Pitching

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Even the best/worst defensive teams end up with a BABIP within a certain range over time.

From my own personal research, .270 seems to be the low end for individual pitchers.


Team pitching stats 2010-present:
View attachment 4037

Individuals with 600+ innings 2010-Present:
View attachment 4038

Note: Jon Gray is on the high end at .321

Last year the team BABIPs ranged from .272 to .319 with the average being about .300 for the full season. I imagine that over a 10-year period the BABIP for any given team would be narrower because it would have a range or better and worse defenses that would average out over time. But in one year a team could have both excellent pitching (fewer line drives, more ground balls and fly balls) and above average range.

This year the Indians have both and are at .274, tied for 4th out of 30. That's the average for all the pitchers on the team. You'd expect the better pitchers to be lower. I can't see Plesac or anybody finishing a full season at .202, but Plesac only has four starts and is scheduled to get four more. Small sample anything can happen.

 

[Derek]

Last year the team BABIPs ranged from .272 to .319 with the average being about .300 for the full season. I imagine that over a 10-year period the BABIP for any given team would be narrower because it would have a range or better and worse defenses that would average out over time. But in one year a team could have both excellent pitching (fewer line drives, more ground balls and fly balls) and above average range.

This year the Indians have both and are at .274, tied for 4th out of 30. That's the average for all the pitchers on the team. You'd expect the better pitchers to be lower. I can't see Plesac or anybody finishing a full season at .202, but Plesac only has four starts and is scheduled to get four more. Small sample anything can happen.

You are correct. I'm just talking about his general outlook and how we should expect him to perform long-term since that's what was asked.

It takes 2000 balls in play before BABIP normalizes. At Plesac's current rate, he'll get there around the 700 inning mark of his career.

He seems like a good bet to be a guy that does a good job limiting quality contact, but when the proper sample size is 700+ innings, we can expect to see fluctuations on both sides of his true ability.

Sometimes those fluctuations will take place across an entire season! Betting on Plesac being a .275 BABIP guy long-term doesn't mean we think he'll do exactly that every single season. It means we'll see some years where the number might be around .250 and we'll see some years where it might reach .300, but we know his actual ability level is somewhere in the middle.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm not speaking for Jup by any means. His data base far exceeds anything I have or am willing to divulge into, but here's what I have gathered on Quantrill. At 6'3" and 205lbs, he's got the body for any role. He has average to slightly above average control. How that develops is what really determines how good or average he will be, but he does not have Bieber or Civale's control at this time. His pitch mix is good with a FB that sits 94-96. His CU is filthy. His slider is ahead of his CB at this time, but both have the potential to be quality pitches. My opinion which I base off of Quantrill's history, Cleveland's ability to develop SP, and Antonetti's comments is that Quantrill will be a SP again next season. If Cleveland's ability to develop SP continues with Quantrill then I think he's a solid #3 with the potential to be a good #2. Worst case scenario is that he is a quality RP.

Cantillo is only 20 yrs of age, but his ability to control the ball is ahead of his "stuff" at this time. I think that the Indians will get another 2-4 mph out of his FB which will have it sitting at 92-94 occasionally hitting 95-96. He is what the Indians covet in SP prospects and have amply displayed the ability to turn this type of SP prospect into a quality major league SP. Right now, he's similar to Scott Moss, but will likely surpass him in short order.

Has anyone heard how Jefry Rodriguez is doing? He's another guy that could change the SP landscape if he develops a good secondary pitch. Moss is ready for an opportunity, but he's currently blocked. Allen has good stuff, but needs to develop some command. Sucks that no minor league ball was played this year.

 

[xmasbuck]

last I heard, Rodriguez was throwing batting practice to DJohnson

 

[Mott the Hoople]

RIP Tom Seaver. I really can't believe this news.
I can close my eyes and still see him dealing for the Mets. One of the best.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Team as a whole has given up the fewest total runs in the majors (105). Next closest is St. Louis (107) but they've played nine (!) fewer games

 

[petes999]

Has anyone heard how Jefry Rodriguez is doing? He's another guy that could change the SP landscape if he develops a good secondary pitch. Moss is ready for an opportunity, but he's currently blocked. Allen has good stuff, but needs to develop some command. Sucks that no minor league ball was played this year.

Unfortunately, this trade basically blocks Rodriquez. This was his 3rd option year and if he couldn’t find spot in pen with 2 extra pitchers, he won’t have an easy time next spring with Clase, Quintell and Gose fighting for Hand, Perez and Leone spots. The other question, is which non-option players Indians carry when adding for Rule 5 as Plutko may have more trade value than Rod come April but Rod has more flexibility as Plutko is not really a reliever when limited to 7 guys (more extra long man this year). Rod can be a back end guy too.

 

[LL3]

Unfortunately, this trade basically blocks Rodriquez. This was his 3rd option year and if he couldn’t find spot in pen with 2 extra pitchers, he won’t have an easy time next spring with Clase, Quintell and Gose fighting for Hand, Perez and Leone spots. The other question, is which non-option players Indians carry when adding for Rule 5 as Plutko may have more trade value than Rod come April but Rod has more flexibility as Plutko is not really a reliever when limited to 7 guys (more extra long man this year). Rod can be a back end guy too.

