Official CLE Midseason Prospect Rankings

[CATS44]

I think Bimbo is spot on with Trevor Crowe.

You can't go by OPS, because every league is different. An .800 OPS in the Eastern League may equal an .825 OPS in the Texas League, and we all know about the PCL.

But if you look at wRC+, Crowe is right on the money.

This year, the first that Miller has seen MLB pitching, his wRC+ in AAA was 130. The year that Crowe first made it to MLB, his OPS+ in AAA was 128.

Before that, its difficult to make an exact comparison, because Miller never switched levels mid season, while Crowe usually did. And Miller missed a season, because of Covid, while Crowe missed most of a season for injury. But overall, they were about equally productive in their MiLB careers, with Crowe having a slight advantage.

As for expecting a prospect to start off as veteran player at his peak is beyond foolish, but I dont think anybody really is comparing Miller to Zobrist. They are hoping that Miller becomes a Zobrist LIKE player...a super util guy.

But IMO, if we are truly looking for a Ben Zobrist, strictly a SS until he was 27 and turned into a super util guy, look at our 25 yr old SS.

 

[CDAV45]

I think Bimbo is spot on with Trevor Crowe.

You can't go by OPS, because every league is different. An .800 OPS in the Eastern League may equal an .825 OPS in the Texas League, and we all know about the PCL.

But if you look at wRC+, Crowe is right on the money.

This year, the first that Miller has seen MLB pitching, his wRC+ in AAA was 130. The year that Crowe first made it to MLB, his OPS+ in AAA was 128.

Before that, its difficult to make an exact comparison, because Miller never switched levels mid season, while Crowe usually did. And Miller missed a season, because of Covid, while Crowe missed most of a season for injury. But overall, they were about equally productive in their MiLB careers, with Crowe having a slight advantage.

As for expecting a prospect to start off as veteran player at his peak is beyond foolish, but I dont think anybody really is comparing Miller to Zobrist. They are hoping that Miller becomes a Zobrist LIKE player...a super util guy.

But IMO, if we are truly looking for a Ben Zobrist, strictly a SS until he was 27 and turned into a super util guy, look at our 25 yr old SS.

They were not "equally productive in their minor league careers" and get back to me when Miller is 26(2 yrs) if you're comparing him to Crowe. It's not a "spot on" comparison IMO no matter how you choose to suggest it. Age matters. Performance matters. Miller was better and younger and missed a full season due to a pandemic.

 

[DCTribefan]

Actually, it's quite typical....about 70% typical.

As Bimbo points out, defenders cover more ground in MLB.

But it also needs to be pointed out that MLB pitchers don't walk batters at nearly the rate as minor leaguers do, and they are very good at taking advantage of holes in a batters swing.

Walk rates seldom go up once a prospective power batter gets to the Bigs, and K rates seldom go down.

Look at Zimmers numbers in AA and AAA at ages 22-24. See the high K rates, high walk rates, high OBP. The look at his first season in Cleveland BEFORE he was hurt. High K rate, walk rate cut in half, low OBP.

Now look at Jones at age. Almost identical.

All this excitement over bringing up the kids, all this expectation that the kids will be automatically better than what we have. Trade vets like Hernandez and Amed, because they can easily be replaced. Trade pitchers like Plesac and TMac for the same reason

This years Tribe has brought up nine rookies that have never seen MLB. We have also played five that are rookies, but had a cup of coffee earlier.

All of them were prospects that some, or even a lot of fans, touted as instant improvements, sure fire producers.

It hasn't worked out that way. It very seldom works out that way.

I'd trade a lot of them for young productive vets with control. Thats how to extract the most likely value out of the farm system. If other GMs value our kids highly, that's even better. We can't play them all, so extract some real value now.

But who is trading young productive players under team control?

 

[CATS44]

They were not "equally productive in their minor league careers" and get back to me when Miller is 26(2 yrs) if you're comparing him to Crowe. It's not a "spot on" comparison IMO no matter how you choose to suggest it. Age matters. Performance matters. Miller was better and younger and missed a full season due to a pandemic.

Miller was not better or more productive than Crowe...but if you want to focus on just age and level, let's look at 24 yrs old at AAA.

Miller....10.2 BB%...25.2 K%...192 ISO...130 wRC+.

Crowe...9.1...26.2...212...126 wRC+.

But that was by far Crowe's worst season in walk rate and K rate, and his best in ISO. It was an anomaly. His normal rates were about 12% BB and 14% K. His ISO was usually a little over half that. He returned to those levels the next year.

