Official CLE Midseason Prospect Rankings

[sportscoach]

Regardless of rankings or predicting which MIF prospects will be playing, this organization is headed for a logjam of MIFers and those that don't falter will have to be dealt. I don't recall ever seeing anything quite like it. With that in mind does anyone else think Amed's stock is increasing nicely?

Every team drafts MIF first normally, but you normally don't see so many get to the upper minors still at MIF positions...

 

[CDAV45]

"No power" as he is in the top 50 for AAA East qualified hitters in slugging, is putting up a .200 ISO (which is great), and leads the AAA East in 2Bs (is 3rd among all AAA players in 2B). And he is doing that while 4 years younger than the average player age at his level.

He is not "below average defensively". A lot of you need to get away from associating minor league errors means someone isn't good defensively.

And again, you can't just erase an entire month, but context, context, context. After missing an entire season due to Covid he struggled out of the gate, like a lot of players did. Since May he is slashing .243/.350/.470 with a K rate 26.5%. That .820 OPS and 26.5% K rate are right in line with his minor league career averages, the same averages that made him a top prospect in the first place.

I am actually more bullish on Jones following this season because this is the first time he has struggled for any significant length of time at any level as a pro and he has now proven he can struggle and still produce at an above league average level offensively. Guys K'ing 102 times in 276 ABs should not be getting on base at a .350 clip with an OPS around .800.

That is special and that's what separates him from someone like Owen Miller, who predominantly gets on base in the minors by getting singles and taking advantage of lesser defensive players and positioning, but sees those same balls put in play turn to outs at the MLB level when faced with superior defensive talent and positioning/game planning.

Let me preface this noting that I'm not trying to be argumentative. I take what you post as valuable inside information that we're all privileged to garner.

Miller predominantly hit singles? How is his career OPS over .800? How does he slug .450 while Jones career is .446 with his best year being .482? Could it not be suggested that making contact is a skill that Miller has in spades over Jones? Please don't take this as I see Miller as a better prospect because that's not the case at all. I think they are different prospects. If Miller wasn't a good contact hitter I don't think he'd be much of a prospect and if Jones had less power I don't think he'd be much of a prospect either. Both are decent at best defensively, but neither are what most consider above average.

I'm not one to be concerned with SO as long as the OBP and slugging is there, but if you're comparing those 2 players it's hard to ignore Jones' 490 SO in 1464 AB compared to Miller's 179 SO in 987 AB. Thing is I don't disagree in whole with your assessment of Miller because every minor league hitter "takes advantage of those things". Where I become confused with your assessment is that Jones' already elevated SO rate will become a bigger issue against superior pitching.

I love Jones' power because this lineup could use some IMO. If he got hot in Columbus I would call him up TBH. The experience would do him good and if he is going to struggle initially I'd prefer it be this season and not next. Conversely I think that Miller needs to get back to what made him successful and that's solid contact inside the zone. We're starting to see glimpses of it.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Let me preface this noting that I'm not trying to be argumentative. I take what you post as valuable inside information that we're all privileged to garner.

Miller predominantly hit singles? How is his career OPS over .800? How does he slug .450 while Jones career is .446 with his best year being .482? Could it not be suggested that making contact is a skill that Miller has in spades over Jones? Please don't take this as I see Miller as a better prospect because that's not the case at all. I think they are different prospects. If Miller wasn't a good contact hitter I don't think he'd be much of a prospect and if Jones had less power I don't think he'd be much of a prospect either. Both are decent at best defensively, but neither are what most consider above average.

I'm not one to be concerned with SO as long as the OBP and slugging is there, but if you're comparing those 2 players it's hard to ignore Jones' 490 SO in 1464 AB compared to Miller's 179 SO in 987 AB. Thing is I don't disagree in whole with your assessment of Miller because every minor league hitter "takes advantage of those things". Where I become confused with your assessment is that Jones' already elevated SO rate will become a bigger issue against superior pitching.

