Obi Toppin Scouting: Discuss

[I'mWithDan]

Finally had some time to look at numbers on top 40 ish types...... Obi is a little tougher for me. The numbers my stuff spits out don't necessarily dislike him but they also don't love him, especially when flagging him as an average to below average defensive player at the NBA level.

The biggest red flag, to me, as someone projected as a scorer....is he is really average generating FT's relative to his FGA, which is concerning. Other concerning things, relative to his projected position.....he's a really average rebounder on a per 100 basis and he scores especially poorly on hustle stat metrics. If he doesn't score at the NBA level, all my stuff says he's a big washout candidate.

I'll post this in the draft thread too but here's the shortened season data. No athletic testing yet, so these will shift slightly but it doesn't make a huge difference.....it can just move someone off the margins.

The thing that stands out to me, is that in a bad draft, there are a handful of guys that seem criminally underrated in mock drafts.....relative to their positional data.

Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Paul Reed stand out to me.....just as modern NBA profiles who just aren't (yet) getting pushed up draft boards. I'd also bet teams will fall in love with Saddiq Bey as the draft nears. He scores really well relative to true NBA small forward types, who's stats are always suppressed in the college game.

All of the things I look at also say teams should not be taking Toppin over Okongwu. Okongwu is a generally more impactful player and his mix of defensive stats give him a high floor. He's also significantly younger. I think he's + in areas that can't be taught / learned and he has potential in areas that he's weaker in but can be.

GS - Overall Impact
GSADJ - Impact Less Scoring
GS NET - Net of those numbers
PDIFF - Impact relative to the successful positional baseline

This isn’t meant to fill out a mock draft it is merely to identify who might be underrated, overrated or appropriately rated in consensus mocks.

 

[Murph]

Wow, that’s some amazing statistical analysis. Well done.

Yes, as I mentioned before, I was hoping the Cavs could snag Saddiq Bey in the early 2nd round, for some much needed help at SF. Hopefully, Bey will last into the 2nd round.

According to your analysis, Halibuton grades out well as that big PG the Cave need with their 1st round pick. Although I don’t see those players who played overseas on your list, such as LaMelo or Hayes.

Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony and Nico Mannion grade out shocking poorly. The Cavs should avoid those three, IMO.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Wow, that’s some amazing statistical analysis. Well done.

Yes, as I mentioned before, I was hoping the Cavs could snag Saddiq Bey in the early 2nd round, for some much needed help at SF. Hopefully, Bey will last into the 2nd round.

According to your analysis, Halibuton grades out well as that big PG the Cave need with their 1st round pick. Although I don’t see those players who played overseas on your list, such as LaMelo or Hayes.

Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony and Nico Mannion grade out shocking poorly. The Cavs should avoid those three, IMO.

One thing to keep in mind, analytics are one aspect of draft analysis. What I mean by that is, there are reasons you might take someone like Edwards (below average analytical profile) over someone like Ty-Shon Alexander (above average analytical profile). There's certainly other elements at play. I tend to believe more in analytics than other methods but there are other ways to identify and draft players too.

The point of the stuff I generate isn't necessarily to say "avoid these guys", I more look at it as "you better have a really compelling argument for players in that purple and below range".....as the prospect models they are being compared against flag them as underperforming, relative to a traditional prospect at their position. I think there are compelling arguments for a guy like Edwards, I think there are not for someone like Anthony. Does it mean Anthony can't succeed? I mean, no.....my data just says it is less likely. That is all I'm really trying to do.....is to try to see which players are more likley to exceed or meet their draft expectations.

I just point that out because I don't think Garza should be drafted over Toppin, that's not what these rankings mean.......it is just saying that Garza is potentially really undervalued, as a player with plus scoring skill at the NBA level and people should take a second look at him......ditto for anyone else who you might be surprised by in that "green" or better color band. Those guys profile as good or better prospects, relative to their positive outcome positional baselines.

 

[Murph]

One thing to keep in mind, analytics are one aspect of draft analysis. What I mean by that is, there are reasons you might take someone like Edwards (below average analytical profile) over someone like Ty-Shon Alexander (above average analytical profile). There's certainly other elements at play. I tend to believe more in analytics than other methods but there are other ways to identify and draft players too.

The point of the stuff I generate isn't necessarily to say "avoid these guys", I more look at it as "you better have a really compelling argument for players in that purple and below range".....as the prospect models they are being compared against flag them as underperforming, relative to a traditional prospect at their position. I think there are compelling arguments for a guy like Edwards, I think there are not for someone like Anthony. Does it mean Anthony can't succeed? I mean, no.....my data just says it is less likely. That is all I'm really trying to do.....is to try to see which players are more likley to exceed or meet their draft expectations.

I just point that out because I don't think Garza should be drafted over Toppin, that's not what these rankings mean.......it is just saying that Garza is potentially really undervalued, as a player with plus scoring skill at the NBA level and people should take a second look at him......ditto for anyone else who you might be surprised by in that "green" or better color band. Those guys profile as good or better prospects, relative to their positive outcome positional baselines.

