Odell Beckham Jr.,: Seatbelts Ruin Lives

[Lee]

Apparently the media is still questioning if OBJ all in. They are awful in this town.

Man what a stupid question. He hasn't missed a day of practice, stays late, and is engaged when not practicing but on sideline.

Also on the footage available you can really see him mentoring other WR's talking about routes and things. I have seen this numerous times as I am sure many of you have seen this too.

If that isn't all in, I don't know what the fuck is? Is he supposed to dye his hair brown and orange and get a tattoo of the Browns on his arm?

 

[col63onel]

Can you explain what Callaway has done to be a great complement to a OBJ? He averaged just 1 yard more per catch then Landry, had the identical catch percentage (Landry was 16% under his career avg), had the identical amount of drops (higher drop rate), with half the amount of targets.

First off it’s a yard and a half. Callaway was 38 in the league and Landry was 64. That’s not something I would say as “just” a yard per catch less.

It was also .1 off Landry’s career high and above his career norm. He’s also in his prime and the offense was designed around him for half the season.

Callaway was a rookie who literally spent half his career coached by Hue Jackson and Todd Hailey.

The fact that their numbers are even comparable I think actually makes Callaway look better. Imagine him in his prime with better coaching.

 

[Ohio]

I've cooled a bit on Callaway recently. Even before his suspension, showing up to camp out of weight? Like, do you not know the other WRs on this team? I just don't understand how you think you're just going to roll into a starting spot on this WR group. Callaway's offseason has consisted of being out of shape, injured, and suspended. Meanwhile Higgins is out here ballin and damn near every WR in camp is playing at a high level.

The dude has elite talent, but does he have the dedication? I expected him to come into camp and win the #3 WR job. Instead, he'd be lucky to be the #4 WR when he returns from suspension.

I still believe in his talent, but its been an incredibly disappointing past couple months for Callaway. OBJ and Jarvis need to get in his ear.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Which stat has less value: Yards per Catch or Yards per Carry?

 

[MGMT]

Don’t care for either but I’d accuse YPCarry to be less valuable for a running back since they can be players of way higher variance; so instead, I’d look at their successful play rates.

 

[Norm]

If that isn't all in, I don't know what the fuck is? Is he supposed to dye his hair brown and orange and get a tattoo of the Browns on his arm?

Ummmmm.........

Yeah

 

[Cassity14]

Which stat has less value: Yards per Catch or Yards per Carry?

Can I ask what's wrong with these metrics, particularly the latter?

Is it frowned upon because YPC doesn't factor in offensive line play, defensive scheme, and thus where the runner is first being contacted?

 

[Jack Brickman]

Can I ask what's wrong with these metrics, particularly the latter?

Is it frowned upon because YPC doesn't factor in offensive line play, defensive scheme, and thus where the runner is first being contacted?

You could similarly argue that yards per catch is greatly impacted by QB quality and offensive scheme. Beckham will likely have a better YPC here than in New York because we have a QB who can throw accurately downfield and a scheme that encourages him to do so.

Personally, I think yards per carry is the slightly more valuable stat but both require a lot of context.

 

[Lee]

You could similarly argue that yards per catch is greatly impacted by QB quality and offensive scheme. Beckham will likely have a better YPC here than in New York because we have a QB who can throw accurately downfield and a scheme that encourages him to do so.

Personally, I think yards per carry is the slightly more valuable stat but both require a lot of context.

I would agree. @Cassity14 yards per a catch also has allot to do with accuracy especially for a guy like Odell. Hitting Odell in stride in crossing routes allows for tons of YAKs which obviously ups your yard per catch.

Further, all runs for a RB are from the line of scrimmage, but depending on how the receiver is used and routes he runs affects the yards per a catch allot. Last year Jarvis had 12 YPC over the year before at 8.8. But Jarvis was an outside receiver last year, but this year he is going back into the slot so his YPC should go down.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Can I ask what's wrong with these metrics, particularly the latter?

Is it frowned upon because YPC doesn't factor in offensive line play, defensive scheme, and thus where the runner is first being contacted?

Yards per carry has an incredibly low correlation with RB talent.

It leads to nincompoops making arguments that guys like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Joe Mixon suck one year because they have a low YPC, but suddenly they're AMAZING when they have a higher YPC. The guys didn't drastically improve--their situations just changed.

