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OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

SixPACK

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Went 2-1 to start the year. Not great, not terrible.

Wisky/Stanford covered. Toledo blew that game. Was so frustrating to watch.

I will look at the spreads tomorrow and see what I like for a couple 3-teamer parlays. May end up doing 1 college/1 pro
 

billmac91

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Anyone have a good site to give me a crash course on sports betting? Just became legal in here my state of WV last week.
I don't necessarily have a good site to use, but generally a pretty good rule to follow is the 3% system.

Determine how much you are going to put into your sports betting pot (kitty) and never bet more than 3% of your kitty on a game.

For games you just want action on cause it's on TV, but you haven't done any research, no more than 1%.

For games you have a good feeling about, but not extremely confident about, no more than 2%.

For games you have a great feeling about and are supremely confident, 3%.

It doesn't sound like a lot per bet....if your kitty is $500 initially, you're talking about:

-1% - $5
-2% - $10
-3% - $15

But it accomplishes two things. You will not bust using this system. It takes extreme discipline to stick to it, but if you do, you will start adding to your bankroll as long as you aren't horrible at making picks. It also gives you a good reference point for shit bets (don't do more than 1%). This way you aren't on tilt after a horrible bet 5 mins before kickoff....a 1% loss to your banking pot is easily regained.

The other great thing it does, is it governs overconfidence. So many people get crazy good vibes heading into a game they like, and put WAY TOO much of their pot in the middle. All of a sudden you lose that game, and everyone loses games they feel really good about, and now you're chasing a huge chunk of money because Ohio State couldn't do dick after going up 28-0 in their first four drives. Losing 3% doesn't feel good, but it also doesn't have you freaking out cause you just lost $250 and 50% of your pot. A $15 loss is very manageable.

I've been using this system a few years now and it's been great. I especially like it in football season. I use some other strategies in NBA and baseball, but I never exceed my 3% rule on a single bet. My pot grows slower, but you also don't bust. And as long as your 3% picks hit more frequently than they lose, you will be in good shape.
 

I'mWithDan

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First glance, a few stuck out on the early games

Colorado moneyline looks pretty nice as a home dog. +165

Purdue -7 home against Vandy.

Marshall +12 @Boise State

Probably like the Buffs the most out of all the early games.
 

Juice Is Loose

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First glance, a few stuck out on the early games

Colorado moneyline looks pretty nice as a home dog. +165

Purdue -7 home against Vandy.

Marshall +12 @Boise State

Probably like the Buffs the most out of all the early games.
Disagree on the Boise. Their offense looked damn good once they got rolling. Bachmeier looks like a stud as a true freshman. Marshall played VMI, can't judge them off that one much.
 

Triplethreat

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I don’t care what the line is a lot of money is going on the Browns this week.

Give me a little week 1 extra edginess.
 

Juice Is Loose

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I don’t care what the line is a lot of money is going on the Browns this week.

Give me a little week 1 extra edginess.
I’ve seen it around -5.5 to -6.5. With that stadium rocking, I definitely think we’re a touchdown better than Tenn
 

I'mWithDan

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Disagree on the Boise. Their offense looked damn good once they got rolling. Bachmeier looks like a stud as a true freshman. Marshall played VMI, can't judge them off that one much.
Marshall is an undervalued team early. They won 9 games last year and are experienced. Coupled with let down potential for Boise, I’m curious to see where this line ends up. I see it down to 10.5 in a few places already, so it may get the value squeezed out of it.

Boise gave up a ton of big plays against FSU. I’d take 12 all day against them with a team like Marshall......who is going to hit big plays and score points.
 
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billmac91

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@billmac91 you land on your picks yet this week?
I’m sticking with my original 5, and did my max bet (3%) on each of them. Nothing I’ve seen this week takes me off my initial thoughts. A few games have moved .5 to 1 point in either direction which may make a difference. I’d buy a .5 point on KY at -14.5 now (on Bovada but I got it in on Tues).


KY -14 vs Eastern Michigan
Stoops has done a nice job with that program. They're pretty stout defensively even with their losses from last year, and have enough talent on offense. Like last week against Toledo, I think KY opens it up in second half. I think Toledo is better than Eastern Michigan and Kentucky would've covered -14. At home for KY again which is big.

