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OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

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UCLA QB fumbling that attempted throw is probably not a great sign, if you're into that sort of thing.
 
FAU under Lane Kiffin is 1-3 (0-2 last yr) ATS against ranked teams. OSU at -27.5, I'll be taking that one.
 
Good God. Genius pick by me to go with FIU. They look lost.
 
Adding Clemson -36

GT is returning almost nobody, completely transforming their offense, and Clemson's offense nearly all returns. Additionally, Clemson backup QB Chase Brice is not a bad player, and has experience on the field for the anticipated second team switch in the 2H.

Big number, but there is a reason for it.

This helped me feel better about having watched that UCLA performance.
 
This helped me feel better about having watched that UCLA performance.

I went 2-1, went ahead and threw a small, late bet on BYU +6. I may regret it, but felt like they would be able to keep it close, at worst.

We will see.

What are people liking for tomorrow’s slate?
 
I cannot speak on behalf of the site AZ recommended, but be careful with the promotions where the site matches your deposit or at the very least read the terms & conditions very carefully, as well as the article below. Can make cashing out very difficult.

If they didn’t have stuff like this they’d attract people like me who have no interest in sports gambling but view betting heavy favorites as a very low risk way to walk away with the bonus and whatever small winnings I made on betting heavy favorites

Don’t think it’s them trying to get one over on people, but instead them trying to prevent people from getting one over on them
 
College is my strong suit.

Started 2-0 on season with Miami covering 7.5 points and Hawaii was easy money with game in Honolulu and being given 11.

My 5 strongest games this week are:

KY -12 vs Toledo. KY coming off 10-3 season and finished season ranked #10. They lost some talent, but Stoops is livid with lack of respect. Toledo was 7-6 last year and can be game opponents, but I like KY to send a message.

LSU -27.5 vs Ga Southern. I just think LSU has the horses on both sides of the ball to dominate this game beginning to end,

Syr -18 vs Liberty. Liberty’s off-season has been a mess with Hugh Freeze legitimately running the program with walkie talkies from his hotel to practice field bc he’s been dealing with back issues. Dino Babers has Cuse going in right direction and I think Cuse handles business.

Hou +23 vs OU. Prob my least confident pick but Hou has some talent and I love getting 3 TDs +.....could see OU starting a little slow. D’Eriq King brings some tough elements for a recently historically bad OU defense.

TX -20.5 vs La Tech. I think Herman wants to send an early message and get these guys in national discussion. I think covering the spread is important to him for perception. I like TX at that line even tho LA Tech runs a solid mid major program.

I’m 2-0 on season. I feel like I’ve got a strong slate with these 5 picks.
 
If they didn’t have stuff like this they’d attract people like me who have no interest in sports gambling but view betting heavy favorites as a very low risk way to walk away with the bonus and whatever small winnings I made on betting heavy favorites

Don’t think it’s them trying to get one over on people, but instead them trying to prevent people from getting one over on them

For sure, there is a very valid reason for why they are in place. Just something all bettors should know prior to registering.
 
Here is what my algorithm has for tonight's games:

Army 40, Rice 16
Wisconsin 36, South Florida 26
Michigan State 29, Tulsa 13
Rutgers 34, UMass 25
Utah State 38, Wake Forest 29
Purdue 29, Nevada 28
Colorado 33, Colorado State 30
Oklahoma State 52, Oregon State 31

So far, the system is 5-3 ATS. In games I've moved forward on, I've been 4-2.

I think I'm gonna play Army, USF, Utah State and Oklahoma State today. We'll see, still thinking on it.
 
Here is what my algorithm has for tonight's games:

Utah State 38, Wake Forest 29

What would drive a 9 point road win for Utah State as a dog?

Wake is getting a ton of action late here, as people have been assessing lines.

I mentioned that game earlier and it pushed as high as -5 and has settled back in at -4.5.

I'm curious what metrics indicate a potential 2 TD swing against the spread.
 
What would drive a 9 point road win for Utah State as a dog?

Wake is getting a ton of action late here, as people have been assessing lines.

I mentioned that game earlier and it pushed as high as -5 and has settled back in at -4.5.

I'm curious what metrics indicate a potential 2 TD swing against the spread.

It's a good question.

There are certain downfalls to my statistics-based ranking and projections system. Admittedly, this is also the first time I've ever used Phil Steele's projections as a base within the system.

But, it essentially adjusts teams ability based on what they accomplished against the teams they've played. Since it's week one, I'm using the season-long projections for each team. So the projections are only as good as Steele's estimations. ALSO, in the past, it has had difficulty with certain types of games. This is probably one of those.

