Poll for Decision on Rosario...

[Gson]

Done cherry picking?

Go to FanGraphs. List all SS with at least 100 PA, that's 50. Rank them for DEF score, which incorporates ALL defense. Rosario ranks 44th (-1.8). That's bad.

...hmmm... won't get into the who's the better SS... it's safe to say that Amed offers intangibles that can't or won't be provided in statistical evaluations.. the least of which is a fondness by Jose Ramirez to have Amed standing on the infield dirt to his left...

Also, imho, the elimination of the shift.. will have a deleterious affect on Amed's defense.. I'm pretty sure we can all agree that will be the case.. Improving the defense will always be a part of the Guardians approach to play..

But.. back to the poll.. which clearly decided in a vote of 2 of every 3 votes cast, to move on from Amed.. There were at least four teams identified as potential landing spots including

-the Cardinals (Juan Yepez): Have had fits trying to fill the SS spot.. The Cardinals are currently filling the spot with a 2B / Ut and have a pile of glove only 17 to 20 year old candidates to fill the spot. All these SS candidates are proving to be alergic to Ash or Maple... It's an absolute certainty that the Cardinals are going to do something at SS. Yepez is blocked and is being groomed as a back up to their AAA RF'er.. that is.. he's doomed if he stays in the St Louis system. A one for one deal completed two days after the WS (and before parade down Euclid) would help both clubs..

the Phillies (Alec Bohm) Are losing Sean Segura & have Bryson Stott, who's best position is 2B, playing at SS.. The Phillies defense can best be described as confused.. but, they make it work for them most of the time.. An infusion of a veteran SS (and an eventual replacement) will help create a more stable future. The Phillies have almost NO ONE in their minor league system that can be considered even a marginal SS prospect. The closest is Casey Martin who has proven in the lower minors that he can't hit.. Negotiations with the Phillies would be as a two or three for one type deal with Alex Bohm returning to the Guardians.. The Phillies would be able to sell the deal to their fans that Amed would immediately return the offensive output of Bohm while shoring up the true weakness of their Phillies farm system and, perhaps, their current ML roster..

-the Angels (Taylor Ward): @SS, have a collection of 2B's, oft injured players and glove only place holders.. Their farm system has virtually no one that is close (AA in 2022) to being ready to step into the spot. For the Guardians, Ward would need to return back to the dirt where he was primarily a 3B. His versatility and being a RHH would be advantageous..

-the DBax (Christian Walker).. Clear and obvious.. Walker is the epitome of the kind of 1B the Guardians want.. The DBax have needs everywhere, especially with pitching. Perhaps, the best reason for the DBax to acquire a one year rental of a productive SS (Amed) would be their current situation with one of the "gems" of their farm system, Jordan Lawler.. who should be banging on the door to becoming a major leaguer right around the start of the 2024 season.. In short.. the timing fits.. the talent on both sides fit.. It's Monte Hall's "Let's make a deal" time..

There are more.. but these are four.. Thoughts?

 

[Gson]

A deal that was discussed/proposed with the phillies included Logan O'Hoppe.. At the trading deadline.. O'Hoppe was sent to the Angels for Brandon Marsh.. a CF'er.. (.245/.290/.665) Just today, O'Hoppe was promoted to the Angels to finish out the ML season..

With the Phillies having JT Realmuto, O'Hoppe was a perfect candidate for trade. O'Hoppe has had a pretty good season.. and was a great trade candidate as witness by his trade to the Angels..

Angels Promote Top Catching Prospect Logan O'Hoppe

The Angels promoted top catching prospect Logan O'Hoppe. Outfielder Magneuris Sierra was designated for assignment. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[CATS44]

Poor defense, average bat, veteran on the last year of his deal who is blocking multiple top-100 prospects.

I think we all see the writing on the wall.

It's the same writing that was on the wall for Kluber.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Bauer.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Lindor.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Clevinger.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Cliff Lee.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for CC Sabathia.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Vinnie Pestano.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Asdrubal Cabrera.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Justin Masterson.
It's the same writing that was on the wall for Shin-soo Choo

This team isn't just going to let a trade asset burn up for the privilege of blocking talented young guys who are ready. The absolute best case for Amed staying on the team is a lack of trade interest in the offseason leading to him playing SS or an OF spot until the youth surpasses him.