UCF - 10 vs FAU
Game is at FAU, so some cause for concern, but FAU didn't show me much offensively against OSU, and FAU is likely without their best RB. UCF will score on that defense, and while I expect FAU to put some points up, I don;t think they can stay within 10 of UCF.

Bowling Green +24 vs Kansas St
I don't have a ton of info on this game other than Bowling Green's solid week 1 performance. Kansas St handled Nichols St 49-14 in week 1, but Nichols State isn't as good as Bowling Green. 24 just feels like a lot to me. I know Bowling Green was brutal last year, but I think Loefller does enough to keep Bowling Green respectable in this one.

Washington -13.5 vs Cal
I love Chris Peterson in this one. He has his most NFL talented QB in Jacob Eason, that I can recall (in terms of arm strength) and their defense should be solid again. Game is at home so added comfort. Cal struggled through a 27-13 win vs UC Davis last weekend. I think Washington covers pretty easily.

Auburn -19 vs Tulane.
Tulane is a solid mid-major and a respectable team. But I like Auburn here, riding high off a huge win vs Oregon. I think Malzahn has enough outside weapons and Bo Nix is capable of managing the game. Tulane will struggle putting points up in this one, and I think Auburn will physically dominate just about every part of this game.

I’m also leaning Stanford pretty hard with JT Daniels out at QB. Stanford is currently +1 dog, going against True Freshman Kedon Slovis. Im a bit surprised Stanford isn’t a 2-3 pt favorite. Will prob do a 2% bet on this. Almost seems too obvious....

My favorite game of the week is Auburn. Just have a feeling they are too much for Tulane. Surprised that line has gone to -18.....wish I waited until later in week for the extra point. I thought it’d slide closer to 20 or 21.
 
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billmac91

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I have far more success with college, but I’m laying two prop bets tonight.

Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 TD throws at -160

David Montgomery over 16.5 receiving yards at -130

I’m not comfortable with the line, or point total over/under.

Just two solid bets I think are very probable to happen.
 

chrisrich91

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Wanted to start NFL season on an easy note so I teased a Packers + under parlay. Clearly didn’t need to do that. :chuckle: Also did a couple game props.

Parlay
Packers +10 (teased from +3)
with Under 53.5 (from 46.5): -140

Props
1st score of the game FG or Safety: +140
No scoring in final 2:00 of 1st Half: +220

Hit on all 3 which means I’ll get cocky and start doing stupid shit as soon as tomorrow.
 

natedagg

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Wanted to start NFL season on an easy note so I teased a Packers + under parlay. Clearly didn’t need to do that. :chuckle: Also did a couple game props.

Parlay
Packers +10 (teased from +3)
with Under 53.5 (from 46.5): -140

Props
1st score of the game FG or Safety: +140
No scoring in final 2:00 of 1st Half: +220

Hit on all 3 which means I’ll get cocky and start doing stupid shit as soon as tomorrow.
Nice work. Maybe try and post them before the game starts so people like me can tail you.
 

SixPACK

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Didn't see billmac's picks before I rolled with mine, but here is my 4-teamer for Saturday. $15 to win $185


Maryland (-1.5) vs Syracuse
Both teams shut out their opponent last week, even though they aren't teams to write home about. I think Maryland, at home, will try and air raid their way to victory. Think the home crowd will help, as well. Think it will be close, but think Maryland will cover and of course, win the game.

Stanford (+1) vs USC
Wanna start that I took this game BEFORE Costello was ruled out. Now it's a battle of the backups. Also, Stanford's LT is out. Don't actually know why I took this game. Was feeling spicy after a few beers. I still like Stanford's backup over USC's. Should be a shitty/ugly game, hoping Stanford can pull this one out. Stay away from this one. Fuck me.

Michigan (-22) vs Army
Army's triple-option vs UM's retooled defense. UM will be better this week. At home. Army is on a 10-game win streak. Michigan's goal is to get Army in 3rd & long's and then they are fucked. People are riding Army hard this game, I couldn't go with it. Think Michigan will go deep & often on Army.

Auburn (-17.5) vs Tulane
Read billmac's. Auburn will be too much.

We'll see.

2019-2020 record: 2-0
 
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AZ_

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Added Wake Forest -19.5

Rice is still bad, after all.
 

Randolphkeys

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Thinking about the over on Colorado vs. Nebraska. I think they are going to score some points in that one.
 

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