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OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
NFL betting remains the god-damn 9th wonder of the world.....like how? It's literally throwing darts in the dark.

Honestly, does anybody have a reputable source that is cleaning up in NFL picks? Id like to see it...I'm being genuine.

Are you able to touch on the model you use a little more for college picks? What goes into it? I'm curious how you're cleaning up.
 
NFL betting remains the god-damn 9th wonder of the world.....like how? It's literally throwing darts in the dark.

Honestly, does anybody have a reputable source that is cleaning up in NFL picks? Id like to see it...I'm being genuine.
Yeah, my ass is grass when it comes to the NFL.
 
Are you able to touch on the model you use a little more for college picks? What goes into it? I'm curious how you're cleaning up.

I don’t use models, and if people are uncomfortable with that, cool. I’m
Not charging a fee and I’m not guaranteeing picks.

I don’t want to come across as brash or condescending, but I use the eye test. I watch an insane amount of college football, and formulate picks based off that. But I also use Vegas’s lack of info against them, which is why hitting Vegas hard in the first few weeks is critical.

27-5 is abnormal.....prob seems flukey. But if you follow the game right, I don’t know.....sometimes it’s pretty easy to call.

Slight background on me.....I worked 3 years in a major athletic department entirely focused on basketball. I love sports, but am most passionate about college football. I gamble heavily, but tend to stick to American sports because international gaming is absurd......thrown matches everywhere.

If you go back and research my picks, I've been solid on here, beyond this season. 27-5 good, no.....but good.

I do use my own method of making picks, but it's certainly different than evaluating raw data. Raw data in college football is meaningless for many reasons. If you want me to explain I will, but I also kinda think it should be self evident.....schedules ARE NOT one in the same. Using college data is absurd!!!! It's skewed, it favors certain conferences, and it's just wrong, period.

If theres a question why I lean a certain way in a specific game, I'd prefer the direct question rather than asking where my data comes from. There is literally no data other than me researching, myself, recent past game performances, and motivation for playing well going forward. And I don't tail anyone. It's a feel for the game using my own reasoning and logic.
 
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I don’t use models, and if people are uncomfortable with that, cool. I’m
Not charging a fee and I’m not guaranteeing picks.

I don’t want to come across as brash or condescending, but I use the eye test. I watch an insane amount of college football, and formulate picks based off that. But I also use Vegas’s lack of info against them, which is why hitting Vegas hard in the first few weeks is critical.

27-5 is abnormal.....prob seems flukey. But if you follow the game right, I don’t know.....sometimes it’s pretty easy to call.

Slight background on me.....I worked 3 years in a major athletic department entirely focused on basketball. I love sports, but am most passionate about college football. I gamble heavily, but tend to stick to American sports because international gaming is absurd......thrown matches everywhere.

If you go back and research my picks, I've been solid on here, beyond this season. 27-5 good, no.....but good.

I do use my own method of making picks, but it's certainly different than evaluating raw data. Raw data in college football is meaningless for many reasons. If you want me to explain I will, but I also kinda think it should be self evident.....
As someone who mines data constantly as a part of my job, but have never applied it to sports, I’d be interested in hearing more
 
As someone who mines data constantly as a part of my job, but have never applied it to sports, I’d be interested in hearing more

Can you run a statistical test to compare 27-5 to 16-16? I am curious how many standard deviations this is away from pure chance.
 
“IT” factor has been on point for Bill and I’ve certainly reaped the rewards.
 
Can you run a statistical test to compare 27-5 to 16-16? I am curious how many standard deviations this is away from pure chance.
So I’m going to equate pure chance to a coin flip so I’ll call the chance of a win 50%

using a binomial distribution, with 32 games and the chance of a win at 50%, there is a 0.0057% chance that you correctly pick 27 or more games

if you were to say that Bill has a special talent for this and on average can pick a winner 65% of the time, the odds of hitting at least 27 of 32 games jumps to a crisp 1.35%
 
I meant specifically his last paragraph about raw data being meaningless

Meaningless is probably harsh....more data the better, right?

The problem is in how teams are compared and rated in college football. Maybe I get burned using this example, but let's look at UF and LSU. Both teams undefeated, LSU ranked #5, UF ranked #7.

UF has the 5TH rated defense in the country right now according to raw data.......allowing 9.5 points per game. Which sounds amazing, until you see their opponents have been:

Miami, FL - been awful, UF gave up 20 pts
TN-Martin - Shut them out.....congrats UF!!!
Kentucky - gave up 21 points to back-up QB
Tennessee - gave up 3 points...impressive, but again TN has been awful and QB just lost job
Towson - Shut them out....congrats UF!!!
Auburn - gave up 13 points....impressive, but is Auburn really who we think they are?

Even as someone who has hit Auburn twice this football season on bets (against Tulane and Miss St) Auburn has been far from dominant or what I'd consider a top 10 team. My issue are things like FPI (football power index) and prognostications based on how a team should perform, in relation to rankings. Auburn hung 56 on Miss St, so their offense must be damn good, right? Well, no. Miss St gave up 28 to UL-Laf and got handled by Kansas St. Why Miss St was being regarded as fringe top 25 team going into the Auburn game is beyond me.

