneumonia deaths. If you only applied even half of those to Covid, that’s over 100,000 deaths in 3.5 months when there were quarantines and lock downs.

My guess is you could probably attribute 50,000 of those pneumonia deaths to Covid and still have that be a conservative number.

The one other thing that could be happening is Covid is being classified as pneumonia and Covid, though it appears they are being counted separately from all the stats I see.
 
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The Wizard of Moz

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Correct. Something definitely doesn’t add as the TOTAL number of pneumonia deaths in 2019 in the US was 47,000, and according to these numbers it’s more than double in only 3.5 months, AND there’s an additional 75,000 deaths from a new respiratory virus.

Even if you removed the full 47,000 (2019’s number) from the 98,000 reported this year, there are just magically an additional 51,000 new pneumonia deaths. If you only applied even half of those to Covid, that’s over 100,000 deaths in 3.5 months when there were quarantines and lock downs.

My guess is you could probably attribute 50,000 of those pneumonia deaths to Covid and still have that be a conservative number.
Worldometers had us pass 100K yesterday. What source are you using?
 

cavsfan1985

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Worldometers had us pass 100K yesterday. What source are you using?
I think that there are death numbers that are under and over reported. If you want use Phnemoia deaths as a measurement to show there could be more Coronavirus deaths, then you also have to start applying that to other areas. When we look at dealths from Cancer, Heart Disease, etc, how do those look? Are they around the same year over year, or have they gone down or up.
 

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