Amed's a fun player. I love his speed. It's fun when he's hot. It's incredibly frustrating when he's cold and swinging at balls in the opposite batter's box. Thanks for making 2022 special and best of luck in your future endeavors.

Not one of those comparisons comes remotely close to the present situation with Amed.

Kluber was gonna cost us $18 mil coming off of injury.

Bauer was gonna cost near as much and he was personna non grata with every decision maker in the org...plus we had three MLB ready SPs ready to go.

Lindor was gonna cost us 22 mil coming out of the Covid year...and we were able to get both his present and future replacement in return.

Clevinger was also becoming personna no grata, and we could get half a MLB team in return.

Choo was traded with a year to go in a convoluted deal in which we acquired a SP who was the third overall pick in the draft, a pitcher drafted in the second round and a viable reliever. We were also coming off a 94 loss season.

None of those fit the situation we have now. It would cost about $7.5 mil to keep Amed. While we have three kids close to being ready, none have put up the kind of seasons that should make anybody think they would step in as a starter and make immediate impact.

We've had three prospective MIFs in the last three decades (probably a lot longer) come up and make an immediate impact in Cleveland. Lindor, Kipnis, and Droobs. Not one of them began the season in the bigs, and they all came up after lighting up the minors that year.

Thats the precedent to look at. There are others. When we needed short term stop gaps, this FO have acquired the likes of Juan Uribe, Mike Napoli, David Murphy, Jason Giambi, Austin Jackson, and Yonder Alonso. Some cost money, some didn't...but all moved on when a kid or somebody else was ready.

The last thing to consider is that we can't get back in value equal to what Amed gives us. We can't acquire his presence on this team.

********

As for defensive metrics, I've never cared much for them. I only cite them because everybody else does. The numbers never agree. If you cite DRS, somebody argues UZR. So if you cite UZR, somebody else will cite DRS. So, to cover my backside, I cite both...and, of course, they then don't count.

So, the eye test...

Amed plays more upright than most shortstops...more mechanical than instinctive. In spite of footspeed and a bit of quickness, he doesn't range well. He is stiff turning the double play. He is fundamentally sound, which means he catches what he gets to. His arm is a cannon, and it shows on relays from the outfield. But he isnt always able to make the body and foot adjustments needed to make accurate throws to first. It sounds strange, but I think he would have trouble making a switch to second base.

He has improved immensely from last season, but like Bimbo, I wonder how much positioning in the shift has helped him. Of course, I wonder how good the youngsters really are defensively. Amed was obviously a plus defender, too...and a better one than anybody, except Ricchio...

Until he wasnt.

*******

Antonetti and Tito are the roster decision makers. Jose Ramirez is the undisputed leader of this team...and just gave this org maybe the biggest veteran home town discount in the history of baseball. They have all very publicly gushed over Amed. He has done everything that has been asked of him willingly and with enthusiasm. He is the poster boy for everything this org preaches to the kids. The youngsters look up to him.

It would be a huge reversal of all the preaching to unceremoniously dump him over $7.5 mil, esp when the org is trying to improve this team for next year.

Now, if Antonetti/Chernoff can trade him and Miller for the next Bauer-Shaw-Albers...the equivalent of the Choo deal...they can't pass it up.

But it ain't happening.

 

[Derek]

Rosario isn’t getting extended and the chances of the team letting him start next season with the team, while being on the final year of his deal, are slim.

He’s been a fine stop gap, but he’s not long for Cleveland.

Average bat, below average glove. Why would the team ever want to lock themselves into that?

 

[CATS44]

Don't have to extend him. Let him play it out until one of the kids shows that he is ready. If that happens by mid season, trade Amed at the deadline.

Rocchios wRC+ in 152 PAs in Columbus was 88. Overall at two levels his OPS last season was .755.

Arias wRC+ in his second year in Columbus was 89. Overall at three levels his OPS is .708.

Freeman wRC+ in Columbus was 104. Overall at two levels his OPS is 707.

All have an excuse...injury, concussion, coming off injury, whatever.

But none of them scream ready to be a starter in Cleveland in April.

If you want to point out how this org does things...which many seem to do...ask yourself this.

How many rookies has Tito willingly put into the starting lineup from opening day in his ten years here? The answer is one, Steven Kwan. Not even the great Francisco Lindor, who was far ahead of the three we have.

