Mike Pence is Coronavirus czar, clearly not a Modello guy, and other politics discussion related to the virus

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

How Has President Trump Handled the COVID Crisis?

  • He gave a powerful, dominant response. COVID is defeated.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yeah, he made some mistakes, but on the balance he did well.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3.6 Roentgens. Not bad, not great.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Trump did not help things and could have done better.

    Votes: 1 10.0%
  • Trump's response was an utter disaster and catastrophic in lives and treasure.

    Votes: 9 90.0%
  • Who cares. We all deserve to die.

    Votes: 1 10.0%
  • Maine Coon would have done better.

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Total voters
    10
  • This poll will close: .

Zeus69

Secular Humanist
Joined
Jul 12, 2010
Messages
2,918
Reaction score
3,207
Points
101
Was talking with a friend who’s an epidemiologist. Can’t summarize it all, some was over my head (parts about population resistance and herd immunity at lower levels than for vaccines) :chuckle:.

But comparing NY and AZ numbers is interesting. And this despite wide protests in NYC a month ago.

New York (cases and deaths):

A7C6835A-1F77-4619-9EF1-F623B248A5E5.jpeg
1737AB34-172D-4F94-9524-686BD0F0349D.jpeg


Arizona (cases and deaths):

E02C200F-953E-4881-AD82-AC0D93649848.jpeg
C96E6B92-E920-49EE-80D1-20EA992EBA72.jpeg

It may be that a lot of places shot their load too early in terms of locking down. Staying inside before it starts raining will keep you dry but doesn't mean that it won't start raining later on, forcing you to shelter further. The wave that passed through NY, NJ, and the Northeast two months ago hit the low hanging fruit and people either got better or died. Large case/death peaks with subsequent declines.

Places that weren't hit then are getting hit now and could go through what NYC, Milan, London and other cities went through. However, because they are not as crowded and congested it is likely they will take longer to peak and longer to come down from that peak. Arizona (or Florida) may be where New York was back in early April and just getting ramped up now....all part of the first wave.
 
Last edited:

Sebastian

Maréchal d'Empire (AKA King Stannis)
Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jul 12, 2014
Messages
16,060
Reaction score
23,752
Points
135
Was talking with a friend who’s an epidemiologist. Can’t summarize it all, some was over my head (parts about population resistance and herd immunity at lower levels than for vaccines) :chuckle:.

But comparing NY and AZ numbers is interesting. And this despite wide protests in NYC a month ago.

New York (cases and deaths):

View attachment 3747
View attachment 3748


Arizona (cases and deaths):

View attachment 3749
View attachment 3750

It may be that a lot of places shot their load too early in terms of locking down. Staying inside before it starts raining will keep you dry but doesn't mean that it won't start raining later on, forcing you to shelter further. The wave that passed through NY, NJ, and the Northeast two months ago hit the low hanging fruit and people either got better or died. Large case/death peaks with subsequent declines.

Places that weren't hit then are getting hit now and could go through what NYC, Milan, London and other cities went through. However, because they are not as crowded and congested it is likely they will take longer to peak and longer to come down from that peak. Arizona (or Florida) may be where New York was back in early April and just getting ramped up now....all part of the first wave.
Seems more of a plateau.

What is a nautical equivalent?

Like endless tsunami?
 

Kiddo

NBA Starter
Joined
Aug 13, 2008
Messages
5,047
Reaction score
2,993
Points
113
To dovetail of @Zeus69 post a while ago, there are many after-effects of COVID that are not well understood.

For example, after two months of recovery my memory is really still shitty. I normally have a fantastic memory which has allowed me to utterly dominate bar trivia for decades.

But now, if I don't write every little thing down during meetings I cannot remember a fucking thing. My ability to work has been severely compromised. It takes me three times as long to get tasks done because I cannot remember how to do things, and must consult manuals, SOPs, and written reference stuff. If I can remember where I stored that stuff....
Maybe you’ve talked about this already... Did you lose your sense of smell? If so did you get it back?
 

Kiddo

NBA Starter
Joined
Aug 13, 2008
Messages
5,047
Reaction score
2,993
Points
113
The only stats that matter are deaths and hospitalizations. I know lots of people in NE Ohio that have tested positive with very mild symptoms. I think with testing more readily available everyone is getting tested. I got tested twice in the past week and I have no symptoms (I was exposed to several positive cases). A lot of young healthy people are testing positive and for them it’s about like the regular flu. The health department also told me the virus seems more mild now than earlier in the year. The big question over the next couple weeks is whether some of these states also see huge increases in death or not.
 

Sebastian

Maréchal d'Empire (AKA King Stannis)
Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jul 12, 2014
Messages
16,060
Reaction score
23,752
Points
135
Maybe you’ve talked about this already... Did you lose your sense of smell? If so did you get it back?
I did!

It was so weird. For about 5 weeks I could not smell much of anything.

It came back.

It is interesting though because smell and memory are usually linked so strong because of the architecture of the brain runs the area that controls smell through the memory banks.

My memory is shot now so one wonders if that area of the brain is being effected in many people.
 