Meanwhile, this years K rate and ISO were also Millers highest, while his BB rate is much higher than norm.

These two are very close overall in their MiLB careers.

 

[33Y0]

 

[sportscoach]

That low? The media is sure underestimating this crew....

 

[CATS44]

That low? The media is sure underestimating this crew....

Or we have been over estimating them.

It is kinda head scratching, though. I saw rankings preseason that had us anywhere from fifth to ninth...with comments that our teenage prospects would move us up.

We've graduated TMac, Miller,
and Bradley, but only TMac was rated highly enough to make a difference.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I say it every year, don't make me say it again...

 

[petes999]

The key is where did they have us before the season ... probably middle of pack. So far, our upper tier prospects haven't been on fire for a quick BA analysis to stop and say whoaaa .... let's rerank them up a lot.

Valera -- hitting for power recently but not average
Jones -- blocked by Ramirez and isn't hitting for average like others
Gimenez -- graduated
McK -- graduated
Bracho -- has regressed a bit
Tucker -- our first rounder -- hasn't played
Freeman -- doing good but got injured
Arias -- doing good/great but hidden a bit at AAA (if AA ... probably would have turned more heads).
Espino -- great K numbers but ERA up as he learns to pitch his secondaries
Hankins -- TJ
Torres -- Just coming off TJ
Burns -- just starting to hit his form recently


As Bimbo alluded to ... BA isn't going to really take a deep dive beyond the top tier prospects to make their top 100 list ... which we probably have a few on there but not really that high other than Jones.

 

[Gson]

The key is where did they have us before the season ... probably middle of pack. So far, our upper tier prospects haven't been on fire for a quick BA analysis to stop and say whoaaa .... let's rerank them up a lot.

Valera -- hitting for power recently but not average
Jones -- blocked by Ramirez and isn't hitting for average like others
Gimenez -- graduated
McK -- graduated
Bracho -- has regressed a bit
Tucker -- our first rounder -- hasn't played
Freeman -- doing good but got injured
Arias -- doing good/great but hidden a bit at AAA (if AA ... probably would have turned more heads).
Espino -- great K numbers but ERA up as he learns to pitch his secondaries
Hankins -- TJ
Torres -- Just coming off TJ
Burns -- just starting to hit his form recently


As Bimbo alluded to ... BA isn't going to really take a deep dive beyond the top tier prospects to make their top 100 list ... which we probably have a few on there but not really that high other than Jones.

@petes999 preseason system rankings were a high into the top ten to a low of 18th.. IOW..close to the top third but at least upper half..

...and Bimbo's comments didn't so much address the talent level of the Indians prospects so much as the source of information BA relies upon to create their rating.. Put simply.. If BA gets data in the amount of 30 pounds of information for each team (one pound for each).. the sources for the Indians are less than a pound. This biases the results w/r to the rating for the Indians farm system.. Ratings are what they are..useful and useless...

 

[33Y0]

 

[bigfoot5415]

I say it every year, don't make me say it again...

?

 

[BimboColesHair]

?

The Indians, unlike ~90% of the league, do not share detailed information on their prospects with ranking services or provide scouting department videos to them. Means if you want to get a good idea of how good their farm system is you have to go to the games yourself to see them. BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLB.com, etc. don’t have that kind of manpower, especially for how many games you would need to see an individual player play in order to get a good idea of them as a player.

 

[sportscoach]

The Indians, unlike ~90% of the league, do not share detailed information on their prospects with ranking services or provide scouting department videos to them. Means if you want to get a good idea of how good their farm system is you have to go to the games yourself to see them. BA, BP, Frangraphs, MLB.com, etc. don’t have that kind of manpower, especially for how many games you would need to see an individual player play in order to get a good idea of them as a player.

I think we still wish for them to get more recognition ya know?

What would be your updated prospect list? You can probably give a lot better one than a lot of places could...

 

[LL3]

The Indians, unlike ~90% of the league, do not share detailed information on their prospects with ranking services or provide scouting department videos to them. Means if you want to get a good idea of how good their farm system is you have to go to the games yourself to see them. BA, BP, Frangraphs, MLB.com, etc. don’t have that kind of manpower, especially for how many games you would need to see an individual player play in order to get a good idea of them as a player.

Do they "not share" because they see it as some sort of competitive advantage? ...or is it just time/effort they do not want expend in that fashion? Other?
I mean, I know the answer...I am just asking for @sportscoach ...he wants to know.