Naquin got a chance as a platoon bat, but only because Brantley...and Chisenhall...were hurt.

 

[sportscoach]

Don't have to extend him. Let him play it out until one of the kids shows that he is ready. If that happens by mid season, trade Amed at the deadline.

Rocchios wRC+ in 152 PAs in Columbus was 88. Overall at two levels his OPS last season was .755.

Arias wRC+ in his second year in Columbus was 89. Overall at three levels his OPS is .708.

Freeman wRC+ in Columbus was 104. Overall at two levels his OPS is 707.

All have an excuse...injury, concussion, coming off injury, whatever.

But none of them scream ready to be a starter in Cleveland in April.

If you want to point out how this org does things...which many seem to do...ask yourself this.

How many rookies has Tito willingly put into the starting lineup from opening day in his ten years here? The answer is one, Steven Kwan. Not even the great Francisco Lindor, who was far ahead of the three we have.

Naquin got a chance as a platoon bat, but only because Brantley...and Chisenhall...were hurt.

First off, the organization gave Francona no choice, but to play a lot of rookies and they aren't going to change who he has to choose from next season...

Secondly, Amed's numbers arent actually that great, offensively or defensively. We can easily upgrade the defensive side. That is a fact not a guess. His numbers offensively are all based off of his heavy hit totals.

I believe one of the rookies can reproduce his bat and dWAR...

 

[Gson]

Don't have to extend him. Let him play it out until one of the kids shows that he is ready. If that happens by mid season, trade Amed at the deadline.

Rocchios wRC+ in 152 PAs in Columbus was 88. Overall at two levels his OPS last season was .755.

Arias wRC+ in his second year in Columbus was 89. Overall at three levels his OPS is .708.

Freeman wRC+ in Columbus was 104. Overall at two levels his OPS is 707.

All have an excuse...injury, concussion, coming off injury, whatever.

But none of them scream ready to be a starter in Cleveland in April.

If you want to point out how this org does things...which many seem to do...ask yourself this.

How many rookies has Tito willingly put into the starting lineup from opening day in his ten years here? The answer is one, Steven Kwan. Not even the great Francisco Lindor, who was far ahead of the three we have.

Naquin got a chance as a platoon bat, but only because Brantley...and Chisenhall...were hurt.

Arb III could result in a non-tender at worst..

Realistically.. Amed will be back on the last of his team control years.. The amount is immaterial as he's still the best guy for the Guardians at this time.. In the future..that will change.. but.. not to start the 2023 season.. imho..

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I wasn't going to respond to this slop that was antagonistic (and wrong, as is becoming a trend) from the first line, but are we actually so lost in this section that we look at the organization manipulating service time and say "Looks like Tito never lets a rookie start opening day!"?

 

[sportscoach]

I wasn't going to respond to this slop that was antagonistic (and wrong, as is becoming a trend) from the first line, but are we actually so lost in this section that we look at the organization manipulating service time and say "Looks like Tito never lets a rookie start opening day!"?

Tito prefers not to start rookies opening day in a sense... he likes to gradually get them into games... he is just careful/conservative with them in my mind.

 

[CATS44]

It has little to do with manipulating service time.

Every freaking year Tito explains his reasoning. He wants kids to have the best chance of not getting their brains beat in when they first get inserted as a regular...and he avoids doing it when the weather is 40 degrees with sleet blowing in from right field.

To EXPECT a newbie to come in and immediately replace what Amed gives us is inane.

Now, everybody keeps insisting that I am down in Arias. Taint so. I merely think more highly of Rocchio as a regular MIF...just as I insisted for over a year that Gimenez was superior to Arias...and took a beating for it. How's that look now?

In last night's game thread I highlighted two things I LIKE about Arias. He has the kind of outright power that no other MIF in our org has shown. That homer landed half way up the bleachers. We may only see a dozen hit farther there in an entire season.

And with two strikes in the previous game, he seriously changed his approach at the plate, completely eliminating his stride, which is something I've never seen him do in any tape I've seen of him...even in batting practice when his coach says 'two strikes'.

The question...the big question...has always been if Arias can make enough contact to ever be viable as an everyday player. IF he can do that by cutting down his huge stride when down in the count, the answer is yes.

We shall see.

He also laid down a textbook bunt. Maybe that's a fluke. Maybe not. But it can be a valuable asset in this kind of offense.

