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PLAYOFF GAME #2

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The fact that he says he would have gone for it if it was “more manageable” means he knows he should have gone for it period.
Huh? That doesn’t make sense to me. I don’t know why you wouldn’t take Stefanski at face value here.

What you are effectively saying is that the number of yards doesn’t matter. That even if it was 4th and 25, you should still go for it.

He’s saying that there’s a threshold where going for it is worth it. Maybe that’s 4th and 5, 4th and 7, or even 4th and 8. But 4th and 9 was beyond that threshold.

As long as the team has sound, rational reasons for making their decisions I can’t fault them on it.
 
Huh? That doesn’t make sense to me. I don’t know why you wouldn’t take Stefanski at face value here.

What you are effectively saying is that the number of yards doesn’t matter. That even if it was 4th and 25, you should still go for it.

He’s saying that there’s a threshold where going for it is worth it. Maybe that’s 4th and 5, 4th and 7, or even 4th and 8. But 4th and 9 was beyond that threshold.

As long as the team has sound, rational reasons for making their decisions I can’t fault them on it.

I think it’s a mistake to take this particular remark at face value, yes.

By admitting he was wrong publicly, Stefanski would be forced to throw his defensive players and coaches under the bus which is something he’s just never going to do.
 
speaking of results-dependent analysis. I’ve got an issue with the national guys slobbering all over Andy Reid for that pass play on 4th and 1 from mid field. Yeah it worked. It looks great. If the pass is incomplete they would be KILLING him for that decision at midfield if the browns go down and score. It worked he looks like a genius. If it fails he looks like a total moron. I toohate result-dependent analysis.
I disagree.

The play design was brilliant. Making everyone think you're just trying to draw the defense offsides, get the defense flat on their feet, then snap the ball and hit a wide open tyreek? That's impressive as fuck.
 
I disagree.

The play design was brilliant. Making everyone think you're just trying to draw the defense offsides, get the defense flat on their feet, then snap the ball and hit a wide open tyreek? That's impressive as fuck.
It was a gutsy call
 
I'm going to preface this next part by saying that this cuts both ways, so there have been plenty of things I've argued analytics wise in favor of or against in the past that would have gone the opposite direction based on individual game specifics.

But one problem with citing/relying on these instant analytics tools to make and later justify/criticize decisions is that the decisions are not factoring in YOUR specific team's ability and YOUR specific opponent's ability.

"Generic team A when simulating this scenario 1 million times gets the ball back from generic team B XX% of the time and only converts 4th and 9 XX% (a slightly lower percentage) of the time ignores the fact that the Browns defense had already given up 2 first downs on every single defensive possession of the game (including both previous Henne possessions) minus the one drive where the Chiefs literally started with the ball closer than 20 yards from the endzone.

I'm extremely pro analytics, but this was at the very best a toss up decision. ESPN had the conversion chance at 29.5%, 4th down decision bot had it at 33%


If the analytics are that close, I would like to see the coaching staff put trust in the offense over the defense because there simply zero indication or evidence that the Browns defense was capable of stopping the Chiefs from converting two first downs on one possession.
 
I'm going to preface this next part by saying that this cuts both ways, so there have been plenty of things I've argued analytics wise in favor of or against in the past that would have gone the opposite direction based on individual game specifics.

But one problem with citing/relying on these instant analytics tools to make and later justify/criticize decisions is that the decisions are not factoring in YOUR specific team's ability and YOUR specific opponent's ability.

"Generic team A when simulating this scenario 1 million times gets the ball back from generic team B XX% of the time and only converts 4th and 9 XX% (a slightly lower percentage) of the time ignores the fact that the Browns defense had already given up 2 first downs on every single defensive possession of the game (including both previous Henne possessions) minus the one drive where the Chiefs literally started with the ball closer than 20 yards from the endzone.

I'm extremely pro analytics, but this was at the very best a toss up decision. ESPN had the conversion chance at 29.5%, 4th down decision bot had it at 33%


If the analytics are that close, I would like to see the coaching staff put trust in the offense over the defense because there simply zero indication or evidence that the Browns defense was capable of stopping the Chiefs from converting two first downs on one possession.
I am so done with this conversation. At best it's a toss up. But once again if browns defense doesn't blow a 3rd and 14, the offense gets a chance with a minute left to win it
 
Even so. It's close.

So then....throw your last challenge flag if you're gonna use the TO anyway. Which he did. he called TO right after that play. Sooooo.....it made no sense not to throw the flag.

To back to this: It's still would have left the Chiefs with a very short 4th down.