I'll differ as to Plutko -- I believe he would be a more than adequate reliever, but it has been more advantageous to the Tribe to keep him somewhat stretched out as a starting option. It would not be shocking to see him in our pen next year, but we do have plenty of options it would seem.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm not speaking for Jup by any means. His data base far exceeds anything I have or am willing to divulge into, but here's what I have gathered on Quantrill. At 6'3" and 205lbs, he's got the body for any role. He has average to slightly above average control. How that develops is what really determines how good or average he will be, but he does not have Bieber or Civale's control at this time. His pitch mix is good with a FB that sits 94-96. His CU is filthy. His slider is ahead of his CB at this time, but both have the potential to be quality pitches. My opinion which I base off of Quantrill's history, Cleveland's ability to develop SP, and Antonetti's comments is that Quantrill will be a SP again next season. If Cleveland's ability to develop SP continues with Quantrill then I think he's a solid #3 with the potential to be a good #2. Worst case scenario is that he is a quality RP.

Cantillo is only 20 yrs of age, but his ability to control the ball is ahead of his "stuff" at this time. I think that the Indians will get another 2-4 mph out of his FB which will have it sitting at 92-94 occasionally hitting 95-96. He is what the Indians covet in SP prospects and have amply displayed the ability to turn this type of SP prospect into a quality major league SP. Right now, he's similar to Scott Moss, but will likely surpass him in short order.

Has anyone heard how Jefry Rodriguez is doing? He's another guy that could change the SP landscape if he develops a good secondary pitch. Moss is ready for an opportunity, but he's currently blocked. Allen has good stuff, but needs to develop some command. Sucks that no minor league ball was played this year.

Cantillo seems like a guy they would draft. Marginal fastball but good control and can spin it. He fits the profile of the type of pitcher they like to get their hands on. Antonetti said the pitching coaches are excited about working with him.

 

[Gson]

RIP Tom Seaver. I really can't believe this news.
I can close my eyes and still see him dealing for the Mets. One of the best.

Tom Terrific * RIP*.. The genius of Tom Seaver was his dogged competitiveness wrapped up in his athleticism.. He was a more athletic pitcher than the typical "tall and fall" guys we see today.. On the current Indian's staff and in the minors.. both Zack Plesac and Lenny Torres offer the same kind of delivery: Drop and Drive.. If either produce at half of what Seaver did.. HUGE win..

Thoughts?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm trying to figure out if we have anything in Dominic Leone. On the surface the guy has been awful. In 7.2 innings he's allowed 12 hits and 3 walks - just under two baserunners per inning. He also has allowed two home runs and his ERA is 7.04. Why is he still around while Cam Hill, who has much better numbers, got sent down?

The only thing I can see is Leone has struck out 13 batters in those 7.2 innings. That's a crazy K/9 rate of 15.3. Obviously this guy can miss bats big time. I've seen him throw 96 mph. Maybe the Indians feel they can smooth out his rough spots and end up with a pretty good reliever. He was a pretty good reliever for Toronto in 2017 (2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 65 appearances) but has fallen on hard times the last couple of years. His career K/9 rate is 9.6 so he's well above that. He's only 28.

In 2018 he was on the 60-day IL with nerve damage in his pitching arm. Maybe he's still working his way back from that.

 

[LL3]

I'm trying to figure out if we have anything in Dominic Leone. On the surface the guy has been awful. In 7.2 innings he's allowed 12 hits and 3 walks - just under two baserunners per inning. He also has allowed two home runs and his ERA is 7.04. Why is he still around while Cam Hill, who has much better numbers, got sent down?

The only thing I can see is Leone has struck out 13 batters in those 7.2 innings. That's a crazy K/9 rate of 15.3. Obviously this guy can miss bats big time. I've seen him throw 96 mph. Maybe the Indians feel they can smooth out his rough spots and end up with a pretty good reliever. He was a pretty good reliever for Toronto in 2017 (2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 65 appearances) but has fallen on hard times the last couple of years. His career K/9 rate is 9.6 so he's well above that. He's only 28.

In 2018 he was on the 60-day IL with nerve damage in his pitching arm. Maybe he's still working his way back from that.

I was surprised that Hill was sent down, while Leone remained. My best guess is that they like Leone (no options) enough that they did not want to lose him for the future. Hill had better results, but had options left -- he was sent down to retain the asset (Leone). Adding Quantrill, a guy they would seem to prefer to both Hill and Leone, they maintained a strong pen.

 

[Derek]

I was surprised that Hill was sent down, while Leone remained. My best guess is that they like Leone (no options) enough that they did not want to lose him for the future. Hill had better results, but had options left -- he was sent down to retain the asset (Leone). Adding Quantrill, a guy they would seem to prefer to both Hill and Leone, they maintained a strong pen.

I suspect Leone having no options remaining was their primary reason for the move.

With the addition of Quantrill, Hill moved down a spot in the pecking order anyway. Leone won't see any added role and we don't risk losing him.

I think we'd all prefer Cam Hill on the mound in a tight situation, but neither is likely to be used in that role this year, so it makes sense to retain Leone's rights.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Leone is trying to salvage his career but considering how few innings are available to our bullpen and with Hand, Karinchak, Wittgren, Cimber, Maton, Perez and Quantrill all ahead of him in the pecking order he won't get much of an opportunity. He's only pitched 7 innings in 37 games so far.

Leone needs to be on a team like the Red Sox where the starters are getting the shit kicked out of them and there are tons of low leverage innings for the bullpen.

 

[petes999]

I was wondering why Hill over Leone and Chang over Leon. We know now why Leon. I assume Leone is due to worry about injury/Covid. If they have something drastic in next 12 days, you want all options available. On Sept 15, the focus is on playoffs. You need your 26 guys on the roster. If Hill/Leone are 14th pitcher, you leave Hill off as you can only carry 13 pitchers in playoffs. And; he can be recalled for injuries. Once Leone is cut, he is gone: