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OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

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billmac91 said:
Just put my picks in for CFB on Saturday....liked the lines where they’re at so jumped now. A little off the board on most games but it’s where I see the value....

Syr -6 vs Western Mich....get right game for Cuse after two tough weeks. They actually looked decent against Clemson for a while....think they win by 10+..game at home for Cuse

Wash -6 vs BYU...BYU has been bad, Washington struggled vs Cal but they’re a solid team....think Washington is undervalued here...game at BYU

UAB -10 vs Southern Alabama....UAB good mid major, undefeated. Southern Bama not very good. Game at UAB

Coastal Carolina -17 vs UMASS....UMASS has been bludgeoned every game, including against trash (Rutgers). Coastal Carolina is a decent squad (beat Kansas at Kansas a few weeks ago)...game at UMASS

Texas -5 vs Okie State....OSU hasn’t played anyone yet. Texas shouldn’t have issues pounding ball and putting points up. Gundy makes me a little nervous but I like the physicality Texas plays with offensively, and their efficiency in short yardage (just like JT Barrett at Ohio State). Texas gets the hard yards. Game at Texas.
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To piggy back off this, UAB is coming off a bye as well.

Kinda like AZ Cards +2.5 at home against Carolina.
 
billmac91 said:
Just put my picks in for CFB on Saturday....liked the lines where they’re at so jumped now. A little off the board on most games but it’s where I see the value....

Syr -6 vs Western Mich....get right game for Cuse after two tough weeks. They actually looked decent against Clemson for a while....think they win by 10+..game at home for Cuse

Wash -6 vs BYU...BYU has been bad, Washington struggled vs Cal but they’re a solid team....think Washington is undervalued here...game at BYU

UAB -10 vs Southern Alabama....UAB good mid major, undefeated. Southern Bama not very good. Game at UAB

Coastal Carolina -17 vs UMASS....UMASS has been bludgeoned every game, including against trash (Rutgers). Coastal Carolina is a decent squad (beat Kansas at Kansas a few weeks ago)...game at UMASS

Texas -5 vs Okie State....OSU hasn’t played anyone yet. Texas shouldn’t have issues pounding ball and putting points up. Gundy makes me a little nervous but I like the physicality Texas plays with offensively, and their efficiency in short yardage (just like JT Barrett at Ohio State). Texas gets the hard yards. Game at Texas.
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I like all of these games as well, save Coastal. They just really struggle to consistently score, because Payton is so limited throwing. He's in the bottom 30% in passing yards per game and he's tied for 3rd for most INT's through 3 games (4). I think UMASS stinks but 17 is a lot to lay for a team that needs to grind out drives on the ground. UMASS has managed to score 17-20 per game this season. So you peg Coastal needing 35-38 points on the road to cover. That is just a lot for a one dimensional offense.
 
I'mWithDan said:
I like all of these games as well, save Coastal. They just really struggle to consistently score, because Payton is so limited throwing. He's in the bottom 30% in passing yards per game and he's tied for 3rd for most INT's through 3 games (4). I think UMASS stinks but 17 is a lot to lay for a team that needs to grind out drives on the ground. UMASS has managed to score 17-20 per game this season. So you peg Coastal needing 35-38 points on the road to cover. That is just a lot for a one dimensional offense.
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The flipside of this is UMASS has lost:

48-21 to a bad Rutgers team
45-20 to a bad Southeast Missouri team
52-17 to a bad UNC-Charlotte team

Coastal Carolina's offense may be one-dimensional, but my spidey senses tell me it's in the neighborhood of Rutgers, SE Missouri, and UNC Charlotte.

It wouldn't shock me if Coastal came out and played mediocre and game was tight....but I think it's much more likely they treat UMASS like they did Norfolk State last weekend which was a 46-7 win.
 
billmac91 said:
Just put my picks in for CFB on Saturday....liked the lines where they’re at so jumped now. A little off the board on most games but it’s where I see the value....

Syr -6 vs Western Mich....get right game for Cuse after two tough weeks. They actually looked decent against Clemson for a while....think they win by 10+..game at home for Cuse

Wash -6 vs BYU...BYU has been bad, Washington struggled vs Cal but they’re a solid team....think Washington is undervalued here...game at BYU

UAB -10 vs Southern Alabama....UAB good mid major, undefeated. Southern Bama not very good. Game at UAB

Coastal Carolina -17 vs UMASS....UMASS has been bludgeoned every game, including against trash (Rutgers). Coastal Carolina is a decent squad (beat Kansas at Kansas a few weeks ago)...game at UMASS

Texas -5 vs Okie State....OSU hasn’t played anyone yet. Texas shouldn’t have issues pounding ball and putting points up. Gundy makes me a little nervous but I like the physicality Texas plays with offensively, and their efficiency in short yardage (just like JT Barrett at Ohio State). Texas gets the hard yards. Game at Texas.
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I actually have a 3-teamer with:

Syracuse (got it at -5)
Coastal (same at -17)
Texas (have mine 1 more point at -6)

So let's go!
 
Why is Michigan St. favored by 9.5 over a team who has beaten them 3 consecutive years and just lost to ASU at home while losing perhaps their best OL?

Is Northwestern truly that bad?
 
AZ_ said:
Why is Michigan St. favored by 9.5 over a team who has beaten them 3 consecutive years and just lost to ASU at home while losing perhaps their best OL?

Is Northwestern truly that bad?
Click to expand...

Why don’t you bet them and find out? :chuckle:
 
Triplethreat said:
Why don’t you bet them and find out? :chuckle:
Click to expand...

I mean, I certainly might.

But this seems like one of those “Vegas knows” type of lines.

It doesn’t make a ton of sense on paper, short of them being confident in northwestern’s terribleness.
 
Games I like this weekend:

Utah -4 @ USC. MGM even has this at -3.5. USC's win against Stanford looks increasingly weak. Moss is just a stud. USC is 71st in the country against the run in YPG and is giving up 4 YPC. I think Utah is going to lean on their D, which is underrated and just grind USC in to a pulp on the ground.

Michigan +3.5 @Wisconsin. Runyan is healthy and ready to go. There's a chance Peoples-Jones is back too. I think this is the week Michigan's offense breaks out. Also, 2 weeks to prepare for the Wisconsin offense should be plenty for Don Brown to slow it down....I think Michigan's DL has a nice edge up front vs. an inexperienced Wisconsin group and should be able to disrupt their run game. Seems like a lower scoring game, where +3.5 is a nice boost on what may be the better team.

Tennessee +14 vs. Florida. Florida is just really banged up. Rivalry game where UT comes in having righted the ship a bit, especially on the ground. Think two TD's is a solid value here.

ODU +29 @Virginia. This seems like a nice schedule opportunity. UVA off a big win, Notre Dame next week. ODU is a solid, feisty team. Hung around against VaTech and is getting 4+ TD's in this one. Just seems like another nice value, in the vein of UT.
 
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I'm liking Syracuse -4.5, BGSU+11, OSU -38.5 a lot in CFB this week.

I don't think Syracuse is as bad as they've looked the past 2 weeks and WMU isn't as good as they were last week vs GSU.
Bowling Green isn't good, but Kent isn't either. It took them OT to beat Kennesaw State. I have a lot of trouble seeing them beat any MAC foe by double digits.
OSU..enough said. This is one of those 42 (or higher) - 0 type games. A lot of money on this game this week.
 
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