UF's defense is being billed as elite right now, and should be able to keep UF in this game against LSU. Is their defense elite, or is it a product of playing Towson, TN-Martin, a back-up QB at KY, and giving a True Freshman (Bo Nix) a tough time on the road in his first big SEC game?

I guess my point is this....the variance is so wide in college football, a lot of the metrics are meaningless to me. Someone telling me UF's defense is rate dthe 5th best in the country.....it's absurd to me. Yeah, they're good, but how do we quantify it against LSU, who's given up 38 points at Texas, and 38 points at Vanderbilt? I'm certainly not going to compare the defenses when we're taking teams like TN-Martin, Georgia Southern, NW State, and Towson into play. It's ridiculous to me.

When did back-ups come in, what injuries do we need to account for, was it home vs away, was it a noon kick-off or PM kick-off?

All that stuff matters, and the raw data doesn't account for a majority of it.

Again, I happen to think LSU lays the wood to UF tomorrow. It's a night game, on a Saturday, at LSU, with UF starting their back-up QB (although I think he's as good as Franks) and I don't believe UF is tested at all yet. Their first SEC road test was a squeaker against KY and their back-up QB. UF played well against Auburn last weekend, but comparing Joey Burrow and Bo Nix is insulting to Burrow. And that game was at UF...tomorrow's game is at LSU.

So we'll see....the data essentially calls for an LSU 13 point victory at this point. I don't trust the data, because I think it's over-inflating UF's defense primarily, I think it's undervaluing LSU's defense, and I think the night-game advantage will be huge at Death Valley on a Saturday night. I also think Burrow >>>> Trask.

And all this to say....when I initially saw the line of LSU -13.......I didn't go and research raw data. I did go and look at their individual schedules, some extenuating circumstances, and immediately came up with a gut feel that LSU is a but undervalued, and UF is being way overvalued. In my mind that equates to an LSU advantage. But I don't need FPI's, total team defense or offense, for me to get to that conclusion. I've seen multiple UF games and been pretty underwhelmed even though they're ranked #7, and I've seen a lot of LSU football, and been pretty damn impressed, especially with a road win at Texas and then hanging 66 and 42 points in noon games, in what most would describe as sneaky trap games. Utah State is respectable, and while Vanderbilt isn't good, it was a noon kickoff, and their (LSU) offense came out humming. Against Utah State the offense was a bit stagnant, but you saw how dominant their defense can be.

Anyways....just my thought process spelled out.

Extrapolated to this weeks picks...

I've watched Wake multiple times and find them to be better offensively than their average points per game, but I think their coach also plays strategically to his defense. The Louisville QB just isn't very good, and with the game at Wake, my gut says Wake handles business by 7+ points. I also think the ACC is rooting for a solid Wake team because the conference is down thus far, and having an undefeated Wake gives them a small boost. At home, with some home cooking makes sense to me (having worked in college sports although basketball, "cooking" from the referees is a real thing).

ND -11.5 vs USC....USC using back-up QB, ND has been hanging a lot of points, game at ND, and USC is definition of average. Helton is a dead man walking, and ND is still fighting for playoff if they can get a few breaks, and Kelly knows every win needs to be as impressive as possible. I think this is a spot where ND comes out with all cylinders firing.

FSU +26.5....again, a bit of an eye test thing. FSU has looked better last few weeks after a rough start, and Kendall Briles is starting to figure his personnel out. I don't think they have any chance of beating Clemson, but I also think Clemson has been very under-whelming, their offense is struggling to find a rhythm, and the defense isn't nearly as good as last year. I think my faith relies mostly in Kendall Briles to find a way to put some points on the board, and keep it within that 26.5 range.

UCONN +35 vs Tulane....again, limited raw data here, other than looking at UCONN's schedule, seeing they aren't very good, but have stayed with 35 of teams I'd deem better than Tulane (Indiana and UCF). Granted, game is at Tulane, but I watched second half of UCONN vs UCF, and while UCF had already wrapped it up, UCONN played with pride, scored some points, and looked respectable. Maybe Tulane trounces them....it's possible. I just think UCONN can keep it within 5 touchdowns. It's a lot of points.
 
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24.05-17

NFL
Giants -17 $50--thought I had a chance at halftime
Bucs +2.5 $50
Bucs ML $50
Browns +2 $100
Browns ML $50
Eagles +3 $100
Eagles ML $50
Broncos -2 $100


College
Miami -1 $50
Michigan -21.5 $100
Texas +10.5 $100
Temple +6 $100
Army -4.5 $50
Florida +13 $50
 
I jinxed the duck out of Mac...

I never have once bet each game but today I did and my luck is NO BUENO.

next week I’ll leave it to you guys to win the fucking cash
 
24.05-17

NFL
Giants -17 $50
Bucs +2.5 $50
Bucs ML $50
Browns +2 $100
Browns ML $50
Eagles +3 $100
Eagles ML $50
Broncos -2 $100


College 2.5-2.0
Miami -1 $50
Michigan -21.5 $100--up 28 to O and the give up 25 straight.
Texas +10.5 $100
Temple +6 $100

Army -4.5 $50
Florida +13 $50--1st and goal from the 2 to cover WTF
 

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