The story behind Shane Bieber’s sterling 2020 season
Zack Meisel Sep 8, 2020 8
CLEVELAND — It required a covert operation for Carl Willis to watch Shane Bieber pitch for the first time.
OK, so Willis didn’t need to wear a camouflage uniform and use binoculars while hiding in the tall weeds to catch a glimpse of the tall righty in action. But he and Terry Francona pleaded with the front office in the spring of 2018 to allow Bieber to visit big-league camp. There was a split-squad day, and the coaches wanted to hand Bieber the ball for one of the starts. They were denied.
So, Willis snuck over to minor-league camp and watched Bieber throw live batting practice. Willis marveled at Bieber’s work ethic and attention to detail.
“If they hit a groundball toward first base,” Willis said, “he sprinted to first base like his hair was on fire.”
A few months later, Bieber made his major-league debut. He settled into the Indians’ rotation in late June. A year later, he hoisted the All-Star Game MVP Award over his head in front of an approving crowd at Progressive Field.
And a year after that, he has teammates, fans and analysts referring to him as the top pitcher in the sport. Four pitchers have captured the Cy Young Award with Willis as their pitching coach: CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and Rick Porcello. Bieber is charging toward becoming the fifth, a mere two and a half years since introducing himself to Willis on a back field in Goodyear, Ariz.
Just how good is this guy?
Here’s one way to frame it: Bieber has displayed a bit of frustration after each of his last three starts. In those three starts, he owns a 1.59 ERA, with 29 strikeouts in 17 innings. He has limited the opposition to a .441 OPS. Now, his walk rate has risen, and he hasn’t pitched as deep into those games as he would have preferred. But Bieber has reached the point at which seemingly anything short of perfection fails to meet his standards.
Overall, opposing hitters have compiled a .172/.228/.245 slash line against Bieber this season. In the year of the universal DH, Bieber has essentially turned every hitter into a hapless pitcher at the plate.
An example of his brilliance
On Sunday afternoon, Bieber struck out Keston Hiura with the bases loaded and one out in the fifth inning. Hiura chased a slider for strike three, Bieber’s 100th pitch. Christian Yelich, a top-two National League MVP finisher the last two years, came to the plate with two outs. It was bound to be Bieber’s last batter and his most challenging encounter.
Yelich had struck out and walked in his first two trips to the plate. In those two battles, Bieber tossed Yelich six curveballs. He swung through the first three. Bieber knew he could get Yelich to offer, even if the breaking balls bounced in the dirt.
Pitch one: 93.8 mph fastball, called strike
Pitch two: 84.1 mph curveball, swinging strike
Pitch three: 83.6 mph curveball, swinging strike
“You know what they say? Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice … strike three.” — Michael Scott
Bieber made a perennial MVP candidate look like an overmatched rookie.
What makes him so effective?
Aside from his masterful command? It’s sort of a clichéd answer, but he can throw any of his five pitches at any time. He induced 20 swings and misses on Sunday, at least one on each of his five pitches. He implemented a cutter this season to complete his repertoire.
“If you go back and look when I first came up, 2018, half a season, and then 2019,” Bieber said, “there are obvious trends, like my fastball usage going down year after year, whether it’s a lot or a little from 2018 to ’19 or ’19 to ’20. That’s not only conscious effort, but it’s also being able to throw other pitches for strikes, and that gives you a lot more options and a lot more pitchability to be able to throw hitters off. So that’s been a big thing for me.”
Bieber's pitch usage
| 2018 USAGE
| 2019 USAGE
| 2020 USAGE
|
---|
Fastball | 57.4 percent | 45.7 percent | 36.5 percent |
Slider | 22.7 percent | 26.5 percent | 13.9 percent |
Curveball | 16.0 percent | 20.5 percent | 25.0 percent |
Changeup | 3.8 percent | 7.3 percent | 6.5 percent |
Cutter | 0.0 percent | 0.0 percent | 18.2 percent |
“There’s never a count that a hitter can sit on a fastball,” Willis said. “But at the same time, he doesn’t know what to sit on, because they can get an 89-mph cutter or an 82-mph curveball or the change-up or the slider, all of which are different speeds, different shapes. I use the word ‘unpredictable,’ but I think that in itself impresses me the most.”
What’s the most impressive Bieber statistic?
Bieber even admits that when he ascended through the Indians’ farm system, he had fashioned a reputation for being a pitch-to-contact type of hurler, rather than a strikeout artist.
Well, this season, Bieber has struck out 42.9 percent of the hitters he has faced. If you’re brave enough to step into the batter’s box against him, just know that there’s a decent chance you’ll be sauntering back to your dugout with your head down.
Strikeout rate (MLB starting pitchers)
To place this in proper perspective, consider this: In the history of major-league baseball, among pitchers who have logged at least 50 innings in a season, Bieber’s strikeout rate ranks 14th all time. The only pitchers ranked ahead of him: Aroldis Chapman (four times), Craig Kimbrel (twice), Josh Hader (twice), Eric Gagne, Andrew Miller, Edwin Díaz, Kenley Jansen and Billy Wagner.
So, the only pitchers to
ever post a better strikeout rate than 2020 Bieber? Elite relievers, who spent far less time on the mound, simply needing to record a quick three outs so everyone could head home.
Another starting pitcher doesn’t appear on the list until 2019 Gerrit Cole, at No. 36, with a strikeout rate of 39.9 percent.
Could he actually win the AL MVP Award?
It might boil down to voter preferences. Mike Trout is making a case (surprise, surprise) for his fourth piece of hardware. Might some voters scoff at Trout’s candidacy because the Angels, yet again, seem destined to vacation in October despite an expanded postseason field? Only one AL hitter ranks ahead of Trout in WAR, per FanGraphs: his teammate, Anthony Rendon.
Only one AL player ranks ahead of them both: Bieber, and by a significant margin.
To some, placing a pitcher in the top spot — or any spot — on an MVP ballot is blasphemous.
This is a strange year, though. It’s difficult for hitters to differentiate themselves on the leaderboards because of the shortened schedule. Trout might appear most worthy, based on his stat line (.295/.395/.676), but it’s not the no-brainer it has been in the past, and it’s not a simple task to separate him from Rendon or Tim Anderson or Nelson Cruz or José Abreu or Teoscar Hernández.
Bieber, meanwhile, has performed leaps and bounds better than any other AL pitcher. And though he’ll wind up appearing in only 13 or so games this season, he has made it nearly impossible for an offense as woeful as Cleveland’s to lose any of those contests.
Bieber allowed one run in five innings against the Brewers on Sunday and his ERA actually
ballooned to 1.25. He has registered 10 or more strikeouts in six of his nine starts. His 94 strikeouts are 19 more than any other pitcher has registered.
One more strikeout stat: He has tallied at least eight in each of his nine starts this season. That’s tied with Bob Feller (1946) and Pedro Martinez (1999) for the second-longest streak to begin a season in major-league history, behind only Randy Johnson (2000).
Maybe it won’t be enough to convince voters he deserves MVP consideration. But at this point, Bieber couldn’t be better positioned to claim his first Cy Young Award.