Kiddo

NBA Starter
Joined
Aug 13, 2008
Messages
5,047
Reaction score
2,993
Points
113
I did!

It was so weird. For about 5 weeks I could not smell much of anything.

It came back.

It is interesting though because smell and memory are usually linked so strong because of the architecture of the brain runs the area that controls smell through the memory banks.

My memory is shot now so one wonders if that area of the brain is being effected in many people.
Sorry about your memory loss!

I have some close family and friends anxiously waiting until their smell comes back.
 

Zeus69

Secular Humanist
Joined
Jul 12, 2010
Messages
2,918
Reaction score
3,207
Points
101
The only stats that matter are deaths and hospitalizations. I know lots of people in NE Ohio that have tested positive with very mild symptoms. I think with testing more readily available everyone is getting tested. I got tested twice in the past week and I have no symptoms (I was exposed to several positive cases). A lot of young healthy people are testing positive and for them it’s about like the regular flu. The health department also told me the virus seems more mild now than earlier in the year. The big question over the next couple weeks is whether some of these states also see huge increases in death or not.
The virus is past containment here. Perhaps it could have been contained in the US, but it wasn't. I agree - asymptomatic infections or cases where folks get mildly ill and recover are our friend. Hospitalizations and deaths are the enemy. Vaccines and therapeutics are and will be vital, but herd immunity as a result of the former is what has taken mankind out of EVERY plague that has affected us prior to vaccines, and it is what will help take us out of this one sooner or later.
 

Hydroponic3385

Snitches get stitches
Joined
Jul 15, 2008
Messages
6,239
Reaction score
7,540
Points
113
The only stats that matter are deaths and hospitalizations. I know lots of people in NE Ohio that have tested positive with very mild symptoms. I think with testing more readily available everyone is getting tested. I got tested twice in the past week and I have no symptoms (I was exposed to several positive cases). A lot of young healthy people are testing positive and for them it’s about like the regular flu. The health department also told me the virus seems more mild now than earlier in the year. The big question over the next couple weeks is whether some of these states also see huge increases in death or not.
As of the past several days, many states and cities are seeing increases in positive rates (thus it's not just increased testing), increases in hospitalizations (including Ohio), and with many of them also currently experiencing record hospitalization numbers since the pandemic began. Just do a Google news search for "covid hospitalizations." I can't remember exactly, but just a bit ago while driving in the car I heard a WTAM (which certainly does not skew liberal) news update that 17 states are either experiencing hospitalization increases, or record number of hospitalizations, I can't remember which.

I'm not seeing data that shows the same increases in deaths. But that also makes logical sense, since these new hospitalization plateaus are so recent, deaths will lag behind a bit.

EDIT: Regarding the WTAM news ... I believe it was 32 states have seen the number of new covid cases increase (some could be due to increased testing, some are not), 17 have seen increased hospitalizations, and 7 have set record numbers for hospitalizations.
 
Last edited:

Vindicate2

In the Rotation
Joined
Apr 29, 2008
Messages
596
Reaction score
528
Points
93
The only stats that matter are deaths and hospitalizations. I know lots of people in NE Ohio that have tested positive with very mild symptoms. I think with testing more readily available everyone is getting tested. I got tested twice in the past week and I have no symptoms (I was exposed to several positive cases). A lot of young healthy people are testing positive and for them it’s about like the regular flu. The health department also told me the virus seems more mild now than earlier in the year. The big question over the next couple weeks is whether some of these states also see huge increases in death or not.
I live in NE Ohio too and I have friend’s parents that have only the mild symptoms to date as you have described . At the moment it is relatively calm regards to infection rates in comparison to other spikes across the country.

With that said , look at the spike going on in Cincinnati/ Dayton area . I figure it is a matter of time before it gets here based on what is happening in other cities in the sun belt .

I see people having parties on my block and not adhering to social distancing let alone makes to realize that some are not taking this seriously. It’s unfortunate, based on current hospitalization rate other hot zones that Ohio will be next because we opened about the same time .

I believe some counties will need to be closed (ones with urban areas) if not the whole state . I hate thinking of that , but I’m starting to stock up again because I think it is distinct possibility . I had planned to stock up for the fall, but I fear we may not even get there. As you have succinctly put , hospitalization , icu needs , and deaths are key . If the deaths start to increase in the sun belt , that will be the canary in the coal mine here... based on their hospitalization rates , it does not look good.
 
Last edited:

MediumBaller

All-Star
Joined
Jul 11, 2017
Messages
7,340
Reaction score
8,694
Points
113
Not sure how true this is. There's a very low risk of death for sure, but we still don't know the long term effects. Rudy Gobert said he's still having trouble with his sense of smell.
There could very well be long-term effects, who knows. Going back to my old life is worth that risk for me though because the alternative is a pretty boring and crappy life for a potentially long period of time. I could get the virus and die from it. I could get the virus and have nasty long-term effects from it. But I could also die in a car accident tomorrow.

