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Odell Beckham Jr.,: Seatbelts Ruin Lives

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Will the Browns look better or worse after this?

  • Browns got back to being a top 10 offense

    Votes: 23 54.8%
  • Browns will recover a but but it's too little to late to make the playoffs

    Votes: 6 14.3%
  • Odell wasn't the problem but he wasn't the solution either

    Votes: 11 26.2%
  • The offense goes from bad to badderer, but the team stays the course

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • Stefanski has to fall on his own sword

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • Baker gets traded in the off season

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    42

:chuckle:

(Hopefully the share at timestamp works for you--if not, skip to 22:12)

"Every time someone ... says it was Odell's fault, I cringe because they just don't know football." And to be clear, he's not talking about blame--he's talking about OBJ being out being pointed to as the catalyst for the team's improvement.

The funny thing about this debate is that both sides will feel vindicated if Odell comes out and has a great season this year.

The folks who think the Odell-Baker combo was problematic (whether that's Odell's fault or Baker's) can say the success of the team without Odell was the catalyst for fixing the issue(s) between 6 and 13.

The folks who say there was no issue between Odell and Baker and the improvement was simply a function of overall improvement and maturation of the offense can say 'see, told ya!'

The only way this debate ever really gets settled is if the Browns offense regresses upon Odell's return...which I don't anticipate nor do I want to see by any means.
 
The funny thing about this debate is that both sides will feel vindicated if Odell comes out and has a great season this year.

The folks who think the Odell-Baker combo was problematic (whether that's Odell's fault or Baker's) can say the success of the team without Odell was the catalyst for fixing the issue(s) between 6 and 13.

The folks who say there was no issue between Odell and Baker and the improvement was simply a function of overall improvement and maturation of the offense can say 'see, told ya!'

The only way this debate ever really gets settled is if the Browns offense regresses upon Odell's return...which I don't anticipate nor do I want to see by any means.
I mean, yeah, people can cling to crutch arguments all they want.

You hear people claim that adding a true number one to a roster will elevate another receiver in fantasy because he won't draw as much defensive focus and double coverage. Meanwhile you'll hear just as many people say that the receiver's value goes down because of less target share.

Just because people can say both doesn't mean both are correct.

I'd say your last point isn't even valid. It's foolish to assume the offense should function in game one of a new season in the exact same way it did towards the end of last year (Are we talking Steelers game, or Chiefs game? Because one was really good, and the other was absolutely pitiful offense that couldn't keep up with Chad Henne). The defense also has a lot to say about things.
 
I mean, yeah, people can cling to crutch arguments all they want.

You hear people claim that adding a true number one to a roster will elevate another receiver in fantasy because he won't draw as much defensive focus and double coverage. Meanwhile you'll hear just as many people say that the receiver's value goes down because of less target share.

Just because people can say both doesn't mean both are correct.

I'd say your last point isn't even valid. It's foolish to assume the offense should function in game one of a new season in the exact same way it did towards the end of last year (Are we talking Steelers game, or Chiefs game? Because one was really good, and the other was absolutely pitiful offense that couldn't keep up with Chad Henne). The defense also has a lot to say about things.

The "crutch argument" is just the one you don't agree with :chuckle:

For the record, your last paragraph looks like hedging.

I didn't say we should judge the Browns based on 'game one of a new season'. But we will absolutely draw comparisons across appropriate sample sizes of the 2020 and 2021 offenses due to the fact that the unit is basically unchanged. Continuity plus adding in Odell should lead to progression. If we instead see regression, it assuredly warrants root cause analysis.
 
The "crutch argument" is just the one you don't agree with :chuckle:
No.

In the example I provided, they are both crutch arguments. Your analysis can't stand on its own, so you rely on a lazy "crutch" to prop it up.

For the record, your last paragraph looks like hedging.
It's accurate.

I didn't say we should judge the Browns based on 'game one of a new season'. But we will absolutely draw comparisons across appropriate sample sizes of the 2020 and 2021 offenses due to the fact that the unit is basically unchanged. Continuity plus adding in Odell should lead to progression. If we instead see regression, it assuredly warrants root cause analysis.
I'd love to see the bolded.

I can't imagine it actually happening. People love their narrative too much.
 
No.