I love Jones' power because this lineup could use some IMO. If he got hot in Columbus I would call him up TBH. The experience would do him good and if he is going to struggle initially I'd prefer it be this season and not next. Conversely I think that Miller needs to get back to what made him successful and that's solid contact inside the zone. We're starting to see glimpses of it.

Wasn't exactly comparing the 2 as players, more so how their offense can transfer up to the next level and what separates them as prospects, not players.

Miller isn't the best example, admittedly, but one fresh on the mind. Guy who puts the ball in play at a high rate, but doesn't manufacture ways to get on base at a high level when balls in play aren't finding holes or dropping, which happens more frequently at the MLB level than in the minors (yes, @Lee this is common sense). His 3 BB, .106/.160/.128 initial cup of coffee as the "fresh on the mind" example.

Only point I was trying to make on why Jones and his batting average and K rate doesn't hurt his prospect status in comparison to guys who hit for higher averages or K less, like Miller.

 

[CDAV45]

Wasn't exactly comparing the 2 as players, more so how their offense can transfer up to the next level and what separates them as prospects, not players.

Miller isn't the best example, admittedly, but one fresh on the mind. Guy who puts the ball in play at a high rate, but doesn't manufacture ways to get on base at a high level when balls in play aren't finding holes or dropping, which happens more frequently at the MLB level than in the minors (yes, @Lee this is common sense). His 3 BB, .106/.160/.128 initial cup of coffee as the "fresh on the mind" example.

Only point I was trying to make on why Jones and his batting average and K rate doesn't hurt his prospect status in comparison to guys who hit for higher averages or K less, like Miller.

That makes sense to me. I do think the Miller's current numbers aren't a good reflection of who he is as a hitter. At the same time, if he doesn't revert back to what made him successful then his major league career will be short lived. It's just not typical for such a good minor league hitter to completely fall on his face in the long run.

 

[CATS44]

That makes sense to me. I do think the Miller's current numbers aren't a good reflection of who he is as a hitter. At the same time, if he doesn't revert back to what made him successful then his major league career will be short lived. It's just not typical for such a good minor league hitter to completely fall on his face in the long run.

Actually, it's quite typical....about 70% typical.

As Bimbo points out, defenders cover more ground in MLB.

But it also needs to be pointed out that MLB pitchers don't walk batters at nearly the rate as minor leaguers do, and they are very good at taking advantage of holes in a batters swing.

Walk rates seldom go up once a prospective power batter gets to the Bigs, and K rates seldom go down.

Look at Zimmers numbers in AA and AAA at ages 22-24. See the high K rates, high walk rates, high OBP. The look at his first season in Cleveland BEFORE he was hurt. High K rate, walk rate cut in half, low OBP.

Now look at Jones at age. Almost identical.

All this excitement over bringing up the kids, all this expectation that the kids will be automatically better than what we have. Trade vets like Hernandez and Amed, because they can easily be replaced. Trade pitchers like Plesac and TMac for the same reason

This years Tribe has brought up nine rookies that have never seen MLB. We have also played five that are rookies, but had a cup of coffee earlier.

All of them were prospects that some, or even a lot of fans, touted as instant improvements, sure fire producers.

It hasn't worked out that way. It very seldom works out that way.

I'd trade a lot of them for young productive vets with control. Thats how to extract the most likely value out of the farm system. If other GMs value our kids highly, that's even better. We can't play them all, so extract some real value now.

 

[KluberSociety]

Regardless of rankings or predicting which MIF prospects will be playing, this organization is headed for a logjam of MIFers and those that don't falter will have to be dealt. I don't recall ever seeing anything quite like it. With that in mind does anyone else think Amed's stock is increasing nicely?

I think Amed will be roughly the same value as to when we got him because he loses a year of control and hasn't changed drastically. I do think that when/if this logjam actually comes into fruition he could be the first to go. I see that more like possibly midseason 2022 or more likely 2023. Possibly he stays the whole time.

A lot really depends on our outfield situation. I don't see the gaps being filled internally for a while outside of maybe Amed moving over. If Mercado can be convincing enough with his ability to reasonably hit lefties we can run an outfield with Straw in CF, Amed on one corner and Zimmer-Mercado platooning on the other.