Go back and look at year-by-year stats for a guy. Look at the way his YPC is inconsistent.

Go back and look at the yearly leaders in YPC. That's always a fun one. Typically like 7 out of the top 10 guys suck.

Go back and look how much just one broken defensive assignment can lead to a long run that skews a RB's YPC. The RB didn't do anything better than he normally does in that situation, so why are we going to pretend he's now better just because someone else made a mistake?

I'm pretty sure I've done that research already in this section somewhere in the past year if you feel like searching post history as well.

 

[Ohio]

 

[Jordan]

Yards per carry has an incredibly low correlation with RB talent.

It leads to nincompoops making arguments that guys like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Joe Mixon suck one year because they have a low YPC, but suddenly they're AMAZING when they have a higher YPC. The guys didn't drastically improve--their situations just changed.

Go back and look at year-by-year stats for a guy. Look at the way his YPC is inconsistent.

Go back and look at the yearly leaders in YPC. That's always a fun one. Typically like 7 out of the top 10 guys suck.

Go back and look how much just one broken defensive assignment can lead to a long run that skews a RB's YPC. The RB didn't do anything better than he normally does in that situation, so why are we going to pretend he's now better just because someone else made a mistake?

I'm pretty sure I've done that research already in this section somewhere in the past year if you feel like searching post history as well.

There are not a lot of great stats to analyze runningback value. Yards after contact, successful runs using regression to control for offensive line, first down conversions on short yardage situations, yards when leading in the fourth quarter, and DVOA for receiving stats are about the best we have.

The problem is that it is difficult to control for more than just the offensive line. So yes, the offensive line does play a HUGE role in RB performance, but so does coaching, QB, other receivers, opposing defense, etc.

I do believe that we overvalue aspects of the running game, which is what leads us to analyze guys like Melvin Gordon as GOAT type talent. In my mind, analysts should be prioritizing how RBs do in high leverage/short yardage situations, as blockers/receivers, and after contact. This is why I came to the conclusion that Chubb > Hunt... I know that is an unpopular statement, but Hunt is only better as a receiver, whereas Chubb is a much better runner in high leverage.

 

[godfather]

Higgins is better than Callaway. What often gets ignored. The offense didn't just get better because Hue and Haley sucked so bad, and we got rid of them.

Higgins coming back helped a lot. I think he has the breakout year this season. With all the attention OBJ and Jarvis will get.

Higgins should thrive with his route running ability.

 

[Jordan]

Higgins is better than Callaway. What often gets ignored. The offense didn't just get better because Hue and Haley sucked so bad, and we got rid of them.

Higgins coming back helped a lot. I think he has the breakout year this season. With all the attention OBJ and Jarvis will get.

Higgins should thrive with his route running ability.

The best world is if Higgins performs well enough to get a nice contract next season, the Browns get a fourth rounder as compensation when he leaves, and Callaway improves to play around that level.

My big concern is the first two things happen, but that Callaway does not actually improve, leaving us with a hole on the offense.

 

[godfather]

Calloway has more talent than Higgins, but he is a poor mans OBJ in that he stretches the field and runs good routes, especially deep.

Higgins is actually the better compliment to OBJ As WR1, Jarvis as the slot, then a procession receiver like Higgins when we go 3 wide.

Now that said, I think Calloway will become the better receiver than Higgins because he has all the tools, will develop like Higgins has developed but Calloway does things you cant teach Higgins with his speed and athletic ability. This is not to insult Higgins who I think is WR2 on most teams and even WR1 on a few, its just reality.

Plus Higgins is going to get paid this offseason as an unrestricted free agent, I doubt we see him back. Cant pay and keep them all, hopefully he does enough that we get a comp pick for him.

I don't think Callaway has better talent. Sure, he's faster than Higgins, but that's basically the only thing he has. I don't think speed is the most important aspect for a receiver. It's obviously great having a burner.

Higgins is a smarter football player, reads defensive coverage better, runs much better routes, and has the better hands. Lead the teams in YPC 14.7.

His lack of speed hasn't hurt him at all. He gets open, he can even get vertical. He's not just an under neath possession receiver.

I'm confident Higgins will have the better career than Callaway. He's already better than him right now, and he himself is still pretty young.