In the example I provided, they are both crutch arguments. Your analysis can't stand on its own, so you rely on a lazy "crutch" to prop it up.


It's accurate.


I'd love to see the bolded.

I can't imagine it actually happening. People love their narrative too much.
Well, there are no in-depth articles/videos showcasing and explaining why OBJ and Baker haven't led to the kind of production we want and expect. I imagine if there is some regression and OBJ ends up getting traded mid-season or at the end of the year, we will start to see those things pop up.

As for now, we can only speculate and go by what we see on the field and in the film room. I've personally watched every Baker throw this season (and some of the games I've seen it two or three times over) and noticed a lack of chemistry/timing between he and OBJ. Jake Burns of the OBR has mentioned it. Steve Palazzolo of PFF mentioned it. That might not be sufficient enough for you or others to consider that chemistry could possibly be an issue for Baker and OBJ, but it is for me.

It's not an unfounded or ridiculous narrative so I'm not sure why you're on this crusade to dismiss it as such. It's based on not just statistics but film.

We're all hoping for the best and I personally believe that Baker and OBJ CAN work the way we want them to.
 
Well, there are no in-depth articles/videos showcasing and explaining why OBJ and Baker haven't led to the kind of production we want and expect. I imagine if there is some regression and OBJ ends up getting traded mid-season or at the end of the year, we will start to see those things pop up.

As for now, we can only speculate and go by what we see on the field and in the film room. I've personally watched every Baker throw this season (and some of the games I've seen it two or three times over) and noticed a lack of chemistry/timing between he and OBJ. Jake Burns of the OBR has mentioned it. Steve Palazzolo of PFF mentioned it. That might not be sufficient enough for you or others to consider that chemistry could possibly be an issue for Baker and OBJ, but it is for me.

It's not an unfounded or ridiculous narrative so I'm not sure why you're on this crusade to dismiss it as such. It's based on not just statistics but film.

We're all hoping for the best and I personally believe that Baker and OBJ CAN work the way we want them to.
Care to pick specific examples where the issue was "chemistry" between OBJ and Baker? Again--your claim is that the team was worse because OBJ was on the field, and improved because OBJ was off the field.

I honestly haven't seen anyone who shares your opinion point to film in the entire time this narrative has had legs.
 
Care to pick specific examples where the issue was "chemistry" between OBJ and Baker? Again--your claim is that the team was worse because OBJ was on the field, and improved because OBJ was off the field.

I honestly haven't seen anyone who shares your opinion point to film in the entire time this narrative has had legs.
I know for sure in the Baltimore game Baker was pressing OBJ at times when he shouldn't have. He was very inaccurate on some curls when it seemed he expected OBJ to curl tighter, so the pass ended up being behind him. On deep balls he seems to misjudge OBJ's speed, missing him by overthrowing or underthrowing (despite being one of the better deep ball passers in the league last year).

The Colts game had a couple plays like that as well, where passes would be off target and it seemed like he didn't have a good gauge on OBJ's route-running. He forced some tight window passes as well, even ignoring others and zero'ing in on OBJ (off the top of my head there was an out-route where Burns criticized him for forcing it to OBJ when there were others open). Those are just a few examples.

To your next point - my claim is that there seemed to be issues with Baker when targeting OBJ. I don't know if it was big enough to make the TEAM worse but it did appear to play a factor in Baker's overall performance.

To your last point - it's truly speculation. I get that a lot of people declare we're worse with OBJ and point to that same stat graphic ad nauseam. Burns says it's conjecture to suggest we're worse without him, but also said it's conjecture to suggest we're better with him. 1.5 seasons of stats and film, even with context (Freddie et all) just can't be 100% ignored.
 
Time to change the thread title for sure

OK, we got a new title. Kind of a bland one because I don't know what to expect of OBJ this year, but it does seem like he's healthy and ready to go.

How does it play out if DPJ displaces OBJ as a starter?
 
OK, we got a new title. Kind of a bland one because I don't know what to expect of OBJ this year, but it does seem like he's healthy and ready to go.

How does it play out if DPJ displaces OBJ as a starter?
If that highly unlikely scenario happens due to any reason other than injury then the browns likelihood of cutting OBJ at the end of the season goes from medium high to guaranteed.

And that's about all that changes
 

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