I think most young people have a similar attitude to me. There is no coronavirus vaccine. There might not ever be a coronavirus vaccine. Millions of people in the US already have it. Containment isn't going to happen. Sometimes the only way is through, and it looks like that could very well be the case here. They can try closing things down again, but they can't stop people from gathering. They can't force people to wear masks. They don't have the manpower. People, especially young people, are going to see a virus that very likely has a >99% survival rate and decide to do what they want.
 
Last edited:

MGMT

NBA Starter
Joined
May 30, 2012
Messages
5,559
Reaction score
4,971
Points
113
Is there a good site or source that has state-by-state hospitalization rates related to the virus? Or something other than sheer cases reported?
 

Sumac13

Heretic
Joined
Aug 16, 2005
Messages
788
Reaction score
834
Points
93
The virus is past containment here. Perhaps it could have been contained in the US, but it wasn't. I agree - asymptomatic infections or cases where folks get mildly ill and recover are our friend. Hospitalizations and deaths are the enemy. Vaccines and therapeutics are and will be vital, but herd immunity as a result of the former is what has taken mankind out of EVERY plague that has affected us prior to vaccines, and it is what will help take us out of this one sooner or later.
I much prefer the herd immunity afforded by vaccines rather than the herd immunity of having a massive swath of the population contracting the disease resulting in a massive chunk of humanity dying off and countless (figuratively) others being affected and having to deal with long term consequences.

Not that you are advocating this, but I see no rush towards herd immunity achieved not by means of vaccines.

Adhering to some common sense preventative measures could keep the virus in check and allow people to return a sense of normalcy. But, when enough people refuse to do so, we are left with the choice of either shutting down large segments of society or just saying 'fuck it' let everyone get sick (a good number of whom will die) so we can move on.
 

Zeus69

Secular Humanist
Joined
Jul 12, 2010
Messages
2,918
Reaction score
3,207
Points
101
I much prefer the herd immunity afforded by vaccines rather than the herd immunity of having a massive swath of the population contracting the disease resulting in a massive chunk of humanity dying off and countless (figuratively) others being affected and having to deal with long term consequences.

Not that you are advocating this, but I see no rush towards herd immunity achieved not by means of vaccines.

Adhering to some common sense preventative measures could keep the virus in check and allow people to return a sense of normalcy. But, when enough people refuse to do so, we are left with the choice of either shutting down large segments of society or just saying 'fuck it' let everyone get sick (a good number of whom will die) so we can move on.
I don't disagree - leading lambs to the slaughter is not what I'm advocating. I hope this talk of a vaccine by "year's end/early 2021" bears fruit, but I'm skeptical. And we can't lock down indefinitely.

I'm attaching an article (not yet peer reviewed) passed along to me recently. It involves the work of Gabriella Gomes and Univ of Oxford on the concept that threshold of herd immunity may be found at levels of only 10-20% of the population rather than the often quoted rate of 60-80% cited by most epidemiologists. This is due to their work integrating the "coefficient of variation of susceptibility to infection" within the population into the the classic vaccination formula for herd immunity (1-1/R0 ), which just assumes everyone is the same.

A different way of looking at the same concept of population heterogeneity is introduced by famed mathematician Professor Carl Friston, a giant in the field of neuroscience. According to his mathematical model up to 80% of the population is not susceptible to Covid due to a variety of possible factors which we don't completely understand. The interview below is a detailed discussion of another way of looking at the reasons why herd immunity may occur at only 10-20% of the population being infected due to our heterogeneity of susceptibility to infection. Although Gomes' work is never discussed here it is clearly another way of looking at the same phenomenon with the same outcome. You have a population that is quite heterogenous in terms of susceptibility to infection and that is the reason you do not need to infect 60-80% of people to achieve the threshold of herd immunity. The threshold of herd immunity is defined as the number of people in the population who need to be infected so that there is enough resistance to further infection within the population to achieve a decline rather than an increase in new infections. That is what we have been seeing in NY, London, Spain, Wuhan... pretty much everywhere that the virus has hit and peaked and now is in decline.


The difference between his work and Gomes is that Gomes' model is theoretical and predictive, and based on integrating a variable for the Coefficient of Variation (CV) into the classic herd immunity vaccination formula and coming up with a number. Friston is looking at the data we have and trying to explain it, but both basically are meeting in the same place. This seems like a telling confirmation of a concept that is incredibly important in terms of social policy and predicting where we may be going from where we are.

So, again, most public policy has been based on the assumption that herd immunity requires 60-80%, but that is for vaccinations....not infections. Infections are not random and once you factor in the coefficient of variation of susceptibility to infection and integrate it into vaccination formulas you get herd immunity thresholds between 10-20%. That does, however, still require protective measures, otherwise you increase the R and get a new higher equilibrium; so it's likely important to continue with social distancing, masks etc.

I'm not posting this to suggest we can draw absolute projections/conclusions, but I do find it fascinating. This is a problem none of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes. We can only look at history and try to predict....but everything we do is just that...a prediction. My crystal ball certainly remains cloudy so I am trying to take things day by day.
 

Attachments

Last edited:

September Through December Server Costs

Total amount
$1,200.00
Goal
$1,200.00
Donation ends:

Advertisement

Radio

Top