And while it would have been nice for the Browns to get a chance to stop them there I Mean................this is literally the worst 4th down defense in the history of the NFL, I do believe. So I have absolutely no faith they'd have stopped them.
 
The other thing people I very much disagree with is this whole “Henne stinks! Gotta take your chances putting the ball in his hands!” thing.

The Chiefs had already converted four first downs with Henne in the game. There was an overreaction to the interception which really masked that the Chiefs were still pretty easily moving the ball with Henne in the game.

How many times did you say “Holy shit, Mahommes!” today? I had zero, personally. He didn’t do anything spectacular and actually looked somewhat pedestrian after he hurt his toe and made a couple of errant throws. He was taking what our porous defense was giving him and moving the chains. The D was basically content to give up 8 or 10 yards throws all day and KC took the gifts. I don’t remember a single wow throw from Mahommes.

Bringing Henne in shouldn’t have changed the thought process to an expectation that we were suddenly going to get quick stops. We weren’t shutting the run down. We weren’t containing Kelce and Hill. I didn’t have any expectation of getting the ball back when we punted. Even at 3rd and 14, I was at best 50/50 that the defense could get off the field.
 
Can we talk about the fact Baker had just as huge of a running lane as Chad Henne on third and 11, but he instead rushed a high pass to Hunt that he juggled and only gained two yards on?

If Stefanski saw a smarter play on third down, we might be talking about more faith in the offense on 4th and 9.

But this is just an exercise in futility now. Stefanski had to make a tough call, and it is being overblown compared to the clear errors in execution that lead to that moment.
 
I am so done with this conversation. At best it's a toss up. But once again if browns defense doesn't blow a 3rd and 14, the offense gets a chance with a minute left to win it

There's nothing more hilarious than someone going out of their way to respond to a discussion they aren't in only to suggest how "done" they are with the conversation, is there?

No one forced you to respond my friend.
 
Rewatching the last drive here...

1st and 10 from 20 - Designed swing pass to Chubb gains 4. Not a terrible 1st down play. Chubb slipped and fell backwards as he was trying to make the second defender miss.

2nd and 6 from the 24 - Play clock down to 8. Shotgun run right with Bitonio pulling. Need to see it on the all-22 to be certain, but it looks like Chubb missed a big hole up the middle on a cutback instead opting to take it wide. Teller appears to have been responsible for the LB on the 2nd level who made the tackle, but never got to him. No gain.

3rd and 6 from the 24 - Play clock down to 15. Baker hits Higgins on the “Edelman” route. I'm sure there's an actual name for this, but it's a fake shallow cross invert cut into an out. Higgins makes the first guy miss, but is tackled inches short of the marker.

4th and inches from the 29 - Play clock down to 5. Baker sneaks for 2.

Ok so at this point they've gained 11 yards in 2:20 which isn't ideal, but they have a fresh set of downs.

Here's where it gets weird. The Browns break the huddle with 14 seconds left and are fully lined up with 10 on the play clock, which is plenty of time for Baker to check into another look if he doesn't like it. But oddly Baker essentially just gives up on the play entirely to call timeout with like 8 on the clock.

I have no idea what the issue was, but rewatching it, it seemed like Baker had more than enough time to call an audible and he just opted to go with the timeout immediately.

1st and 10 from the 31 - Shotgun run right. The Chiefs blitz, but this appears to be blocked really well by everyone except Bitonio. He tried to cut Chris Jones and Jones immediately just dumped him on his face. Even with that great play by Jones, Chubb still ran by him and it took a tremendous effort for Jones to grab Chubb by the back of the jersey from behind to slow him down enough for teammates to clean up the tackle. This was definitely going to be a 4-5 yard gain that turned into a -1 yard gain on a great play by an all-pro.

2nd and 11 from the 30 - Chiefs blitz again and the Browns have a screen to Chubb dialed up to the left. Unfortunately, the Chiefs defend this perfectly. Hance peels off DE Clark to pick up the outside blizter S Sorenson. Clark, rather than continuing to pursue Baker, just stops and steps backwards right into Chubb's path. If Clark doesn't do that, it's gonna be a big gain as Chubb had all the blockers in front. Baker had no choice but to spike it at Chubb's feet. Just another really heady and aware play by a pro bowler.

3rd and 11 from the 30 - Chiefs have 7 guys (9 including both corners) on the LOS at the snap. They drop all of them and only rush 4. Baker feels Hance getting beat on the outside by Clark and tries to step up in the pocket, but Teller is getting beat worse right up the middle by Jones. Baker is whacked right by Jones right he dumps it off to Hunt. There was basically no chance of Baker escaping this pocket on 2nd glance. What I do want to see on the all-22 is if Baker missed Hooper in the left seam or not. It looks like may have, but there may be a safety rotating over that we can't see.

