Maréchal d'Empire (AKA King Stannis)
- Jul 12, 2014
- Reaction score
Even if that is true. Which I sincerely hope. There is a practical issue; How do you ensure you get the right 20% immunized? I suppose you could just give it to the old and infirm like the flu shot. Also key frontline staff. But then little Jimmy a perfectly healthy 20 year old dies of it and there is public outcry because he wasn't given the vaccine. Then you have the issue that if it doesnt remove social distancing then nothing has really changed. Its theoretically achieving a goal f herd immunity but without achieving the real goal which is a return to normality. The virus is not in decline in london due to enough infections, it is due to the public following social distancing and wearing masks on public transport.I don't disagree - leading lambs to the slaughter is not what I'm advocating. I hope this talk of a vaccine by "year's end/early 2021" bears fruit, but I'm skeptical. And we can't lock down indefinitely.
I'm attaching an article (not yet peer reviewed) passed along to me recently. It involves the work of Gabriella Gomes and Univ of Oxford on the concept that threshold of herd immunity may be found at levels of only 10-20% of the population rather than the often quoted rate of 60-80% cited by most epidemiologists. This is due to their work integrating the "coefficient of variation of susceptibility to infection" within the population into the the classic vaccination formula for herd immunity (1-1/R0 ), which just assumes everyone is the same.
A different way of looking at the same concept of population heterogeneity is introduced by famed mathematician Professor Carl Friston, a giant in the field of neuroscience. According to his mathematical model up to 80% of the population is not susceptible to Covid due to a variety of possible factors which we don't completely understand. The interview below is a detailed discussion of another way of looking at the reasons why herd immunity may occur at only 10-20% of the population being infected due to our heterogeneity of susceptibility to infection. Although Gomes' work is never discussed here it is clearly another way of looking at the same phenomenon with the same outcome. You have a population that is quite heterogenous in terms of susceptibility to infection and that is the reason you do not need to infect 60-80% of people to achieve the threshold of herd immunity. The threshold of herd immunity is defined as the number of people in the population who need to be infected so that there is enough resistance to further infection within the population to achieve a decline rather than an increase in new infections. That is what we have been seeing in NY, London, Spain, Wuhan... pretty much everywhere that the virus has hit and peaked and now is in decline.
The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdownunherd.com
The difference between his work and Gomes is that Gomes' model is theoretical and predictive, and based on integrating a variable for the Coefficient of Variation (CV) into the classic herd immunity vaccination formula and coming up with a number. Friston is looking at the data we have and trying to explain it, but both basically are meeting in the same place. This seems like a telling confirmation of a concept that is incredibly important in terms of social policy and predicting where we may be going from where we are.
So, again, most public policy has been based on the assumption that herd immunity requires 60-80%, but that is for vaccinations....not infections. Infections are not random and once you factor in the coefficient of variation of susceptibility to infection and integrate it into vaccination formulas you get herd immunity thresholds between 10-20%. That does, however, still require protective measures, otherwise you increase the R and get a new higher equilibrium; so it's likely important to continue with social distancing, masks etc.
I'm not posting this to suggest we can draw absolute projections/conclusions, but I do find it fascinating. This is a problem none of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes. We can only look at history and try to predict....but everything we do is just that...a prediction. My crystal ball certainly remains cloudy so I am trying to take things day by day.
My Rabbi who dies 2 weeks ago at 44 had recovered but then had a fatal heart attack. The thickening of the blood caused by Covid was a contributing factor in his fatal heart attack.My cousin (only know her through her uncle) who is in her 30s and had no known underlying conditions got it around 6 weeks ago. It hit her hard and fast with high fever, body pains and breathing issues. She was in the hospital for like a week and bed ridden for a couple more. I heard she was doing well a week or so ago. Well now I hear she is back in the hospital and not doing well. I'm not sure what the current issues are but....
LONG POST ALERTEven if that is true. Which I sincerely hope. There is a practical issue; How do you ensure you get the right 20% immunized? I suppose you could just give it to the old and infirm like the flu shot. Also key frontline staff. But then little Jimmy a perfectly healthy 20 year old dies of it and there is public outcry because he wasn't given the vaccine. Then you have the issue that if it doesnt remove social distancing then nothing has really changed. Its theoretically achieving a goal f herd immunity but without achieving the real goal which is a return to normality. The virus is not in decline in london due to enough infections, it is due to the public following social distancing and wearing masks on public transport.
I hope this doesn't come across as a personal attack I just find the ideas Friston discusses frustrating.
There is no evidence the protests have resulted in spikes. Oddly enough.The same politicians, public health officials, and media members who wring their hands about 20somethings going to bars continue to say nothing negative about protests/rallies of thousands of people. This strategy of picking and choosing which mass gatherings are acceptable and which aren't based on their political usefulness would be humorous if it wasn't so infuriating. They're living in a fantasy land if they think they're going to get people to stay home and stop gathering again (to the extent they ever did in the first place).
Covid cases among 20somethings have skyrocketed during June in Minnesota.There is no evidence the protests have resulted in spikes. Oddly enough.
There is plenty of evidence regarding bars and other gatherings.
There are probably two reasons for this, in my opinion: 1) People going to bars, and partying, are probably not wearing masks, or social distancing, and 2) Protests tend to be outside.
I think indoor proximity is the real killer in this equation.
That and all the young people making out and fornicating.
Indiana hospital rate isn't good for the population of the state. It's basically half the population of Ohio and has just as many current hospitalizations. Minnesota on the other hand has less than half of the current hospitalizations of Indiana and they are similar size populations.Covid cases among 20somethings have skyrocketed during June in Minnesota.
We've also seen in states like Florida and Texas, and in cities like Philadelphia, that increasing numbers of people in the 20-29 age group have been catching the virus. Houston is having a lot of cases right now and a few weeks ago there was a massive indoor funeral for George Floyd in Houston. It could be the case that this is because of bars, and I don't doubt that they're playing a part, but bars make easy scapegoats imho. Hating on the young, drunk hooligans is a time-honored tradition. A lot of the pictures I've seen of packed bars are on outdoor patios or other outdoor settings.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that protests have been spreading the virus. The 20-29 group is also the prime protest age group. We've seen several NBA players test positive after showing up to protests. Bars have been open in Indiana for over a month now, and it's been 8 weeks since we started opening. Our cases are lower than they were May 1st, and it's most certainly not because Hoosiers have been cautious. People have been acting like the virus doesn't exist, and you get dirty looks from people if you're one of the few wearing a mask. I don't think there's any definitive way to tell what activities are causing the spread, especially when contact tracers in places like NYC are being instructed to not ask positive people if they went to any protests.