Here is how the system rates both teams:
Utah State: 31st overall, 20th offense, 53rd defense
Wake Forest: 79th overall, 44th offense, 96th defense

This is what it spits out as a projection for the game:
RushPassTotalOYPPScore
Utah State164.0262.3426.311.337.6
Wake Forest169.2211.5380.613.1228.9

I'm really just evaluating how this does this year and playing some really small bets until I have more data.

Usually, around week five it starts hitting pretty well once I have solid data from this season to use, instead of projections.
 
It's a good question.

There are certain downfalls to my statistics-based ranking and projections system. Admittedly, this is also the first time I've ever used Phil Steele's projections as a base within the system.

But, it essentially adjusts teams ability based on what they accomplished against the teams they've played. Since it's week one, I'm using the season-long projections for each team. So the projections are only as good as Steele's estimations. ALSO, in the past, it has had difficulty with certain types of games. This is probably one of those.

Here is how the system rates both teams:
Utah State: 31st overall, 20th offense, 53rd defense
Wake Forest: 79th overall, 44th offense, 96th defense

This is what it spits out as a projection for the game:
RushPassTotalOYPPScore
Utah State164.0262.3426.311.337.6
Wake Forest169.2211.5380.613.1228.9

I'm really just evaluating how this does this year and playing some really small bets until I have more data.

Usually, around week five it starts hitting pretty well once I have solid data from this season to use, instead of projections.

To break down the Utah State game a bit further (I'm also a little worried about them because they only return like two starters on offense).

Projections (Took Phil Steele's projected stats and adjusted them based on how well those teams would have done against their schedule)
Utah State 83rd in the nation in projected rushing yards, 44th in projected passing yards, 42nd in rushing yards allowed and 75th and passing yards allowed

Wake Forest 32nd in rushing, 82nd in passing, 92nd in rushing defense and 94th in passing defense

It seems like the algo just likes the matchup for Utah State. It thinks they are going to be a very efficient team this year.

It's hard to project this sort of thing, but I really like the Yards Per Point stat, which kind of boils down the scoring efficiency of your team. It projects Utah State to finish second in the nation in offensive yards per point. This means it projects them to take care of the football and get good field position etc.

It's so early in the season though and I don't have much of a sample size to evaluate how the system is doing, but I always think it's a nice guideline that I can then pick which games to consider. Then I do further research before making a call. Stay tuned.
 
To break down the Utah State game a bit further (I'm also a little worried about them because they only return like two starters on offense).

Projections (Took Phil Steele's projected stats and adjusted them based on how well those teams would have done against their schedule)
Utah State 83rd in the nation in projected rushing yards, 44th in projected passing yards, 42nd in rushing yards allowed and 75th and passing yards allowed

Wake Forest 32nd in rushing, 82nd in passing, 92nd in rushing defense and 94th in passing defense

It seems like the algo just likes the matchup for Utah State. It thinks they are going to be a very efficient team this year.

It's hard to project this sort of thing, but I really like the Yards Per Point stat, which kind of boils down the scoring efficiency of your team. It projects Utah State to finish second in the nation in offensive yards per point. This means it projects them to take care of the football and get good field position etc.

It's so early in the season though and I don't have much of a sample size to evaluate how the system is doing, but I always think it's a nice guideline that I can then pick which games to consider. Then I do further research before making a call. Stay tuned.

The system is definitely more of a guide than it is something to just blindly go with. Even in my best years, it was still hitting right around 60% against the spread. The way to really have success with it is to figure out its weaknesses and use it to add context to decision making.

It can make me look like a genius on games like Clemson vs GA Tech (it projected a 37-point win and Clemson won by 38) or it can make me look like a jackass (it projected FIU to win outright as an underdog but they lost by 24.)
 
Ended up going 2-1.

I stayed off of USF, thank God, because they got destroyed.

I put double on Oklahoma St. (who barely covered), and then put single bets on Army and Utah State. Army was a tough loss, but Utah State was respectable.

Decent day, time to get after it tomorrow.

Call me crazy, but I'm thinking for the early sets, I'm going to let Ohio carry me. The projections like the MAC teams but actually hate OSU. I'm going with my gut on OSU.

OSU -27.5
Toledo +11
Akron +18
 
Landed on these for the Noon games:

OSU -27 v FAU

Fields likely playing the majority of this game, should have OSU getting close to the 45-50 point barrier that should lock this.


Akron +18 at Illinois

I’m not betting on any Lovie Smith team to cover two touchdowns, take my money if I’m wrong.


Toledo +10 at Kentucky

Toledo’s QB can run a little bit and Kentucky lost a ton of really good talent.


NC State -17.5 vs ECU

ECU is very bad, and NCSU can ride Ricky Person all day while their set of wide receivers is still impressive also. They should score enough to make this number.



Will check back in when I’m 0-4.
 

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