If Bradley or Naylor and Jones both come through though we wouldn't need that OF slot because we could just stick Jones in RF. Lots of conditionals, and a lot of things really have to go right fast for Amed to be expendable.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Maybe my view is warped by the fact that Amed is hitting .429 in his last 10 games, but I'm a big fan. His willingness to run hard on even routine ground balls is part of the attraction. His numbers were down somewhat from his 2019 season after he got off to a terrible start in April. But he has almost caught up.

2019 .287/.323/.432/.755 in 616 AB's (1.8 WAR)
2021 .279/.321/.396/.718 in 391 AB's (1.2 WAR)

The slugging percentage is down a bit but otherwise he's the same hitter at age 25 that he was at 23. If anything he should improve somewhat over the next few years. Hitters generally peak at age 27 and their best seasons are between ages 25-29.

I don't see any shortstops in our system that are better than Amed right now or who will be better in 2022. So Amed has the rest of this season and a big chunk of next year to establish himself as a .290/.770 hitter who plays a competent shortstop and can swipe a bag anytime you need it.

I think the ideal situation would be to trade him at the deadline as soon as Arias, Freeman, or Gimenez is ready to come close to matching his offense while providing superior defense.

 

[Kiddo]

Maybe my view is warped by the fact that Amed is hitting .429 in his last 10 games, but I'm a big fan. His willingness to run hard on even routine ground balls is part of the attraction. His numbers were down somewhat from his 2019 season after he got off to a terrible start in April. But he has almost caught up.

2019 .287/.323/.432/.755 in 616 AB's (1.8 WAR)
2021 .279/.321/.396/.718 in 391 AB's (1.2 WAR)

The slugging percentage is down a bit but otherwise he's the same hitter at age 25 that he was at 23. If anything he should improve somewhat over the next few years. Hitters generally peak at age 27 and their best seasons are between ages 25-29.

I don't see any shortstops in our system that are better than Amed right now or who will be better in 2022. So Amed has the rest of this season and a big chunk of next year to establish himself as a .290/.770 hitter who plays a competent shortstop and can swipe a bag anytime you need it.

I think the ideal situation would be to trade him at the deadline as soon as Arias, Freeman, or Gimenez is ready to come close to matching his offense while providing superior defense.

Amed's hustle has really stood out, you never see him jogging. If he keeps this up the Straw, Amed, Jose start to the lineup has a chance to be pretty special and will give Reyes many RBI chances.

 

[CDAV45]

I’m an Amed fan, but in no way shape or form do I ever want to see him playing a corner OF unless it’s as a late game defensive replacement.

 

[CDAV45]

Actually, it's quite typical....about 70% typical.

As Bimbo points out, defenders cover more ground in MLB.

But it also needs to be pointed out that MLB pitchers don't walk batters at nearly the rate as minor leaguers do, and they are very good at taking advantage of holes in a batters swing.

Walk rates seldom go up once a prospective power batter gets to the Bigs, and K rates seldom go down.

Look at Zimmers numbers in AA and AAA at ages 22-24. See the high K rates, high walk rates, high OBP. The look at his first season in Cleveland BEFORE he was hurt. High K rate, walk rate cut in half, low OBP.

Now look at Jones at age. Almost identical.

All this excitement over bringing up the kids, all this expectation that the kids will be automatically better than what we have. Trade vets like Hernandez and Amed, because they can easily be replaced. Trade pitchers like Plesac and TMac for the same reason

This years Tribe has brought up nine rookies that have never seen MLB. We have also played five that are rookies, but had a cup of coffee earlier.

All of them were prospects that some, or even a lot of fans, touted as instant improvements, sure fire producers.

It hasn't worked out that way. It very seldom works out that way.

I'd trade a lot of them for young productive vets with control. Thats how to extract the most likely value out of the farm system. If other GMs value our kids highly, that's even better. We can't play them all, so extract some real value now.

I understand what you’re saying CATS, but only about 10% of minor leaguers hit like Miller has. He’s a rare bird when talking about career minor league numbers. It wasn’t just at one level either. He’s hit everywhere but in Cleveland and that is a SSS.