A lot of conversation on this board about 2024 as the year to REALLY contend. There were very few that said otherwise, and even fewer that said the time was now. A minute group thought this was more than a .500 team.

But NOW has arrived. In some way that changes things.

Ask yourself this.

Would the team be better off by replacing Miller with Arias and maybe having him also act as a RH bat in the outfield (the biggest need this team has at the moment), or by Arias replacing Amed?

IMO its not Arias or Amed, its Arias or Miller.

 

[CATS44]

One more thing...

Eventually Amed will be replaced in the middle of the infield.

Gimenez is now etched in stone...which at the moment leaves Arias and Rocchio. If both of them are the real deal, which of the three doesn't play MIF?

Obviously not Gimenez.

Arias is 6-1, 215. Rocchio is 5-10, 170...maybe. Which one is moving to first base or corner OF?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

One more thing...

Eventually Amed will be replaced in the middle of the infield.

Gimenez is now etched in stone...which at the moment leaves Arias and Rocchio. If both of them are the real deal, which of the three doesn't play MIF?

Obviously not Gimenez.

Arias is 6-1, 215. Rocchio is 5-10, 170...maybe. Which one is moving to first base or corner OF?

In your world, apparently none of them are playing, so who cares? Sounds like you're certain the organization is keeping the veteran who's approaching free agency and every example of the organization trading away veterans that are approaching free agency is not "remotely close."

Too much young talent isn't a problem. It's great.

If one of those young guys grabs a hold of the position and refuses to let go, like Kwan, OGon and Gime did this year, that's awesome. Lock it up and then figure out where else you need to improve the club.

If you have to move someone to another position, it's nice to have those players be shortstops, typically one of the most athletic, high-profile positions. The translation to OF or corner IF (or as we saw with Gimenez, 2B) is easier for them.

Would it surprise me at all to see Rocchio hold down SS, and Arias find some playing time among 3B, 1B and a corner OF spot? Nope. Would it surprise me if this logjam sorts itself out because not all prospects turn into productive major leaguers? Not in the slightest. Would it surprise me if we see a trade happen that sells some prospects to upgrade or address a position on the major league roster? Nope.

 

[CDAV45]

All this back and forth about who will be what. Hard to say which of Arias and Rocchio wins the SS job at this time. It's not hard to say that Arias is more suited to play other positions outside of SS and 2B so.......

Amed's style is what is valued by posters here, not his production because he isn't much above average in that department. His OPS+ is 106. His wRC+ is 103.

You can argue about the intangibles that Amed brings to this team, but those are immeasurable so the effect on the actual results is nothing but theory. One could also theorize that had Arias not broken his hand and settled in that his superior skillset might have helped this team even more. Neither theory is more relevant than the other IMO. One thing that I am confident in is that Amed will not be the starting SS for this organization much longer.

 

[CDAV45]

Don't have to extend him. Let him play it out until one of the kids shows that he is ready. If that happens by mid season, trade Amed at the deadline.

Rocchios wRC+ in 152 PAs in Columbus was 88. Overall at two levels his OPS last season was .755.

Arias wRC+ in his second year in Columbus was 89. Overall at three levels his OPS is .708.

Freeman wRC+ in Columbus was 104. Overall at two levels his OPS is 707.

All have an excuse...injury, concussion, coming off injury, whatever.

But none of them scream ready to be a starter in Cleveland in April.

If you want to point out how this org does things...which many seem to do...ask yourself this.

How many rookies has Tito willingly put into the starting lineup from opening day in his ten years here? The answer is one, Steven Kwan. Not even the great Francisco Lindor, who was far ahead of the three we have.

Naquin got a chance as a platoon bat, but only because Brantley...and Chisenhall...were hurt.

You have to know that this is a BS take and you're doing it to evidently support whatever point it is that you're trying to make. Arias was 21 in 2021 and produced a wRC+ of 115. When he was 19 in A+ he produced a wRC+ of 120. All while being the best defensive SS in the organization. So claiming a broken hand is an "excuse...injury, concussion, coming off injury, whatever" is pointless. It matters and what each player does when they are healthy does too.

In Tito's 10 yrs here he's never had a farm system this rich so your point has no basis. How about we ask you where this team would be this season without playing 16 freakin' rookies?

 

[Derek]

Arias struggled as an 17/18 year old in A ball five years ago. He’s doomed. Get over it, guys.