I hear you. I’m looking at your analysis for confirmation of what I already believe, and that is that I don’t want Edwards, Toppin, Anthony ot Mannion. I do want Haliburton and Saddiq Bey. It’s too bad you don’t have numbers on LaMelo or Hayes.

The other SF that grades out well, if Saddam Bey doesn’t make it to the 2nd round. is CJ Elleby.

 

[Nathan S]

@I'mWithDan do your ratings account for age in any way? Seems like a lot of top freshmen really lagging.

 

[I'mWithDan]

@I'mWithDan do your ratings account for age in any way? Seems like a lot of top freshmen really lagging.

They do account for age.......it is factored in to the net calculation.......GS is is a raw number, based on box score stats per 100. GSNET makes slight adjustments based on age and frame / athletic testing.

From what I see in the possession based era, age / athleticism / frame can be enough of a factor to move someone off the fringes of a tier (up or down 1 level)....but historically, it has not been an indicator that a player should be given any more consideration than that.

Guys who end up being quality NBA players produce above these baselines a vast, vast majority of the time, regardless of age or class. Seeing the freshman underperform, almost across the board, speaks to how weak this frosh class is analytically. And that's probably why guys like Toppin should be given more consideration, even if they are older and have some flaws. But on the flip side, it is also why I think Okungwu is a tier 1 player........he's one of the only guys who is young and producing at a plus level and that just generally leads to a lot of positive NBA outcomes. Ditto for someone like Vernon Carey Jr. And Devin Vassell.

I'll run it again after the 2019 data but I believe heading in to last years draft the average Jan 1. rookie year age for successful NBA outcomes was 21.25. So that's not especially young. Lillard, Oladipo, Curry, Kemba, Draymond, Butler, Klay, etc. were all even older than that. From the data I have, you tend to see a huge fall off at 23. In terms of impactful players. The sweet spot is more in the average age band 20-22.....but you do have enough guys in the older than 22, younger than 23 (Jan 1 of rookie year) who turn in to All-Stars, that they shouldn't be dismissed. That's why age is, to me, more about if a guy is super young and close to a draftable tier, that you bet on his youth. But if guys just aren't good by NBA standards (and there are lots in this class), I don't see much data that matters that they are really young.

 

[Cavatt]

He does well on switches, but I think you'd agree that if we're actually trying to win games he should be swinging between 4 and small-ball 5, not playing the wing. The 3 big lineups have been used for like 70 minutes total (albeit with very good results). I wouldn't anticipate it being a long-term recipe for success.


I don't really see any similarities between Parker and Toppin besides their size.

Their athletic abilities, skill sets, and style of play are very different.

Well he was instrumental in guarding 3s and winning multiple games from taht position in a big lineup. I'd also argue that he was healthier this year playing 3-4 than he has been playing 4-5. I think if you dug into the numbers you would find he is a better defender at the 3-4. I think he is better perimeter defender than paint protector, but that is my opinion. People think he is Tristan, but he isn't.

 

[Derek]

Well he was instrumental in guarding 3s and winning multiple games from taht position in a big lineup. I'd also argue that he was healthier this year playing 3-4 than he has been playing 4-5. I think if you dug into the numbers you would find he is a better defender at the 3-4. I think he is better perimeter defender than paint protector, but that is my opinion. People think he is Tristan, but he isn't.

I don't think you can draw any conclusions on him being healthier or how good of a defender he is out there when he's played just 70 of his 1472 minutes out there with the other 1402 being with him at the 4/5.

 

[jack hammill]

I see Antawn Jamison when he plays and can't unsee it. Still, young Jamison was a scoring machine. Awful the Flyers didn't get a chance at the tournament because this was undoubtedly their best team in school history. They had a real shot at the championship.

the class of 68 or 69 that took then Alcindor to the limit would have matched quite well ... but I do agree this was a great team and a tough situation

 

[Nathan S]

I don't think you can draw any conclusions on him being healthier or how good of a defender he is out there when he's played just 70 of his 1472 minutes out there with the other 1402 being with him at the 4/5.

IMO, it's not that Nance has some special talent for defending wings. It's that if Nance is at SF, that means we're not grossly undersized overall like we typically have been, and that makes everyone look a bit better defensively.

 

[ansatsusha80]

Report: Cavs Like Obadiah Toppin Over Onyeka Okongwu - Cavaliers Nation

The Cleveland Cavaliers, in particular, are readying themselves by looking at a number of top prospects. Among them are Obadiah Toppin and Onyeka Okongwu.

cavaliersnation.com

 

[Nathan S]

Report: Cavs Like Obadiah Toppin Over Onyeka Okongwu - Cavaliers Nation

The Cleveland Cavaliers, in particular, are readying themselves by looking at a number of top prospects. Among them are Obadiah Toppin and Onyeka Okongwu.

cavaliersnation.com

The next Kenyon Marion!

 

[cabs]

Is it just me or is Fedor always super positive about the cavs and super negative about the Browns.. I’m not a browns fan so I don’t really care but I can imagine that inconsistency would get annoying

 

[ansatsusha80]

 

[arglebargle]

The next Kenyon Marion!

I was thinking that myself.