 

[Lee]

I understand what you’re saying CATS, but only about 10% of minor leaguers hit like Miller has. He’s a rare bird when talking about career minor league numbers. It wasn’t just at one level either. He’s hit everywhere but in Cleveland and that is a SSS.

This is a general question piggy backing off of you.

So how do we handle Miller? We have to see if he can figure it out at the major league level right? He hit too well in the minors right?

Who else has been as good in the minors that bombed in the majors that I might know? Just curious, not a huge minor league expert.

 

[BimboColesHair]

This is a general question piggy backing off of you.

So how do we handle Miller? We have to see if he can figure it out at the major league level right? He hit too well in the minors right?

Who else has been as good in the minors that bombed in the majors that I might know? Just curious, not a huge minor league expert.

Just an Indians specific guy that comes to mind, similar hit type build with Miller too: Trevor Crowe.

 

[sportscoach]

This is a general question piggy backing off of you.

So how do we handle Miller? We have to see if he can figure it out at the major league level right? He hit too well in the minors right?

Who else has been as good in the minors that bombed in the majors that I might know? Just curious, not a huge minor league expert.

Miller they were hoping to be the second coming of Ben Zobrist on the baseball field. A guy who hits like an everyday player, but plays 5-6 positions during the season...

 

[CATS44]

This is a general question piggy backing off of you.

So how do we handle Miller? We have to see if he can figure it out at the major league level right? He hit too well in the minors right?

Who else has been as good in the minors that bombed in the majors that I might know? Just curious, not a huge minor league expert.

When looking for a comparative stat, I use wRC+... which tells us how a player did against average in whatever league he played in at any level.

Looking at Miller, who has ranged from 121 to 145 in his MiLB career, three players quickly come to mind...

Jake Bauers
Andy Marte
Nomar Mazara

I'm not down on Miller. I'm not down on our prospects as a whole. I'm not a fan of the high K guys with severe splits, and not high on 5-10 SPs...but overall we have an exciting group.

But when we start talking about prospects that will come up and make an immediate impact (you can define impact any way you choose, but I will set the bar at 2.5 fWAR, since so many think guys like Hernandez and Amed are easily replaced), it is unlikely that any position prospect is gonna do that immediately.

I'm only looking at the next two years, because we should be contending in those years, if we hold onto Jose and Biebs...which I expect. This org is not gonna tear the thing down, not with a new name and just signed lease. The backlash would be immense, and something that a financially limited franchise can't afford.

We can talk about three years or five years ahead, but there are just too many variables when we do that. If this team has back to back 75 win seasons, nobody will care about 2025-2027 anyway.

 

[CDAV45]

Miller they were hoping to be the second coming of Ben Zobrist on the baseball field. A guy who hits like an everyday player, but plays 5-6 positions during the season...

So you're saying they were hoping Miller was the next Ben Zobrist basically 4 yrs earlier than Ben Zobrist became "Ben Zobrist"? Look, I don't know if Miller is going to figure it out. Right now it appears that he needs to return to Columbus and come back next season with a fresh start. What I don't get are these comparisons. Although he might be more Ben Zobrist than we thought because Ben's first taste of MLB was at age 25 and he sucked bad. His age 26 season was even worse. He started to hit much better in his age 27 season. I'm willing to bet that Miller doesn't take that long to turn things around.

I'm not big on "similar players". I like to look at each individual and what they did at each level and age. Trevor Crowe played 10 minor league seasons and slashed 275/353/388/741. He made his major league debut in his age 26 season. In 3 seasons Miller has slashed 305/368/450/818 and is now at the highest level at age 24. Like I said, I don't know if he'll ever "right the ship" but based on his age and minor league track record, I'm willing to show some patience. Trust me when I say that nobody is more disappointed than I am with his performance so far, but I find it ironic that we're comparing him to lesser players or very good players that didn't perform as well as him at the same ages. In 182 AB in Columbus he hit 297/374/489/863. He deserved the promotion, now he may deserve a return trip to Columbus. That more often than not happens to the best of prospects.