Screen Shot 2021-01-17 at 11.38.43 PM.png

Hard to be overly pissed about these plays though. If Jones doesn't get his hand on the back of Chubb's jersey on 1st down, it's 2nd and 5 instead of 2nd and 11 and everything changes. It took tremendously good plays by two really good players on three consecutive plays and unfortunately the Chiefs just got them.
 
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Rewatching the last drive here...

1st and 10 from 20 - Designed swing pass to Chubb gains 4. Not a terrible 1st down play. Chubb slipped and fell backwards as he was trying to make the second defender miss.

2nd and 6 from the 24 - Play clock down to 8. Shotgun run right with Bitonio pulling. Need to see it on the all-22 to be certain, but it looks like Chubb missed a big hole up the middle on a cutback instead opting to take it wide. Teller appears to have been responsible for the LB on the 2nd level, but never got to him. No gain.

3rd and 6 from the 24 - Play clock down to 15. Baker hits Higgins on the Edelman route (I'm sure there's a name for this, but it's a fake shallow cross invert cut into an out. Higgins makes the first guy miss, but it tackled inches short of the marker.

4th and inches from the 29 - Play clock down to 5. Baker sneaks for 2.

Ok so at this point they've gained 11 yards in 2:20 which isn't ideal, but they have a fresh set of downs.

Here's where it gets weird. The Browns break the huddle with 14 seconds left and are fully lined up with 10 on the play clock, which is plenty of time for Baker to check into another look if he doesn't like it. But oddly Baker doesn't like the look essentially just gives up on the play entirely to call timeout with like 8 on the clock.

I have no idea what the issue was, but rewatching it, it seemed like Baker had more than enough time to call an audible and just opted to go with the timeout immediately.

1st and 10 from the 31 - Shotgun run right. The Chiefs blitz, but this appears to be blocked really well by everyone except Bitonio. He tried to cut Chris Jones and Jones immediately just dumped him on his face. Even with that great play by Jones, Chubb still ran by him and it took a tremendous effort for Jones to grab Chubb by the jersey to slow him down. This was definitely going to be a 4-5 yard gain that turned into a -1 yard gain on a great play by an all-pro.

2nd and 11 from the 30 - Chiefs blitz again and the Browns have a screen to Chubb dialed up to the left. Unfortunately, the Chiefs defend this perfectly. Hance peels off DE Clark to pick up S Sorenson and Clark, rather than continuing to pursue Baker, drops backwards right into Chubb's path. If Clark doesn't do that, it's gonna be a big gain as Chubb had all the blockers in front. Baker had no choice but to spike it at Chubb's feet. Just another really good play by a pro bowler.

3rd and 11 from the 30 - Chiefs have 7 guys (9 including both corners) on the LOS at the snap. They drop all of them and only rush 4. Baker feels Hance getting beat on the outside and tries to step up in the pocket, but Teller is getting beat worse right up the middle. Baker is whacked right by Jones right he dumps it off to Hunt. There was basically no chance of Baker escaping this pocket on 2nd glance. What I do want to see on the all-22 is if Baker missed Hooper in the left seam or not. It looks like may have, but there may be a safety rotating over that we can't see.

View attachment 4895

Hard to be overly pissed about these plays though. If Clark doesn't get his hand on the back of Chubb's jersey on 1st down, it's 2nd and 5 instead of 2nd and 11 and everything changes. It took tremendously good plays by two really good players on three consecutive plays and unfortunately the Chiefs got them.

Good analysis. This was bitterly disappointing but you made it clear, the better team won.
 
I disagree.

The play design was brilliant. Making everyone think you're just trying to draw the defense offsides, get the defense flat on their feet, then snap the ball and hit a wide open tyreek? That's impressive as fuck.
I’m not disagreeing with that. It was impressive and it was gutsy but if it doesn’t work because Henne throws a bad pass, or Hill falls down on the route, or any number of reasons, Reid is getting killed this morning. But because it worked he looks like a genius. Results based analysis.
 
I’m not disagreeing with that. It was impressive and it was gutsy but if it doesn’t work because Henne throws a bad pass, or Hill falls down on the route, or any number of reasons, Reid is getting killed this morning. But because it worked he looks like a genius. Results based analysis.

Reid played to win. Stefanski made a cardinal sin. I know it was 4th and 9 but you have to try there.
 

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